Use of an individual-based model to forecast the effect of climate change on the dynamics, abundance and geographical range of the pest slug Deroceras reticulatum in the UK

Slugs are serious agricultural pests and their activity is strongly driven by ambient temperature and soil moisture. The strength of this relationship has been shown through the development of a deterministic model, based upon temperature and soil moisture conditions alone, which accurately describes the population dynamics and abundance of Deroceras reticulatum . Because of this strong climatic dependence, slug abundance and dynamics are likely to be affected by climate change. We used a validated individual-based model (IbM) of D. reticulatum , to assess the effects of climate change on the abundance of this species in the UK. Climatic scenarios were based on the UKCIP02 predictions and constructed using the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The IbM of slugs predicted population dynamics at three time slices (2020s, 2050s and 2080s), and two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. The maximum generation number, the number of population peaks, the number of slug-days in each season, the percentage of years when the population passes over a threshold for damage and the percentage of years in which populations go extinct were investigated. Currently, the south-west of the UK has the best conditions for D. reticulatum to thrive, with the north-east of Scotland having the most adverse. By 2080 under both low- and high-emissions scenarios, the north and west of Scotland will have the most favourable conditions for the survival of this species and the east of the UK and Scotland will have the harshest. By 2080 the climate in the north-west of Scotland will become more like the current climate in south-east England, which explains the shift in the pattern of abundance. The north-west of Scotland will have increased slug damage and south-west England and west-Wales will have decreased slug damage with some changes becoming evident by 2020.     

Day-to-day variation in nitrogenase activity of Alnus incana explained by weather variables: a multivariate time series analysis

A modelling system is described that indicates the extent to which day-to-day variations in nitrogenase activity in young Alnus incana (L.) Moench, grown in defined conditions in the field, may be affected by weather conditions both during and prior to the day of measurement. Nitrogenase activity (acetylene reduction activity, ARA) was measured weekly on intact field-grown grey alder (A. incana) plants, 0.15–0.42 m tall at planting, nodulated with Frankia. The measurements were done at noon on two groups of plants in 1987 and on two other groups in 1988. Each group was made up of five or six plants. Seven weather variables: daily sunshine hours, daily mean, maximum and minimum air temperature, daily mean and 1300 h relative humidity, and daily rainfall were used. The relation between log(ARA/leaf area) and the weather variables were analysed using a PLS model (partial least squares projection to latent structures). The advantage of PLS is that it can handle x-variables that are correlated. Data from 1987 were chosen as a training set. Multivariate PLS time series analysis was made by adding, in a stepwise manner, the weather data up to 5 d before the day of measurement. This procedure gave six models with n * 7 x-variables (n= 1–6). With the models from the time series analysis of 1987 data, true predictions of ARA per leaf area were made from weather data 1988 (test set 1) and from ‘early-season’ weather data from 1987 and 1988 (test set 2). The variation in ARA/leaf area could be predicted from the weather conditions. The predictions of the two test sets improved when the weather conditions one and two days before the day of measurements were added to the model. The further addition of weather data from 3 to 5 d before the day of measurement did not improve the model. The good predictions of ARA/leaf area show that the alders responded to the variable weather conditions in the same way in 1988 as in 1987, despite the ten-fold difference in size (leaf area) at the end of the growing season. Among the weather variables, air temperature and the daily sunshine hours were positively correlated to ARA, while relative air humidity and rainfall were negatively correlated to ARA. The daily minimum temperature and rainfall appeared to have least impact on ARA. By use of PLS, we could extract information out of a data set containing highly correlated x-variables, information that is non-accessible with conventional statistical tools such as multiple regression. When making measurements of nitrogenase activities under field conditions, we propose that attention should be paid to the weather conditions on the days preceding the day of measurement. The day-to-day variation in nitrogenase activity is discussed with reference to known effects of stress factors under controlled conditions.     

The influence of shade and clouds on soil water potential: The buffered behavior of hydraulic lift

In the sagebrush/bunchgrass steppe of the North American Great Basin soil water potential has been shown to exhibit diel fluctuations with water potential increasing during the night as a result of water loss from roots in relatively dry soil layers. We hypothesized that environmental conditions promoting low transpiration rates (shading, cloudiness) would cause a net increase in soil water potential as a result of reduced soil water depletion during the day and continuing water efflux from roots during the night. We examined the response of soil water potential to artificial shading in sagebrush/bunchgrass plantings and used a simple model to predict how soil water potential should respond to reduced transpiration. Field measurements of soil water potential indicated that shading reduced daytime soil water depletion, but that the magnitude of the soil water potential increase during the night was related to the magnitude of the soil water potential decline during the preceding day. As a result, shading had little net effect on soil water potential. This behavior was consistent with model results and appears to result from the fact that soil water depletion during the day is largely responsible for creating the water potential gradients that drive nocturnal recharge of the shallow soil layers. The overall effect of such behavior is to buffer the seasonal course of soil water depletion in the rooting zone against day-to-day fluctuations in evapotranspiration. Despite the buffered behavior of soil water potential change, reduced evapotranspiration during light summer rains, and resulting soil water redistribution in the rooting zone, may enhance plant water status to a greater extent that would be expected on the basis of the rainfall received.     

Doppler radar detection of exceptional mass-migration of aphids into Finland

Our objective was to detect mass migrations of insects of economic significance by insect traps and a Doppler weather radar. Migrants were sampled by suction traps, tow nets and light traps in the Helsinki region. We used radar to observe the migrating insects, and trajectories to backtrack mass migrations of aphids (Homoptera, Aphididae) in spring 1988. The aphid migrations were clearly observed in trap catches and by radar. The first migration, mainly involving Euceraphis betulae, occurred on 18 May and was tracked back to northern Poland. The second migration, mainly of Rhopalosiphum padi (a serious pest of small-grain cereals), occurred 3 days later and was tracked back to a large area covering Latvia and western Russia south of St Petersburg. The third migration included both E. betulae and R. padi, and took place on 30 May. It originated from Estonia. Neither trap nor radar data provide exact quantitative information on migrations. Trapping efficiency depends strongly on wind speed and insect size. Radar echo intensity is very strongly related to the sizes of insects in the large volume of air measured, and the sizes are not known accurately. Weather data, especially temperature, can be used in predicting the development of aphids, and air-parcel trajectories in estimating the source areas of migrants. These methods for forecasting aphid migrations, combined with radar observations, are useful for warning purposes and to intensify insect trapping. This would contribute to more efficient agricultural pest management. Received: 11 March 2000 / Revised: 24 April 2000 / Accepted: 26 April 2000     

Influence of weather conditions on fly abundance and its implications for transmission of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus in the North Island of New Zealand

Blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae) and flesh flies (Diptera: Sarcophagidae) are potential vectors of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) in New Zealand. The associations between habitat and weather factors on the abundance of these flies were investigated. Between October 1999 and June 2001, flies were trapped on open pasture and in dense vegetation patches on farmland in the Himatangi area of the North Island. Five calliphorid species were trapped commonly at scrub edges and the most abundant sarcophagid, Oxysarcodexia varia Walker, was trapped mainly on open pasture. An abundance peak of O. varia was probably associated with the occurrence of a rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) outbreak in the study area. Overall abundance of flies varied according to habitat and species, and species numbers differed between seasons and years. The all-day minimum temperature 3 weeks before trapping was a significant variable in all models of fly abundance, whereas average rainfall did not affect fly abundance. The all-day temperature range was significant only for O. varia. The influence of other climatic factors varied between fly species. Climate dependent variations in fly abundance may contribute to the risk of transmission of RHD, which occurred intermittently on the site during the study period.     

Some effects of inclement weather conditions on the survival and condition of bull-headed shrike nestlings

Inclement weather struck Japan in 1993, permitting a natural experiment for examining the effect of weather conditions on nesting success and nestling growth of the bull-headed shrike, Lanius bucephalus. Aspects of the breeding biology of bull-headed shrikes in relation to weather conditions and timing of breeding in 1992 and 1993 were examined. The two breeding seasons were divided into two periods, early and late, in each year. While the probability of nest survival in nestling stages during both periods was almost equal, the probability of nest survival in the egg stage during the early period was significantly lower than that during the late period. In 1993, the probability of nestling survival during the late period was significantly lower than during the early period; the late period had larger fluctuations of precipitation and was colder than the same period in 1992. The number of disappeared nestlings positively correlated with mean precipitation per day. The greater part of the disappeared nestlings was the lightest in each brood. Late breeders fledged lighter young than the early breeders. Although shrikes adopted hatching asynchrony, the late breeders could not surmount the unpredictable inclement weather in 1993.     

Bt棉叶对棉铃虫抗虫性的时空变化及气象因素的影响

用叶片喂饲法,测定了转Bt基因棉不同叶位、不同生长时期的叶片对棉铃虫初孵幼虫抗虫性的时空变化,同时测定了大田和室内不同气象条件下生长的侧枝和苗期叶片对棉铃虫抗虫性的影响。结果表明：转Bt基因棉R₁₉-137株系主茎第2～10叶的抗虫性最高,初孵幼虫处理5天后的平均死亡率为97.0%～100%,为害级别在1.0～1.1级;第11～16叶的抗虫性明显下降,平均死亡率为35.6%～67.6%,存活幼虫以2龄为主。7月下旬、8月下旬测定了不同部位侧枝叶片的抗虫性,平均死亡率分别为30.9%～44.9%和10.0%～30.0%,抗虫效果进一步下降。试验结果还表明,在室内外不同气候条件下生长的Bt棉叶片的抗虫性有显著差异。讨论了Bt棉抗虫性时空变化的可能原因与Bt棉推广中气候条件的重要性。     

物候模式识别在生态动力预报中的应用

以物候资料和数值天气预报模式输出图为基础,应用模式识别和数理逻辑判断的自动化技术,阐述制作生态动力预报的原理、方法和步骤.生态动力预报技术使传统的物候学在气象学和自动化技术支持下,扩展应用到生态预报业务领域,使物候预报从单站预报阶段发展到区域预报阶段,同时促进了农业气象预报方法从定性、统计阶段向动力预报阶段发展.该方法在农作物播种、长势、灌溉与施肥、病虫害防治等方面具有广阔的应用前景.     

Effects of weather on avian migration at proposed ridgeline wind energy sites

With the popularity of wind energy increasing globally, concerns surfaced in the 1980s as to the potential adverse effects of wind turbines on migrating birds. Understanding how weather conditions influence passage rates can help determine the potential for increased avian–turbine collisions. Using vertical and horizontal mounted marine radars, raptor stand watch observations, and portable handheld weather stations, we studied how temperature, cloud cover, barometric pressure, wind direction, and wind speed affected avian passage rates and height of migrants over 3 ridges (Wartenbe, North Dokie, and South Dokie) being developed for wind energy in northern British Columbia. Using an Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), we determined that a reduced model combining wind speed, barometric pressure, and cloud cover was best at explaining and predicting higher passage rates (expressed as no. birds/hr) in the fall migration for both diurnal and nocturnal migrants. Wind speed proved the most important predictor of passage rates for spring nocturnal migrants and a combination of cloud cover, temperature, and wind direction for diurnal spring migrants. Wind speed also predicted decreases in flight altitude among nocturnal migrants but increased altitude in diurnal migrants. This information coupled with migration timing and topographical areas of higher migrant activity can be useful to wind energy proponents who wish to mitigate collision risk with migrating birds. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Patterns of activity and fatality of migratory bats at a wind energy facility in Alberta,Canada

Studying migratory behavior of bats is challenging. Thus, most information regarding their migratory behavior is anecdotal. Recently, however, fatalities of migratory bats at some wind energy facilities across North America have provided the opportunity and impetus to study bat migration at fine spatial and temporal scales. Using acoustic monitoring and carcass searches, we examined temporal and spatial variation in activity levels and fatality rates of bats at a wind energy facility in southern Alberta, Canada. Our goals were to better understand the influence of weather variables and turbine location on the activity and fatality of hoary bats (Lasiurus cinereus) and silver-haired bats (Lasionycteris noctivagans), and to use that understanding to predict variation in fatality rates at wind energy facilities and recommend measures to reduce fatalities. Overall activity of migratory bats and of silver-haired bats increased in low wind speeds and warm ambient temperatures, and was reduced when the wind was from the North or Northeast, whereas hoary bat activity increased with falling barometric pressure. Fatalities of migratory bats in general increased with increased activity of migratory bats, increased moon illumination, and falling barometric pressure and were influenced by the interaction between barometric pressure change and activity. Fatalities of silver-haired bats increased with increased activity, moon illumination, and winds from the south-east. Hoary bat fatalities increased with falling barometric pressure. Our results indicate that both the activity and fatality of migratory bats are affected by weather variables, but that species differ in their responses to environmental conditions. Spatially, fatalities were not influenced by the position of turbines within a turbine row, but were influenced by the location of turbines within the facility. Our findings have implications for our understanding of bat migration and efforts to reduce fatalities at wind energy facilities. To maximize the reduction of bat fatalities, operators of wind energy facilities could incorporate migratory bats' response to environmental variables, such as barometric pressure and fraction of moon illuminated, into their existing mitigation strategies. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.