The decline and rise of the Kransberg Cape Vulture colony over 35 years has implications for composite population indices and survey frequency

Long-term monitoring is key for detecting population declines. Composite indices allow researchers to combine trends from disparate monitoring programmes into a single estimate of population change. Inferences from composite indices, however, are limited to the time periods and areas studied. We show that the number of breeding pairs in a colony of Cape Vultures Gyps coprotheres in South Africa declined between the years 1983 and 2003 but increased in both the number of breeding pairs and fledglings per pair from 2004 to 2017. We performed a retrospective power analysis determining the minimum annual frequency with which the colony could have been monitored without sacrificing inference into population trends. This power analysis revealed the post-2003 population increase would not have been apparent if we skipped more than 2 years between surveys. We incorporated our estimates into a previously published composite index for Cape Vultures that considered only data collected pre-2000 and demonstrate that the inference is unchanged if the trend from the decline period or the entire study is incorporated, yet if only the trend during the period of population increase is used, there is no longer a statistically significant decline across the species’ range. Our results demonstrate the utility of long-term monitoring because if our study had concluded before 2003, there would be little evidence of the current population increase at Kransberg.     

Spatiotemporal variations in density and biomass of rocky reef fish in a biogeographic climatic transition zone: trends over 9 years,inside and outside the only nearshore no-take marine-protected area on the southern Brazilian coast

Biogeographical transition zones are important areas to investigate evolutionary ecological questions, but long-term population monitoring is needed to better understand ecological processes that govern population variations in such edge environments. The southernmost Brazilian rocky reefs are the southern limit of distribution for 96% of the tropical ichthyofauna of the western Atlantic. The Arvoredo Marine Biological Reserve is the only nearshore no-take marine-protected area (MPA) located in this transition zone. The main aim was to investigate how the populations of rocky reef fish species vary in density and biomass in space and over time, inside and outside the Arvoredo MPA. This study presents results based on a 9 year (2008–2017) underwater visual census monitoring study to evaluate the density and biomass of key fish species. Variations in density and biomass were detected for most species. Factors and mechanisms that may have influenced spatial variation are habitat structural complexity and protection from fisheries. Temporal variations, otherwise, may have been influenced by species proximity to their distributional limit, in synergy with density-dependent mechanisms and stochastic winter temperature oscillations. The MPAs harbour higher density and biomass for most species. Nonetheless, a prominent temporal decline in the recruitment of Epinephelus marginatus calls into question the continuous effectiveness of the MPA.     

Continental estimates of forest cover and forest cover changes in the dry ecosystems of Africa between 1990 and 2000

Aim

This study provides regional estimates of forest cover in dry African ecoregions and the changes in forest cover that occurred there between 1990 and 2000, using a systematic sample of medium‐resolution satellite imagery which was processed consistently across the continent.

Location

The study area corresponds to the dry forests and woodlands of Africa between the humid forests and the semi‐arid regions. This area covers the Sudanian and Zambezian ecoregions.

Methods

A systematic sample of 1600 Landsat satellite imagery subsets, each 20 km × 20 km in size, were analysed for two reference years: 1990 and 2000. At each sample site and for both years, dense tree cover, open tree cover, other wooded land and other vegetation cover were identified from the analysis of satellite imagery, which comprised multidate segmentation and automatic classification steps followed by visual control by national forestry experts.

Results

Land cover and land‐cover changes were estimated at continental and ecoregion scales and compared with existing pan‐continental, regional and local studies. The overall accuracy of our land‐cover maps was estimated at 87%. Between 1990 and 2000, 3.3 million hectares (Mha) of dense tree cover, 5.8 Mha of open tree cover and 8.9 Mha of other wooded land were lost, with a further 3.9 Mha degraded from dense to open tree cover. These results are substantially lower than the 34 Mha of forest loss reported in the FAO's 2010 Global Forest Resources Assessment for the same period and area.

Main conclusions

Our method generates the first consistent and robust estimates of forest cover and change in dry Africa with known statistical precision at continental and ecoregion scales. These results reduce the uncertainty regarding vegetation cover and its dynamics in these previously poorly studied ecosystems and provide crucial information for both science and environmental policies.     

Post-construction avian mortality monitoring at Project West Wind

Abstract

Post-construction avifauna investigations were undertaken at Project West Wind, Meridian Energy Limited's 62-turbine wind farm on the Wellington south coast. These investigations were required in accordance with the resource consent conditions to quantify the level of avian mortalities occurring at the wind farm, particularly in regard to New Zealand falcon (Falco novaeseelandiae), kākā (Nestor meridionalis) and kererū (Hemiphaga novaeseelandiae). This is the first comprehensive study at a New Zealand operating wind farm. The methods included three field components necessary to calculate annual estimates of mortalities across the wind farm site: routine turbine searches; carcass detection trials; and carcass removal trials. Results from years 1 and 2 of a three-year programme are presented. To date, mortalities have been recorded for 17 taxa at 18 of the 24 study turbines. There have been no recorded mortalities of falcon, kākā or kererū. Australasian harrier (Circus approximans) has been the species for which the most mortalities have been recorded. Overall estimated annual mortality rates for years 1 and 2 were calculated to be approximately six and five birds per turbine respectively.     

Book review

Oral Biofilms and Plaque Control. Edited by H J Busscher and L V Evans. Harwood Academic Publishers, The Netherlands, 1998; 348 pp, US$ 125.00; £80.00; ISBN 90–5702–391–1     

Efficacy of different antifouling treatments for seawater cooling systems

In an industrial seawater cooling system, the effects of three different antifouling treatments, viz. sodium hypochlorite (NaClO), aliphatic amines (Mexel®432) and UV radiation, on the characteristics of the fouling formed were evaluated. For this study a portable pilot plant, as a side-stream monitoring system and seawater cooling system, was employed. The pilot plant simulated a power plant steam condenser, having four titanium tubes under different treatment patterns, where fouling progression could be monitored. The nature of the fouling obtained was chiefly inorganic, showing a clear dependence on the antifouling treatment employed. After 72 days the tubes under treatment showed a reduction in the heat transfer resistance (R) of around 70% for NaClO, 48% for aliphatic amines and 55% for UV, with respect to the untreated tube. The use of a logistic model was very useful for predicting the fouling progression and the maximum asymptotic value of the increment in the heat transfer resistance (ΔR _max). The apparent thermal conductivity (λ) of the fouling layer showed a direct relationship with the percentage of organic matter in the collected fouling. The characteristics and mode of action of the different treatments used led to fouling with diverse physicochemical properties.     

Combined monitor for direct and indirect measurement of biofouling

Biofouling is one of the most important problems associated with heat exchangers, leading to a loss of thermal performance in their cycle. To maintain them in optimum working condition, biofouling must be kept under control and, to do so, instrumentation is required for its monitoring. The development of the biofouling layer can be qualitatively followed, but only during maintenance shutdown periods is it possible to attain a quantitative assessment. The CMDIMB [Combined Monitor for Direct and Indirect Measurement of Biofouling] was conceived as a means of discovering the evolution of the frictional resistance (f) and the heat transfer resistance (R _f) of a fluid because these are variables that indirectly define the biofouling deposited in the tubes of a seawater-cooled heat exchanger. They likewise serve to directly indicate its mass and thickness according to the total solid matter adhered over time. The results obtained allowed the values of the variables taken by the CMDIMB to be extrapolated to the heat exchanger that was set up in parallel. The CMDIMB is proposed as a highly useful tool for directly and indirectly monitoring biofouling growth in heat exchangers that do not possess the necessary instrumentation to monitor this phenomenon.     

CIRCADIAN PATTERN OF AMBULATORY BLOOD PRESSURE IN UNTREATED HYPERTENSIVE PATIENTS WITH AND WITHOUT METABOLIC SYNDROME

There is a strong association between metabolic syndrome (MS) and increased risk of end-organ damage, cardiovascular disease, stroke, and cardiovascular mortality. Moreover, non-dipping (<?10% decline in the asleep relative to the awake blood pressure [BP] mean) and elevated ambulatory pulse pressure (PP), among other factors related to the circadian BP pattern, have also been associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. This cross-sectional study investigated the circadian BP pattern in 2,045 non-diabetic untreated patients with uncomplicated essential hypertension (941 men/1,099 women), 48.7?±?11.9 yrs of age, classified by the presence or absence of MS. BP was measured by ambulatory monitoring for 48 consecutive hours to substantiate reproducibility of the dipping pattern. Physical activity was simultaneously monitored every min by wrist actigraphy to accurately calculate mean BP when awake and asleep for each subject. MS was present in 40.7% of the patients. Patients with MS were characterized by a significantly higher 24?h mean of systolic BP and a lower diastolic BP compared to patients without MS. Accordingly, ambulatory PP was significantly elevated the entire 24?h in MS patients. The prevalence of an altered non-dipper BP profile was significantly higher in MS patients (48.4 vs. 36.1% in patients without MS, p?<?0.001). MS patients were characterized, among other risk factors, by significantly higher uric acid, fibrinogen, leukocyte count, hemoglobin and globular sedimentation velocity, plus lower estimated glomerular filtration rate. Apart from corroborating the significant increased prevalence of a blunted nocturnal BP decline in MS, this study documents ambulatory PP is higher in MS, without differences between groups in mean arterial pressure. This elevated PP might reflect increased arterial stiffness in MS. MS patients were also characterized by elevated values of relevant markers of cardiovascular risk, including fibrinogen and globular sedimentation velocity. These collective findings indicate that MS should be included among the clinical situations in which ambulatory BP monitoring is recommended. (Author correspondence: rhermida@uvigo.es)     

Validation of an innovative method,based on tilt sensing,for the assessment of activity and body position

Since there is less movement during sleep than during wake, the recording of body movements by actigraphy has been used to indirectly evaluate the sleep–wake cycle. In general, most actigraphic devices are placed on the wrist and their measures are based on acceleration detection. Here, we propose an alternative way of measuring actigraphy at the level of the arm for joint evaluation of activity and body position. This method analyzes the tilt of three axes, scoring activity as the cumulative change of degrees per minute with respect to the previous sampling, and measuring arm tilt for the body position inference. In this study, subjects (N?=?13) went about their daily routine for 7 days, kept daily sleep logs, wore three ambulatory monitoring devices and collected sequential saliva samples during evenings for the measurement of dim light melatonin onset (DLMO). These devices measured motor activity (arm activity, AA) and body position (P) using the tilt sensing of the arm, with acceleration (wrist acceleration, WA) and skin temperature at wrist level (WT). Cosinor, Fourier and non-parametric rhythmic analyses were performed for the different variables, and the results were compared by the ANOVA test. Linear correlations were also performed between actimetry methods (AA and WA) and WT. The AA and WA suitability for circadian phase prediction and for evaluating the sleep–wake cycle was assessed by comparison with the DLMO and sleep logs, respectively. All correlations between rhythmic parameters obtained from AA and WA were highly significant. Only parameters related to activity levels, such as mesor, RA (relative amplitude), VL5 and VM10 (value for the 5 and 10 consecutive hours of minimum and maximum activity, respectively) showed significant differences between AA and WA records. However, when a correlation analysis was performed on the phase markers acrophase, mid-time for the 10 consecutive hours of highest (M10) and mid-time for the five consecutive hours of lowest activity (L5) with DLMO, all of them showed a significant correlation for AA (R?=?0.607, p?=?0.028; R?=?0.582, p?=?0.037; R?=?0.620, p?=?0.031, respectively), while for WA, only acrophase did (R?=?0.621, p?=?0.031). Regarding sleep detection, WA showed higher specificity than AA (0.95?±?0.01 versus 0.86?±?0.02), while the agreement rate and sensitivity were higher for AA (0.76?±?0.02 versus 0.66?±?0.02 and 0.71?±?0.03 versus 0.53?±?0.03, respectively). Cohen’s kappa coefficient also presented the highest values for AA (0.49?±?0.04) and AP (0.64?±?0.04), followed by WT (0.45?±?0.06) and WA (0.37?±?0.04). The findings demonstrate that this alternative actigraphy method (AA), based on tilt sensing of the arm, can be used to reliably evaluate the activity and sleep–wake rhythm, since it presents a higher agreement rate and sensitivity for detecting sleep, at the same time allows the detection of body position and improves circadian phase assessment compared to the classical actigraphic method based on wrist acceleration.     

Circadian Rhythm of Blood Pressure: Internal and External Time Triggers

Diurnal blood pressure (BP) fluctuations are superimposed by a 24-h rhythm with usually lower levels during the night and higher levels during the day. In contrast to other rhythmic bioparameters, the diurnal BP rhythm is largely dependent on activity and sleep rather than on clock time. This has been demonstrated by the BP characteristics after shifted sleeping and working phases, during transition from sleep to wakefulness, and by the influence of sleep and activities on the 24-h BP curve during normal daily routines. Whereas the circadian rhythm of BP is predominantly governed by external time triggers, endogenous rhythmicity can only be detected by time microscopic analysis or in conditions where effects of external time triggers are almost excluded.