Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food‐limited Arctic herbivore

The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain‐on‐snow) can cause ‘icing’, restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a ‘barometer’ of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between‐year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long‐term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to ‘rain‐on‐snow’ events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density‐dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important ‘missing’ mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic.     

A comparison of Betula pollen seasons at two European sites; Derby, United Kingdom and Poznan, Poland (1995–1999).

A comparison of Betula pollen, animportant European aeroallergen, was undertakenat two sites of similar latitude, Derby, UnitedKingdom and Poznan, Poland from 1995–1999. Bothsites routinely monitor Betula pollenusing a Burkard continuous volumetric sampler.Daily and two-hourly March–June Betulapollen counts per cubic metre of air werestudied at both sites, together withcorresponding meteorological data. Detailedanalysis was undertaken to compare start dates,duration and quantity of Betula pollen.Derby usually had an earlier start of seasonthan Poznan, and both cities showed very littledifference between start dates determined byusing the SUM 75 or 2.5% method. The longestseasonal durations at Derby and Poznan yieldedthe lowest seasonal pollen indexes. Every yearfrom 1995–1999 the Betula seasonal pollenindex was higher in Poznan than in Derby. Poznanhad more daily counts of Betula pollengrains per cubic metre above 500, and at leastone daily count of 1000, each year. At bothsites the yearly seasonal variation correlatedwith the number of April days per year having amaximum temperature of 17 °C or above.There was a similar diurnal periodicity ofApril Betula pollen in Derby and Poznan.Although the two cities, at approximately thesame latitude, have different regional andmeteorological characteristics, the weatherappears to influence Betula pollenseasons in a similar manner. Local clinicianscould use the SUM 75 method as indicative ofthe start of the Betula pollen season atboth sites.     

Influences of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on avian productivity in forests of the Pacific Northwest of North America

To model the effects of global climate phenomena on avian population dynamics, we must identify and quantify the spatial and temporal relationships between climate, weather and bird populations. Previous studies show that in Europe, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences winter and spring weather that in turn affects resident and migratory landbird species. Similarly, in North America, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of the Pacific Ocean reportedly drives weather patterns that affect prey availability and population dynamics of landbird species which winter in the Caribbean. Here we show that ENSO‐ and NAO‐induced seasonal weather conditions differentially affect neotropical‐ and temperate‐wintering landbird species that breed in Pacific North‐west forests of North America. For neotropical species wintering in western Mexico, El Niño conditions correlate with cooler, wetter conditions prior to spring migration, and with high reproductive success the following summer. For temperate wintering species, springtime NAO indices correlate strongly with levels of forest defoliation by the larvae of two moth species and also with annual reproductive success, especially among species known to prey upon those larvae. Generalized linear models incorporating NAO indices and ENSO precipitation indices explain 50–90% of the annual variation in productivity reported for 10 landbird species. These results represent an important step towards spatially explicit modelling of avian population dynamics at regional scales.     

Effect of weather factors on populations of Helicoverpa armigera moths at cotton-based agro-ecological sites

Pheromone trapping was used to monitor populations of the moth Helicoverpa armigera at five cotton‐based agro‐ecological sites – river, vegetable, orchard, forest and clean cultivation (areas under only cotton cultivation) – in the Bahawalpur district, Pakistan. Three locations at each site were chosen and three pheromone traps at each location were installed in cotton fields. Moth catches were recorded at 15–20 day intervals from 24 October 2004 to 19 December 2006. In 2004, the river sites showed the maximum trapped population of H. armigera (0.22/trap) followed by 0.165 per trap at the vegetable sites. Orchard, clean cultivation and forest sites had zero moth catches. In 2005, the river sites again showed the highest trapped population (0.57/trap), followed by clean cultivation (0.45/trap), vegetable (0.44/trap), orchard (0.40/trap) and forest (0.29/trap). The moths appeared during July to December and March to May. In 2006, sites showed non‐significant difference, with a population range of 0.47 to 0.97 moths per trap. On average, river sites peaked at 0.49 per trap, followed by vegetable (0.38), clean cultivation (0.47), orchard (0.35) and forest (0.25) sites. The peak was observed on 3 April 2006, and moths appeared during February to July and October to December. The minimum temperature in river, forest and clean cultivation sites; the maximum temperature in orchard sites; and the average temperature in river, orchard, forest and clean cultivation sites showed significant positive correlations with trapped moth populations. Relative humidity showed significant negative correlation with population at the orchard sites in 2005. All weather factors during 2004 and 2006 showed non‐significant correlations with the moth populations. No model was found to be best fit by multiple linear regression analysis; however, relative humidity, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and maximum temperature contributed 8.40, 10.23, 2.43, 4.53 and 2.53% to the population fluctuation of the moth at river, vegetable, orchard, forest and clean cultivation sites, respectively.     

Aeropalynology of Australian native arboreal species in Brisbane, Australia

The influence of meteorological parameters on airborne pollen of Australian native arboreal species was investigated in the sub-tropical city of Brisbane, Australia over the five-year period, June 1994–May 1999. Australian native arboreal pollen (ANAP), shed by taxa belonging to the families Cupressaceae, Casuarinaceae and Myrtaceae accounts for 18.4% of the total annual pollen count and is distributed in the atmosphere during the entire year with maximum loads restricted to the months May through November. Daily counts within the range 11–100 grains m^–3 occurred over short intervals each year and were recorded on 100 days during the five-year sampling period. Total seasonal ANAP concentrations varied each year, with highest annual values measured for the family Cupressaceae, for which greater seasonal frequencies were shown to be related to pre-seasonal precipitation (r ² = 0.76, p = 0.05). Seasonal start dates were near consistent for the Cupressaceae and Casuarinaceae. Myrtaceae start dates were variable and established to be directly related to lower average pre-seasonal maximum temperature (r ² = 0.78, p = 0.04). Associations between daily ANAP loads and weather parameters showed that densities of airborne Cupressaceae and Casuarinaceae pollen were negatively correlated with maximum temperature (p < 0.0001), minimum temperature (p < 0.0001) and precipitation (p < 0.05), whereas associations with daily Myrtaceae pollen counts were not statistically significant. This is the first study to be conducted in Australia that has assessed the relationships between weather parameters and the airborne distribution of pollen emitted by Australian native arboreal species. Pollen shed by Australian native Cupressaceae, Casuarinaceae and Myrtaceae species are considered to be important aeroallergens overseas, however their significance as a sensitising source in Australia remains unclear and requires further investigation.     

How do slow‐growing,fire‐sensitive conifers survive in flammable eucalypt woodlands?

Question: To what extent do low flammability fuel traits enhance the survival and persistence of fire‐sensitive (slowing‐growing, non‐serotinous, non‐resprouting) dominant trees in highly flammable landscapes, under varying fire‐weather conditions? Location: Mixed forests co‐dominated by flammable Eucalyptus species and fire‐sensitive Callitris glaucophylla in Pilliga State Forest, southeast Australia. Methods: The influence of vegetation composition (relative abundance of Callitris and flammable Eucalyptus) on fire intensity and survival of fire‐sensitive Callitris was assessed across gradients of Callitris abundance in mixed Eucalyptus–Callitris forests that burned under low‐moderate and extreme fire‐weather conditions. Results: In areas that burned under low‐moderate fire‐weather conditions, as Callitris abundance increased, fire intensity declined and Callitris survival increased (46%). By comparison, in extreme fire‐weather conditions, lower fire intensity at higher levels of Callitris abundance, was not sufficient to increase Callitris survival (4%). Callitris survival was also positively related to trunk diameter. Ground fuel type, but not biomass, varied with vegetation composition. Conclusions: These results demonstrate that flammable feedbacks, mediated by low flammability fuel traits of dominant trees, can provide an important mechanism for enhancing the survival and persistence of slow‐growing, non‐serotinous, non‐resprouting, fire‐killed trees in highly flammable landscapes. By modifying vegetation and fuel structure, patches of fire‐sensitive Callitris reduce fire intensity, and thereby reduce Callitris mortality, enhancing population persistence. However, this feedback loop is insufficient to ensure Callitris survival under extreme fire‐weather conditions, when fire intensity is greater. After burning, stands remain vulnerable to future fires, until trees grow large enough to modify fuel levels and reduce stand flammability.     

荒漠区固沙植物梭梭(Haloxylon ammodendron)耗水特征

利用SF-300热脉冲树干液流仪,连续观测了生长季节荒漠区固沙植物梭梭树干液流速率,研究了荒漠区固沙植物梭梭林木的耗水量及其与气象因子的关系。结果表明：在生长季节,梭梭树干液流速率昼夜变化小;不同的生长日,梭梭树干液流速率介于(5.9±0.7)～(14.5±3.6)g cm^-2h^-1;观测期间,梭梭平均日耗水量为(0.3±0.2)mm,生长季节单株木耗水量达494mm。树干液流速率对气象因子均有一定程度的响应,且在不同时间的影响程度不同。日耗水量与林冠投影面积、基径、基径的平方乘以树高的积、边材厚度和边材面积呈线性关系。     

黑龙江省大兴安岭地区塔河县森林火险天气指标动态

基于大兴安岭地区塔河县1974-2008年森林火灾数据和同期气象数据,结合加拿大火险天气系统(CFFWIS),定量和定性分析了该区森林火险天气指标动态.结果表明:1974-2008年,研究区森林火灾年均发生次数呈增加趋势,2000-2008年森林火灾年均发生次数比1974-1999年增加了72.2%;可燃物湿度码、火行为指标和火灾控制难易度指标总体呈增加趋势,且这种增加趋势随着时间的推进更加明显.未来该区森林火灾发生概率将显著递增,可燃物将更加干燥,林火强度增强,控制火灾将更加困难,火险天气状况更加严峻.该区应重点加大森林火灾的防控,尤其是夏季火灾的防控;并应加大计划可燃物的烧除,减少可燃物载量,从可燃物这一源头上减少火灾发生概率和降低火灾强度.     

Forest insects and climate change: long‐term trends in herbivore damage

Long‐term data sets, covering several decades, could help to reveal the effects of observed climate change on herbivore damage to plants. However, sufficiently long time series in ecology are scarce. The research presented here analyzes a long‐term data set collected by the Hungarian Forest Research Institute over the period 1961–2009. The number of hectares with visible defoliation was estimated and documented for several forest insect pest species. This resulted in a unique time series that provides us with the opportunity to compare insect damage trends with trends in weather patterns. Data were analyzed for six lepidopteran species: Thaumetopoea processionea, Tortrix viridana, Rhyacionia buoliana, Malacosoma neustria, Euproctis chrysorrhoea, and Lymantria dispar. All these species exhibit outbreak dynamics in Hungary. Five of these species prefer deciduous tree species as their host plants, whereas R. buoliana is a specialist on Pinus spp. The data were analyzed using general linear models and generalized least squares regression in relation to mean monthly temperature and precipitation. Temperature increased considerably, especially over the last 25 years (+1.6°C), whereas precipitation exhibited no trend over the period. No change in weather variability over time was observed. There was increased damage caused by two species on deciduous trees. The area of damage attributed to R. buoliana decreased over the study period. There was no evidence of increased variability in damage. We conclude that species exhibiting a trend toward outbreak‐level damage over a greater geographical area may be positively affected by changes in weather conditions coinciding with important life stages. Strong associations between the geographical extent of severe damage and monthly temperature and precipitation are difficult to confirm, studying the life‐history traits of species could help to increase understanding of responses to climate change.