Conditional and Unconditional Simulation of Healthy Patients' Visual Fields

This paper describes a simulation problem, motivated by the study of glaucoma, a very serious and widespread ocular illness. To ascertain whether a patient suffers from glaucoma, a perimetric test is done, but the evolution of the disease is very slow, and large longitudinal sets of tests taken on the same patient are needed to study its evolution, to analyze the efficiency of existing methods to detect the progression of glaucoma and to develop new ones. Simulation can be a very useful procedure to get appropriate data sets to work with. Our aim in this work is to simulate several VFs in a healthy patient to reflect his evolution in time. We use a spatio‐temporal model to simulate from, taking into account the correlation existing between the observed (or simulated) values in space and time. Two different simulation procedures (unconditional and conditional) are studied, and applied to obtain the simulations we are interested in. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Phylogeography of the leaf beetle Chrysolina virgata in wetlands of Japan inferred from the distribution of mitochondrial haplotypes

The genetic differentiation among populations of the leaf beetle Chrysolina virgata living in wetlands of Japan was studied based on the sequence data of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I gene region (750 bp). Two distinct lineages of mitochondrial haplotypes were found: one (clade A) consisted of 26 haplotypes distributed over the distribution range of C. virgata between north‐east Honshu and Kyushu, whereas the other (clade B) was monotypic and confined to a small region in north‐east Honshu where it coexisted with clade A. Nested clade analysis for these haplotypes suggested that range expansion and following differentiation due to isolation by distance might have resulted in the present distribution pattern of the haplotypes in clade A. We discuss the evolutionary process leading to the occurrence of two distinct haplotype clades in Japan in terms of repeated colonization from the continent and range expansion and contraction during climatic changes.     

Reaction mechanism of surfactant‐sensitized chemiluminescence of bis(2,4,6‐trichlorophyenyl) oxalate and hydrogen peroxide induced by gold nanoparticles

The chemiluminescence (CL) of bis(2,4,6‐trichlorophyenyl) oxalate with hydrogen peroxide in the present of cationic surfactant and gold nanoparticles was studied. The CL emission was obviously enhanced in the presence of surfactant at a suitable concentration, with a synergetic catalysis effect exhibited. Different sizes of gold nanoparticles (15 and 50 nm) showed different effects on CL intensity. Mechanisms of the CL reaction and sensitization effect are discussed. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conditional Maximum Likelihood Estimation Following a Group Sequential Test

We consider estimation after a group sequential test. An estimator that is unbiased or has small bias may have substantial conditional bias (Troendle and Yu, 1999, Coburger and Wassmer, 2001). In this paper we derive the conditional maximum likelihood estimators of both the primary parameter and a secondary parameter, and investigate their properties within a conditional inference framework. The method applies to both the usual and adaptive group sequential test designs. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Integrated palaeoecological and historical data in the service of fine-resolution land use and ecological change assessment during the last 1000 years in Rõuge, southern Estonia

Aims Our aim is to reconstruct decadal scale development of historical landscapes during the last 1000 years by means of fossil pollen analysis of annually laminated lake sediments, and detailed historical maps and documents. Location Lake Rõuge Tõugjärv (Estonia), a small lake with annually laminated lake sediments situated in a dense prehistoric setting. Methods The chronology of the palaeodata is based on the annual laminations supported by AMS ¹⁴C and ²¹⁰Pb dating and ¹³⁷Cs, ²⁴¹Am, and spheroidal carbonaceous particle marker horizons. The time‐scale and resolution allows fine sampling (the pollen samples generally comprise 3.5 years) and vegetation change reconstruction. Relevant source area of pollen (RSAP) of the lake was estimated, and the statistical zonation, rate of change, palynological richness, and DCA and PCA ordinations were generated on the basis of the pollen data. The historical calibration data set (maps, numerical information on population, domestic stock, farmland division, etc.) is based on archival material preserved in the Estonian Historical Archives. Results The topmost part (0–180 cm) of the sediment column of Lake Rõuge Tõugjärv, covering the last 1000 years, is visibly laminated carbonaceous gyttja. The varve chronology extends from ad 2000 to ad 1339, with a cumulative ± 9‐year error estimate. Beyond this the chronology is extrapolated using the ¹⁴C date and varve age–depth estimations. The simulation of the RSAP of Lake Tõugjärv shows that the major portion of the pollen loading originating from local vegetation is derived from plants growing within 2000 m of the sampling site. The pollen record divides into five statistically significant subgroups, which fall on the PCA plot into three clusters reflecting the general openness–closedness of the landscape. During the period between ad 1000 and 1200 (RT 1) the Rõuge area was generally wooded with birch, spruce and pine forests. The advancement of extensive farming gradually opened up the landscape between ad 1200 and 1650 (RT 2 and RT 3). The maximum openness of the landscape was reached between ad 1650 and 1875 (RT 4), with the most open period in the late eighteenth century. Historical maps from 1684 and 1870–99 and available quantitative data on population, domestic stock, farmland division, etc. show the same trend. The pollen data covering the last 125 years, and maps from 1935 and 1995, show the reduction of arable land in RSAP of the lake under investigation and the reduction of open land to an extent comparable with the end of the seventeenth century. Main conclusions The formation and development of the cultural landscape at Rõuge over the last 1000 years is characterized by rapid changes in floristic richness and rates of vegetation change attributed to certain historic processes in the RSAP. Five phases of landscape and social development are clearly distinguished during the last 1000 years. The decadal scale vegetation response to human‐induced forcing agrees with historical maps and documents and could be used for past landscapes prior to the period with solid historical data.     

Phyletic coevolution between subterranean rodents of the genus Ctenomys (Rodentia: Hystricognathi) and nematodes of the genus Paraspidodera (Heterakoidea: Aspidoderidae) in the Neotropics: temporal and evolutionary implications

Coevolution was studied in six species of rodents of the genus Ctenomys and their parasitic nematodes of the genus Paraspidodera , collected in Bolivia. Representatives of the families Octodontidae and Caviidae were used as outgroups for the mammals, and nematodes from caviids were used as outgroups of the nematodes from ctenomyids. For the nematodes, quantitative and qualitative morphological characteristics of both males and females and electrophoretic characters of both sexes were used to generate phylogenetic hypotheses of evolutionary relationships of the OTUs occurring in hosts of different species. Concordance estimates of cladograms generated from biochemical—genetic and morphological data of the nematodes show a percentage incongruence (Mickevich-Farris Incongruence Statistic or I _MF) of 8.23% in the character sets. Parsimony mapping, testing concordance of topologies between the trees derived from both analysis of both morphological and biochemical—genetic data indicates an overall agreement of 82.3°. Comparisons of topologies of the host and parasite cladograms, as measured with parsimony mapping, showed 70.8% concordance, indicating substantially more cospeciation than host-switching in the Ctenomys-Paraspidodera host-parasite system. Nematodes of the genus Paraspidodera appear to have invaded the Ctenomys lineage from an origin in caviids sometime before the ctenomyids began to diversify in early Pleistocene time.     

Describing Ordinal Odds Ratios for Stratified r × c Tables

For an r × ctable with ordinal responses, odds ratios are commonly used to describe the relationship between the row and column variables. This article shows two types of ordinal odds ratios where local‐global odds ratios are used to compare several groups on a c‐category ordinal response and a global odds ratio is used to measure the global association between a pair of ordinal responses. When there is a stratification factor, we consider Mantel‐Haenszel (MH) type estimators of these odds ratios to summarize the association from several strata. Like the ordinary MH estimator of the common odds ratio for several 2 × 2 contingency tables, the estimators are used when the association is not expected to vary drastically among the strata. Also, the estimators are consistent under the ordinary asymptotic framework in which the number of strata is fixed and also under sparse asymptotics in which the number of strata grows with the sample size. Compared to the maximum likelihood estimators, simulations find that the MH type estimators perform better especially when each stratum has few observations. This article provides variances and covariances formulae for the local‐global odds ratios estimators and applies the bootstrap method to obtain a standard error for the global odds ratio estimator. At the end, we discuss possible ways of testing the homogeneity assumption.     

Phylogeny and biogeography of the Vitrinidae (Gastropoda: Stylommatophora)

The phylogeny of the Vitrinidae is reconstructed in a cladistic analysis based on characters of the genitalia, the copulation behaviour and the radula. The genera with an atrial stimulator turned out to be the earliest branches of the Vitrinidae, whereas the genera with a glandula amatoria form a monophyletic, taxonomically apomorphic group. The differences between the proposed phylogeny and previous hypotheses are discussed. The ancestral areas of the Vitrinidae and its sister group, the limacoid slugs Boettgerillidae–Limacidae–Agriolimacidae, are estimated using weighted ancestral area analysis. The Vitrinidae and the limacoid slugs might have originated by a vicariance event between Central Europe and the Near East. © 2002 The Linnean Society of London. Zoological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2002, 134 , 347–358.     

Coexistence of natural enemies in a multitrophic host–parasitoid system

Abstract.  1. This study explored the temporal and spatial aspects of coexistence over many generations in a multispecies host–parasitoid assemblage.
2. The long-term interaction between the cabbage root fly, Delia radicum (Diptera: Anthomyiidae), and two of its natural enemies, Trybliographa rapae (Hymenoptera: Fitigidae) and Aleochara bilineata (Coleoptera: Staphylinidae), in a cultivated field at Silwood Park over 19 years was explored.
3. Although time series showed that the populations were regulated, the impact of the natural enemies was highly variable. Within-year determinants showed that the spatial response of the specialist parasitoid, T. rapae , was predominantly independent of host density while A. bilineata acted simply as a randomly foraging generalist parasitoid.
4. These findings are compared and contrasted with an earlier investigation of the same system when only the first 9 years of the time series were available. This study demonstrated the potential of long-term field studies for exploring hypotheses on population regulation, persistence, and coexistence.     

Introducing the Multivariate Dale Model in Population‐Based Genetic Association Studies

Until recently, the most common parametric approaches to study the combined effects of several genetic polymorphisms located within a gene or in a small genomic region are, at the genotype level, logistic regressions and at the haplotype level, haplotype analyses. An alternative modeling approach, based on the case/control principle, is to regard exposures (e.g., genetic data such as derived from Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms – SNPs) as random and disease status as fixed and to use a marginal multivariate model that accounts for inter‐relationships between exposures. One such model is the multivariate Dale model. This model is based on multiple logistic regressions. That is why the model, applied in a case/control setting, leads to straightforward interpretations that are similar to those drawn in a classical logistic modeling framework. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)