A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

The reactivity of neonatal rabbits to the mammary pheromone as a probe for viability

Newborn rabbits depend on a daily nursing interaction with the mother to gain milk and to survive. During this interaction, they localise and seize the nipples displaying a typical behaviour triggered by maternal odour cues. The mammary pheromone constitutes such a signal in domestic rabbits: it elicits sucking-related movements in more than 90% of the pups. However, some newborns remain unresponsive to the presentation of the pheromone, even pups apparently healthy and highly motivated to suck. The main goal of the present study was therefore to explore the link between the unresponsiveness of rabbit pups to the mammary pheromone and their growth and survival in breeding conditions. To that end, 293 newborns from 30 litters were tested for their head searching-oral grasping responses to the mammary pheromone on days 1 and 3, and their milk intake and mortality were followed up from days 1 to 21. It was hypothesised that unresponsive newborns would have subsequent difficulties in finding nipples, sucking and surviving. Early weight and success in milk intake were further considered as mediating factors in growth and viability. The results showed that pups that were unresponsive to the mammary pheromone on day 1 were less successful in gaining milk and had a higher rate of mortality than the responsive pups. However, this impact was modulated by the weight of pups: it appeared only in the lightest newborns. Moreover, this impact vanished on day 3. On the other hand, the pup weight and sucking success on days 1 to 3 strongly influenced viability and growth during the period extending from days 1 to 21. Taken together, the results show that the day-1 responsiveness of rabbit pups to the mammary pheromone can be considered as an indicator of individual viability in pups having a small weight (<48 g on day 1). The predictive validity of the pups’ pheromonal reactivity seems however time-limited as it works only during the first, but crucial, postnatal days.     

Optimization and biological evaluation of celastrol derivatives as Hsp90–Cdc37 interaction disruptors with improved druglike properties

Heat shock protein 90 (Hsp90) as a molecular target for oncology therapeutics has attracted much attention in the last decade. The Hsp90 multichaperone complex has important roles in the growth and/or survival of cancer cells. Cdc37, as a cochaperone, associates kinase clients to Hsp90 and promotes the development of malignant tumors. Disrupting the Hsp90–Cdc37 interaction provides an alternative strategy to inhibit the function of Hsp90 for cancer therapy. Celastrol, as a natural product, can disrupt the Hsp90–Cdc37 interaction and induce degradation of kinase clients. The study conducted here attempted to elucidate the structure–activity relationship of celastrol derivatives as Hsp90–Cdc37 disruptors and to improve the druglike properties. 23 celastrol derivatives were designed, synthesized, and the biological activities and physicochemical properties were determined. The derivative CEL20 showed improved Hsp90–Cdc37 disruption activity, anti-proliferative activities as well as druglike properties. Additionally, CEL20 induced clients degradation, cell cycle arrest and apoptosis in Panc-1 cells. This study can provide reference for the discovery of novel Hsp90–Cdc37 disruptors.     

Emerging role of ferrous iron in bacterial growth and host–pathogen interaction: New tools for chemical (micro)biology and antibacterial therapy

Chemical tools capable of detecting ferrous iron with oxidation-state specificity have only recently become available. Coincident with this development in chemical biology has been increased study and appreciation for the importance of ferrous iron during infection and more generally in host–pathogen interaction. Some of the recent findings are surprising and challenge long-standing assumptions about bacterial iron homeostasis and the innate immune response to infection. Here, we review these recent developments and their implications for antibacterial therapy.     

Co‐occurrence patterns of trees along macro‐climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

Aim During recent and future climate change, shifts in large‐scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress‐gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad‐scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co‐occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates. Location Europe. Methods We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co‐occurrence patterns. Results Correlation analyses supported the stress‐gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co‐occurrence patterns may play a major role. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of species co‐occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate‐induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences.     

Probing binding mechanism of interleukin-6 and olokizumab: in silico design of potential lead antibodies for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases

Computer-aided antibody engineering has been successful in the design of new biologics for disease diagnosis and therapeutic interventions. Interleukin-6 (IL-6), a well-recognized drug target for various autoimmune and inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis, multiple sclerosis, and psoriasis, was investigated in silico to design potential lead antibodies. Here, crystal structure of IL-6 along with monoclonal antibody olokizumab was explored to predict antigen–antibody (Ag???Ab)-interacting residues using DiscoTope, Paratome, and PyMOL. Tyr56, Tyr103 in heavy chain and Gly30, Ile31 in light chain of olokizumab were mutated with residues Ser, Thr, Tyr, Trp, and Phe. A set of 899 mutant macromolecules were designed, and binding affinity of these macromolecules to IL-6 was evaluated through Ag???Ab docking (ZDOCK, ClusPro, and Rosetta server), binding free-energy calculations using Molecular Mechanics/Poisson Boltzman Surface Area (MM/PBSA) method, and interaction energy estimation. In comparison to olokizumab, eight newly designed theoretical antibodies demonstrated better result in all assessments. Therefore, these newly designed macromolecules were proposed as potential lead antibodies to serve as a therapeutics option for IL-6-mediated diseases.     

The presence of 12β-deoxydecarbamoylsaxitoxin in the Japanese toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium determined by simultaneous analysis for paralytic shellfish toxins using HILIC-LC–MS/MS

A differential screening study using high-resolution (HR)-hydrophilic interaction chromatography (HILIC)-electrospray ionization (ESI)–quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry (Q-TOF MS) was conducted to identify saxitoxin (STX) analogues in the marine dinoflagellate toxic sub-clone Alexandrium tamarense Axat-2 and the non-toxic sub-clone UAT-014-009 derived from the same Japanese isolate. One unknown compound was identified only in the toxic sub-clone and was found to have the molecular formula C₉H₁₆N₆O₂. This structure differed from that of decarbamoyl STX (dcSTX; C₉H₁₆N₆O₃) by the loss of a single oxygen. A 12-deoxy-dcSTX standard (a mixture of 12α- and β-deoxy-dcSTX) was chemically prepared from dcSTX by reduction with sodium borohydride. The unknown compound in the toxic strain of A. tamarense was identified as 12β-deoxy-dcSTX by comparison of its HR-HILIC-LC–MS retention time and HR–MS/MS spectrum with those of the chemically prepared standard, and the identification was confirmed by high-sensitivity HPLC analysis with post-column fluorescent derivatization. Moreover, two Japanese isolates of A. catenella showing toxin profiles different from that of A. tamarense were also found to contain 12β-deoxy-dcSTX. Previously, 12β-deoxy-dcSTX was isolated from the freshwater cyanobacterium Lyngbya wollei, which produces a unique set of STX analogues. This study is the first evidence of the presence of 12β-deoxy-dcSTX in marine dinoflagellates.     

Discovery of new low-molecular-weight p53–Mdmx disruptors and their anti-cancer activities

Although several p53–Mdm2-binding disruptors have been identified to date, few studies have been published on p53–Mdmx-interaction inhibitors. In the present study, we demonstrated that o-aminothiophenol derivatives with molecular weights of 200–300 selectively inhibited the p53–Mdmx interaction. S-2-Isobutyramidophenyl 2-methylpropanethioate (K-178) (1c) activated p53, up-regulated the expression of its downstream genes such as p21 and Mdm2, and preferentially inhibited the growth of cancer cells with wild-type p53 over those with mutant p53. Furthermore, we found that the S-isobutyryl-deprotected forms 1b and 3b of 1c and S-2-benzamidophenyl 2-methylpropanethioate (K-181) (3c) preferentially inhibited the p53–Mdmx interaction over the p53–Mdm2 interaction, respectively, by using a Flag-p53 and glutathione S-transferase (GST)-fused protein complex (Mdm2, Mdmx, DAPK1, or PPID). In addition, the interaction of p53 with Mdmx was lost by replacing a sulfur atom with an oxygen atom in 1b and 1c. These results suggest that sulfides such as 1b, 3b, 4b, and 5b interfere with the binding of p53–Mdmx, resulting in the dissociation of the two proteins. Furthermore, the results of oral administration experiments using xenografts in nude mice indicated that 1c reduced the volume of tumor masses to 49.0% and 36.6% that of the control at 100 mg/kg and 150 mg/kg, respectively, in 40 days.