Predicting the unexpected: using a qualitative model of a New Zealand dryland ecosystem to anticipate pest management outcomes

Pest management is expensive and there is often uncertainty about the benefits for the resources being protected. There can also be unintended consequences for other parts of the ecosystem, especially in complex food webs. In making decisions managers generally have to rely on qualitative information collected in a piecemeal fashion. A method to assist decision making is a qualitative modelling approach using fuzzy cognitive maps, a directed graphical model related to neural networks that can take account of interactions between pests and conservation assets in complex food webs. Using all available information on relationships between native and exotic resources and consumers, we generated hypotheses about potential consequences of single‐species and multi‐species pest control on the long‐term equilibrium abundances of other biotic components of an ecosystem. We applied the model to a dryland ecosystem in New Zealand because we had good information on its trophic structure, but the information on the strength of species interactions was imprecise. Our model suggested that pest control is unlikely to significantly boost native invertebrates and lizards in this ecosystem, suggesting that other forms of management may be required for these groups. Most of the pest control regimes tested resulted in greater abundances of at least one other pest species, which could potentially lead to other management problems. Some of the predictions were unexpected, such as more birds resulting from possum and mouse control. We also modelled the effects of an increase in invasive rabbits, which led to unexpected declines of stoats, weasels, mice and possums. These unexpected outcomes resulted from complex indirect pathways in the food web. Fuzzy cognitive maps allow rapid construction of prototype models of complex food webs using a wide range of data and expert opinion. Their utility lies in providing direction for future monitoring efforts and generating hypotheses that can be tested with field experiments.     

Waterlogging and fire impacts on nitrogen availability and utilization in a subtropical wet heathland (wallum)

Protein, amino acids and ammonium were the main forms of soluble soil nitrogen in the soil solution of a subtropical heathland (wallum). After fire, soil ammonium and nitrate increased 90- and 60-fold, respectively. Despite this increase in nitrate availability after fire, wallum species exhibited uniformly low nitrate reductase activities and low leaf and xylem nitrate. During waterlogging soil amino acids increased, particularly γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) which accounted for over 50% of amino nitrogen. Non-mycorrhizal wallum species were significantly (P < 0.05) ¹⁵N-enriched (0.3–4.3‰) compared to species with mycorrhizal associations (ericoid-type, ecto-, va-mycorrhizal) which were strongly depleted in ¹⁵N (-6.3 to -1.8‰). Lignotubers and roots had δ¹⁵N signatures similar to that of the leaves of respective species. The exceptions were fine roots of ecto-, ecto/va-, and ericoid type mycorrhizal species which were enriched in ¹⁵N (0.1–2.4‰). The 5¹⁵N signatures of δ¹⁵N_{total soil N} and δ¹⁵N_{soil NH4+} were in the range 3.7–4.5‰, whereas δ¹⁵N_{soil NO3?} was significantly (P < 0.05) more enriched in ¹⁵N (9.2–9.8‰). It is proposed that there is discrimination against ¹⁵N during transfer of nitrogen from fungal to plant partner. Roots of selected species incorporated nitrogen sources in the order of preference: ammonium > glycine > nitrate. The exception were proteoid roots of Hakea (Proteaceae) which incorporated equal amounts of glycine and ammonium.     

Effects of global change on key processes of primary production in marine ecosystems

工业革命以来, 不断加剧的人类活动所引起的大气CO₂浓度增加、温度上升等全球变化问题, 正使得海洋生态系统面临着前所未有的压力。该文通过文献计量的方法分析了国内外的研究现状, 简要地回顾了全球变化对海洋生态系统影响研究的发展简史, 并聚焦海洋暖化、海洋酸化和富营养化与缺氧这三个核心研究方向, 重点阐述了它们对海洋生态系统初级生产的关键过程的影响, 总结了已取得的重要进展以及存在的主要问题, 最后提出前沿展望。     

基于文化与政治生态学的社会生态系统演进机制研究 ——以杭州与西湖为例

科学认识社会生态系统演进机制是对其进行有效管理的重要基础。以文化与政治生态学为理论基础,提出适合杭州—西湖社会生态系统的综合研究框架,识别了杭州—西湖社会生态系统的5个演进阶段,并分析出系统演进中的3种潜在状态。自然、政治、经济以及社会驱动力是影响杭州—西湖社会生态系统的主导因素,人类行为影响整个生态系统中扰动的频率、大小和形式并改变西湖生态系统的结构与功能,进而影响西湖为城市提供生态系统服务的潜能。在不同历史时期,基于自然、社会、经济、文化等多层面的需求,西湖在不同系统状态下为城市供给不同类别和质量的生态系统服务,总体而言供给与调节服务比例逐渐下降,文化服务逐渐上升,并且后者逐步成为最主要的生态系统服务类别。杭州与西湖在长期的互馈共生中建立了社会生态系统的自适应性调节机制,其背后的生态智慧可为现代风景园林规划提供重要启示。     

Monitoring tropical forests under a functional perspective with satellite‐based vegetation optical depth

Monitoring ecosystem functions in forests is a priority in a climate change scenario, as climate‐induced events may initially alter the functions more than slow‐changing attributes, such as biomass. The ecosystem functional properties (EFPs) are quantities that characterize key ecosystem processes. They can be derived by point observations of gas and energy exchanges between the ecosystems and the atmosphere that are collected globally at FLUXNET flux tower sites and upscaled at ecosystem level. The properties here considered describe the ability of ecosystems to optimize the use of resources for carbon uptake. They represent functional forest information, are dependent on environmental drivers, linked to leaf traits and forest structure, and influenced by climate change effects. The ability of vegetation optical depth (VOD) to provide forest functional information is investigated using 2011–2014 satellite data collected by the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission and using the EFPs as reference dataset. Tropical forests in Africa and South America were analyzed, also according to ecological homogeneous units. VOD jointly with water deficit information explained 93% and 87% of the yearly variability in both flux upscaled maximum gross primary productivity and light use efficiency functional properties, in Africa and South America forests respectively. Maps of the retrieved properties evidenced changes in forest functional responses linked to anomalous climate‐induced events during the study period. The findings indicate that VOD can support the flux upscaling process in the tropical range, affected by high uncertainty, and the detection of forest anomalous functional responses. Preliminary temporal analysis of VOD and EFP signals showed fine‐grained variability in periodicity, in signal dephasing, and in the strength of the relationships. In selected drier forest types, these satellite data could also support the monitoring of functional dynamics.     

Post‐fire development of faunal habitat depends on plant regeneration traits

The concept that vegetation structure (and faunal habitat) develops predictably with time since fire has been central to understanding the relationship between fire and fauna. However, because plants regenerate after fire in different ways (e.g. resprouting from above‐ground stems vs. underground lignotubers), use of simple categories based on time since fire might not adequately represent post‐fire habitat development in all ecosystems. We tested the hypothesis that the post‐fire development of faunal habitat structure differs between ecosystems, depending on fire regeneration traits of the dominant canopy trees. We measured 12 habitat components at sites in foothill forests (n = 38), heathy woodlands (n = 38) and mallee woodlands (n = 98) in Victoria, Australia, and used generalised additive models to predict changes in each variable with time since fire. A greater percentage of faunal habitat variables responded significantly to time since fire in mallee woodlands, where fires typically are stand‐replacing, than in foothill forests and heathy woodlands, where canopy tree stems generally persist through fire. In the ecosystem with the highest proportion of epicormic resprouters (foothill forests), only ground cover and understorey vegetation responded significantly to time since fire, compared with all but one variable in the ecosystem dominated by basal resprouters (mallee woodlands). These differences between ecosystems in the post‐fire development of key habitat components suggest there may also be fundamental differences in the role of fire in shaping the distribution of fauna. If so, this challenges the way in which many fire‐prone ecosystems currently are categorised and managed, especially the level of dependence on time since fire and other temporal surrogates such as age‐classes and successional states. Where time since fire is a poor surrogate for habitat structural development, additional complexity (e.g. fire severity, topography and prior land‐use history) could better capture processes that determine faunal occurrence in fire‐prone ecosystems.     

Alpine grassland plants grow earlier and faster but biomass remains unchanged over 35 years of climate change

Satellite data indicate significant advancement in alpine spring phenology over decades of climate warming, but corresponding field evidence is scarce. It is also unknown whether this advancement results from an earlier shift of phenological events, or enhancement of plant growth under unchanged phenological pattern. By analyzing a 35‐year dataset of seasonal biomass dynamics of a Tibetan alpine grassland, we show that climate change promoted both earlier phenology and faster growth, without changing annual biomass production. Biomass production increased in spring due to a warming‐induced earlier onset of plant growth, but decreased in autumn due mainly to increased water stress. Plants grew faster but the fast‐growing period shortened during the mid‐growing season. These findings provide the first in situ evidence of long‐term changes in growth patterns in alpine grassland plant communities, and suggest that earlier phenology and faster growth will jointly contribute to plant growth in a warming climate.