Visitor management and ecological integrity: one example of an integrated management approach using Decision Analysis

In this paper we argue in favour of using a decision analysis framework for more integrated decision-making when managing protected areas. Such an approach will enable agencies to balance between the frequently conflicting goals of visitor management and ecological integrity. We present a case study from the West Coast Trail in Pacific Rim National Park Reserve, BC, Canada, in which we use a hybrid of ELECTRE and AHP to establish a ranking of several management options. We conclude by suggesting that such a more formal framework constitutes a more objective decision support tool, assists in framing relevant management questions and tradeoffs, and at the same time provides guidance for data collection.     

Human Interindividual Variability in Cancer Risks—Technical and Management Challenges

Existing risk assessment procedures for carcinogens are intended to be “conservative” in the uncertainty dimension—giving estimates that are expected to be higher than true risks for typical people. However, these procedures do not consider the likely variability in susceptibility among individual people. This paper updates previous estimates of the likely extent of this variability for metabolically activated, genetically-acting carcinogens based on recent information on human interindividual variability in metabolic activation, detoxification, and DNA repair. The resulting expected skewness of cancer risk distributions is estimated using Monte Carlo simulations of both variability and uncertainty.

Some risk management implications are:

1. When evaluating the fairness of a particular risk distribution, managers need to gain familiarity with a three-dimensional characterization—X level of risk, for the Yth percentile individual (addressing variability) with Z degree of confidence (addressing uncertainty).

2. To the extent that variability distributions are skewed (e.g., with a long tail extending to high values) population mean risks will tend to exceed risks for median individuals. Together with the skewness in uncertainty distributions, this implies that “expected value” estimates of aggregate population risks—the estimates of interest for cost benefit analyses—are likely to be closer to traditional upper confidence limit risk estimates than has often been assumed in the past.

Management of ecosystem services in mountain forests: Review of indicators and value functions for model based multi-criteria decision analysis

The main ecosystem services (ES) central European mountain forests provide are: protection against gravitational hazards, timber production, recreation, biodiversity conservation and carbon storage, which are all in high demand. These demands make managing mountain forests a challenging task, involving manifold synergies and conflicts between the different ES. There is therefore an urgent need for appropriate concepts and tools for support decisions in forest management and planning (FMP) to take into consideration all ES and to manage the wide variety of information types, parameters and uncertainties involved in assessing the sustainability of ES. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides a suitable set of methods for sustainability evaluations. In this study sustainability means the persistent fulfilment of the required ES. To address all the phases of the FMP process, MCDA and forest models should be applied together, with indicators providing the main interfaces to combine them. This paper aims to: i) review assessment approaches in order to select appropriate and widely accepted indicators for measuring and assessing the effects of different silvicultural management alternatives on forest ES, and ii) present additional standardisation approaches (value functions) for each indicator. Standardisations are necessary to make the different ES comparable and to study synergies and trade-offs between different management objectives in MCDA. The main ES in central European mountain regions are considered, with a clear focus on those indicators that are directly derivable from forest model outputs and that can refer to sustainable forest management practices. The scales considered are that of the single forest stand and of the larger forest management unit. A holistic indicator-based analysis framework for FMP in mountain forests can be built using the indicators and value functions described. The influence of different management alternatives on ES can then be evaluated, taking into consideration the instruments and information on forest management (forest models, inventory) available. All indicators are selected according to existing and approved approaches that only require data that is normally available in operational forest management. The framework can thus be an important element in developing a decision support system for FMP in mountain forests.     

From Data to Decisions: Helping Crop Producers Build Their Actionable Knowledge

Recent advances in distributed information technologies are providing the means to capture and process abundant data, and to reveal associations between variables describing the crop-environment-management interaction. This review describes the determinants and moderating factors influencing how much value a crop producer and his or her advisor can derive from data, and information derived from data. We describe the social, technological, and entrepreneurial processes needed to progress the nonlinear pathway from data to an on-farm decision, and explore the meaning of actionable knowledge; that is, knowledge that can be acted upon and applied to solve a real-world problem. We argue that effective decision support is also a system that supports the learning needs of crop producers and their transactions with trusted advisors. Crop protection, the sub-set of crop management used to mitigate crop loss, is used to illustrate current approaches and technologies to support farmers' decisions. We describe how situational awareness and actionable knowledge could be improved through use of emerging platform technologies, advances in artificial intelligence, consideration of farmer decision style, knowledge capture and maintenance, and embedding technology in human-centered services. Implications for the conduct of research and development are discussed.     

A knowledge-driven agent-centred framework for data mining in EMG

In this paper, we present a multi-agent framework for data mining in electromyography. This application, based on a web interface, provides a set of functionalities allowing to manipulate 1000 medical cases and more than 25,000 neurological tests stored in a medical database. The aim is to extract medical information using data mining algorithms and to supply a knowledge base with pertinent information. The multi-agent platform gives the possibility to distribute the data management process between several autonomous entities. This framework provides a parallel and flexible data manipulation.     

Seasonal Foliage Changes in the Eastern Amazon Basin Detected from Landsat Thematic Mapper Satellite Images1

Seasonal changes in tropical forests are difficult to measure from the ground, especially in areas of high species diversity and low phenological synchrony. Satellite images, which integrate individual tree canopies and cover a large spatial extent, facilitate tests for stand-level canopy phenology. Variability in near-infrated radiance (TM bands 4 and 5) of several distinct vegetation types was used to detect seasonal changes in a series of three Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images from the wet season to the dry season in Marabá, Brazil (eastern Amazon basin). Despite different atmospheric and instrumental conditions among the images, spectral changes were distinguishable. A phenological process (leaf aging, leaf drop, water stress) was determined from the spectral changes for each vegetation type. Changes in the spectral properties suggest that during the dry season, upland terra firme forest increased the rate of leaf exchange and some riparian vegetation was deciduous. Terra firme forest that had been altered by penetration of fires from nearby pastures increased in leaf biomass over a 14-month period. This study shows that a time series of images can provide information on temporal changes in primary vegetation and guide field studies to investigate seasonal changes that may not be detectable from the ground.     

佛冈县不同类型橘园柑橘木虱的种群动态

[目的] 明确佛冈县不同类型橘园柑橘木虱的种群动态,为当地柑橘木虱及柑橘黄龙病的防治工作提供科学依据。[方法] 通过2015-2016年的系统调查,对广东省佛冈县砂糖橘园的柑橘木虱种群消长动态进行研究,对比分析了不同处理措施对柑橘木虱种群数量的影响。[结果] 1-3月柑橘木虱发生危害较轻,随着嫩梢增多,其种群数量开始上升,6-9月为种群发生高峰期,期间出现多个发生高峰,10月之后种群数量逐渐进入消退期,种群数量维持在较低水平;2015、2016年佛冈县柑橘木虱的季节性消长动态基本一致,但种群发生量存在明显差别;3种不同类型橘园内柑橘木虱种群发生数量也存在显著差异,常年失管橘园柑橘木虱种群发生数量最高,常规水肥管理橘园次之,二者均显著高于常规水肥管理及化学防治橘园。[结论] 化学防治可在一定程度上控制柑橘木虱的种群数量,及时清理失管橘园对控制柑橘木虱和柑橘黄龙病传播至关重要。     

Zooplankton Communities in the Shallow Lake Guiers (Senegal,West Africa)

Seasonal variations of zooplankton communities and their interactions with phytoplankton and environmental parameters were studied over a twelve‐month period in Lake Guiers (Senegal, West Africa). Zooplankton was most abundant during the warm and rainy season corresponding to the flood event (July to October) with peaks for rotifers and cyclopoid copepods in July–August and September–October, respectively. Filamentous cyanobacteria were the dominant phytoplankton during the warm season (August to November), while diatoms were dominant during the cool season (December to April). Temperature increase and river flooding both played an important role in these successions, favoring intense development of cyanobacteria and cyclopoid copepods. Trophic interactions also seem to be an important factor in structuring of the plankton community. Overall, the plankton composition displayed a trend toward a eutrophication state. Our study confirms the existence of seasonality in zooplankton communities and the importance of using biological indicators such as phyto‐ and zooplankton to monitor water quality, in particular in tropical freshwater ecosystems. (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Conclusion: applying South East Asia Rainforest Research Programme science to land-use management policy and practice in a changing landscape and climate

The context and challenges relating to the remaining tropical rainforest are briefly reviewed and the roles which science can play in addressing questions are outlined. Key messages which articles in the special issue, mainly based on projects of the Royal Society South East Asia Rainforest Research Programme (SEARRP), have raised of relevance to policies on land use, land management and REDD+ are then considered. Results from the atmospheric science and hydrology papers, and some of the ecological ones, demonstrate the very high ecosystem service values of rainforest (compared with oil palm) in maintaining high biodiversity, good local air quality, reducing greenhouse emissions, and reducing landslide, flooding and sedimentation consequences of climate change-and hence provide science to underpin the protection of remaining forest, even if degraded and fragmented. Another group of articles test ways of restoring forest quality (in terms of biodiversity and carbon value) or maintaining as high biodiversity and ecological functioning levels as possible via intelligent design of forest zones and fragments within oil palm landscapes. Finally, factors that have helped to enhance the policy relevance of SEARRP projects and dissemination of their results to decision-makers are outlined.     

Tropicality and abjection: What do we really mean by “Neglected Tropical Diseases”?

Neglected tropical diseases are defined operationally as diseases that prevail in “tropical” regions and are under‐researched, under‐funded, and under‐treated compared with their disease burden. By analysing the adjectives “tropical” and “neglected,” I expose and interrogate the discourses within which the term “neglected tropical disease” derives its meaning. First, I argue that the term “tropical” conjures the notion of “tropicality,” a form of Othering which erroneously explains the disease‐prevalence of “tropical” regions by reference to environmental determinism, rather than colonialism and neocolonialism. Second, I examine the way in which this Othering enables the abjection of tropical regions and their peoples, leading to neglect. I recommend that the term “neglected tropical diseases” be more carefully contextualised within health scholarship, education, and policy.