Population dynamics of a tree-dwelling aphid: regulation and density-independent processes

1. A population of the Turkey-oak aphid ( Myzocallis boerneri Stroyan) was sampled at approximately weekly intervals on two Turkey-oak trees for 19 years.
2. On one tree (A), the aphids exhibited a distinct seasonal pattern with a spring increase, summer decrease, early autumn increase, and late autumn decline. On the other tree (B) the aphids remained at low densities after the decrease in summer.
3. On tree A, significant undercompensating density dependence occurred during all periods of the seasonal population development, and their strength varied little during the course of the season. On tree B, significant density dependence compensated exactly for increase, but appeared only after the decrease in summer when the population remained at very low densities for the rest of the season.
4. Density-independent weather variables affected the population dynamics very little. Their influence was marginally significant only at very low densities when the aphids were regulated exactly by compensating density-dependent factors.
5. The results suggest a curvilinear density dependence, with strong regulation at low densities, and weak at high densities. That is, this aphid was most regulated not at the peak but at the trough densities.     

Meteorological effects on the daily activity patterns of tabanid biting flies in northern Queensland,Australia

Information on the daily activity patterns of tabanid flies is important in the development of strategies that decrease the risk of pathogens transmitted by them. In addition, this information is useful to maximize numbers of tabanids trapped during short‐term studies and to target feeding behavior studies of certain tabanid species to their times of peak activity. The current study examined the effects of various meteorological factors on the daily activity patterns of common tropical species of tabanids in north Queensland. Each species studied responded differently to weather factors. Tabanus townsvilli Ricardo (Diptera: Tabanidae) was most active during late morning and early afternoon, whereas Pseudotabanus silvester (Bergroth) and Tabanus pallipennis Macquart were most active in the late afternoon. Tabanus dorsobimaculatus Macquart was most active in the morning and early afternoon. Data on daily activity patterns of tabanid flies indicates that in an area such as Townsville, North Queensland, where several species of tabanid are present concurrently in high numbers, the overlapping periods of high activity for these species indicate a high risk of pathogen transmission for most of the day (10.00–19.00 hours). Similarly, because each species responds differently to weather variables, only extreme weather conditions are likely to inhibit activity of all species. These data also indicate that for maximal results, trapping and feeding behavior studies should be tailored to the preferred activity period of the species under investigation.     

Extreme heat events and the vulnerability of endemic montane fishes to climate change

Identifying how close species live to their physiological thermal maxima is essential to understand historical warm‐edge elevational limits of montane faunas and forecast upslope shifts caused by future climate change. We used laboratory experiments to quantify the thermal tolerance and acclimation potential of four fishes (Notropis leuciodus, N. rubricroceus, Etheostoma rufilineatum, E. chlorobranchium) that are endemic to the southern Appalachian Mountains (USA), exhibit different historical elevational limits, and represent the two most species‐rich families in the region. All‐subsets selection of linear regression models using AIC_c indicated that species, acclimation temperature, collection location and month, and the interaction between species and acclimation temperature were important predictors of thermal maxima (T_max), which ranged from 28.5 to 37.2°C. Next, we implemented water temperature models and stochastic weather generation to characterize the magnitude and frequency of extreme heat events (T_extreme) under historical and future climate scenarios across 25 379 stream reaches in the upper Tennessee River system. Lastly, we used environmental niche models to compare warming tolerances (acclimation‐corrected T_max minus T_extreme) between historically occupied versus unoccupied reaches. Historical warming tolerances, ranging from +2.2 to +10.9°C, increased from low to high elevation and were positive for all species, suggesting that T_max does not drive warm‐edge (low elevation) range limits. Future warming tolerances were lower (?1.2 to +9.3°C) but remained positive for all species under the direst warming scenario except for a small proportion of reaches historically occupied by E. rufilineatum, indicating that T_max and acclimation potentials of southern Appalachian minnows and darters are adequate to survive future heat waves. We caution concluding that these species are invulnerable to 21st century warming because sublethal thermal physiology remains poorly understood. Integrating physiological sensitivity and warming exposure demonstrates a general and fine‐grained approach to assess climate change vulnerability for freshwater organisms across physiographically diverse riverscapes.     

bioRad: biological analysis and visualization of weather radar data

Weather surveillance radars are increasingly used for monitoring the movements and abundances of animals in the airspace. However, analysis of weather radar data remains a specialised task that can be technically challenging. Major hurdles are the difficulty of accessing and visualising radar data on a software platform familiar to ecologists and biologists, processing the low‐level data into products that are biologically meaningful, and summarizing these results in standardized measures. To overcome these hurdles, we developed the open source R package bioRad, which provides a toolbox for accessing, visualizing and analyzing weather radar data for biological studies. It provides functionality to access low‐level radar data, process these data into meaningful biological information on animal speeds and directions at different altitudes in the atmosphere, visualize these biological extractions, and calculate further summary statistics. The package aims to standardize methods for extracting and reporting biological signals from weather radars. Here we describe a roadmap for analyzing weather radar data using bioRad. We also define weather radar equivalents for familiar measures used in the field of migration ecology, such as migration traffic rates, and recommend several good practices for reporting these measures. The bioRad package integrates with low‐level data from both the European radar network (OPERA) and the radar network of the United States (NEXRAD). bioRad aims to make weather radar studies in ecology easier and more reproducible, allowing for better inter‐comparability of studies.     

Haemoglobin concentration and body condition of nestling Great Tits Parus major : a comparison of first and second broods in two contrasting seasons

The physiological condition of nestling altricial birds depends on the quantity and quality of food delivered to them by parents. One indicator of the condition of Great Tit Parus major nestlings is the haemoglobin concentration in their blood. The present study demonstrates the influence of weather conditions (temperature and rainfall) on nestling haemoglobin concentrations during two consecutive breeding seasons in two different habitat types (parkland vs. woodland) in the city of Łódź in Central Poland. This influence probably results from the effects of weather on the trophic base of the Tits. Dry, hot weather strongly affected bush and herbal foliage later in the breeding season (mid-June to mid-July) in 2006, presumably by interfering with the development of herbivorous arthropod populations. This in turn caused food shortages for second broods of Great Tits, which resulted in nestlings having low haemoglobin levels. In the following year, temperature was on average lower, and rainfall was regular but not very heavy. These conditions enabled the development of arthropod assemblages, and the trophic base for birds was much richer. Haemoglobin concentrations in the blood of nestlings from second broods were significantly higher than those of first broods and, unexpectedly, second-brood nestlings in 2007 were on average in better physiological state than first-brood nestlings in 2006 in both habitats. The relationship between haemoglobin concentration, brood category and year was very similar to that for nestling body mass. However, it was independent of both body mass and brood size. In some years and under certain conditions, second broods can be more successful than first broods.     

Influence of weather on the moth catches of Helicoverpa armigera at various cotton-based agro-ecological sites

Pheromones are innate products, exploited for direct population manipulation in the trapping of precise pest density. They demonstrate feasibility and efficiency against Helicopverpa armigera at five different cotton-based agro-ecological sites: river site, vegetable farm, orchard, clean cultivation site, and forest. The data were recorded at 15–20 day intervals from 8 September 2004 to 1 December 2006. The Number of moths caught during the study period demonstrated that the vegetable farm showed the maximum population of moths per trap (0.54), followed by the orchard (0.29), forest (0.19), river (0.15), and clean cultivation site (0.12). During 2004, rainfall (in the orchard and clean cultivation site) and relative humidity (in the clean cultivation site) showed positive and significant correlation with the number of moths caught. During 2005, temperatures played a significant and positive role in population fluctuation of the pest almost at all the selected sites; the minimum temperature was recorded at the vegetable farm and the average temperature was found at the forest site. Rainfall also showed a significant and positive correlation with trapped moths in the vegetable farm, orchard, and clean cultivation site. During 2006, relative humidity showed a significant and negative correlation with the trapped population at all the sites except the river site. Rainfall showed a negative and significant correlation with the pest at the forest site. Relative humidity was the most important aspect at 8.93% causing variation in the trapped population followed by maximum temperature (5.7%), rainfall (1.63%), average temperature (0.74%), and minimum temperature (0.56%).     

What limits fire? An examination of drivers of burnt area in Southern Africa

The factors controlling the extent of fire in Africa south of the equator were investigated using moderate resolution (500 m) satellite-derived burned area maps and spatial data on the environmental factors thought to affect burnt area. A random forest regression tree procedure was used to determine the relative importance of each factor in explaining the burned area fraction and to address hypotheses concerned with human and climatic influences on the drivers of burnt area. The model explained 68% of the variance in burnt area. Tree cover, rainfall in the previous 2 years, and rainfall seasonality were the most important predictors. Human activities – represented by grazing, roads per unit area, population density, and cultivation fraction – were also shown to affect burnt area, but only in parts of the continent with specific climatic conditions, and often in ways counter to the prevailing wisdom that more human activity leads to more fire. The analysis found no indication that ignitions were limiting total burnt area on the continent, and most of the spatial variation was due to variation in fuel load and moisture. Split conditions from the regression tree identified (i) low rainfall regions, where fire is rare; (ii) regions where fire is under human control; and (iii) higher rainfall regions where burnt area is determined by rainfall seasonality. This study provides insights into the physical, climatic, and human drivers of fire and their relative importance across southern Africa, and represents the beginnings of a predictive framework for burnt area.     

Nitrous oxide fluxes from corn fields: on-farm assessment of the amount and timing of nitrogen fertilizer

Nitrogen fertilization is considered as an important source of atmospheric N₂O emission. A seven site‐year on‐farm field experiment was conducted at Ottawa and Guelph, ON and Saint‐Valentin, QC, Canada to characterize the affect of the amount and timing of N fertilizer on N₂O emission in corn (Zea mays L.) production. Using the static chamber method, gas samples were collected for 28‐days after preplant and 28‐days after sidedress fertilization at the seven site‐year, resulting in 14 monitoring periods. For both methods of fertilization, peak N₂O flux and cumulative emission increased with the amount of N applied, with rates ranging from 30 to 900 μg N m^?2 h^?1. Depending on N amount and time of application, cumulative emission varied from 0.05 to 2.42 kg N ha^?1, equivalent to 0.03% to 1.45% of the N fertilizer applied. Differences in N₂O emission peaks among fertilizer treatments were clearly separated in 13 out of 14 monitoring periods. Total N₂O emissions may have been underestimated compared with annual monitoring in 10 out of the 49 cases because the monitoring period ended before N₂O efflux returned to the baseline level. The flux of N₂O was negligible when soil mineral N in the 0–15 cm layer was < 20 mg N kg^?1. While rainfall stimulated emission, soil temperature > 15 °C was likely the driving force responsible for the higher levels of N₂O found for sidedress than preplant application methods. However, caution must be taken when interpreting these later results as preplant fertilization may have continuously stimulated N₂O emissions after the 28‐days monitoring period, especially in situations where N₂O effluxes have not fallen back to their baseline levels. Increasing fertilizer rates from 90 to 150 kg N ha^?1 resulted in slight increases in yields, but doubled cumulative N₂O emissions.     

Population ecology and conservation of endangered megafauna: the case of European bison in Białowieża Primeval Forest, Poland

The European bison Bison bonasus is an example of nearly extinct 'charismatic megafauna'. The Białowieża Primeval Forest in Poland is among the few places where they still live in the wild. The management of this free-living herd has to reconcile to the conservation needs of a species and the economic and environmental objectives of their habitat: protected as well as commercial woodlands of Białowieża. Here we present a detailed account of the population development and analyse variation in vital rates based on monitoring that started in 1952 and continued until 2002. The population was allowed to grow freely until 1970, when removal started with the aim to stabilize population size. We found that recruitment rate, but not mortality, was density dependent, suggesting that the population density was not very high relative to resource levels. Winters with much snow and cold temperature had a strong negative effect on survival. May temperature of the previous year positively affected recruitment rates. Masting (oak seed) also positively affected recruitment rates, which provides a rare account of masting affecting the performance of a large ruminant. Sex ratio of offspring was even and was not strongly affected by density or climate. We use an age-structured matrix model to show how this knowledge of intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting vital rates may help managerial decisions by providing explicit links between given environmental conditions and the population growth rates.     

Use of an individual-based model to forecast the effect of climate change on the dynamics, abundance and geographical range of the pest slug Deroceras reticulatum in the UK

Slugs are serious agricultural pests and their activity is strongly driven by ambient temperature and soil moisture. The strength of this relationship has been shown through the development of a deterministic model, based upon temperature and soil moisture conditions alone, which accurately describes the population dynamics and abundance of Deroceras reticulatum . Because of this strong climatic dependence, slug abundance and dynamics are likely to be affected by climate change. We used a validated individual-based model (IbM) of D. reticulatum , to assess the effects of climate change on the abundance of this species in the UK. Climatic scenarios were based on the UKCIP02 predictions and constructed using the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The IbM of slugs predicted population dynamics at three time slices (2020s, 2050s and 2080s), and two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. The maximum generation number, the number of population peaks, the number of slug-days in each season, the percentage of years when the population passes over a threshold for damage and the percentage of years in which populations go extinct were investigated. Currently, the south-west of the UK has the best conditions for D. reticulatum to thrive, with the north-east of Scotland having the most adverse. By 2080 under both low- and high-emissions scenarios, the north and west of Scotland will have the most favourable conditions for the survival of this species and the east of the UK and Scotland will have the harshest. By 2080 the climate in the north-west of Scotland will become more like the current climate in south-east England, which explains the shift in the pattern of abundance. The north-west of Scotland will have increased slug damage and south-west England and west-Wales will have decreased slug damage with some changes becoming evident by 2020.