不同模型对拟合大兴安岭林火发生与气象因素关系的适用性

选用符合林火发生数据结构的Poisson和零膨胀Poisson(ZIP)模型对大兴安岭林区1980—2005年间林火发生与气象因素关系进行建模分析,并与普通最小二乘回归(ordinary least squares,OLS)方法的结果进行了对比分析.结果表明:OLS模型对研究区域林火发生与气象因素关系的拟合结果较差(R2=0.215);Poisson和ZIP模型的拟合效果较好,具有较好的火灾次数预测能力,且ZIP模型的预测能力高于Poisson模型.运用AIC和Vuong检验方法对Poisson和ZIP模型的拟合水平进行进一步检验,表明ZIP模型的数据拟合度优于Poisson模型.     

辽宁省城市热岛强度特征及等级划分

根据气象站资料累积时间、资料连续性、站点位置、城郊站间距离、站点数量、迁站情况,对辽宁省61个气象站进行筛选,并利用选出的城郊代表站的月和年气温数据,分析了辽宁省热岛强度的变化范围及幅度,确定了热岛强度等级.结果表明:辽宁省铁岭站、大连站、鞍山站、朝阳站、丹东站、锦州站6个气象站可作为城市气温的代表站,台安站等18个气象站可作为郊区气温的代表站;1980-2009年,辽宁省6个代表城市的热岛强度年变化不同,除铁岭为微弱下降外,其他5市均表现为上升趋势,铁岭年热岛强度较强,大连年热岛强度较弱;6个代表城市的月热岛强度变化也不同,丹东、锦州、铁岭的月热岛强度呈明显的“U”型分布,6市最大热岛强度均出现在1月,最小热岛强度均出现在5-8月,具有冬季强、夏季弱的特点.6市热岛强度的年、月变化范围分别为0.57～2.15℃和-0.70～4.60℃,年和月热岛强度分别有97.8％和72.3％集中在0.5～2.0℃.辽宁省热岛强度可划分为无、弱、强和极强4个等级.     

70年代以来柑桔灾害性天气综述及防御措施

20世纪 70年代以来 ,我国柑桔 (Ｃｉｔｒｓｒｅｔｉｃｕｌａｔａ)生产有了迅速增长 ,但由于全球气候的变化 ,出现不利于柑桔生长的灾害性天气 ,并有愈演愈烈的趋势 ,给柑桔生产带来了极大的影响。弄清灾害性天气的发生及规律 ,并提出其防御措施 ,对于进一步科学指导柑桔生产 ,完善柑桔与生境的理论 ,都有一定的现实意义。1　灾害性天气1.1　周期性大冻害据统计 ,公元 14 5 0 - 1979年的 5 2 9年中共出现了 79个严重冻害年 ,平均 10年中有 1.5次。从顺昌县及福建省的气象资料看出 ,约 9～ 10年有 1次周期性的大冻害 ,并在福建省几个县市均有…     

Plasticity and cross‐tolerance to heterogeneous environments: divergent stress responses co‐evolved in an African fruit fly

Plastic adjustments of physiological tolerance to a particular stressor can result in fitness benefits for resistance that might manifest not only in that same environment but also be advantageous when faced with alternative environmental stressors, a phenomenon termed ‘cross‐tolerance’. The nature and magnitude of cross‐tolerance responses can provide important insights into the underlying genetic architecture, potential constraints on or versatility of an organism's stress responses. In this study, we tested for cross‐tolerance to a suite of abiotic factors that likely contribute to setting insect population dynamics and geographic range limits: heat, cold, desiccation and starvation resistance in adult Ceratitis rosa following acclimation to all these isolated individual conditions prior to stress assays. Traits of stress resistance scored included critical thermal (activity) limits, chill coma recovery time (CCRT), heat knockdown time (HKDT), desiccation and starvation resistance. In agreement with other studies, we found that acclimation to one stress typically increased resistance for that same stress experienced later in life. A more novel outcome, however, is that here we also found substantial evidence for cross‐tolerance. For example, we found an improvement in heat tolerance (critical thermal maxima, CT_max) following starvation or desiccation hardening and improved desiccation resistance following cold acclimation, indicating pronounced cross‐tolerance to these environmental stressors for the traits examined. We also found that two different traits of the same stress resistance differed in their responsiveness to the same stress conditions (e.g. HKDT was less cross‐resistant than CT_max). The results of this study have two major implications that are of broader importance: (i) that these traits likely co‐evolved to cope with diverse or simultaneous stressors, and (ii) that a set of common underlying physiological mechanisms might exist between apparently divergent stress responses in this species. This species may prove to be a valuable model for future work on the evolutionary and mechanistic basis of cross‐tolerance.     

Impact of moderate and extreme climate change scenarios on growth,morphological features,photosynthesis, and fruit production of hot pepper

Horticultural crop production and changes in physiological aspects during the growing season may be affected by climate change factors (CC), which include increased temperature and the associated doubling or tripling of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. However, the potential effects are complex and many parameters might impact on the observed effects. To evaluate the effects of CC, the growth, yield, fruit characteristics, photosynthetic traits, and morphological characteristics of hot peppers were investigated. The hot peppers were grown under two CC scenarios, with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 4.5 (Temp.; +3.4°C, CO₂ conc.; 540 μmol/mol, Precipitation +17.3%) and RCP 8.5 (Temp.; +6.0°C and CO₂ conc.; 940 μmol/mol, Precipitation +20.3%), respectively, using extreme weather simulators. This was compared with existing weather conditions occurring in Jeonju, South Korea in terms of air temperature, relative humidity, radiation, and precipitation. Overall, the plant height showed the highest under moderate CC conditions (RCP 4.5) among all the treatments tested. The number of leaves in the RCP 8.5 condition showed 7,739/plants, which was 2.2 times higher than that of the control. In addition, fruit shape was shortened and percentage dry matter was also the highest. The yield of hot pepper in the CC RCP 4.5 and 8.5 conditions were decreased by 21.5% and 89.2% when compared with that of the control, respectively. The days to harvest in the condition of CC scenarios were shortened from 5 to 13 compared with that of control, predominantly due to the increased air temperature. The results indicated that the severe RCP CC scenarios made reduction in the yields and negative affection on the fruit qualities. Overall, hot pepper was tolerant of mild CC scenarios of temperature × CO₂ but was significantly affected by more extreme CC interacting parameter concentrations (or similar).