Assessing the impact of climate variation on survival in vertebrate populations

Abstract The impact of the ongoing rapid climate change on natural systems is a major issue for human societies. An important challenge for ecologists is to identify the climatic factors that drive temporal variation in demographic parameters, and, ultimately, the dynamics of natural populations. The analysis of long-term monitoring data at the individual scale is often the only available approach to estimate reliably demographic parameters of vertebrate populations. We review statistical procedures used in these analyses to study links between climatic factors and survival variation in vertebrate populations. We evaluated the efficiency of various statistical procedures from an analysis of survival in a population of white stork, Ciconia ciconia, a simulation study and a critical review of 78 papers published in the ecological literature. We identified six potential methodological problems: (i) the use of statistical models that are not well-suited to the analysis of long-term monitoring data collected at the individual scale; (ii) low ratios of number of statistical units to number of candidate climatic covariates; (iii) collinearity among candidate climatic covariates; (iv) the use of statistics, to assess statistical support for climatic covariates effects, that deal poorly with unexplained variation in survival; (v) spurious detection of effects due to the co-occurrence of trends in survival and the climatic covariate time series; and (vi) assessment of the magnitude of climatic effects on survival using measures that cannot be compared across case studies. The critical review of the ecological literature revealed that five of these six methodological problems were often poorly tackled. As a consequence we concluded that many of these studies generated hypotheses but only few provided solid evidence for impacts of climatic factors on survival or reliable measures of the magnitude of such impacts. We provide practical advice to solve efficiently most of the methodological problems identified. The only frequent issue that still lacks a straightforward solution was the low ratio of the number of statistical units to the number of candidate climatic covariates. In the perspective of increasing this ratio and therefore of producing more robust analyses of the links between climate and demography, we suggest leads to improve the procedures for designing field protocols and selecting a set of candidate climatic covariates. Finally, we present recent statistical methods with potential interest for assessing the impact of climatic factors on demographic parameters.     

The mid‐season crash in aphid populations: why and how does it occur?

Abstract. 1. Aphid populations on agricultural crops in temperature regions collapse over a few days from peak numbers to local extinction soon after mid‐summer (e.g. mid‐July in the U.K.). The populations recover 6–8 weeks later. There is anecdotal or incidental evidence of an equivalent mid‐season population crash of aphids on grasses and forbs in natural vegetation. 2. The ecological factors causing the mid‐season population crash of aphids include a decline in plant nutritional quality and increased natural enemy pressure as the season progresses. Extreme weather events, e.g. severe rainstorms, can precipitate the crash but weather conditions are not a consistent contributory factor. 3. The population processes underlying the crash comprise enhanced emigration, especially by alate (winged) aphids, depressed performance resulting in reduced birth rates, and elevated mortality caused by natural enemies. 4. Mathematical models, previously applied to aphid populations on agricultural crops, have great potential for studies of aphid dynamics in natural vegetation. In particular, they can help identify the contribution of various ecological factors to the timing of the population crash and offer explanations for how slow changes in population processes can result in a rapid collapse of aphid populations.     

The Influence of Ecological Factors on Detecting Drumming Ruffed Grouse

Abstract: We surveyed drumming ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus) to estimate the probability of detecting an individual, and we used Bayesian model selection to assess the influence of factors that may affect detection probabilities of drumming grouse. We found the average probability of detecting a drumming ruffed grouse during a daily survey was 0.33. The probability of detecting a grouse was most strongly influenced by the temperature change during a survey (_{temp change} = 0.23, 95% probability interval [PI] = 0.13 ≤ ≤ 0.33) and its interaction with temperature at the start of the survey (_interaction = 0.01, 95% PI = 1.42 × 10⁻³ ≤ ≤ 0.03). Although the best model also included a main effect of temperature at the start of surveys, this variable did not strongly correlate with detection probabilities (_{start temp} = −0.03, 95% PI = −0.06 ≤ ≤ 9.80 × 10⁻⁵). Model assessment using data collected at other sites indicated that this best model performed adequately (i.e., positive correlation between observed and predicted values) but did not explain much of the variation in detection rates. Our results are useful for understanding the historical drumming index used to assess ruffed grouse populations and for designing auditory surveys for this important game bird.     

Climatic influences on the mortality of sheep during long-distance sea transport

Research on the causes of sheep death in sea voyages from Australia to the Middle East is limited, in particular little is known about the influence of climatic factors. Mortality data from 417 shipments of sheep exported over an 11-year period (November 2004 to June 2015) were modelled retrospectively to determine associated climatic factors. The statistical analysis were performed for both the full data set with 417 voyages based on actual and estimated departure and arrival dates and a restricted data set with 71 voyages based on actual dates. The results of the full data set demonstrated a seasonal mortality pattern, with more deaths occurring on sea voyages leaving Australia in the southern hemisphere winter or spring than those departing in Australian summer or autumn. Heat stress and inadequate fat mobilisation for energy supply when sheep are inappetant on shipments may explain this seasonality. Based on these two models, the voyage and weather factors associated with sheep mortalities included departure year, autumn departure in the southern hemisphere, voyage duration, single or multiple loading port(s), weekly mean dry bulb temperature and wind speed at departure ports, and humidity at destination ports. Significant correlations were observed between weather variables at the departure ports in the Australian winter and a high sheep mortality rate during voyages. This, together with the anticipated increased heat stress risk as a result of climate change, suggests that there could be review of the trade from Australia in the southern hemisphere winter. The influence of weather at the departure ports should be considered in sheep mortality prediction models, especially Australia’s heat stress risk assessment model.     

Holding steady: Little change in intensity or timing of bird migration over the Gulf of Mexico

Quantifying the timing and intensity of migratory movements is imperative for understanding impacts of changing landscapes and climates on migratory bird populations. Billions of birds migrate in the Western Hemisphere, but accurately estimating the population size of one migratory species, let alone hundreds, presents numerous obstacles. Here, we quantify the timing, intensity, and distribution of bird migration through one of the largest migration corridors in the Western Hemisphere, the Gulf of Mexico (the Gulf). We further assess whether there have been changes in migration timing or intensity through the Gulf. To achieve this, we integrate citizen science (eBird) observations with 21 years of weather surveillance radar data (1995–2015). We predicted no change in migration timing and a decline in migration intensity across the time series. We estimate that an average of 2.1 billion birds pass through this region each spring en route to Nearctic breeding grounds. Annually, half of these individuals pass through the region in just 18 days, between April 19 and May 7. The western region of the Gulf showed a mean rate of passage 5.4 times higher than the central and eastern regions. We did not detect an overall change in the annual numbers of migrants (2007–2015) or the annual timing of peak migration (1995–2015). However, we found that the earliest seasonal movements through the region occurred significantly earlier over time (1.6 days decade^?1). Additionally, body mass and migration distance explained the magnitude of phenological changes, with the most rapid advances occurring with an assemblage of larger‐bodied shorter‐distance migrants. Our results provide baseline information that can be used to advance our understanding of the developing implications of climate change, urbanization, and energy development for migratory bird populations in North America.     

Species‐specific and temporal scale‐dependent responses of birds to drought

Global climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of weather extremes, including severe droughts in many regions. Drought can impact organisms by inhibiting reproduction, reducing survival and abundance, and forcing range shifts. For birds, considering temporal scale by averaging drought‐related variables over different time lengths (i.e., temporal grains) captures different hydrologic attributes which may uniquely influence food supplies, vegetation greenness/structure, and other factors affecting populations. However, studies examining drought impacts on birds often assess a single temporal grain without considering that different species have different life histories that likely determine the temporal grain of their drought response. Furthermore, while drought is known to influence bird abundance and drive between‐year range shifts, less understood is whether it causes within‐range changes in species distributions. Our objectives were to (a) determine which temporal grain of drought (if any) is most related to bird presence/absence and whether this response is species specific; and (b) assess whether drought alters bird distributions by quantifying probability of local colonization and extinction as a function of drought intensity. We used North American Breeding Bird Survey data collected over 16 years, generalized linear mixed models, and dynamic occupancy models to meet these objectives. Different bird species responded to drought at different temporal grains, with most showing the strongest signal at annual or near‐annual grains. For all drought‐responsive species, increased drought intensity at any temporal grain always correlated with decreased occupancy. Additionally, colonization/extinction analyses indicated that one species, the dickcissel (Spiza americana), is more likely to colonize novel areas within the southern/core portion of its range during drought. Considering drought at different temporal grains, along with hydrologic attributes captured by each grain, may better reveal mechanisms behind drought impacts on birds and other organisms, and therefore improve understanding of how global climate change impacts species and the landscapes they inhabit.     

Projected changes in wind assistance under climate change for nocturnally migrating bird populations

Current climate models and observations indicate that atmospheric circulation is being affected by global climate change. To assess how these changes may affect nocturnally migrating bird populations, we need to determine how current patterns of wind assistance at migration altitudes will be enhanced or reduced under future atmospheric conditions. Here, we use information compiled from 143 weather surveillance radars stations within the contiguous United States to estimate the daily altitude, density, and direction of nocturnal migration during the spring and autumn. We intersected this information with wind projections to estimate how wind assistance is expected to change during this century at current migration altitudes. The prevailing westerlies at midlatitudes are projected to increase in strength during spring migration and decrease in strength to a lesser degree during autumn migration. Southerly winds will increase in strength across the continent during both spring and autumn migration, with the strongest gains occurring in the center of the continent. Wind assistance is projected to increase across the central (0.44 m/s; 10.1%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.32 m/s; 9.6%) during spring migration, and wind assistance is projected to decrease within the central (0.32 m/s; 19.3%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.17 m/s; 6.6%) during autumn migration. Thus, across a broad portion of the continent where migration intensity is greatest, the efficiency of nocturnal migration is projected to increase in the spring and decrease in the autumn, potentially affecting time and energy expenditures for many migratory bird species. These findings highlight the importance of placing climate change projections within a relevant ecological context informed through empirical observations, and the need to consider the possibility that climate change may generate both positive and negative implications for natural systems.     

The response of barley to rainfall and temperature in different tillage and crop rotation systems in semi‐arid conditions

Barley is a widespread crop of choice in the Spanish agricultural farming. A 7‐year field study was realised to examine the barley yield data. Weather conditions were analysed and taken into account when considering the influence of the tillage systems (TS) and previous crop on barley. In general, barley yield increased with tillage intensity; however the analysis of tiller‐count and thousand‐grain weight of barley did not present significant differences within the different TS. Barley monoculture presented lower yield than the barley in rotation with fallow or vetch, especially in those years characterised by a greater annual rainfall than average over the 7 years of study (290 mm). Also, we observed that the presence of weeds was strongly influenced by the combined effects of the environmental conditions, TS, and previous crop. It was observed that high rainfall during sowing period or shortly after had a high positive impact on production efficiency and yields. Unexpectedly, the study demonstrated positive correlation between high December temperatures and resulting barley yield. It would be useful to take into account these results when selecting the crop variety for conservation planning in Mediterranean areas.     

Rainfall during parental care reduces reproductive and survival components of fitness in a passerine bird

Adverse weather conditions during parental care may have direct consequences for offspring production, but longer‐term effects on juvenile and parental survival are less well known. We used long‐term data on reproductive output, recruitment, and parental survival in northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe) to investigate the effects of rainfall during parental care on fledging success, recruitment success (juvenile survival), and parental survival, and how these effects related to nestling age, breeding time, habitat quality, and parental nest visitation rates. While accounting for effects of temperature, fledging success was negatively related to rainfall (days > 10 mm) in the second half of the nestling period, with the magnitude of this effect being greater for breeding attempts early in the season. Recruitment success was, however, more sensitive to the number of rain days in the first half of the nestling period. Rainfall effects on parental survival differed between the sexes; males were more sensitive to rain during the nestling period than females. We demonstrate a probable mechanism driving the rainfall effects on reproductive output: Parental nest visitation rates decline with increasing amounts of daily rainfall, with this effect becoming stronger after consecutive rain days. Our study shows that rain during the nestling stage not only relates to fledging success but also has longer‐term effects on recruitment and subsequent parental survival. Thus, if we want to understand or predict population responses to future climate change, we need to consider the potential impacts of changing rainfall patterns in addition to temperature, and how these will affect target species' vital rates.     

荒漠区固沙植物梭梭(Haloxylon ammodendron)耗水特征

利用SF-300热脉冲树干液流仪,连续观测了生长季节荒漠区固沙植物梭梭树干液流速率,研究了荒漠区固沙植物梭梭林木的耗水量及其与气象因子的关系。结果表明：在生长季节,梭梭树干液流速率昼夜变化小;不同的生长日,梭梭树干液流速率介于（5．9±0．7）～（14．5±3．6）gcm^-2h^-1;观测期间,梭梭平均日耗水量为（0．3±0．2）mm,生长季节单株木耗水量达49．4mm。树干液流速率对气象因子均有一定程度的响应,且在不同时间的影响程度不同。日耗水量与林冠投影面积、基径、基径的平方乘以树高的积、边材厚度和边材面积呈线性关系。