Warming‐induced upward migration of the alpine treeline in the Changbai Mountains,northeast China

Treeline responses to environmental changes describe an important phenomenon in global change research. Often conflicting results and generally too short observations are, however, still challenging our understanding of climate‐induced treeline dynamics. Here, we use a state‐of‐the‐art dendroecological approach to reconstruct long‐term changes in the position of the alpine treeline in relation to air temperature at two sides in the Changbai Mountains in northeast China. Over the past 160 years, the treeline increased by around 80 m, a process that can be divided into three phases of different rates and drives. The first phase was mainly influenced by vegetation recovery after an eruption of the Tianchi volcano in 1702. The slowly upward shift in the second phase was consistent with the slowly increasing temperature. The last phase coincided with rapid warming since 1985, and shows with 33 m per 1°C, the most intense upward shift. The spatial distribution and age structure of trees beyond the current treeline confirm the latest, warming‐induced upward shift. Our results suggest that the alpine treeline will continue to rise, and that the alpine tundra may disappear if temperatures will increase further. This study not only enhances mechanistic understanding of long‐term treeline dynamics, but also highlights the effects of rising temperatures on high‐elevation vegetation dynamics.     

Aerial surveys suggest long‐term stability in the seasonally ice‐free Foxe Basin (Nunavut) polar bear population

Significant information gaps exist regarding the status of polar bears, especially with respect to the impacts of climate change, across large portions of the Arctic. To obtain an updated abundance estimate for the Foxe Basin population, we conducted comprehensive aerial surveys during the 2009 and 2010 ice‐free seasons, when bears are confined to land. We sampled with mark‐recapture distance sampling protocols on inland and coastal transects and surveyed small islands and remnant ice floes. We observed 816 and 1,003 bears in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Although detection functions differed substantially between years, estimates were consistent between analytical methods and years. Averaging four estimates (two from each year) yielded 2,585 (2,096–3,189) bears, which is similar to an estimate from the 1990s. This result, along with robust cub production, suggests a stable and healthy population despite deteriorating sea ice conditions. Collectively, this and other recent on‐land surveys provide a framework for implementing aerial surveys elsewhere. Although aerial surveys do not yield estimates of vital rates or population growth, they enable more rapid and frequent monitoring than mark‐recapture. Integrating them in long‐term monitoring programs will require consideration of ancillary data to infer status and facilitate setting harvest levels.     

中国北方草地土壤呼吸的空间变异及成因

土壤呼吸是陆地生态系统碳循环的关键指标,决定了土壤源二氧化碳(CO₂)进入大气的通量,对预测全球气候变化背景下区域乃至全球碳循环变化具有重要意义.本文通过室内短期培养试验测定了中国北方草地样带土壤样品的呼吸速率,研究了北方草地土壤呼吸的区域尺度格局及其与主要调控因子的关系.结果表明：土壤呼吸速率自西向东随年均降水量(MAP)增加呈逐渐增加的趋势,变化范围为0.35～2.09 μg CO₂C·g^-1·h^-1.其中,MAP<100 mm时,土壤呼吸速率为0.35～0.73 μg CO₂C·g^-1·h^-1;100 mm 2C·g^-1·h^-1;MAP>300 mm时,土壤呼吸速率为0.83～2.10 μg CO₂ C·g^-1·h^-1.土壤呼吸速率与年均降水量、地上生物量、土壤有机碳氮含量呈显著正相关,而与年均温和pH值呈显著负相关.增强回归树分析显示,年均降水量、地上生物量、土壤有机碳含量和土壤有机氮含量分别解释了土壤呼吸总变异的25.5%、23.6%、18.3%和12.5%,而土壤pH和年均温仅解释了10.8%和9.2%.     

Estimating the encounter rate variance in distance sampling

Summary .  The dominant source of variance in line transect sampling is usually the encounter rate variance. Systematic survey designs are often used to reduce the true variability among different realizations of the design, but estimating the variance is difficult and estimators typically approximate the variance by treating the design as a simple random sample of lines. We explore the properties of different encounter rate variance estimators under random and systematic designs. We show that a design-based variance estimator improves upon the model-based estimator of Buckland et al. (2001, Introduction to Distance Sampling. Oxford: Oxford University Press, p. 79) when transects are positioned at random. However, if populations exhibit strong spatial trends, both estimators can have substantial positive bias under systematic designs. We show that poststratification is effective in reducing this bias.     

A Model-Based Approach for Making Ecological Inference from Distance Sampling Data

Summary .  We consider a fully model-based approach for the analysis of distance sampling data. Distance sampling has been widely used to estimate abundance (or density) of animals or plants in a spatially explicit study area. There is, however, no readily available method of making statistical inference on the relationships between abundance and environmental covariates. Spatial Poisson process likelihoods can be used to simultaneously estimate detection and intensity parameters by modeling distance sampling data as a thinned spatial point process. A model-based spatial approach to distance sampling data has three main benefits: it allows complex and opportunistic transect designs to be employed, it allows estimation of abundance in small subregions, and it provides a framework to assess the effects of habitat or experimental manipulation on density. We demonstrate the model-based methodology with a small simulation study and analysis of the Dubbo weed data set. In addition, a simple ad hoc method for handling overdispersion is also proposed. The simulation study showed that the model-based approach compared favorably to conventional distance sampling methods for abundance estimation. In addition, the overdispersion correction performed adequately when the number of transects was high. Analysis of the Dubbo data set indicated a transect effect on abundance via Akaike's information criterion model selection. Further goodness-of-fit analysis, however, indicated some potential confounding of intensity with the detection function.     

Holocene forest development along the Setesdal valley, southern Norway, reconstructed from macrofossil and pollen evidence

The Setesdal valley in South Norway runs north to south for 200 km, from alpine vegetation at 1200 m, passing the tree-line at around 1000 m, through Boreal forests, to Nemoral forest at sea level. The Holocene vegetation history and its altitudinal differentiation were reconstructed using pollen percentages and influx and plant macrofossil concentration records from four lakes along an altitudinal transect. During the early Holocene (c. 10500–8000 cal b.p.) Betula pubescens, Pinus sylvestris, Alnus, and Corylus expanded in the lowlands. Only Pinus and B. pubescens reached 1000 m asl (Lille Kjelavatn). Only B. pubescens reached Holebudalen (1144 m asl) at about the same time as it arrived in the lowlands. Between c. 8000–3000 cal b.p. mixed deciduous forest developed around Dalane (40 m asl) and to a lesser extent around Grostjørna (180 m asl), birch woodland with pine surrounded Lille Kjelavatn and birch woodland occurred at Holebudalen. From c. 3000 cal b.p. to present, the vegetation at Dalane hardly changed except for slight human impact and the immigration of Picea abies. At Grostjørna Pinus expanded. At Lille Kjelavatn Pinus disappeared and Betula became sparse as at the tree-line today. Betula retreated from Holebudalen thus leaving it above the tree-line in low-alpine vegetation. The strengths and weaknesses of pollen and plant macrofossil data were assessed for forest reconstructions. Where local pollen production is low, as near the tree-line, percentages of long-distance tree pollen can be misleadingly high. Pollen influxes of Betula and Pinus were much smaller near their altitudinal limits than at lower altitudes, although their macrofossils were equally abundant. The limited dispersal capacity of macrofossils documents the local presence of species and the character of the local vegetation, although macrofossils of some tree taxa are rarely found. Pollen and plant macrofossil evidence complement each other to provide a more complete reconstruction of Holocene tree-limits and tree-lines and hence climate changes, than either form of evidence alone.     

Abundance estimation of long-diving animals using line transect methods

Line transect sampling is one of the most widely used methods for estimating the size of wild animal populations. An assumption in standard line transect sampling is that all the animals on the trackline are detected without fail. This assumption tends to be violated for marine mammals with surfacing/diving behaviors. The detection probability on the trackline is estimated using duplicate sightings from double-platform line transect methods. The double-platform methods, however, are insufficient to estimate the abundance of long-diving animals because these animals can be completely missed while the observers pass. We developed a more flexible hazard probability model that incorporates information on surfacing/diving patterns obtained from telemetry data. The model is based on a stochastic point process and is statistically tractable. A simulation study showed that the new model provides near-unbiased abundance estimates, whereas the traditional hazard rate and hazard probability models produce considerably biased estimates. As an illustration, we applied the model to data on the Baird's beaked whale (Berardius bairdii) in the western North Pacific.