Bayesian Quantile Regression for Longitudinal Studies with Nonignorable Missing Data

Summary .  We study quantile regression (QR) for longitudinal measurements with nonignorable intermittent missing data and dropout. Compared to conventional mean regression, quantile regression can characterize the entire conditional distribution of the outcome variable, and is more robust to outliers and misspecification of the error distribution. We account for the within-subject correlation by introducing a   ℓ₂   penalty in the usual QR check function to shrink the subject-specific intercepts and slopes toward the common population values. The informative missing data are assumed to be related to the longitudinal outcome process through the shared latent random effects. We assess the performance of the proposed method using simulation studies, and illustrate it with data from a pediatric AIDS clinical trial.     

Measuring sexual selection on females in sex‐role‐reversed Mormon crickets (Anabrus simplex,Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae)

Although many studies examine the form of sexual selection in males, studies characterizing this selection in females remain sparse. Sexual selection on females is predicted for sex‐role‐reversed Mormon crickets, Anabrus simplex, where males are choosy of mates and nutrient‐deprived females compete for matings and nutritious nuptial gifts. We used selection analyses to describe the strength and form of sexual selection on female morphology. There was no positive linear sexual selection on the female body size traits predicted to be associated with male preferences and female competition. Instead, we detected selection for decreasing head width and mandible length, with stabilizing selection as the dominant form of nonlinear selection. Additionally, we tested the validity of a commonly used instantaneous measure of mating success by comparing selection results with those determined using cumulative mating rate. The two fitness measures yielded similar patterns of selection, supporting the common sampling method comparing mated and unmated fractions.     

Species co‐occurrence patterns and dietary resource competition in primates

Diamond (Assembly of species communities. In: Cody ML, Diamond JM, editors. Ecology and evolution of communities. Cambridge: Belknap. p 342–444 ( 1975 )) argued that interspecific competition between species occupying similar niches results in a nonrandom pattern of species distributions. In particular, some species pairs may never be found in the same community due to competitive exclusion. Rigorous analytical methods have been developed to investigate the possible role that interspecific competition has on the evolution of communities. Many studies that have implemented these methods have shown support for Diamond's assembly rules, yet there are numerous exceptions. We build on this previous research by examining the co‐occurrence patterns of primate species in 109 communities from across the world. We used EcoSim to calculate a checkerboard (C) score for each region. The C score provides a measure of the proportion of species pairs that do not co‐occur in a set of communities. High C scores indicate that species are nonrandomly distributed throughout a region, and interspecific competition may be driving patterns of competitive exclusion. We conducted two sets of analyses. One included all primate species per region, and the second analysis assigned each species to one of four dietary guilds: frugivores, folivores, insectivores, and frugivore‐insectivores. Using all species per region, we found significantly high C scores in 9 of 10 regions examined. For frugivores, we found significantly high‐C scores in more than 50% of regions. In contrast, only 23% of regions exhibited significantly high‐C scores for folivores. Our results suggest that communities are nonrandomly structured and may be the result of greater levels of interspecific competition between frugivores compared to folivores. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2010. © 2010 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Imprints of glacial history and current environment on correlations between endemic plant and invertebrate species richness

Aim We evaluate how closely diversity patterns of endemic species of vascular plants, beetles, butterflies, molluscs and spiders are correlated with each other, and to what extent similar environmental requirements or survival in common glacial refugia and comparable dispersal limitations account for their existing congruence. Location Austria. Methods We calculated pairwise correlations among species numbers of the five taxonomic groups in 1405 cells of a 3′ × 5′ raster (c. 35 km²) using the raw data as well as the residuals of regression models that accounted for: (1) environmental variables, (2) environmental variables and the occurrence of potential refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum, or (3) environmental variables, refugia and spatial filters. Results Pairwise cross‐taxonomic group Spearman’s rank correlations in the raw data were significantly positive in most cases, but only moderate (0.3 < ρ < 0.5) to weak (ρ < 0.3) throughout. Correlations were closest between plants and beetles, plants and butterflies, and plants and snails, respectively, whereas the distribution of endemic spiders was largely uncorrelated with those of the other groups. Environmental variables explained only a moderate proportion of the variance in endemic richness patterns, and the response of individual groups to environmental gradients was only partly consistent. The inclusion of refugium locations and the spatial filters increased the goodness of model fit for all five taxonomic groups. Moreover, removing the effects of environmental conditions reduced congruence in endemic richness patterns to a lesser extent than did filtering the influence of refugium locations and spatial autocorrelation, except for spiders, which are probably the least dispersal‐limited of the five groups. Main conclusions The moderate to weak congruence of endemic richness patterns clearly limits the usefulness of a surrogacy approach for designating areas for the protection of regional endemics. On the other hand, our results suggest that dispersal limitations still shape the distributions of many endemic plant, snail, beetle and butterfly species, even at the regional scale; that is, survival in shared refugia and subsequent restricted spread retain a detectable signal in existing correlations. Concentrating conservation efforts on well‐known Pleistocene refugia hence appears to be a reasonable first step towards a strategy for protecting regional endemics of at least the less mobile invertebrate groups.     

A physiological analogy of the niche for projecting the potential distribution of plants

Aim  To develop a physiologically based model of the plant niche for use in species distribution modelling. Location  Europe. Methods  We link the Thornley transport resistance (TTR) model with functions which describe how the TTR’s model parameters are influenced by abiotic environmental factors. The TTR model considers how carbon and nutrient uptake, and the allocation of these assimilates, influence growth. We use indirect statistical methods to estimate the model parameters from a high resolution data set on tree distribution for 22 European tree species. Results  We infer, from distribution data and abiotic forcing data, the physiological niche dimensions of 22 European tree species. We found that the model fits were reasonable (AUC: 0.79–0.964). The projected distributions were characterized by a false positive rate of 0.19 and a false negative rate 0.12. The fitted models are used to generate projections of the environmental factors that limit the range boundaries of the study species. Main conclusions  We show that physiological models can be used to derive physiological niche dimensions from species distribution data. Future work should focus on including prior information on physiological rates into the parameter estimation process. Application of the TTR model to species distribution modelling suggests new avenues for establishing explicit links between distribution and physiology, and for generating hypotheses about how ecophysiological processes influence the distribution of plants.     

Short hairpin RNAs against eotaxin or interleukin‐5 decrease airway eosinophilia and hyper‐responsiveness in a murine model of asthma

Background

Eosinophilia plays the major role in the pathogenesis of asthma and correlates with the up‐regulation of eotaxin, which, together with interleukin (IL)‐5, is important for differentiation, chemo‐attraction, degranulation, and survival of eosinophils in local tissue. In a previous study, we found that administration of lentivirus‐delivered short hairpin RNA (shRNA) to suppress the expression of IL‐5 inhibited airway inflammation. The present study aimed to investigate the role of eotaxin shRNA and the synergistic effect of eotaxin and IL‐5 shRNAs on airway inflammation in an ovalbumin (OVA)‐induced murine model of asthma.

Methods

Lentivirus‐delivered shRNAs were used to suppress the expression of eotaxin and/or IL‐5 in local tissue in an OVA‐induced murine asthma model.

Results

Intra‐tracheal administration of lentivirus containing eotaxin shRNA expressing cassette (eoSEC3.3) efficiently moderated the characteristics of asthma, including airway hyper‐responsiveness, cellular infiltration of lung tissues, and eotaxin and IL‐5 levels in bronchio‐alveolar lavage fluid. Administration of lentiviruses expressing IL‐5 or eotaxin shRNAs (IL5SEC4 + eoSEC3.3) also moderated the symptoms of asthma in a mouse model.

Conclusions

Local delivery of lentiviruses expressing IL‐5 and eotaxin shRNAs provides a potential tool in moderating airway inflammation and also has the potential for developing clinical therapy based on the application of shRNAs of chemokines and cytokines involved in T helper 2 cell inflammation and eosinophilia. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rates of small-scale species mobility in alvar limestone grassland

Abstract. Small-scale species frequency and cumulative species frequency were studied in four plots in limestone grassland of the Veronica spicata-Avenula pratensis association on Stora Alvaret on the Baltic island of Öland, Sweden. Species mobility was expressed as increase in cumulative species frequency in 20 subplots of 100 cm². Observed cumulative frequencies from 1985–1989 in all four plots, and from 1985–1995 in one plot were compared with values following from two null models, a ‘minimal mobility’ model and a random mobility model. In ca. 50 % of the cases the observed cumulative frequency was not significantly different from the random expectation. However, in many such cases the mean annual frequency was either very high or very low. Three ways of calculating the mobility rate are presented though only one is used: (observed cumulative frequency -lowest annual frequency) / expected cumulative frequency. Values × 100 range from 0 to 100. There were slight differences between the four plots which were interpreted in terms of differences in grazing intensity and soil depth. It is stressed that the idea of the Carousel model has never been meant to suggest that all species would show random mobility, which we now quantify, but that species differ in their mobility rate and that the mean rate is much higher than generally realized.     

Evaluation of past and potential phosphorus uptake at the Orlando Easterly Wetland

The Orlando Easterly Wetland (OEW), located near Christmas, Florida, USA, is among the longer-lived treatment wetlands in the United States. It was established in the late 1980s to reduce nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations from tertiary treated wastewater bound for the St. Johns River. A goal of 0.07 mg/l total phosphorus concentration has been set by the regulating agency (St. Johns River Water Management District). In order to understand and define the operating conditions for which this target could be met, a systematic study of historic phosphorus uptake was performed using a traditional first-order model. Phosphorus uptake performance is shown to correlate well with hydraulic performance for two parallel upstream cells. The first-order model is enhanced with predictive capabilities that acknowledge the correlation between the phosphorus uptake rate constant and the hydraulic loading rate observed in the system. Inherent limitations with the first-order modeling approach are addressed and uncertainty in model performance is used to bound predictions.