天气变化对人口死亡率的影响——以广州市和上海市为例

人口死亡率与天气有一定的关系,以广州、上海两市１０个冬季和夏季的逐日死亡资料和气象资料,利用统计学和天气学方法得出,在最高温度达３４℃的“热日”,各类死亡数明显增多;而冬季死亡数随最低温度的下降而略有增加;广州夏季最大死亡率出现在“阴凉型”天气,而上海则是在“晴热型”天气,且上海死亡率受最高温度的影响大于广州;广州和上海冬季死亡率最大的天气均是“严寒型”,但广州死亡率受低温的影响要比上海大．在其他气象要素相似的情况下,风速对死亡率有一定的影响．     

Demographic responses to weather fluctuations are context dependent in a long‐lived amphibian

Weather fluctuations have been demonstrated to affect demographic traits in many species. In long‐lived organisms, their impact on adult survival might be buffered by the evolution of traits that reduce variation in interannual adult survival. For example, skipping breeding is an effective behavioral mechanism that may limit yearly variation in adult survival when harsh weather conditions occur; however, this in turn would likely lead to strong variation in recruitment. Yet, only a few studies to date have examined the impact of weather variation on survival, recruitment and breeding probability simultaneously in different populations of the same species. To fill this gap, we studied the impact of spring temperatures and spring rainfall on survival, on reproductive skipping behavior and on recruitment in five populations of a long‐lived amphibian, the yellow‐bellied toad (Bombina variegata). Based on capture–recapture data, our findings demonstrate that survival depends on interactions between age, population and weather variation. Varying weather conditions in the spring result in strong variation in the survival of immature toads, whereas they have little effect on adult toads. Breeding probability depends on both the individual's previous reproductive status and on the weather conditions during the current breeding season, leading to high interannual variation in recruitment. Crucially, we found that the impact of weather variation on demographic traits is largely context dependent and may thus differ sharply between populations. Our results suggest that studies predicting the impact of climate change on population dynamics should be taken with caution when the relationship between climate and demographic traits is established using only one population or few populations. We therefore highly recommend further research that includes surveys replicated in a substantial number of populations to account for context‐dependent variation in demographic processes.     

Flyway‐scale analysis reveals that the timing of migration in wading birds is becoming later

1. Understanding the implications of climate change for migratory animals is paramount for establishing how best to conserve them. A large body of evidence suggests that birds are migrating earlier in response to rising temperatures, but many studies focus on single populations of model species.
2. Migratory patterns at large spatial scales may differ from those occurring in single populations, for example because of individuals dispersing outside of study areas. Furthermore, understanding phenological trends across species is vital because we need a holistic understanding of how climate change affects wildlife, especially as rates of temperature change vary globally.
3. The life cycles of migratory wading birds cover vast latitudinal gradients, making them particularly susceptible to climate change and, therefore, ideal model organisms for understanding its effects. Here, we implement a novel application of changepoint detection analysis to investigate changes in the timing of migration in waders at a flyway scale using a thirteen‐year citizen science dataset (eBird) and determine the influence of changes in weather conditions on large‐scale migratory patterns.
4. In contrast to most previous research, our results suggest that migration is getting later in both spring and autumn. We show that rates of change were faster in spring than autumn in both the Afro‐Palearctic and Nearctic flyways, but that weather conditions in autumn, not in spring, predicted temporal changes in the corresponding season. Birds migrated earlier in autumn when temperatures increased rapidly, and later with increasing headwinds.
5. One possible explanation for our results is that migration is becoming later due to northward range shifts, which means that a higher proportion of birds travel greater distances and therefore take longer to reach their destinations. Our findings underline the importance of considering spatial scale when investigating changes in the phenology of migratory bird species.

     

A study of Quercus pollen in the Derby area, UK

The major allergenic pollen prevalent in the Derby air in May is Quercus pollen which has been monitored volumetrically from 1970–1997. Quercus pollen levels in Derby are increasing, showing an established long term trend, with 1995 being an exceptionally high year. There is now an earlier start date and a longer seasonal duration. The mean Quercus diurnal periodicity for 1991–1997 shows a peak at 15.00 hours.A detailed study of the 1990–1997 seasons established that a maximum temperature of 20 °C or above, at the usual time of flowering, occasions the start of the Quercus pollen season. Average May temperature and drought in the previous June and July are important factors in determining Quercus pollen totals. Predictions for the forthcoming seasons were produced which compared favourably with the actual pollen totals.     

Investigating connectivity and seasonal differences in wind assistance in the migration of Common Sandpipers

Many migratory bird species have undergone recent population declines, but there is considerable variation in trends between species and between populations employing different migratory routes. Understanding species-specific migratory behaviours is therefore of critical importance for their conservation. The Common Sandpiper Actitis hypoleucos is an Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird species whose European populations are in decline. We fitted geolocators to individuals breeding in England or wintering in Senegal to determine their migration routes and breeding or non-breeding locations. We used these geolocator data in combination with previously published data from Scottish breeding birds to determine the distributions and migratory connectivity of breeding (English and Scottish) and wintering (Senegalese) populations of the Common Sandpiper, and used simulated random migrations to investigate wind assistance during autumn and spring migration. We revealed that the Common Sandpipers tagged in England spent the winter in West Africa, and that at least some birds wintering in Senegal bred in Scandinavia; this provides insights into the links between European breeding populations and their wintering grounds. Furthermore, birds tagged in England, Scotland and Senegal overlapped considerably in their migration routes and wintering locations, meaning that local breeding populations could be buffered against habitat change, but susceptible to large-scale environmental changes. These findings also suggest that contrasting population trends in England and Scotland are unlikely to be the result of population-specific migration routes and wintering regions. Finally, we found that birds used wind to facilitate their migration in autumn, but less so in spring, when the wind costs associated with their migrations were higher than expected at random. This was despite the wind costs of simulated migrations being significantly lower in spring than in autumn. Indeed, theory suggests that individuals are under greater time pressures in spring than in autumn because of the time constraints associated with reproduction.     

Complex variation in habitat selection strategies among individuals driven by extrinsic factors

Understanding behavioral strategies employed by animals to maximize fitness in the face of environmental heterogeneity, variability, and uncertainty is a central aim of animal ecology. Flexibility in behavior may be key to how animals respond to climate and environmental change. Using a mechanistic modeling framework for simultaneously quantifying the effects of habitat preference and intrinsic movement on space use at the landscape scale, we investigate how movement and habitat selection vary among individuals and years in response to forage quality–quantity tradeoffs, environmental conditions, and variable annual climate. We evaluated the association of dynamic, biotic forage resources and static, abiotic landscape features with large grazer movement decisions in an experimental landscape, where forage resources vary in response to prescribed burning, grazing by a native herbivore, the plains bison (Bison bison bison), and a continental climate. Our goal was to determine how biotic and abiotic factors mediate bison movement decisions in a nutritionally heterogeneous grassland. We integrated spatially explicit relocations of GPS‐collared bison and extensive vegetation surveys to relate movement paths to grassland attributes over a time period spanning a regionwide drought and average weather conditions. Movement decisions were affected by foliar crude content and low stature forage biomass across years with substantial interannual variation in the magnitude of selection for forage quality and quantity. These differences were associated with interannual differences in climate and growing conditions from the previous year. Our results provide experimental evidence for understanding how the forage quality–quantity tradeoff and fine‐scale topography drives fine‐scale movement decisions under varying environmental conditions.     

Intrinsic and extrinsic determinants of mountain pine beetle population growth

1 Mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae populations have large, economically significant outbreaks. Density dependence and environmental variability are expected to have important effects on their dynamics. We analysed time series data from an outbreak in the 1930s to determine the relative importance of population density and environmental variability on local population growth rates.
2 Resource depletion occurred rapidly at the scale of 0.4 ha and population growth rates were strongly density dependent. Annual environmental changes did not have detectable effects on population growth rates, leading to the conclusion that intrinsic processes influenced local population density more than extrinsic factors during this outbreak.
3 Our calculated value of r _max (1.16) does not suggest intrinsically cyclic population dynamics. Our estimate of r _max and density dependence will be useful in developing applied models of mountain pine beetle outbreaks, and the subsequent evaluation of management strategies.     

Modeling daily flowering probabilities: expected impact of climate change on Japanese cherry phenology

Understanding the drivers of phenological events is vital for forecasting species’ responses to climate change. We developed flexible Bayesian survival regression models to assess a 29‐year, individual‐level time series of flowering phenology from four taxa of Japanese cherry trees (Prunus spachiana, Prunus × yedoensis, Prunus jamasakura, and Prunus lannesiana), from the Tama Forest Cherry Preservation Garden in Hachioji, Japan. Our modeling framework used time‐varying (chill and heat units) and time‐invariant (slope, aspect, and elevation) factors. We found limited differences among taxa in sensitivity to chill, but earlier flowering taxa, such as P. spachiana, were more sensitive to heat than later flowering taxa, such as P. lannesiana. Using an ensemble of three downscaled regional climate models under the A1B emissions scenario, we projected shifts in flowering timing by 2100. Projections suggest that each taxa will flower about 30 days earlier on average by 2100 with 2–6 days greater uncertainty around the species mean flowering date. Dramatic shifts in the flowering times of cherry trees may have implications for economically important cultural festivals in Japan and East Asia. The survival models used here provide a mechanistic modeling approach and are broadly applicable to any time‐to‐event phenological data, such as plant leafing, bird arrival time, and insect emergence. The ability to explicitly quantify uncertainty, examine phenological responses on a fine time scale, and incorporate conditions leading up to an event may provide future insight into phenologically driven changes in carbon balance and ecological mismatches of plants and pollinators in natural populations and horticultural crops.     

区域气候变化情景下气候变率对我国水稻产量影响的模拟研究

利用中国随机天气模型将中国区域气候模式ＲＣＭ与作物模式ＣＥＲＥＳ－Ｒｉｃｅ相连接,模拟了３种气候变率（０％,１０％,２０％）水平下未来气候（２０５０年,假定此时ＣＯ２浓度为５５０ｍｇ／Ｌ）对我国水稻主产区（广州,长沙,南京）灌溉水稻和雨养水稻在考虑ＣＯ２肥效与否条件下的产量,模拟结果表明;（１）气候变率对水稻产量的影响因经营方式和研究地区的不同而有差异,对灌溉水稻来说,气候变率对其产量有负面影响,