Stochastic epidemic models: A survey

This paper is a survey paper on stochastic epidemic models. A simple stochastic epidemic model is defined and exact and asymptotic (relying on a large community) properties are presented. The purpose of modelling is illustrated by studying effects of vaccination and also in terms of inference procedures for important parameters, such as the basic reproduction number and the critical vaccination coverage. Several generalizations towards realism, e.g. multitype and household epidemic models, are also presented, as is a model for endemic diseases.     

Introduced and native herbivores have different effects on plant composition in low productivity ecosystems

Questions

Understanding how livestock grazing alters plant composition in low productivity environments is critical to managing livestock sustainably alongside native and introduced wild herbivore populations. We asked four questions: (1) does recent livestock and rabbit grazing reduce some plant attributes more strongly than others; (2) does grazing by introduced herbivores (i.e. livestock and rabbits) affect plants more strongly than native herbivores (i.e. kangaroos); (3) do the effects of recent livestock grazing differ from the legacy effects of livestock grazing; and (4) does the probability of occurrence of exotic plants increase with increasing net primary productivity (NPP)?

Location

South‐eastern Australia.

Methods

We measured the recent grazing activity of co‐occurring livestock (cattle, sheep, goats), rabbits and kangaroos by counting faecal pellets; historic grazing activity by measuring livestock tracks; and derived NPP from satellite imagery. We used a hierarchical GLMM to simultaneously model the presence or absence (i.e. probability of occurrence) of all plant species as a function of their attributes (growth form, lifespan and origin) to assess their average response to recent grazing, historic grazing and productivity in a broad‐scale regional study.

Results

Recent and historic livestock grazing, rabbit grazing and increasing NPP reduced the average probability of occurrence of plant species, although responses varied among plant attributes. Both recent and historic livestock grazing strongly reduced the average probability of occurrence of native species, and forbs and geophytes, but differed in their relative effects on other growth forms. Recent livestock grazing, rabbit grazing and NPP had similar effects, strongly reducing native species and forbs, geophytes, shrubs and sub‐shrubs. The overall effects of recent kangaroo grazing were relatively weak, with no clear trends for any given plant attribute.

Conclusion

Our results highlight the complex nature of grazing by introduced herbivores compared with native herbivores on different plant attributes. Land managers need to be aware that domestic European livestock, rabbits and other free‐ranging introduced livestock such as goats have detrimental impacts on native plant communities. Our results also show that kangaroo grazing has a relatively benign effect on plant occurrence.     

毛乌素沙地草地种植管理咨询系统的开发

 本研究初步开发了一个用于毛乌素沙地草地种植管理咨询的专家系统ASSG。这个系统将当地生态系统管理专家们的经验知识和对土壤水分动态的理论研究成果结合起来以产生对于土地利用和种植的作物种类及品种的最优管理策略和最适的植被覆盖率。本系统利用3个层次的推理过程和结构化的知识库,通过咨询过程—步步地引导用户得到最优种植管理策略。在每—层次的推理中,本系统提供给用户多重选择,根据用户的意愿进行下一步的推理。这一推理的交互作用机制为用户获得适宜的咨询结果提供了最大的便利性。本系统的主体部分山Turbo Prolog语言完成,该语言是一种用于开发专家系统的描述性语言。基于土壤水分平衡原理的最优植被覆盖率模型由C语言实现,并应用多语言编程技术将之嵌入程序主体中。系统的样本运行结果表明本系统运行便利,并能产生合理的种植管理策略。     

16S/18S/ITS扩增子高通量测序引物的生物信息学评估和改进

【背景】在过去的十几年里,基于核糖体RNA基因的扩增子测序技术被广泛用于各种生态系统中微生物群落的多样性检测。扩增子测序的使用极大地促进了土壤、水体、空气等环境中微生物生态的相关研究。【目的】随着高通量测序技术的不断发展和参考数据库的不断更新,针对不同的环境样本的引物选择和改进仍然需要更深入的校验。【方法】本文收集了目前在微生物群落研究中被广泛采用的标记基因扩增通用引物,包括16S rRNA基因扩增常用的8对通用引物和2对古菌引物、9对真菌转录间隔区(internal transcribed spacer,ITS)基因扩增引物,以及18S rRNA基因扩增的4对真核微生物通用引物和1对真菌特异性引物。这些引物中包括了地球微生物组计划(Earth Microbiome Project,EMP)推荐的2对16S rRNA基因扩增引物、1对ITS1基因扩增引物和1对18S rRNA基因扩增引物。采用最近更新的标准数据库对这些引物进行了覆盖度和特异性评价。【结果】EMP推荐的引物依然具有较高的覆盖度,而其他引物在覆盖度及对特定环境或类群的特异性上也各有特点。此外,最近有研究对这些通用引物进行了一些改进,而我们也发现,一个碱基的变化都可能会导致评价结果或扩增产物发生明显变化,简并碱基的引入既可以覆盖更多的物种,但同时也会在一定程度上降低关注物种的特异性。【结论】研究结果为微生态研究中标记基因的引物选择提供了一个广泛的指导,但在关注具体科学问题时,引物的选择仍需数据指导与实验尝试。     

Compensatory growth of Phanerochaete velutina mycelial systems grazed by Folsomia candida (Collembola)

Phanerochaete velutina is a major agent of wood decomposition in temperate forests. It grows out of woody resources in search of other resources and is then vulnerable to grazing by invertebrates. The aim of this study was to determine how continuous grazing and grazing for only 2 days by different densities of collembola, Folsomia candida, affect mycelial development (radial extension, hyphal coverage and fractal dimension) of P. velutina growing across non-sterile soil. High density (80 collembola) continuous grazing resulted in different mycelial foraging patterns compared to controls and lower density (20 and 40 collembola) continuous grazing: radial extension rate was reduced from 8.4 mm day(-1) (control) to 6.9 mm day(-1) (80 collembola), hyphal coverage was reduced to 81% of controls and mass fractal dimension increased from 1.68 (control) to 1.72 (80 collembola). There was evidence of over-compensatory growth: when high density grazing ceased the new growth was considerably greater (38%) than in controls. Grazing also resulted in growth stimulation: at low density continuous grazing (20 collembola) hyphal coverage was 15.6% greater than in controls. The ecological implications of compensatory and stimulatory growth in fungal-invertebrate interactions are considered.     

青海湖流域具鳞水柏枝植物水分利用氢同位素示踪研究

具鳞水柏枝(Myricaria squamosa)是我国高寒地区广泛分布的优势河谷灌木, 具有维持河谷湿地系统稳定的功能。然而, 目前国内外有关具鳞水柏枝水分利用来源的定量研究很少。该文运用氢稳定同位素示踪方法, 分析了青海湖流域具鳞水柏枝茎(木质部)水和潜在水源(地下水、河水和土壤水)的氢稳定同位素比率(δD)的季节变化, 发现具鳞水柏枝在不同水文环境下的植物水分利用来源有明显差异。研究结果表明, 生长在河岸边的具鳞水柏枝在6、7月主要利用地下水与河水, 分别占其所利用水分的89%、86%和55%、65%, 8月主要利用0-20 cm土层的土壤水, 9月水源不详。生长在离河岸约100 m处的具鳞水柏枝在6月主要利用地下水与河水(91%、70%), 在7-9月以0-60 cm土层的土壤水为主要水源。这表明生长在河岸边的具鳞水柏枝对地下水和河水的依赖程度较高, 而距离河岸约100 m时对土壤水的利用量较多, 反映出生长在不同生境中的具鳞水柏枝对特定水分条件的特殊适应结果。     

Generalized and species-specific prediction models for aboveground biomass in semi-steppe rangelands

Aims The accurate estimation of aboveground biomass in vegetation is critical for global carbon accounting. Regression models provide an easy estimation of aboveground biomass at large spatial and temporal scales. Yet, only few prediction models are available for aboveground biomass in rangelands, as compared with forests. In addition to the development of prediction models, we tested whether such prediction models vary with plant growth forms and life spans, and with the inclusion of site and/or quadrat-specific factors.     

基于地理探测器的宁夏贺兰山植被覆盖度时空分异及驱动因子

监测区域植被覆盖变化并分析其驱动因子,有利于实现生态环境的可持续发展。本研究以1989—2021年Landsat 5/8遥感影像为数据源,利用像元二分模型获取宁夏贺兰山植被覆盖度,基于地理探测器量化了环境和人为等10个因子对其时空分布的影响。结果表明: 1989—2021年间,宁夏贺兰山平均植被覆盖度为35.8%,时间尺度上总体呈增加趋势,平均增幅为0.043·(10 a)^-1,空间尺度上呈现从西南向东北递减的分布特征;研究区58.1%的区域植被覆盖度未来将持续性改善,但仍有30.7%的植被存在退化的潜在风险。降水是影响植被分布的主要环境因子,与单因子相比,环境因子和人为因子的交互作用对植被覆盖度的解释力更强,降水与其他因子的交互作用处于主导作用。     

宁夏10种观赏灌木叶片解剖结构及其抗旱性综合评价

采用显微制片技术,对宁夏10种主要灌木树种叶片的解剖结构进行了观察,分别测定了叶片厚度、上下角质层厚度、栅栏组织、海绵组织、气孔密度等15个与抗旱性相关的指标,并对15个指标进行主成分分析,用隶属函数法对10种灌木的抗旱性进行了综合评价。结果表明:10种灌木的叶片具有典型的旱生结构,大多数具有表皮毛,且具有明显的角质层结构;上、下表皮细胞及叶肉细胞排列紧密。15个指标在各灌木树种间的差异均极显著,其中叶片厚度、上角质层、栅栏组织厚度、气孔密度和主脉维管束直径为叶片旱性结构的主要因子。通过5个主要因子的综合评价,10种灌木的抗旱性大小顺序依次为:沙冬青>花棒>蒙古莸>金叶莸>互叶醉鱼草>蒙古扁桃>鞑靼忍冬>葱皮忍冬>金花忍冬>台尔曼忍冬。