Lifesaving explains mortality decline with time

Mortality rates of human populations in developed countries are declining with time. We show that this effect can be explained via a 'lifesaving' methodology. Our approach is based on considering a non-homogeneous Poisson process of potentially harmful events. Each of these events can be 'cured' with a given probability or can result in a termination of the Poisson process (death) with a complementary probability. A lifesaving ratio, defining the corresponding relative increase in life expectancy for homogeneous and heterogeneous populations is analyzed. Some generalizations are discussed. Several simple examples are considered.     

Measurement of concurrent selection episodes

Current methods for measuring selection with longitudinal data have been developed with the assumption that episodes of selection are sequential. However, a number of empirical examinations have demonstrated that natural and sexual selection may act concurrently and in opposing directions. Other recent work has highlighted the difficulty of assigning fitness values for survival when reproduction and mortality within a population temporally overlap. I treat these as facets of a single problem; how to analyze selection where mortality and reproduction are concurrent. To address this problem, I formalize a method to estimate total fitness of individuals over a period of time utilizing longitudinal data. I then show how the fitness may be partitioned to provide two separate estimates of fitness for reproductive opportunity and reproductive success. In addition, another total fitness estimate for the period can be obtained from the two partitioned estimates. This procedure will allow calculation of total fitness where there are some missing datapoints for reproductive success of an individual. A simulation indicates that bias is generally low for the various fitness estimates. These methods should expand our ability to understand the interaction of different selection episodes.     

Linear enamel hypoplasias as indicators of systemic physiological stress: evidence from two known age-at-death and sex populations from postmedieval London

Enamel hypoplasias are useful indicators of systemic growth disturbances during childhood, and are routinely used to investigate patterns of morbidity and mortality in past populations. This study examined the pattern of linear enamel hypoplasias in two different burial populations from 18th and 19th Century church crypts in London. Linear enamel hypoplasias on the permanent dentitions of individuals from the crypt of Christ Church, Spitalfields, were compared to enamel defects on the teeth of individuals from St. Bride's. The method used involves the identification of enamel defects at a microscopic level, and systemic perturbations are detected by matching hypoplasias among different tooth classes within each individual. The pattern of linear enamel hypoplasias was contrasted between individuals from the burial sites of Spitalfields and St. Bride's, between males and females, and between those aged less than 20 years of age and those aged over 20 years at death. Six different parameters were examined: frequency of linear enamel hypoplasias, interval between defects, duration of hypoplasias, age at first occurrence of hypoplasia, age at last occurrence of hypoplasia, and the percentage of enamel formation time taken up by growth disturbances. All individuals in the study displayed linear enamel hypoplasias, with up to 33% of total visible enamel formation time affected by growth disruptions. Multiple regression analysis indicated a number of significant differences in the pattern of enamel hypoplasias. Individuals from Spitalfields had shorter intervals between defects and greater percentages of enamel formation time affected by growth disturbances than did individuals from St. Bride's. Females had greater numbers of linear enamel hypoplasias, shorter intervals between defects, and greater percentages of enamel formation time affected by growth disturbances than males. There were also differences in the pattern of enamel hypoplasias and age at death in this study. Individuals who died younger in life had an earlier age at first occurrence of enamel hypoplasia than those who survived to an older age. The pattern of enamel hypoplasias detected in this study was influenced by tooth crown geometry and tooth wear such that most defects were found in the midcrown and cervical regions of the teeth, and greater numbers of defects were identified on the anterior teeth. Differences in sensitivity of the parameters used for the detection of enamel hypoplasias were found in this study. The percentage of visible enamel formation time affected by growth disturbances was the parameter that identified the greatest number of significant differences among the subgroups examined.     

Hatching sex ratio and sex specific chick mortality in common terns Sterna hirundo

Bias in sex ratios at hatching and sex specific post hatching mortality in size dimorphic species has been frequently detected, and is usually skewed towards the production and survival of the smaller sex. Since common terns Sterna hirundo show a limited sexual size dimorphism, with males being only about 1–6% larger than females in a few measurements, we would expect to find small or no differences in production and survival of sons and daughters. To test this prediction, we carried out a 2-year observational study on sex ratio variation in common terns at hatching and on sex specific post hatching mortality. Sons and daughters hatched from eggs of similar volume. Post hatching mortality was heavily influenced by hatching sequence. In addition, we detected a sex specific mortality bias towards sons. Overall, hatching sex ratio and sex specific mortality resulted in fledging sex ratios 8% biased towards females. Thus, other reasons than body size may be influencing the costs of rearing sons. Son mortality was not homogeneous between brood sizes, but greater for two-chick broods. Since adults rearing two-chick broods were younger, lighter and bred consistently later than those rearing three-chick broods, it is suggested that lower capacity of two-chick brood parents adversely affected offspring survival of sons. Though not significantly, two-chick broods tended to be female biased at hatching, perhaps to counteract the greater male-biased nestling mortality. Thus, population bias in secondary sex ratio is not limited to strongly size dimorphic species, but species with a slight sexual size dimorphism can also show sex ratio bias through a combination of differential production and mortality of sons and daughters.     

Illness, injury, and disability among Shiwiar forager-horticulturalists: implications of health-risk buffering for the evolution of human life history

Human life history is distinguished by long lifespan, delayed reproduction, intergenerational asymmetric benefit transfers from adults to juveniles and between adults, and a large brain able to engage in unprecedented levels of learning, reasoning, and insight. The evolution of these traits depends on relatively low human mortality. Understanding why humans have low mortality is therefore critical for understanding the evolution of key human traits. One explanation is that the evolution of food provisioning during periods of health crisis reduced mortality. This hypothesis turns on health risk having posed a significant adaptive problem that could be effectively buffered by healthcare provisioning. Unfortunately, the frequency, duration, and fitness effects of temporary disability are difficult to estimate based on osteological evidence alone, and systematic ethno-biological research on these issues among extant small-scale societies with little access to Western medical care is lacking. Here I present data on 678 injuries and illnesses suffered by 40 Shiwiar forager-horticulturalists, based on physical evidence and informant reports. A subsample of 17 individuals provided data on incidence and duration of disability for 215 pathological incidents. Results indicate that injury and illness occur frequently across the lifespan. Most living individuals have suffered temporarily disabling health crises likely to have been lethal without provisioning. The fitness effects of surviving these episodes are high, suggesting that the Shiwiar population structure and lifeway are dependent on infrequent extended provisioning to temporarily disabled individuals, and that provisioning of aid during healthcare crises effectively lowers mortality in this small-scale society.     

Age-structured population growth rates in constant and variable environments: a near equilibrium approach

General measures summarizing the shapes of mortality and fecundity schedules are proposed. These measures are derived from moments of probability distributions related to mortality and fecundity schedules. Like moments, these measures form infinite sequences, but the first terms of these sequences are of particular value in approximating the long-term growth rate of an age- structured population that is growing slowly. Higher order terms are needed for approximating faster growing populations. These approximations offer a general nonparametric approach to the study of life-history evolution in both constant and variable environments. These techniques provide simple quantitative representations of the classical findings that, with fixed expected lifetime and net reproductive rate, type I mortality and early peak reproduction increase the absolute magnitude of the population growth rate, while type III mortality and delayed peak reproduction reduce this absolute magnitude.     

Sex change towards female in dying Acer rufinerve trees

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Sex changes within the genus Acer (Aceraceae) may occur because of associations of sex expression and plant health. In this study, a natural population of Acer rufinerve was monitored to clarify the sex change patterns, the relationship between sex expression and plant health, and the causal environmental conditions that precede sex changes. METHODS: Sex expression, growth rate and mortality of A. rufinerve trees in a natural population were monitored from 1992 to 1997. KEY RESULTS: Three types of sex expression were observed among A. rufinerve: male, female and bisexual. Among the three types of sex expression, sex changes occurred in all directions. In the growing season of 1994, precipitation was reduced. Stem growth rate decreased and mortality was high in 1994. In the spring of 1995, a drastic sex change from male to female or to bisexual occurred. As a result, the sex ratio became female-biased in 1995, although it had been male-biased from 1992 to 1994. In 1996 and 1997, the proportion of males in the population increased, partly as a result of female mortality and partly as a result of female-to-male sex changes. Sex expression of A. rufinerve was associated with their growth rate and mortality. The growth rate decreased for trees whose sex changed from male to female or to bisexual, and increased for trees whose sex changed from female to male or to bisexual. Dead trees reproduced as females before they died, except for those that died as males in 1994. CONCLUSIONS: One explanation for the sex change towards increasing femaleness for this A. rufinerve population in 1995 was the deterioration of plant health in the previous growing season, because of reduced precipitation. Sex changes of unhealthy and dying A. rufinerve towards femaleness may facilitate re-occupancy by offspring in gaps created by the death of A. rufinerve trees.     

Effects of prenatal perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) exposure on lung maturation in the perinatal rat

BACKGROUND: Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), found widely in wildlife and humans, is environmentally and metabolically stable. Environmental PFOS may be from its use as a surfactant, hydrolysis of perfluorooctanesulfonyl fluoride, and degradation of N-alkyl-perfluorooctanesulfonamide compounds formerly used in numerous applications. Prenatal exposure to PFOS in rodents causes neonatal mortality; treatment on gestation days (GD) 19-20 is sufficient to induce neonatal death in rats. Affected pups are born alive but present with labored breathing. Their lungs are pale and often do not expand fully on perfusion. METHODS: Pregnant Sprague-Dawley rats received 0, 25, or 50 mg/kg/day PFOS/K+ orally on GD 19-20. Lungs from GD 21 fetuses and neonates were prepared for histology and morphometry. Rescue experiments included co-administration of dexamethasone or retinyl palmitate with PFOS. Pulmonary surfactant was investigated with mass spectrometry in GD 21 amniotic fluid and neonatal lungs. Microarray analysis was carried out on PND 0 lungs. RESULTS: Histologically, alveolar walls were thicker in lungs of PFOS-exposed newborns compared to controls. The ratio of solid tissue:small airway was increased, suggesting immaturity. Rescue studies were ineffective. Phospholipid concentrations and molecular speciation were unaffected by PFOS. No changes in markers of alveolar differentiation were detected by microarray analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Morphometric changes in lungs of PFOS exposed neonates were suggestive of immaturity, but the failure of rescue agents and normal pulmonary surfactant profile indicate that the labored respiration and mortality observed in PFOS-treated neonates was not due to lung immaturity.     

Effect of increased convective clearance by on-line hemodiafiltration on all cause and cardiovascular mortality in chronic hemodialysis patients – the Dutch CONvective TRAnsport STudy (CONTRAST): rationale and design of a randomised controlled trial [ISRCTN38365125]

Background

The high incidence of cardiovascular disease in patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD) is related to the accumulation of uremic toxins in the middle and large-middle molecular weight range. As online hemodiafiltration (HDF) removes these molecules more effectively than standard hemodialysis (HD), it has been suggested that online HDF improves survival and cardiovascular outcome. Thus far, no conclusive data of HDF on target organ damage and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality are available. Therefore, the CONvective TRAnsport STudy (CONTRAST) has been initiated.

Methods

CONTRAST is a Dutch multi-center randomised controlled trial. In this trial, approximately 800 chronic hemodialysis patients will be randomised between online HDF and low-flux HD, and followed for three years. The primary endpoint is all cause mortality. The main secondary outcome variables are fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events.

Conclusion

The study is designed to provide conclusive evidence whether online HDF leads to a lower mortality and less cardiovascular events as compared to standard HD.     

Historical and event‐based bioclimatic suitability predicts regional forest vulnerability to compound effects of severe drought and bark beetle infestation

Vulnerability to climate change, and particularly to climate extreme events, is expected to vary across species ranges. Thus, we need tools to standardize the variability in regional climatic legacy and extreme climate across populations and species. Extreme climate events (e.g., droughts) can erode populations close to the limits of species' climatic tolerance. Populations in climatic‐core locations may also become vulnerable because they have developed a greater demand for resources (i.e., water) that cannot be enough satisfied during the periods of scarcity. These mechanisms can become exacerbated in tree populations when combined with antagonistic biotic interactions, such as insect infestation. We used climatic suitability indices derived from Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to standardize the climatic conditions experienced across Pinus edulis populations in southwestern North America, during a historical period (1972–2000) and during an extreme event (2001–2007), when the compound effect of hot drought and bark beetle infestation caused widespread die‐off and mortality. Pinus edulis climatic suitability diminished dramatically during the die‐off period, with remarkable variation between years. P. edulis die‐off occurred mainly not just in sites that experienced lower climatic suitability during the drought but also where climatic suitability was higher during the historical period. The combined effect of historically high climatic suitability and a marked decrease in the climatic suitability during the drought best explained the range‐wide mortality. Lagged effects of climatic suitability loss in previous years and co‐occurrence of Juniperus monosperma also explained P. edulis die‐off in particular years. Overall, the study shows that past climatic legacy, likely determining acclimation, together with competitive interactions plays a major role in responses to extreme drought. It also provides a new approach to standardize the magnitude of climatic variability across populations using SDMs, improving our capacity to predict population's or species' vulnerability to climatic change.