Simulating transmission and control of Taenia solium infections using a Reed-Frost stochastic model

The transmission dynamics of the human-pig zoonotic cestode Taenia solium are explored with both deterministic and stochastic versions of a modified Reed-Frost model. This model, originally developed for microparasitic infections (i.e. bacteria, viruses and protozoa), assumes that random contacts occur between hosts and that hosts can be either susceptible, infected or 'recovered and presumed immune'. Transmission between humans and pigs is modelled as susceptible roaming pigs scavenging on human faeces infected with T. solium eggs. Transmission from pigs to humans is modelled as susceptible humans eating under-cooked pork meat harbouring T. solium metacestodes. Deterministic models of each scenario were first run, followed by stochastic versions of the models to assess the likelihood of infection elimination in the small population modelled. The effects of three groups of interventions were investigated using the model: (i) interventions affecting the transmission parameters such as use of latrines, meat inspection, and cooking habits; (ii) routine interventions including rapid detection and treatment of human carriers or pig vaccination; and (iii) treatment interventions of either humans or pigs. It is concluded that mass-treatment can result in a short term dramatic reduction in prevalence, whereas interventions targeting interruption of the life cycle lead to long-term reduction in prevalence.     

Importance of cooperation and affiliation in the evolution of primate sociality

The idea that competition and aggression are central to an understanding of the origins of group‐living and sociality among human and nonhuman primates is the dominant theory in primatology today. Using this paradigm, researchers have focused their attention on competitive and aggressive behaviors, and have tended to overlook the importance of cooperative and affiliative behaviors. However, cooperative and affiliative behaviors are considerably more common than agonistic behaviors in all primate species. The current paradigm often fails to explain the context, function, and social tactics underlying affiliative and agonistic behavior. Here, we present data on a basic question of primate sociality: how much time do diurnal, group‐living primates spend in social behavior, and how much of this time is affiliative and agonistic? These data are derived from a survey of 81 studies, including 28 genera and 60 species. We find that group‐living prosimians, New World monkeys, Old World monkeys, and apes usually devote less than 10% of their activity budget to active social interactions. Further, rates of agonistic behaviors are extremely low, normally less than 1% of the activity budget. If the cost to the actors of affiliative behavior is low even if the rewards are low or extremely variable, we should expect affiliation and cooperation to be frequent. This is especially true under conditions in which individuals benefit from the collective environment of living in stable social groups. Am J Phys Anthropol 128:84–97, 2005. © 2005 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

黄土丘陵区植被与地形特征对土壤和土壤微生物生物量生态化学计量特征的影响

研究黄土丘陵区植被与地形特征对土壤和土壤微生物生物量生态化学计量特征影响有助于深入理解黄土丘陵区不同植被带下土壤和土壤微生物相互作用及养分循环规律.选择黄土丘陵区延河流域3个植被区(森林区、森林草原区、草原区)和5种地形部位(阴/阳沟坡、阴/阳梁峁坡、峁顶)的土壤作为研究对象,利用生态化学计量学理论研究植被和地形对土壤和土壤微生物生物量生态化学计量特征的影响.结果表明: 土壤及土壤微生物生物量碳、氮、磷含量在不同地形之间的差别主要表现在沟坡位置和阴坡高于其他坡位和阳坡.植被类型的变化对两个土层(0～10、10～20 cm)土壤和土壤微生物生物量碳、氮、磷的影响均达到显著水平,坡向对表层(0～10 cm)土壤和土壤微生物生物量碳、氮、磷的影响强于坡位,而在10～20 cm土层,坡位对土壤和土壤微生物生物量碳、氮、磷影响更显著.植被类型显著影响土壤C∶N、C∶P、N∶P和土壤微生物生物量C∶N、C∶P,坡向和坡位仅影响土壤C∶P和N∶P,植被类型的变化是影响土壤C∶N的主要因素.同时,植被类型对土壤养分和微生物生物量碳、氮、磷含量及其生态化学计量特征的影响大于地形因子.标准化主轴分析结果表明,黄土丘陵区不同植被带土壤微生物具有内稳性,特别在草原带,土壤微生物生物量生态化学计量学特征具有更加严格的约束比例.在黄土丘陵区,土壤微生物生物量N∶P或许可以作为判断养分限制的另一个有力工具,若将土壤微生物生物量N∶P与植物叶片N∶P配合使用可能有助于我们更加精确地判断黄土丘陵区的土壤养分限制情况.     

Projecting future grassland productivity to assess the sustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in the Greater Platte River Basin

This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha^?1 year^?1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha^?1 year^?1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha^?1 year^?1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.     

Natural selection. V. How to read the fundamental equations of evolutionary change in terms of information theory

The equations of evolutionary change by natural selection are commonly expressed in statistical terms. Fisher's fundamental theorem emphasizes the variance in fitness. Quantitative genetics expresses selection with covariances and regressions. Population genetic equations depend on genetic variances. How can we read those statistical expressions with respect to the meaning of natural selection? One possibility is to relate the statistical expressions to the amount of information that populations accumulate by selection. However, the connection between selection and information theory has never been compelling. Here, I show the correct relations between statistical expressions for selection and information theory expressions for selection. Those relations link selection to the fundamental concepts of entropy and information in the theories of physics, statistics and communication. We can now read the equations of selection in terms of their natural meaning. Selection causes populations to accumulate information about the environment.     

Sustainability indices for exploited populations

Evaluating the sustainability of hunting is key to the conservation of species exploited for bushmeat. Researchers are often hampered by a lack of basic biological data, the usual response to which is to develop sustainability indices based on highly simplified population models. However, the standard indices in the bushmeat literature do not perform well under realistic conditions of uncertainty, bias in parameter estimation, and habitat loss. Another possible approach to estimating the sustainability of hunting under uncertainty is to use Bayesian statistics, but this is mathematically demanding. Red listing of threatened species has to be carried out in extremely data-poor situations: uncertainty has been incorporated into this process in a relatively simple and intuitive way using fuzzy numbers. The current methods for estimating sustainability of bushmeat hunting also do not incorporate spatial heterogeneity. No-take areas are one management tool that can address uncertainty in a spatially explicit way.     

Carbon stocks in above‐ground biomass of monoculture plantations,mixed species plantations and environmental restoration plantings in north‐east Australia

Summary The emergence of carbon markets has provided a potential source of funding for reforestation projects. However, there is concern amongst ecologists that these markets will promote the establishment of monoculture plantations rather than more diverse restoration plantings, on the assumption that fast‐growing monocultures are likely to store more carbon than restoration plantings. We examined the validity of this assumption for three predominantly rainforest plantation types established in the moist tropical uplands of north‐east Australia: monoculture plantations of native rainforest conifers (n = 5, mean age 13 years); mixed species plantations of rainforest cabinet timber species, rainforest conifers and eucalypts (n = 5, mean age 13 years); and, environmental restoration plantings comprised mostly of a diverse range of rainforest trees (n = 10, mean age 14 years). We found that restoration plantings stored significantly more carbon in above‐ground biomass than monoculture plantations of native conifers (on average, 106 t vs 62 t carbon per ha); and tended to store more carbon than mixed species timber plantations which were intermediate in value (86 t carbon per ha). Carbon stocks were higher in restoration plantings than in monoculture and mixed species plantations for three reasons. First, and most importantly, restoration plantings were more densely stocked than monoculture and mixed species plantations. Second, there were more large diameter trees in restoration plantings than monoculture plantations. Third, the trees used in restoration plantings had a higher average wood density than the conifers used in monoculture plantations. While, on average, wood density was higher in mixed species plantations than restoration plantings, the much higher stocking rate of restoration plantings meant they stored more carbon than mixed species plantations. We conclude that restoration plantings in the moist tropics of north‐east Australia can accumulate relatively high amounts of carbon within two decades of establishment. Comparison with reference rainforest sites suggests that restoration plantings could maintain their high stocking rates (and therefore high biomass) as they develop in future decades. However, because restoration plantings are currently much more expensive to establish than monoculture plantations, restoration plantings are unlikely to be favoured by carbon markets. Novel reforestation techniques and designs are required if restoration plantings are to both provide habitat for rainforest biota and store carbon in biomass at a cost comparable to monoculture plantations.