Evaluating Dependence Among Mule Deer Siblings in Fetal and Neonatal Survival Analyses

Abstract: The assumption of independent sample units is potentially violated in survival analyses where siblings comprise a high proportion of the sample. Violation of the independence assumption causes sample data to be overdispersed relative to a binomial model, which leads to underestimates of sampling variances. A variance inflation factor, c, is therefore required to obtain appropriate estimates of variances. We evaluated overdispersion in fetal and neonatal mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) datasets where more than half of the sample units were comprised of siblings. We developed a likelihood function for estimating fetal survival when the fates of some fetuses are unknown, and we used several variations of the binomial model to estimate neonatal survival. We compared theoretical variance estimates obtained from these analyses with empirical variance estimates obtained from data-bootstrap analyses to estimate the overdispersion parameter, c. Our estimates of c for fetal survival ranged from 0.678 to 1.118, which indicate little to no evidence of overdispersion. For neonatal survival, 3 different models indicated that ĉ ranged from 1.1 to 1.4 and averaged 1.24–1.26, providing evidence of limited overdispersion (i.e., limited sibling dependence). Our results indicate that fates of sibling mule deer fetuses and neonates may often be independent even though they have the same dam. Predation tends to act independently on sibling neonates because of dam-neonate behavioral adaptations. The effect of maternal characteristics on sibling fate dependence is less straightforward and may vary by circumstance. We recommend that future neonatal survival studies incorporate additional sampling intensity to accommodate modest overdispersion (i.e., ĉ = 1.25), which would facilitate a corresponding ĉ adjustment in a model selection analysis using quasi-likelihood without a reduction in power. Our computational approach could be used to evaluate sample unit dependence in other studies where fates of individually marked siblings are monitored.     

Piping Plover Chick Foraging,Growth, and Survival in the Great Plains

Abstract: We tested the hypothesis that piping plover (Charadrius melodus) habitat quality and chick survival on the Missouri River, USA, were lower on a cold-water reservoir and downstream from a hypolimnetic (cold-water) release dam with diel water fluctuations (Garrison Dam) than downstream from an epilimnetic dam (Gavins Point Dam). Plovers in adjacent alkali wetlands provided an index to the maximum reproductive potential in the region. Chicks gained weight more rapidly in the alkali wetlands than on epilimnetic and hypolimnetic river reaches. Invertebrate numbers and biomass were higher in the wetlands and epilimnetic reach, but chick survival was lower on the epilimnetic reach. Thus, piping plovers adapted to a variety of prey densities, and other factors, likely predation, reduced survival rates in the epilimnetic reach. Temporal and spatial variability in site quality indices suggests the need for a regional management strategy with different strategies at each site. Managers can minimize effects of local fluctuations in resource abundance and predators by ensuring protection of or creating geographically dispersed habitat. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 72(3):682–687; 2008)     

Common Loon Survival Rates and Mercury in New England and Wisconsin

Abstract: Bioaccumulation of toxic environmental mercury may affect the vital rates of piscivores such as the common loon (Gavia immer). Although immediate effects of mercury on early development or reproduction can be determined from short-term field studies or dosing experiments, long-term effects on survival for a long-lived species such as the common loon must be discerned from large, long-term observational data sets. We analyzed band-resight and mercury data for 776 adult loons in Wisconsin and New England, USA, from 1991 to 2001 to 1) estimate annual survival rates and 2) investigate the relation between mercury exposure and survival. The model-averaged estimate of apparent survival was 0.87, whereas the approximate survival rate (accounting for movement) was 0.92. We found no differences in apparent survival by geographic location or sex and no relation between survival and mercury. Power analyses showed that we were only likely to detect differences in survival ≥3%. Small differences in survival (<3%), which may be important to loon population viability, were unlikely to be detected in our dataset. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 72(3):665–673; 2008)     

Demographic Sensitivity of Population Change in Northern Bobwhite

Abstract: The northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) is an economically important gamebird that is currently undergoing widespread population declines. Despite considerable research on the population ecology of bobwhites, there have been few attempts to model population dynamics of bobwhites to determine the contributions of different demographic parameters to variance of the finite rate of population change (Λ). We conducted a literature review and compiled 405 estimates of 9 demographic parameters from 49 field studies of bobwhites. To identify demographic parameters that might be important for management, we used life-stage simulation analyses (LSA) to examine sensitivity of Λ to simulated variation in 9 demographic parameters for female bobwhites. In a baseline LSA based on uniform distributions bounded by the range of estimates for each demographic parameter, bobwhite populations were predicted to decline (Λ = 0.56) and winter survival of adults made the greatest contribution to variance of Λ (r² = 0.453), followed by summer survival of adults (r² = 0.163), and survival of chicks (r² = 0.120). Population change was not sensitive to total clutch laid, nest survival, egg hatchability, or 3 parameters associated with the number of nesting attempts (r²<0.06). Our conclusions were robust to alternative simulation scenarios, and parameter rankings changed only if we adjusted the lower bounds of winter survival upwards. Bobwhite populations were not viable with survival rates reported from most field studies. Survival rates may be depressed below sustainable levels by environmental conditions or possibly by impacts of capture and telemetry methods. Overall, our simulation results indicate that management practices that improve seasonal survival rates will have the greatest potential benefit for recovery of declining populations of bobwhites.     

Correlates of Mortality in an Exploited Wolf Population

Abstract We investigated the influence of habitat use on risk of death from hunting and trapping of 55 radiocollared gray wolves (Canis lupus) from an exploited insular population in Southeast Alaska, USA. We compared mortality rates for resident and nonresident wolves and used Cox proportional hazards regression to relate habitat composition within 100-m circular buffers around radiolocations to risk of death of resident and nonresident wolves. In addition, we included covariates representing distances to roads, logged stands, and lakes and streams in those analyses. We also compiled harvest data from 31 harvest units within the study area to compare densities of roads and distances from human settlements with rates of harvest. During our study 39 wolves died, of which 18 were harvested legally, 16 were killed illegally, and 5 died from natural causes. Legal and illegal harvest accounted for >87% of the mortality of radiocollared resident and nonresident wolves. Mean annual survival was 0.54 (SE = 0.17) for all wolves. Annual survival was 0.65 (SE = 0.17) for resident wolves and 0.34 (SE = 0.17) for nonresidents. Very few (19%) nonresident wolves survived to colonize vacant territories or join existing wolf packs. Roads, muskegs, and distances from lakes and streams were covariates positively associated with death of resident wolves. Clear-cuts were positively associated with risk of death of nonresident wolves. Rate of harvest increased with density of roads; however, road densities >0.9 km/km² had little additional effect on harvest rates. Harvest rates decreased with ocean distances from nearest towns or settlements. Roads clearly increased risk of death for wolves from hunting and trapping and contributed to unsustainable rates of harvest. Wildlife managers should consider effects of roads and other habitat features on harvest of wolves when developing harvest recommendations. They should expect substantial illegal harvest where wolf habitat is accessible to humans. Moreover, high rates of mortality of nonresident wolves exposed to legal and illegal harvest may reduce or delay successful dispersal, potentially affecting linkages between small disjunct wolf populations or population segments. We conclude that a combination of conservative harvest regulations and large roadless reserves likely are the most effective measures for conserving wolves where risks from human-caused mortality are high.     

Factors Influencing Nesting Success of King Eiders on Northern Alaska's Coastal Plain

Abstract: King eider (Somateria spectabilis) populations have declined markedly in recent decades for unknown reasons. Nest survival is one component of recruitment, and a female's chance of reproductive success increases with her ability to choose an appropriate nesting strategy. We estimated variation in daily nest survival of king eiders at 2 sites, Teshekpuk and Kuparuk, Alaska, USA, 2002–2005. We evaluated both a priori and exploratory competing models of nest survival that considered importance of nest concealment, seclusion, and incubation constancy as strategies to avoid 2 primary egg predators, avian (Larus spp., Stercorarius spp., and Corvus corax) and fox (Alopex lagopus). We used generalized nonlinear techniques to examine factors affecting nest survival rates and information-theoretic approaches to select among competing models. Estimated nest survival, accounting for a nest visitation effect, varied considerably across sites and years (0.21–0.57); however, given our small sample size, much of this variation may be attributable to sampling variation (s̀²_process = 0.007, 95% CI: 0.003–0.070). Nest survival was higher at Kuparuk than Teshekpuk in all years; however, due to the correlative nature of our data, we cannot determine the underlying causes with any certainty. We found mixed support for the concealed breeding strategy; females derived no benefit from nesting in areas with more willow (Salix spp.; measure of concealment) except that the observer effect diminished as willow cover increased. We suggest these patterns are due to conflicting predation pressures. Nest survival was not higher on islands (measure of seclusion) or with increased incubation constancy but was higher post-fox removal, indicating that predator control on breeding grounds could be a viable management option. Nest survival was negatively affected by our nest visitations, most likely by exposing the nest to avian scavengers. We recommend precautions be taken to limit the effects of nest visits in future studies and to consider them as a possible negative bias in estimated nest survival. Future models of the impacts of development within the breeding grounds of king eider should consider the influence of humans in the vicinity of nests.     

Seasonal Survival of Radiomarked Emperor Geese in Western Alaska

Abstract The population of emperor geese (Chen canagica) in western Alaska, USA, declined by >50% from the 1960s to the mid-1980s and has increased only slightly since. Rates of population increase among arctic geese are especially sensitive to changes in adult survival. Improving adult survival in seasons or geographic areas where survival is low may be the best means of increasing the emperor goose population. We monitored fates of 133 adult female emperor geese that were radiomarked with surgically implanted very high frequency or satellite radiotransmitters from 1999 to 2004 to assess whether monthly survival varied among years, seasons, or geographic areas. Because of uncertainties in determining whether a bird had died based on the radio signal, we analyzed 2 versions of the data. One version used conservative criteria to identify which birds had died based on radio signals and the other used more liberal criteria. In the conservative version of the data we detected 12 mortalities of emperor geese, whereas in the liberal interpretation there were 18 mortalities. In both versions, the models with greatest support indicated that monthly survival varied seasonally and that compared to most seasons estimated monthly survival was lower (φ = 0.95–0.98) in May and August when emperor geese were mainly on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. From 44% to 47% of annual mortality occurred in those months. Estimated monthly survival was higher (φ = 0.98–1.0) from September through March when emperor geese were at autumn staging or wintering areas and in June and July when birds were nesting, rearing broods, or molting. Estimated annual survival was 0.85 (95% CI = 0.77–0.92) in the best-supported model when we used conservative criteria to identify mortalities and 0.79 (95% CI = 0.74–0.85) under the best model using liberal mortality criteria. Lower survival in August and May corresponded to periods when subsistence harvest of emperor geese was likely highest. Managers may be able to most effectively influence population growth rate of emperor geese by reducing subsistence harvest on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in May and August.     

Disentangling allometry and response to Kellwasser anoxic events in the Late Devonian conodont genus Ancyrodella

Is the ability to respond to minor perturbations a key to survival to major crisis? This idea was supported by previous studies on Late Devonian conodonts. Genera surviving the Frasnian/Famennian (F/F) crisis, at the end of the Upper Kellwasser anoxic event, had shown a response to a similar but minor event, the Lower Kellwasser (LKW). In contrast, the genus Ancyrodella went extinct at the F/F crisis. This study aims to assess whether this extinction was associated with the absence of response to the minor LKW event. For this purpose, the shape of the P1 platform elements of the conodont Ancyrodella curvata was quantified based on their 2‐D outlines. Conodonts were extracted from two outcrops documenting the Late Devonian Kellwasser events, Coumiac (France) and Mrirt (Morocco). Ancyrodella curvata is characterized by a marked allometric growth that may blur any other source of shape difference, like response to the LKW. Hence, a multivariate method was developed to disentangle size‐free from size‐related shape variations. No coherent temporal size variations emerged from the analysis, but allometry occurring along the growth of the element indeed appeared as the prevailing source of shape variation. By isolating size‐free variations, however, we were able to evidence a morphometric response of A. curvata to the LKW independent from the allometric pattern. Hence, the extinction of A. curvata at the F/F crisis cannot be attributed to an absence of response to minor events. The amount of shape change involved in the LKW shift is, however, of minor importance in comparison with the shape variation due to allometric growth. Alternate hypotheses have been further investigated. Ancyrodella curvata appears as a rare species in the assemblages, and its distribution worldwide suggests a rather specialist taxon. Considering survivorship curves (i.e. frequency distribution of the conodont as a function of its size) A. curvata was characterized by low and constant mortality rate. This may be a clue for a long growth and progressive investment in the reproduction. These arguments support the view that A. curvata was a rather specialist, rare and ‘K‐selected’ taxon. All these factors may not be exclusive and their unfavourable conjunction might have been the key to the extinction of A. curvata.     

Respiratory activity of yeast Yarrowia lipolytica under oxidative stress and heat shock

Heat shock (45°C) and the effect of oxidants (H₂O₂) resulted in a decrease of the respiratory activity of yeast cells and their survival rate. Increased resistance to stress effects after mild heat treatment (37°C) or treatment with a nonlethal dose of oxidants (0.5 mM H₂O₂) for 60 min) was accompanied by appearance of an alternative (cyanide-resistant) oxidative pathway in the mitochondria, which promotes survival due to retention of the capacity for ATP synthesis in the first coupling point at the level of endogenous NADH dehydrogenase. The alternative oxidative pathway is more resistant to the effect of stressors that disrupt electron transfer in the cytochrome site of the respiratory chain.     

EFFECTS OF LONG-TERM SUBMERGENCE ON SURVIVAL AND RECOVERY GROWTH OF FOUR RIPARIAN PLANT SPECIES IN THREE GORGES RESERVOIR REGION, CHINA

 地瓜藤(Ficus tikoua)、荻(Triarrhena sacchariflora)、牛鞭草(Hemarthria altissima)和狗牙根(Cynodon dactylon)是三峡库区常见的岸生植物, 自然分布于河岸带不同垂直高程的地段。为了明确它们在成库后“三峡库区消落区”长期完全水淹条件下的存活和生长情况, 实验设置对照(不进行水淹, 常规供水管理)和完全水淹两个处理, 30、60、90、120、150和180 d 6个水淹时间水平, 研究了4种植物在完全水淹条件下的存活、生物量变化和恢复生长。结果发现: 1) 4种植物在完全水淹条件下的存活率与其在河岸带上的垂直分布高程密切相关。分布于距江面高程较高的河岸段的地瓜藤植株, 在全淹30 d后就全部死亡; 分布在中高程河岸段的荻在全淹150和180 d后全部死亡; 可以分布于低高程河岸段的牛鞭草和狗牙根, 淹没180 d后存活率分别为90%和100%。2)全淹抑制了荻、牛鞭草和狗牙根的生长, 总生物量增量显著低于对照植株。与水淹0 d相比, 全淹处理植株的地上部分生物量显著降低, 荻在全淹60和120 d后, 地下部分生物量显著降低, 但牛鞭草和狗牙根的地下部分生物量与水淹0 d水平相比无显著差异。3)水淹处理结束后, 存活的荻、牛鞭草和狗牙根植株都能很好地恢复生长。在恢复生长过程中, 全淹30、60和90 d后, 荻、牛鞭草和狗牙根植株的总分枝长相对生长速率与对照植株无显著差异, 全淹120、150和180 d后, 牛鞭草和狗牙根植株的总分枝长相对生长速率显著高于对照植株。全淹处理的荻、牛鞭草和狗牙根植株的总叶片数相对生长速率始终显著高于对照植株。遭受长期完全水淹后, 植株在有限的营养储备条件下, 快速产生叶片以迅速积聚光合产物可能是植物更为优化的恢复生长方式。