Scale and uncertainty in modeled soil organic carbon stock changes for US croplands using a process‐based model

Process‐based model analyses are often used to estimate changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), particularly at regional to continental scales. However, uncertainties are rarely evaluated, and so it is difficult to determine how much confidence can be placed in the results. Our objective was to quantify uncertainties across multiple scales in a process‐based model analysis, and provide 95% confidence intervals for the estimates. Specifically, we used the Century ecosystem model to estimate changes in SOC stocks for US croplands during the 1990s, addressing uncertainties in model inputs, structure and scaling of results from point locations to regions and the entire country. Overall, SOC stocks increased in US croplands by 14.6 Tg C yr^?1 from 1990 to 1995 and 17.5 Tg C yr^?1 during 1995 to 2000, and uncertainties were ±22% and ±16% for the two time periods, respectively. Uncertainties were inversely related to spatial scale, with median uncertainties at the regional scale estimated at ±118% and ±114% during the early and latter part of 1990s, and even higher at the site scale with estimates at ±739% and ±674% for the time periods, respectively. This relationship appeared to be driven by the amount of the SOC stock change; changes in stocks that exceeded 200 Gg C yr^?1 represented a threshold where uncertainties were always lower than ±100%. Consequently, the amount of uncertainty in estimates derived from process‐based models will partly depend on the level of SOC accumulation or loss. In general, the majority of uncertainty was associated with model structure in this application, and so attaining higher levels of precision in the estimates will largely depend on improving the model algorithms and parameterization, as well as increasing the number of measurement sites used to evaluate the structural uncertainty.     

The distributions of parthenogenetic ascid mites (Acari: Parasitiformes) do not support the biotic uncertainty hypothesis

Fifteen out of 50 species of ascid mites (30%) that we collected from four synanthropic and seven natural habitats in North America and Australia existed as all-female populations. In contrast to the predictions of the biotic uncertainty hypothesis (i.e. that parthenogenetic species are rare, restricted in distribution and survive through dispersal ability), we found that parthenogentic ascid mites were present in ten out of 11 habitats sampled, but were not superior colonists. In a glasshouse experiment, pasteurized soil in pots was colonized first by bisexual species and only later by all-female species. Furthermore, a habitat requiring strong dispersal abilities (decaying fungal sporocarps) lacked parthenogenetic species and a review of literature and collections indicated that all-female ascid species rarely form the phoretic associations with insects necessary to exploit patchy and ephemeral resources. The assumptions that parthenogens are reproductively superior to but competitively inferior to sexual relatives were not supported by experiments comparing a bisexual and an all-female species of Lasioseius.     

Power and limitation of soil properties as predictors of variation in peak plant biomass in a northern mixed-grass prairie

Soil properties are thought to affect annual plant productivity in rangelands, and thus soil variables that are consistently correlated with plant biomass may be general indicators of rangeland health. Here we measured several soil properties (e.g. aggregate stability, organic carbon, total nitrogen) and tested each as a would-be predictor of local variation in peak aboveground grassland biomass. Individual properties explained a slight (≤10%) amount of variation in plant biomass. Plant biomass was mainly (negatively) associated with two soil properties, subsurface soil carbonate concentration and the stability of soil macroaggregates near the soil surface. Less important predictive variables included: elevation, plant community composition, surface soil organic carbon, and soil carbon:nitrogen. Plot-to-plot variation in plant biomass is seemingly difficult to predict based on soil properties, including popular indicators of soil and rangeland health and even root biomass. While protection of soil is critical to overall rangeland ecosystem function, our findings suggest that the relationship between soil properties and plant biomass in natural grasslands is complex. Thus, there may not be one or even several soil properties that consistently predict appreciable variation in peak grassland biomass, especially variation within an ecosystem independent of precipitation.     

A Sense of Security: Carpentry Apprentices Handling Uncertain and Dangerous Work Tasks

ABSTRACT

This article explores how carpentry apprentices learn to handle uncertain and potentially dangerous situations in the working environment at construction sites. The analysis focuses on how these situations are negotiated at the workplaces in relation to bodily sensations of pain, relations with their co-workers and the importance placed on ‘getting the work done’. It shows that instead of working to eliminate potentially dangerous situations through the use of precautionary measures such as lifting equipment or personal protection gear, the apprentices learn to understand risk and uncertainties as a part of the job through general learning processes at the workplace.     

我国钢渣碳汇的量化分析

在全球温室气体浓度升高的背景下,如何减少碳排放、增加碳吸收是当前应对气候变化研究的热点.本研究基于我国1963—2016年粗钢产量,采用温室气体清单指南编制方法,建立了钢渣碳汇核算方法,核算了我国1963—2016年钢渣碳汇量,并进行了不确定性分析.结果表明: 1963—2016年间,我国钢渣的年碳汇量总体呈上升趋势,从3.75×10³ t C增加至1359.32×10³ t C.1963—2016年间我国钢渣累积碳汇量为15×10⁶ t C,钢渣碳汇的总不确定性约为±30.4%.钢渣年碳汇量由当年产钢渣碳汇量和历年产钢渣碳汇量两部分组成.由于钢渣结构致密,年碳化速率较小,导致1963—2016年间当年产钢渣碳汇量较小,占钢渣碳汇总量的37%;历年产钢渣碳汇量较大,占钢渣碳汇总量的63%.虽然钢渣年碳汇量不大,但长期累积碳汇量非常可观,其碳汇作用不容忽视.今后研究应细化不同环境条件下钢渣碳化速率,降低钢渣碳汇核算的不确定性;推动以钢渣为原材料的碳捕集与封存技术发展,增加有效碳汇,为我国应对气候变化国际谈判提供科技支撑.     

Cues to paternity: Do partner fidelity and offspring resemblance predict daughter-directed sexual aversions?

Despite the profound influence of relatedness on mating and cooperative behavior in humans, the cues men use to assess paternity and guide offspring-directed behavior have yet to be fully resolved. According to leading theories of kin detection, kinship cues should influence both sexual and altruistic motivations because of fitness consequences associated with inbreeding and welfare tradeoff decisions, respectively. Prior work with paternity assessment, however, has generally evaluated candidate cues solely by demonstrating associations with altruism. Here we (i) replicate past work that found effects of phenotypic resemblance and perceived partner fidelity on offspring investment; and (ii) evaluate whether both phenotypic resemblance and perceived partner fidelity meet the more stringent criteria suggested by theory—that is, whether they also predict inbreeding aversions. We report on two studies, one from a population-based sample of Finnish fathers (N?=?390), the other from a Mechanical Turk sample (N?=?700), and furnish evidence in strong support of perceived partner fidelity as a cue to paternity. Support for resemblance as a cue to paternity was decidedly weaker. We discuss a non-kin-based role that resemblance might play in altruistic decision-making, consider whether men might use additional kinship cues to meet the computational challenges associated with paternity assessment, and provide suggestions for future research.     

Contribution of crop model structure,parameters and climate projections to uncertainty in climate change impact assessments

Climate change impact assessments are plagued with uncertainties from many sources, such as climate projections or the inadequacies in structure and parameters of the impact model. Previous studies tried to account for the uncertainty from one or two of these. Here, we developed a triple‐ensemble probabilistic assessment using seven crop models, multiple sets of model parameters and eight contrasting climate projections together to comprehensively account for uncertainties from these three important sources. We demonstrated the approach in assessing climate change impact on barley growth and yield at Jokioinen, Finland in the Boreal climatic zone and Lleida, Spain in the Mediterranean climatic zone, for the 2050s. We further quantified and compared the contribution of crop model structure, crop model parameters and climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Based on the triple‐ensemble probabilistic assessment, the median of simulated yield change was ?4% and +16%, and the probability of decreasing yield was 63% and 31% in the 2050s, at Jokioinen and Lleida, respectively, relative to 1981–2010. The contribution of crop model structure to the total variance of ensemble output was larger than that from downscaled climate projections and model parameters. The relative contribution of crop model parameters and downscaled climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output varied greatly among the seven crop models and between the two sites. The contribution of downscaled climate projections was on average larger than that of crop model parameters. This information on the uncertainty from different sources can be quite useful for model users to decide where to put the most effort when preparing or choosing models or parameters for impact analyses. We concluded that the triple‐ensemble probabilistic approach that accounts for the uncertainties from multiple important sources provide more comprehensive information for quantifying uncertainties in climate change impact assessments as compared to the conventional approaches that are deterministic or only account for the uncertainties from one or two of the uncertainty sources.     

海南黎药海巴戟多糖含量测定及其测量不确定度评估

研究和探讨海南黎药海巴戟多糖含量,并对多糖含量测量过程中引入的不确定因素进行评估。采用苯酚-硫酸法测定海巴戟药材中多糖含量,并根据苯酚-硫酸法建立数学模型,找出影响不确定的因素,最终确定测量结果的合成不确定度和扩展不确定度。以D-葡萄糖作为对照品,浓度在0.002 5～0.012 5 g/L范围内线性关系良好(R~2=0.999 4),重现性试验RSD=1.84%,4 h内显色稳定,加样回收率为98.05%(n=9,RSD=2.32%);16批海巴戟药材多糖含量为5.53%～12.63%,其多糖含量测定方法的合成不确定度为0.029 4～0.093 8,扩展不确定度为0.059 0～0.187 6。影响测量不确定度的主要因素有称量、浓度配制和吸光度。本研究建立的海南黎药海巴戟多糖含量测定方法适应性广、灵敏度高,若将测量结果不确定度纳入标准制定有助于对海巴戟药材含量分析方法的建立和质量标准的制定,有利于对海巴戟药材资源的开发。     

Does corn market uncertainty impact the US ethanol prices?

The growing interest in biofuel as a green energy source has intensified the linkages between corn and ethanol markets, especially in the United States that represents the largest producing and exporting country for ethanol in the world. In this study, we examine the effect of corn market uncertainty on the price changes of US ethanol applying a set of GARCH‐jump models. We find that the US ethanol price changes react positively to the corn market volatility shocks after controlling for the effect of oil price uncertainty. In addition, we document that the impact of corn price volatility on the US ethanol prices appears to be asymmetric. Specifically, only the positive corn market volatility shocks are found to influence the ethanol market returns. Our findings also suggest that time‐varying jumps do exist in the ethanol market.