Geographical variation in age at menarche in Britain

The geographical distribution of age at menarche in great Britain is analysed in two successive generations. It appears that the variances for age at menarche are equal throughout the country. The means, however, show significant and complicated patterns of regional variation. In the southern and eastern parts of the country, menarche was earlier than in the northern parts in both generations. This patterning is not due to social class differentiation. Except for the sparsely populated areas in northern and western Scotland and for the extreme south-western parts of England and Wales all areas show evidence of a decline in age at menarche from the mothers' to the daughters' generation.     

A distinctive latitudinal trend of nitrogen isotope signature across urban forests in eastern China

Rapid urbanization has greatly altered nitrogen (N) cycling from regional to global scales. Compared to natural forests, urban forests receive much more external N inputs with distinctive abundances of stable N isotope (δ¹⁵N). However, the large-scale pattern of soil δ¹⁵N and its imprint on plant δ¹⁵N remain less well understood in urban forests. By collecting topsoil (0–20 cm) and leaf samples from urban forest patches in nine large cities across a north–south transect in eastern China, we analyzed the latitudinal trends of topsoil C:N ratio and δ¹⁵N as well as the correlations between tree leaf δ¹⁵N and topsoil δ¹⁵N. We further explored the spatial variation of topsoil δ¹⁵N explained by corresponding climatic, edaphic, vegetation-associated, and anthropogenic drivers. Our results showed a significant increase of topsoil C:N ratio towards higher latitudes, suggesting lower N availability at higher latitudes. Topsoil δ¹⁵N also increased significantly at higher latitudes, being opposite to the latitudinal trend of soil N availability. The latitudinal trend of topsoil δ¹⁵N was mainly explained by mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, and atmospheric deposition of both ammonium and nitrate. Consequently, tree leaf δ¹⁵N showed significant positive correlations with topsoil δ¹⁵N across all sampled plant species and functional types. Our findings reveal a distinctive latitudinal trend of δ¹⁵N in urban forests and highlight an important role of anthropogenic N sources in shaping the large-scale pattern of urban forest ¹⁵N signature.     

Incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer on a rapid rise in Taiwan, 1999–2012

BackgroundAccumulating data has revealed a rapidly rising incidence of pancreatic cancer in Western countries, but convincing evidence from the East remains sparse. We aimed to quantify how the incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic malignancy changed over time in Taiwan, and to develop future projection for the next decade.MethodsThis nationwide population-based study analyzed the Taiwan National Cancer Registry and the National Cause of Death Registry to calculate the annual incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic malignancy from 1999 to 2012 in this country. The secular trend of the incidence was also examined by data from the National Health Insurance Research Database.ResultsA total of 21,986 incident cases of pancreatic cancer and 20,720 related deaths occurred during the study period. The age-standardized incidence rate increased from 3.7 per 100,000 in 1999 to 5.0 per 100,000 in 2012, with a significant rising trend (P < 0.01). The increase was nationwide, consistently across subgroups stratified by age, gender, geographic region, and urbanization. Data from the National Health Insurance Research Database corroborated the rise of incident pancreatic cancer. Mortality also increased with time, with the age-standardized rate rising from 3.5 per 100,000 in 1999 to 4.1 per 100,000 in 2012 (P < 0.01). In accordance with the incidence, the mortality trend was consistent in all subgroups. Both the incidence and mortality were projected to further increase by approximately 20% from 2012 to 2027.ConclusionThe incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer have been rapidly rising and presumably will continue to rise in Taiwan.     

Estimating temperature effects on Drosophila suzukii life cycle parameters

1. Drosophila suzukii is an invasive, polyphagous pest of soft-skinned fruits, having huge impact on fruit production in Asia, North and South America and Europe including Germany.
2. To investigate the effect of temperature on oviposition, egg-to-adult development success and duration, as well as immature heat survival and adult cold survival for a German D. suzukii population several experiments were conducted under different constant temperatures in the laboratory. The resulting life cycle data were described mathematically as functions of temperature and compared with experimental results of other researchers in a summary table.
3. Curve fittings used herein revealed that minimum, optimum and maximum temperatures are: 13.2, 26.7 and 33.6 °C for oviposition, 14.1, 22.6 and 30.0 °C for egg-to-adult development success, and 9.6, 27.3 and 35.7 °C for egg-to-adult development duration. Eggs and larvae of D. suzukii showed a reduced heat survival within the tested temperature range of 29 to 41 °C and exposure durations from 1 to 8 h. A cold survival rate of 50% was measured at e.g. −6 °C for 4 h in summer morph adults and at e.g. −6 °C for 45 h in winter morph adults confirming that the latter are more cold tolerant.
4. Results obtained in this study for a German population of D. suzukii are similar to those obtained for populations of other origins such as Canada, Japan, Spain and USA. Thus, presumably, present data based on a German D. suzukii population can be used for a new or fine-tune of already existing population dynamics models of D. suzukii in order to support an effective pest management strategy.

     

Composite analysis of black duck breeding population surveys in eastern North America

Waterfowl are monitored in eastern Canada and the northeastern United States with 2 surveys: a transect survey from fixed-wing aircraft and a plot survey conducted from helicopters. The surveys vary in extent, but overlap exists in a core area of 9 strata covering portions of all provinces from Ontario east to Newfoundland. We estimated population change for American black ducks (Anas rubripes) and mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) from these surveys using a log-linear hierarchical model that accommodates differences in sample design and visibility associated with these survey methods. Using a combined analysis of the surveys based on total indicated birds, we estimate the American black duck population to be 901,700 (95% CI: 715,200–1,274,000) in 2011, with 526,900 (95% CI: 357,500–852,300) mallards in the surveyed area. Precision of estimates varies widely by species and region, with transect surveys providing less precise results than plot surveys for black ducks in areas of overlap. The combined survey analysis for black ducks in the eastern survey region produced estimates with an average yearly coefficient of variation (CV) of 12.1% for the entire area and an average CV of 6.9% in the plot survey area. Mallards, which had a more limited distribution in the region, had an average yearly CV of 22.1% over the entire region, and an average CV of 27.7% in the plot survey area. Hierarchical models provide a rich framework for analyzing and combining results from complex survey designs, providing useful spatial and temporal information on population size and change in these economically important species. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Phenotypic and genetic trends of patellar luxation in Dutch Flat‐Coated Retrievers

Canine patellar luxation has been described in various dog breeds, with high prevalence especially in smaller dogs. Most dogs suffer from medial displacement of the patella, although in larger dogs lateral displacement is also seen. A sex predisposition has been described for females. Patellar luxation is considered a polygenic, multifactorial disorder. From 1990 to 2007, in total 3834 Flat‐Coated Retrievers were screened; 23.6% of those animals were affected with patellar luxation. Lateral displacement of the patella was most common in this breed (61% of cases), whereas medial (31% of cases) and lateral and medial (8% of cases) were less common. Unilateral involvement (51% of cases) was just as often observed as was bilateral involvement (49% of cases). Females were more often affected with patellar luxation (30% of all tested females) than were males (17% of all tested males). The heritability of patellar luxation was 0.17 ± 0.03 in this population, and breeding with one affected parent increased the prevalence of patellar luxation in offspring by 45% compared to that with two unaffected parents. Since the start of the screening program, there was an initial decrease from 28% to 18% in incidence, but this stagnated thereafter. The annual average estimated breeding values followed the same pattern. With approximately one quarter of the Dutch Flat‐Coated Retrievers being affected with patellar luxation, this population shows unusually high prevalence compared with reports in other large‐breed dogs. The heritability for patellar luxation in this population was moderate (0.17), indicating that environmental factors play a large role in the manifestation of the disorder. A screening program reduced the prevalence of patellar luxation in this breed, but improvement has recently stagnated. Inclusion of breeding values in the screening program could improve its effectiveness.     

Simple testing procedures for the Holling type II model

In this paper, we consider predator–prey data that can be viewed as solutions to a planar system of ordinary differential equations (ODE) observed with random error. The ODE system admits a limit cycle, while the random error is supposed to act additively in the log-scale. One of the oldest such systems is Holling’s type II model. In spite of its simplicity, it is still very popular in data analyses, although more sophisticated models have been introduced in the literature. We propose a simple way of deciding whether a set of predator–prey pairs is indicative or not of a departure from this basic model by exploiting the geometric properties of the solution in the phase plane. To illustrate our method, we use simulated and real data.     

Estimation of Residual Valve Gradient from Incomplete Data with Outliers

An important indicator for the long-term recovery after valve replacement surgery is postoperative valve gradient. This information is available only for patients received catheterization or echocardiogram postoperatively. It is plausible that sicker patients are more inclined to undergo these postoperative procedures and their valve gradients tend to be higher. Under this situation, ignoring the missing values and using sample mean based on the available information as an estimate of the whole study population leads to overestimation. Regression estimator is a reasonable choice to eliminate this bias if independent (explanatory) variables closely associated with both residual valve gradient and non-response mechanism can be identified. Using a series of patients receiving St. Jude Medical prosthetic valves, we found that valve area index can be used as an independent variable in the regression estimator. Two digressions from the standard assumptions used in linear regression, heteroscedastic trend of the error term and outliers were found in the data set. Iteratively reweighted least square (IRLS) was adopted to handle heteroscedasticity. Influence function approach was used to evaluate the sensitivity of outliers in regression estimator. Under an equal response rate mechanism, IRLS not only solves the problem of heteroscedasticity, but is also less sensitive to outliers.     

Tests for Order Restrictions in Binary Data

In this article, a general procedure is presented for testing for equality of k independent binary response probabilities against any given ordered alternative. The proposed methodology is based on an estimation procedure developed in Hwang and Peddada (1994, Annals of Statistics 22, 67-93) and can be used for a very broad class of order restrictions. The procedure is illustrated through application to two data sets that correspond to three commonly encountered order restrictions: simple tree order, simple order, and down turn order.