荒漠草原人工灌丛化对蒸散发及其组分的影响——以盐池县为例

我国西北防沙治沙工程中大量的种植中间锦鸡儿(Caragana intermedia)会导致荒漠草原发生灌丛化现象,研究人工灌丛化对荒漠草原蒸散发的影响,不仅能够揭示半干旱区人为活动对生态系统水循环的影响机理,还可以指导区域生态治理实践。以宁夏盐池县荒漠草原为例,基于植被的生理生态参数和荒漠草原水热条件,采用生物地球化学模型(Biome Bio-Geochemical Cycles,Biome-BGC)和地球呼吸系统模拟模型(Breathing Earth System Simulator,BESS)结合的方法,模拟荒漠草原生态系统人工灌丛引入前后蒸散发及其组分的变化,定量研究荒漠草原人工灌丛化对区域生态水文循环中蒸散发的影响。结果表明,人工灌丛的引入使植被结构及特征发生了变化,叶面积指数(Leaf Area Index,LAI)年最大值由0.20增加为0.67,改变了植被年内与年际变化特征。荒漠草原人工灌丛化后,生态系统年均蒸散发由251.74 mm增加到了281.42 mm;人工灌丛化对生长季的蒸散发增强明显,8月蒸散发峰值时,日均蒸散发由1.27 mm/d增加到1.56 mm/d。灌丛化过程使生态系统蒸腾量平均增加了1.35倍,蒸发量增加了1.06倍,改变了生态系统蒸散发的组分结构,导致蒸发比例降低、蒸腾比例增高。由此可知,荒漠草原在防沙治沙和生态治理中大量种植灌木的现象,加大了区域生态系统的蒸散发,并改变了水分耗散结构,从而对生态系统地气水汽交换有较大影响,研究结论对荒漠草原生态治理及未来的植被重建有一定的借鉴意义。     

内蒙古不同类型草原光合植被覆盖度对降水变化的响应

植被是影响土壤侵蚀过程的重要因素。论文基于MODIS遥感数据和同期降水数据,用相关和回归分析方法从不同时间尺度揭示了内蒙古草甸草原、典型草原和荒漠草原2002—2016年光合植被覆盖度(Fractional Photosynthetic Vegetation,f_(PV))的变化规律及其对降水变化的响应。结果表明:(1)2002—2016年间多年平均f_(PV)草甸草原为46.5%,典型草原和荒漠草原分别为36.3%和22.4%;草甸草原f_(PV)随时间变化呈不显著增长趋势(线性变化斜率为0.29%/a),典型草原和荒漠草原f_(PV)呈不显著下降趋势(线性变化斜率分别为-0.04%/a和-0.21%/a);相应时期年降水量随时间变化都呈现不显著波动上升趋势。(2)内蒙古草原的月植被覆盖度对月降水量存在明显的1—2个月滞后效应和显著的累积效应,且表现出草原类型越干旱,滞后效应越明显的特征;相比草甸草原和典型草原,荒漠草原植被对降水量变化更加敏感。(3)内蒙古3类草原年平均植被覆盖度对降水量的响应,均表现出年、季、月尺度上分别受当年降水量、生长季降水量以及6、7、8月份降水量的显著影响的特征;3类草原年植被覆盖度与生长季降水线性拟合结果都较好,内蒙古3种草原类型的年植被覆盖度与降水量具有的强相关性,可为区域土壤侵蚀动态评价提供科学依据。     

地表植被景观对PM2.5浓度空间分布的影响研究

我国当前城市日益频发的雾霾问题引发公众广泛关注,PM_2.5被认为是雾霾的主要成因。研究认为,在某一区域短时间尺度上（如日）,PM_2.5浓度主要受气象条件影响。但在较长时间尺度上（如季,年）,由于气象条件基本相似,则PM_2.5浓度主要受土地利用特别是地表植被景观的影响。如何耦合地表植被景观格局与PM_2.5浓度信息,定量分析其影响是当前相关科学研究的一个难点,需要引入新思路。首先基于季节气象条件基本相似的科学假设,采用土地利用回归模型分四季高精度模拟PM_2.5浓度空间分布。其次,采用像元二分模型分四季估算研究区植被覆盖度。在此基础上采用随机抽样法通过统计回归模型耦合植被覆盖度与PM_2.5空间分布,定量研究植被覆盖度对PM_2.5分布影响及其尺度效应。研究结果表明：1）植被覆盖度与PM_2.5浓度在本研究选择的空间尺度上,都显著负相关,说明植被覆盖度对PM_2.5具有显著影响;同一个季节不同尺度上,以及不同季节同一尺度上的植被覆盖度对PM_2.5浓度的影响存在一定差异。2）植被覆盖度对PM_2.5浓度的影响方式比较复杂,不同的季节的表现方式不同,总体来说PM_2.5浓度与植被覆盖度曲线回归模型的拟合度高于线性回归模型,说明植被覆盖度对PM_2.5的影响具有非线性特征。3）不同的PM_2.5浓度水平下,植被覆盖度对PM_2.5浓度的影响程度存在差异。PM_2.5浓度越高,植被覆盖度对其浓度的影响越明显。本研究提出的区域尺度耦合地表植被覆盖与PM_2.5浓度的思路与方法,有效的揭示了植被覆盖度对PM_2.5浓度分布的影响方式与尺度效应,为通过优化城市植被缓解大气污染提供一定参考。     

土壤蒸发和植被蒸腾对三江源退化高寒草甸蒸散的影响

蒸散(ET)主要由土壤蒸发(E)和植被蒸腾(T)组成,然而难以把E与T从陆地生态系统ET中区分开。为阐明位于青海省境内的三江源区(89°24′—102°23′E, 31°39′—36°16′N)高寒草甸E和T对生态系统ET的影响,利用小型蒸渗仪和微气象系统定量研究了三江源退化高寒草甸ET、E和T的变化,以及植被和环境因子对其的影响。结果表明:2017和2018年的ET分别为467.7 mm和479.2 mm,其中生长季(5—9月)约占72%,且E对生态系统ET的贡献(56%)大于T(44%),年降水量(P)的90%以上通过ET返回大气(ET/P> 90%)。根据生长季中不同植被覆盖度的蒸渗仪观测结果发现,ET随植被覆盖度的降低而增加。逐步回归分析表明,净辐射(R_n)是驱动生态系统ET、E、T最主要的因子;另外,E对饱和水汽压差(VPD)的响应更敏感,而T受空气温度(T_a)的影响更大;土壤含水量(SWC₅)对蒸散的影响相对较小,可能由于研究区降水相对较多的原因。结果说明,草甸退化将加剧土壤蒸发,进而导致生态系统散失更...     

Confidence intervals for the difference in the success rates of two treatments in the analysis of correlated binary responses

In clinical studies, we often compare the success rates of two treatment groups where post‐treatment responses of subjects within clusters are usually correlated. To estimate the difference between the success rates, interval estimation procedures that do not account for this intraclass correlation are likely inappropriate. To address this issue, we propose three interval procedures by direct extensions of recently proposed methods for independent binary data based on the concepts of design effect and effective sample size used in sample surveys. Each of them is then evaluated with four competing variance estimates. We also extend three existing methods recommended for complex survey data using different weighting schemes required for those three existing methods. An extensive simulation study is conducted for the purposes of evaluating and comparing the performance of the proposed methods in terms of coverage and expected width. The interval estimation procedures are illustrated using three examples in clinical and social science studies. Our analytic arguments and numerical studies suggest that the methods proposed in this work may be useful in clustered data analyses.     

Increase in size and shrub cover improves bird functional diversity in Neotropical urban green spaces

Latin American cityscapes are growing fast, posing risks to many bird communities and ecosystem services (e.g. seed dispersal and arthropod population control), but few studies have addressed how bird functional diversity respond to urbanization in Neotropical cities. In this study, we tested which biotic (i.e. vegetation characteristics and human and pet disturbances) and abiotic variables (i.e. area size, number of vehicles, and glass panes) influence functional diversity indices of insectivores, frugivores-nectarivores, migrants, residents, and total bird community at urban green spaces in São Paulo megacity, southeastern Brazil. A rich avian community (235 species) from 25 studied sites was recorded. Generalized linear models (GLM) analyses showed that large-sized areas of urban green spaces and shrub cover are the main characteristics that drive high bird functional diversity. Small-sized sites were less favourable for preserving bird functional diversity. We showed that these areas were related to some negative impacts for bird species (e.g. absence of shrub layer, heavy traffic and massive presence of glass panes, and domestic animals), thus causing declines in avian functional diversity. Off-leash and homeless dogs and cats may cause declines in bird ecological functions (e.g. insect control, seed dispersal and pollination), which are essential to sustain biodiversity. Therefore, as management actions to improve bird diversity and better provisioning of ecosystem functions, we recommend that urban planners and managers should prioritize large-sized areas with high shrub cover. Additionally, we highlight the need to mitigate the negative impact on birds caused by glass panes, traffic of vehicles, and off-leash and homeless dogs and cats.     

Dental utilisation for older Americans aged 55–75

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to analyze a comprehensive nationally representative data set to determine the effect of economic and non economic determinants on the decision to seek care and the decision to select a specific number of dental visits. Design: The conduct of this study involved the examination and analyses of secondary data available from the National Health Interview Survey. A two-pan choice logistic regression model was utilized to first describe the decision to seek care and second to describe factors associated with the decision to select a specific number of dental visits as a function of income, education, family size, age, marital status, presence of teeth, employment status, health status, gender, race, insurance status, and reason for dental visit. Subjects: Data analysis focused on 5.327 non-institutional older adults between the ages of 55 and 75 who were not eligible for Medicaid. Results: Results provide supporting evidence that income, presence of dental insurance, presence of teeth, gender, family size, education race and age are associated with the decision to seek dental care and that income, presence of dental insurance, gender, family size, education, and race are associated with the number of dental visits among users even when the effects of other variables are controlled for. Discussion : Analyses suggest that employment may have a surprisingly limited effect on dental utilisation and that among explanatory variables there are differences in significance and magnitude between the decision to seek care and the decision to select a specific number of dental visits. In addition, in contrast with some prior studies, health status does not appear to be associated with the decision to seek care or associated with the number of dental visits among respondents.