An approach to the conditional error rate principle with nuisance parameters

In the presence of nuisance parameters, the conditional error rate principle is difficult to apply because of the dependency of the conditional error function of the preplanned test on nuisance parameters. To use the conditional error rate principle with nuisance parameters, we propose to search among tests that guarantee overall error control for the test that maximizes a weighted combination of the conditional error rates over possible values of the nuisance parameters. We show that the optimization problem that defines such a test can be solved efficiently by existing algorithms.     

Optimal life-history strategies in seasonal consumer-resource dynamics

The interplay between individual adaptive life histories and populations dynamics is an important issue in ecology. In this context, we considered a seasonal consumer-resource model with nonoverlapping generations. We focused on the consumers decision-making process through which they maximize their reproductive output via a differential investment into foraging for resources or reproducing. Our model takes a semi-discrete form, and is composed of a continuous time within-season part, similar to a dynamic model of energy allocation, and of a discrete time part, depicting the between seasons reproduction and mortality processes. We showed that the optimal foraging-reproduction strategies of the consumers may be "determinate" or "indeterminate" depending on the season length. More surprisingly, it depended on the consumers population density as well, with large densities promoting indeterminacy. A bifurcation analysis showed that the long-term dynamics produced by this model were quite rich, ranging from both populations' extinction, coexistence at some season-to-season equilibrium or on (quasi)-periodic motions, to initial condition-dependent dynamics. Interestingly, we observed that any long-term sustainable situation corresponds to indeterminate consumers' strategies. Finally, a comparison with a model involving typical nonoptimal consumers highlighted the stabilizing effects of the optimal life histories of the consumers.     

Otolith microchemistry of tropical diadromous fishes: spatial and migratory dynamics

Otolith microchemistry was applied to quantify migratory variation and the proportion of native Caribbean stream fishes that undergo full or partial marine migration. Strontium and barium water chemistry in four Puerto Rico, U.S.A., rivers was clearly related to a salinity gradient; however, variation in water barium, and thus fish otoliths, was also dependent on river basin. Strontium was the most accurate index of longitudinal migration in tropical diadromous fish otoliths. Among the four species examined, bigmouth sleeper Gobiomorus dormitor, mountain mullet Agonostomus monticola, sirajo goby Sicydium spp. and river goby Awaous banana, most individuals were fully amphidromous, but 9–12% were semi‐amphidromous as recruits, having never experienced marine or estuarine conditions in early life stages and showing no evidence of marine elemental signatures in their otolith core. Populations of one species, G. dormitor, may have contained a small contingent of semi‐amphidromous adults, migratory individuals that periodically occupied marine or estuarine habitats (4%); however, adult migratory elemental signatures may have been confounded with those related to diet and physiology. These findings indicate the plasticity of migratory strategies of tropical diadromous fishes, which may be more variable than simple categorization might suggest.     

Planktonic or non‐planktonic food in young‐of‐the‐year European perch Perca fluviatilis in ponds

Higher biomass especially of some aquatic macrophyte species offered a higher density of phytophilous zoobenthos, but did not increase the proportion of non‐planktonic to planktonic prey in young‐of‐the‐year perch Perca fluviatilis. Both abundance and biomass of non‐planktonic prey dominated over planktonic prey in the pond with lower biomass of aquatic macrophytes and lower food. Survival of P. fluviatilis was lower (20%) in the pond with lower food than in the other pond (34%), however, specific growth rate (1·3% day^?1) and final Fulton's condition factor of P. fluviatilis were similar in both ponds.     

Molecular data and ecological niche modelling reveal the Pleistocene history of a semi‐aquatic bug (Microvelia douglasi douglasi) in East Asia

This study investigated the Pleistocene history of a semi‐aquatic bug, Microvelia douglasi douglasi Scott, 1874 (Hemiptera: Veliidae) in East Asia. We used M. douglasi douglasi as a model species to explore the effects of historical climatic fluctuations on montane semi‐aquatic invertebrate species. Two hypotheses were developed using ecological niche models (ENMs). First, we hypothesized that M. douglasi douglasi persisted in suitable habitats in southern Guizhou, southern Yunnan, Hainan, Taiwan and southeast China during the LIG. After that, the populations expanded (Hypothesis 1). As the spatial prediction in the LGM was significantly larger than in the LIG, we then hypothesized that the population expanded during the LIG to LGM transition (Hypothesis 2). We tested these hypotheses using mitochondrial data (COI+COII) and nuclear data (ITS1 + 5.8S+ITS2). Young lineages, relatively deep splits, lineage differentiation among mountain ranges in central, south and southwest China and high genetic diversities were observed in these suitable habitats. Evidence of mismatch distributions and neutrality tests indicate that a population expansion occurred in the late Pleistocene. The Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) revealed an unusual population expansion that likely happened during the cooling transition between LIG and LGM. The results of genetic data were mostly consistent with the spatial predictions from ENM, a finding that can profoundly improve phylogeographic research. The ecological requirements of M. douglasi douglasi, together with the geographical heterogeneity and climatic fluctuations of Pleistocene in East Asia, could have shaped this unusual demographic history. Our study contributes to our knowledge of semi‐aquatic bug/invertebrate responses to Pleistocene climatic fluctuations in East Asia.     

Hollow occurrence and abundance varies with tree characteristics and among species in temperate woodland Eucalyptus

Tree hollows are a critical but diminishing resource for a wide range of fauna around the world. Conservation of these fauna depends on sustainable management of tree species that produce the hollows on which they depend. This study addressed the need for empirical data about intraspecific and interspecific variation in hollow occurrence and abundance in woodland trees in Australia. We measured and performed hollow surveys on 1817 trees of seven species of woodland Eucalyptus in central‐western New South Wales, Australia. Trees were surveyed at 51 one‐hectare sites and about 30% of trees surveyed had multiple stems. Generalized linear mixed models that accounted for nestedness of stems within trees and trees within sites detected a significant amount of variation in hollow occurrence and abundance. Models for individual tree stems of live trees showed hollow probability and abundance increased with diameter at breast height (DBH) and with increasing senescence (form). Stems of Eucalyptus microcarpa Maiden had a higher probability of having hollows than similar DBH stems of Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehnh., Eucalyptus melliodora A.Cunn. ex Schauer or Eucalyptus populnea ssp. bimbil L.A.S.Johnson & K.D.Hill. Dead stems in live trees were more likely to have hollows than live stems of similar DBH. Each stem in a multi‐stemmed tree had a lower probability of hollow occurrence and lower abundance of hollows than single‐stemmed trees of similar DBH. For stems of dead trees, hollow occurrence and abundance increased with DBH and differed depending on stage of senescence. A comparison of our data with other studies indicates regional variation of hollow abundances within tree species.     

The causal pie model: an epidemiological method applied to evolutionary biology and ecology

A general concept for thinking about causality facilitates swift comprehension of results, and the vocabulary that belongs to the concept is instrumental in cross‐disciplinary communication. The causal pie model has fulfilled this role in epidemiology and could be of similar value in evolutionary biology and ecology. In the causal pie model, outcomes result from sufficient causes. Each sufficient cause is made up of a “causal pie” of “component causes”. Several different causal pies may exist for the same outcome. If and only if all component causes of a sufficient cause are present, that is, a causal pie is complete, does the outcome occur. The effect of a component cause hence depends on the presence of the other component causes that constitute some causal pie. Because all component causes are equally and fully causative for the outcome, the sum of causes for some outcome exceeds 100%. The causal pie model provides a way of thinking that maps into a number of recurrent themes in evolutionary biology and ecology: It charts when component causes have an effect and are subject to natural selection, and how component causes affect selection on other component causes; which partitions of outcomes with respect to causes are feasible and useful; and how to view the composition of a(n apparently homogeneous) population. The diversity of specific results that is directly understood from the causal pie model is a test for both the validity and the applicability of the model. The causal pie model provides a common language in which results across disciplines can be communicated and serves as a template along which future causal analyses can be made.     

Germination sensitivities to water potential among co‐existing C3 and C4 grasses of cool semi‐arid prairie grasslands

An untested theory states that C₄ grass seeds could germinate under lower water potentials (Ψ) than C₃ grass seeds. We used hydrotime modelling to study seed water relations of C₄ and C₃ Canadian prairie grasses to address Ψ divergent sensitivities and germination strategies along a risk‐spreading continuum of responses to limited water. C₄ grasses were Bouteloua gracilis, Calamovilfa longifolia and Schizachyrium scoparium; C₃ grasses were Bromus carinatus, Elymus trachycaulus, Festuca hallii and Koeleria macrantha. Hydrotime parameters were obtained after incubation of non‐dormant seeds under different Ψ PEG 6000 solutions. A t‐test between C₃ and C₄ grasses did not find statistical differences in population mean base Ψ (Ψ_b(50)). We found idiosyncratic responses of C₄ grasses along the risk‐spreading continuum. B. gracilis showed a risk‐taker strategy of a species able to quickly germinate in a dry soil due to its low Ψ_b(50) and hydrotime (θ_H). The high Ψ_b(50) of S. scoparium indicates it follows the risk‐averse strategy so it can only germinate in wet soils. C. longifolia showed an intermediate strategy: the lowest Ψ_b(50) yet the highest θ_H. K. macrantha, a C₃ grass which thrives in dry habitats, had the highest Ψ_b(50), suggesting a risk‐averse strategy for a C₃ species. Other C₃ species showed intermediate germination patterns in response to Ψ relative to C₄ species. Our results indicate that grasses display germination sensitivities to Ψ across the risk‐spreading continuum of responses. Thus seed water relations may be poor predictors to explain differential recruitment and distribution of C₃ and C₄ grasses in the Canadian prairies.     

Early physiological flood tolerance is followed by slow post‐flooding root recovery in the dryland riparian tree Eucalyptus camaldulensis subsp. refulgens

We investigated physiological and morphological responses to flooding and recovery in Eucalyptus camaldulensis subsp. refulgens, a riparian tree species from a dryland region prone to intense episodic floods. Seedlings in soil flooded for 88 d produced extensive adventitious roots, displayed stem hypertrophy (stem diameter increased by 93%) and increased root porosity owing to aerenchyma formation. Net photosynthesis (P_n) and stomatal conductance (g_s) were maintained for at least 2 weeks of soil flooding, contrasting with previous studies of other subspecies of E. camaldulensis. Gradual declines followed in both g_s (30% less than controls) and P_n (19% less). Total leaf soluble sugars did not differ between flooded and control plants. Root mass did not recover 32 d after flooding ceased, but g_s was not lower than controls, suggesting the root system was able to functionally compensate. However, the limited root growth during recovery after flooding was surprising given the importance of extensive root systems in dryland environments. We conclude that early flood tolerance could be an adaptation to capitalize on scarce water resources in a water‐limited environment. Overall, our findings highlight the need to assess flooding responses in relation to a species' fitness for particular flood regimes or ecological niches.