Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?

The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8–10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA.     

TOPOGRAPHIC DIVERSITY,ZONE WIDTH,AND THE STRENGTH OF REPRODUCTIVE ISOLATION IN A ZONE OF OVERLAP AND HYBRIDIZATION

Two closely related species of ground crickets, Allonemobius fasciatus and A. socius, overlap and hybridize in a contact zone in the eastern United States. In earlier work, Howard (1986) described geographic variation in the width of the zone and in the strength of reproductive isolation between the two ground crickets. The zone was wider in the hills and mountains of southeastern Ohio and West Virginia than along the eastern coastal plain, and reproductive isolation appeared to be stronger where the zone was wider. Howard attributed the greater width in the mountains to the wide intermingling and patchy distribution of habitats appropriate for a species adapted to a northern climate and for a species adapted to a southern climate. He also pointed out that the mosaicism and the increased breadth of the zone in the mountains enhanced the probability of occurrence of reinforcement. We tested three predictions that emerged from Howard's hypothesized links among topographic diversity, zone width, and the strength of reproductive isolation. The first two predictions were fulfilled. The northern cricket, A. fasciatus, occurred in the high mountains south of its previously known distributional limit; and the zone narrowed considerably in Illinois, an area of low topographic diversity. These results provide further evidence for the importance of the environment in determining the structure of the zone. The third prediction was falsified. Contrary to the prediction, the strength of reproductive isolation between the two species was as strong in Illinois as in the Appalachian Mountains. This result suggests that if reinforcement has occurred in the zone, the width of the zone has not been a major factor in the process.     

太行花生殖生物学研究I 太行花生境的分析*

对太行花种群地理分布、生境因子等方面的调查表明。太行花分布在太行山东缘。其分布特点是：①在海拔600～1500米之间呈间断、零星、条带状分布;②主要生长在阴坡裸露崖壁的缝穴中。其生境特点是：①夏季炎热多雨,冬季干燥寒冷。昼夜气温变化剧烈;②着生太行花的崖缝土壤极少,有机质贫乏,但含钙量较高;③太行花群落中植物种类稀少,在调查的3个样方中仅有15个种,分属于9个科,11个属,为温带旱生灌草类型。太行花的这种特殊生境,可能是它致濒的直接原因。     

An analysis of fish‐habitat associations on disturbed coral reefs: chaetodontid fishes in New Caledonia

A concordance analysis was used to study the simultaneous influence of several environmental data sets on chaetodontid (butterflyfish) distributions. This multivariate and multitable method enabled the correlation of three types of benthic characteristics (mineral substratum, coverage of structural species and large echinoderms) with butterflyfish abundances in two bays of the urban centre of Nouméa (New Caledonia). The first concordance axis was related to a gradient in the coverage of branching corals. This disturbance gradient compared damaged reef areas dominated by long‐spined sea urchins to areas with an extensive coverage of branching corals. The abundance of corallivorous chaetodontids was related to this gradient, supporting the view of corals as a food and shelter source for these fishes. The second concordance axis was interpreted as a gradient of heterogeneity in the coverage of benthic life‐forms. The abundance of omnivorous chaetodontids was related to this gradient. Thus, the concordance axes defined two key components of habitat structure that were related to the entire fish community structure.     

三峡大老岭地区森林植被的空间格局分析及其地形解释

为探讨地形对景观尺度植被格局的影响,在对三峡大老岭山地森林的大量群落学调查基础上 ,采用７个指标刻画群落生境的地形特征;利用去势典范对应分析（ＤＣＣＡ）排序方法分析不同群落类型的地形分布格局;并定量分离地形、空间及其交互作用等因素对植被格局总体变异的影响。结果表明：上述３方面的贡献分别是９．５０％、５．９４％和６．８１％,地形对植被格局的控制作用显著;但仍有７７．７５％的变异未得到解释。     

Projection areas and branching patterns of the tympanal receptor cells in migratory locusts,Locusta migratoria and Schistocerca gregaria

Summary In Locusta migratoria and Schistocerca gregaria, the projection areas and branching patterns of the tympanal receptor cells in the thoracic ganglia were revealed. Four auditory neuropiles can be distinguished on each side of the ventral cord, always located in the anterior part of the ring tract in each neuromere (two in the meta-, one in the meso-, and one in the prothoracic ganglion). Some of the receptor fibres ascend to the suboesophageal ganglion. There are distinct subdivisions within the auditory, frontal metathoracic and mesothoracic neuropiles. The arrangement of the terminal arborisations of the four types of tympanal receptor cells according to their different frequency-intensity responses is somatotopic and similar in the two ganglia. Here the receptor cells of type-1 form a restricted lateroventral arborisation. Cells of type-4 occupy the caudal part with a dorsorostral extension. Cells of type-2 and -3 arborise in a subdivision between both. Most of the stained low-frequency receptors (type-1, -2, and -3) terminate either in the metathoracic or, predominantly, in the mesothoracic ganglion. In contrast, the high-frequency cells (type-4) ascend to the prothoracic ganglion. The receptor fibres of the different types of receptor cells differ in diameter.Abbreviations aRT anterior part of the ring tract - cf characteristic frequency - MVT median ventral tract - SEG suboesophageal ganglion - SMC supramedian commissure - VMT ventral median tract - VIT ventral intermediate tract Supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft; part of program A7 in Sonderforschungsbereich 305 (Ecophysiology)     

Spatial heterogeneity in the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of a Mediterranean tortoise

Climatic shifts may increase the extinction risk of populations, especially when they are already suffering from other anthropogenic impacts. Our ability to predict the consequences of climate change on endangered species is limited by our scarce knowledge of the effects of climate variability on the population dynamics of most organisms and by the uncertainty of climate projections, which depend strongly on the region of the earth being considered. In this study, we analysed a long‐term monitoring programme (1988–2009) of Hermann's tortoise (Testudo hermanni) aimed at evaluating the consequences of the drastic changes in temperature and precipitation patterns predicted for the Mediterranean region on the demography of a long‐lived species with low dispersal capability and already suffering a large number of threats. Capture–recapture modelling of a population in the Ebro Delta (NE Spain) allowed us to assess the effect of climate variability on the survival of tortoises. Winter rainfall was found to be the major driver of juvenile and immature survival, whereas that of adults remained high and constant across the study. Furthermore, local climate series obtained ad hoc from regional climate simulations, for this and 10 additional Mediterranean locations where tortoises occurred, provided us with reliable future climate forecasts, which were used to simulate the fate of these populations under three precipitation scenarios (mean, wet and dry) using stochastic population modelling. We show that a shift to a more arid climate would have negative consequences for population persistence, enhancing juvenile mortality and increasing quasiextinction risk because of a decrease in recruitment. These processes varied depending on the population and the climate scenario we considered, but our results suggest that unless other human‐induced causes of mortality are suppressed (e.g. poaching, fire, habitat fragmentation), climate variability will increase extinction risk within most of the species’ current range.     

Spatial Scale or Amplitude of Predictors as Determinants of the Relative Importance of Environmental Factors to Plant Community Structure

The literature on tropical rain forest plant‐community relationships with environmental factors usually does not recognize that the relative importance of environmental factors recorded in each study might be due to their amplitude of variation within sites. Geographic scale, however, is recognized as an important modulator of this relative importance. To disentangle the effects of scale and environmental amplitude, ferns and trees in two landscapes of the same size (each 25 km²) with different soil‐fertility amplitudes but similar soil‐texture range were sampled in central Amazonia. We found that major determinants of community structure were the same for ferns and trees. Texture was the main predictor of community structure in the site with homogeneous soil fertility, while availability of exchangeable cations was the main predictor in the site with a wider fertility range. When both sites were analyzed together, soil fertility was the main predictor of community structure and soil texture segregated floristic subgroups within certain ranges of the soil‐fertility gradient. We conclude that: (1) floristic patterns for trees and ferns are congruent; (2) floristic variation depends on the amplitude of the studied gradients, more than on geographical scale; (3) limiting factors are not necessarily the most important predictors of compositional patterns; and (4) communities are structured hierarchically. Therefore, landscape structure (meaning which combinations of environmental factors, their amplitude of variation and which part of the gradient is found within the landscape) affect our perception of the relative importance that environmental factors will have as predictors of species composition.