Confirmation bias affects user perception of knee braces

Technological advances in orthopedic devices such as prostheses and orthoses are intended to improve function but may also result in increased complexity and expense. Consequently, accurate determination of effectiveness is important. When devices with advanced technology are used, it is possible that confirmation bias – the tendency for a user to actually experience what he or she expects to experience – will influence outcomes. This study assessed confirmation bias in 18 healthy young adults walking in knee braces. Participants wore two identical braces, but one was cosmetically modified and participants were told that it was a prototype computerized brace that could dynamically alter its stiffness. Before using the braces, the majority of users indicated a preference for the “computerized” brace. Actual walking showed no differences between the two braces. Following walking, users maintained preference for the “computerized” brace, indicating the presence of confirmation bias. These results underscore the importance of blinding when self-reported outcomes are used and the need to consider a placebo effect when comparing orthopedic devices.     

Commercially available luminometers and imaging devices for low-light measurements and kits and reagents utilizing bioluminescence or chemiluminescence: Survey update I

This survey update was compiled in June 1993 and includes products not covered in the luminometer survey (Jan 1992; Stanley, PE. J Biolumin Chemilumin 1992; 7:77–108 and 7:157–69) and kit and reagent survey (Nov 1992; Stanley, PE. J Biolumin Chemilumin 1993; 8:51–63). Some products are new whilst for others details have only recently become available to the author. Technical details are provided together with company address and contact information.     

Adaptive Sex‐Specific Cognitive Bias in Predation Behaviours of Japanese Pygmy Squid

Errors in decision‐making in animals can be partially explained by adaptive evolution, and error management theory explains that cognitive biases result from the asymmetric costs of false‐positive and false‐negative errors. Error rates that result from the cognitive bias may differ between sexes. In addition, females are expected to have higher feeding rates than males because of the high energy requirements of gamete production. Thus, females may suffer relatively larger costs from false‐negative errors (i.e. non‐feeding) than males, and female decisions would be biased to reduce these costs if the costs of false‐positive errors are not as high. Females would consequently overestimate their capacity in relation to the probability of predation success. We tested this hypothesis using the Japanese pygmy squid Idiosepius paradoxus. Our results show that size differences between the squid and prey shrimp affected predatory attacks, and that predatory attacks succeeded more often when the predator was relatively larger than the prey. Nevertheless, compared to male predatory attacks, female squid frequently attacked even if their size was relatively small compared to the prey, suggesting that the females overestimated their probability of success. However, if the females failed in the first attack, they subsequently adjusted their attack threshold: squid did not attack again if the prey size was relatively larger. These results suggest a sex‐specific cognitive bias, that is females skewed judgment in decision‐making for the first predation attack, but they also show that squid can modify their threshold to determine whether they should attack in subsequent encounters.     

Factors affecting detection probability of burrowing owls in southwest agroecosystem environments

Estimating range-wide population trends of western burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) requires standardized survey protocols that correct for detection bias in environments that support large owl populations. High concentrations of owls exist in irrigated agroecosystems within the southwest United States, yet little is known about the factors that affect detection bias during owl surveys in these systems. I used closed-population capture-recapture models to evaluate 4 factors that could affect the probability of a surveyor detecting an owl activity center (i.e., nest burrow) during visual surveys where owls are the focal object and analyzed the relationship (linear or curvilinear) between specific factors and detection probability. I recorded 1,199 detections of owls from 132 capture-recapture surveys within 12 sites of the Imperial Valley agroecosystem in California, USA between 16 April and 20 May 2006. I also conducted 96 time budget surveys throughout the day and used mixed linear models to evaluate the effect of each factor on probability of an owl activity center being available for detection (i.e., ≥1 owls above ground) during surveys. Model selection results indicated that detection probability was influenced by ambient air temperature interacting with wind speed. Detection probability followed a curvilinear relationship that resembled bell-shaped curve along a temperature gradient, with the maximum detection probability shifting as a function of wind speed. At low temperatures, detection probability declined with increased wind speed, but this relationship was reversed at high temperatures, producing a 3-dimensional pattern in detection probability characterized by a saddle-shaped hyperbolic paraboloid response surface. The probability of an activity center being available for detection declined curvilinearly with increased temperature and explained 51% of the variation in detection probability. Given the broad range of detection probabilities, correcting visual survey counts for detection bias is necessary for comparing population estimates among regions and through time. Survey designs intended to estimate abundance of owls in southwest agroecosystems should incorporate methods to estimate and correct for variation in detection probability that include measurements of ambient temperature and wind speed for use as covariates. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Novel ‘stratified‐meander’ technique improves survey effort of the rare Pagoda Rock Daisy growing remotely on rocky cliff edges

This pilot study of the rare Pagoda Rock Daisy (Leucochrysum graminifolium) in the western Blue Mountains of New South Wales (Australia) proposes a simple survey method combining timed meander and grid‐cell survey design to improve the survey effort required for monitoring of species growing in remote and/or inaccessible field locations. Where Pagoda Rock Daisies were known to be present, detection time was both rapid and effective (mean of 4.9 min for each 1 ha grid). Notably, the total survey effort remained constant for all grids, even though Pagoda Rock Daisies were unevenly distributed in the landscape (approximately 17 min/ha). Ultimately, the time required to traverse the landscape was deemed to be the primary limiting factor affecting survey effort. The application of this method is not restricted to challenging locations such as cliff edges; this method could be scaled according to the landscape or organism under investigation, providing a rapid method for surveying and monitoring rare, introduced or other plants from a site‐based scale to a broader geographic area.     

Innocent invaders? A preliminary assessment of Cecropia,an American tree,in Java

Background: Invasive alien species receive little attention in many tropical countries.

Aims: We examine the Neotropical tree genus Cecropia in West Java and ask how eradication decisions should be judged given limited resources.

Methods: The distribution was determined based on field searches. The history, impacts and perceptions of Cecropia were examined through official records, observations, interviews and published literature.

Results : At least four Cecropia species were planted in the Bogor Botanic Gardens, West Java Province, Indonesia, during the twentieth century but only C. peltata appears to have naturalised extensively. Since 1943 Cecropia has spread over 1290 km². Implied mean rates of spread range from 0.13 km year^?1 to 0.68 km year^?1, with the fastest rates occurring down-slope and along river valleys. It has reached Jakarta to the north and the Mount Gede-Pangrango National Park to the south. It occurs only in open and disturbed locations. Local farmers consider Cecropia only a minor nuisance. We review 15 other reports of Cecropia naturalised outside the Neotropics.

Conclusions: Without control, Cecropia may eventually become common throughout Java. There is no evidence that any serious problem will, or will not result. We call for the development and implementation of low-cost and decisive assessment procedures for evaluating the control and management of naturalised organisms.     

THE EFFECT OF UNMEASURED CONFOUNDERS ON THE ABILITY TO ESTIMATE A TRUE PERFORMANCE OR SELECTION GRADIENT (AND OTHER PARTIAL REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS)

Multiple regression of observational data is frequently used to infer causal effects. Partial regression coefficients are biased estimates of causal effects if unmeasured confounders are not in the regression model. The sensitivity of partial regression coefficients to omitted confounders is investigated with a Monte‐Carlo simulation. A subset of causal traits is “measured” and their effects are estimated using ordinary least squares regression and compared to their expected values. Three major results are: (1) the error due to confounding is much larger than that due to sampling, especially with large samples, (2) confounding error shrinks trivially with sample size, and (3) small true effects are frequently estimated as large effects. Consequently, confidence intervals from regression are poor guides to the true intervals, especially with large sample sizes. The addition of a confounder to the model improves estimates only 55% of the time. Results are improved with complete knowledge of the rank order of causal effects but even with this omniscience, measured intervals are poor proxies for true intervals if there are many unmeasured confounders. The results suggest that only under very limited conditions can we have much confidence in the magnitude of partial regression coefficients as estimates of causal effects.     

Probability of detection of Flammulated Owls using nocturnal broadcast surveys

ABSTRACT Broadcasts of conspecific vocalizations are used to increase detection rates on surveys of secretive bird species, yet the assessment of detectability necessary to fully interpret such survey data is frequently lacking. We used radiotelemetry to evaluate the probability of detection of 17 radio‐tagged male Flammulated Owls (Otus flammeolus) using conspecific broadcast surveys in Idaho during 2005 and 2006. Probability of detection among the 11 paired, five unpaired, and one unknown pairing status owls was 100% during the pair‐bonding and incubation periods of the breeding season, after which it declined to less than 15% during the postfledging period. Paired males showed a different pattern than unpaired males. Following hatching of eggs, detectability of paired males declined gradually over a 6‐week period, whereas detectability of unpaired males dropped sharply for a 4‐week period before increasing during the postfledging period. We suggest that surveys for Flammulated Owls be conducted during the pair‐bonding and incubation periods when high detectability permits stronger inference concerning the presence or absence of owls based on broadcast survey detections.     

A genetic linkage map of red drum,Sciaenops ocellatus

Second‐generation, sex‐specific genetic linkage maps were generated for the economically important estuarine‐dependent marine fish Sciaenops ocellatus (red drum). The maps were based on F₁ progeny from each of two single‐pair mating families. A total of 237 nuclear‐encoded microsatellite markers were mapped to 25 linkage groups. The female map contained 226 markers, with a total length of 1270.9 centiMorgans (cM) and an average inter‐marker interval of 6.53 cM; the male map contained 201 markers, with a total length of 1122.9 cM and an average inter‐marker interval of 6.03 cM. The overall recombination rate was approximately equal in the two sexes (♀:♂ = 1.03:1). Recombination rates in a number of linkage intervals, however, differed significantly between the same sex in both families and between sexes within families. The former occurred in 2.4% of mapped intervals, while the latter occurred in 51.2% of mapped intervals. Sex‐specific recombination rates varied within chromosomes, with regions of both female‐biased and male‐biased recombination. Original clones from which the microsatellite markers were generated were compared with genome sequence data for the spotted green puffer, Tetraodon nigroviridis; a total of 43 matches were located in 17 of 21 chromosomes of T. nigroviridis, while seven matches were in unknown portions of the T. nigroviridis genome. The map for red drum provides a new, useful tool for aquaculture, population genetics, and comparative genomics of this economically important marine species.