Unravelling causal components of the Ordovician Radiation: the Builth Inlier (central Wales) as a case study

Hypotheses about the causes of biodiversification during the Ordovician have been focused in three main areas: tectonic activity and nutrient supply, palaeogeography, and ecological escalation. There is as yet no consensus on mechanisms, and it is unclear whether it is better to study the patterns at local or regional scales. By applying ecological knowledge to the available palaeontological information, it can be shown that neither tectonic nor palaeogeographic effects could account for the permanence of the diversity rise, in the absence of elements of ecological escalation. However, it may be possible to identify trigger mechanisms resulting in enhanced speciation or reduced extinction. Areas of local diversity increase should be distinguished from speciation centres. An ongoing study of the Middle Ordovician Builth-Llandrindod Inlier of central Wales, conducted over 10 years, has identified elements of all three of the above categories of causal mechanisms affecting local diversity. This implies that the patterns of causal relationship and diversification are complex even at very local scales, and at this stage we should not anticipate a clear correlation of global diversity with any single factor. More data are needed from small-scale but intensive studies before we can generalize about the causal mechanisms of the Ordovician Radiation.     

DETECTION OF SEA OTTERS IN BOAT-BASED SURVEYS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, ALASKA

Boat-based surveys have been commonly used to monitor sea otter populations, but there has been little quantitative work to evaluate detection biases that may affect these surveys. We used ground-based observers to investigate sea otter detection probabilities in a boat-based survey of Prince William Sound, Alaska. We estimated that 30% of the otters present on surveyed transects were not detected by boat crews. Approximately half (53%) of the undetected otters were missed because the otters left the transects, apparently in response to the approaching boat. Unbiased estimates of detection probabilities will be required for obtaining unbiased population estimates from boat-based surveys of sea otters. Therefore, boat-based surveys should include methods to estimate sea otter detection probabilities under the conditions specific to each survey. Unbiased estimation of detection probabilities with ground-based observers requires either that the ground crews detect all of the otters in observed subunits, or that there are no errors in determining which crews saw each detected otter. Ground-based observer methods may be appropriate in areas where nearly all of the sea otter habitat is potentially visible from ground-based vantage points.     

A comparison of video and point intercept transect methods for monitoring subtropical coral communities

This study evaluated the use of video transects obtained from SCUBA divers or remote operated vehicle (ROV) and point intercept transect (PIT) method from divers for monitoring subtropical coral communities. Comparisons were made between the datasets obtained by the ROV and SCUBA diver video transect (‘Diver’) and the PIT method on three nearby coral sites with different hydrographies, scleractinian coral composition, dominant species and percentage cover. There was no significant difference between the ROV and ‘Diver’ datasets whereas the PIT method tended to over-estimate percentage cover at sites where corals are not extensive. Power analysis showed that the minimum detectable change in coral percentage cover, δ, had low mean values between 0.39% and 1.65% for the ROV dataset, 0.66% for the “Diver’ dataset, and 12.11% for the PIT dataset. This implied that the ROV and SCUBA survey methods can produce higher precision in terms of detecting temporal changes in coral communities and are thus more suitable for scientific research and management purposes than the PIT method. Other advantages of using video transects by SCUBA divers or ROV include provision of permanent records for subsequent studies and public information, less field time incurred and wider survey areas.     

Censusing primates by transect in a forest of known primate density

A series of four transect or strip censuses of primates was carried out in a forest in eastern Colombia where the absolute density of the three diurnal species had been previously calculated during long-term studies. The diurnal species were Alouatta seniculus, Callicebus torquatus,and Cebus apella.Techniques were identical, except for a few variables tested for their effect on the experimental results;these included three different types of detection distances. Variable results were obtained for the two species having the smallest home ranges (A. seniculusand C. torquatus)with the most consistently accurate densities being calculated using the drop in the frequency distribution of sighting distances as a measure of the detection distance. Grossly inflated results were obtained for almost all calculations of C. apelladensity. The stimulus leading to the detection of particular primate groups was usually their vocalizations. Counts of recognized group members were inaccurate and short of the actual number of individuals in each group. Problems of censusing primates are discussed and some recommendations are made with respect to the use of the transect census method.     

Comparison of survey methods for wintering grassland birds

ABSTRACT Although investigators have evaluated the efficacy of survey methods for assessing densities of breeding birds, few comparisons have been made of survey methods for wintering birds, especially in grasslands. In winter, social behavior and spatial distributions often differ from those in the breeding season. We evaluated the degree of correspondence between density estimates based on different survey methods. Surveys were conducted during two winters (2001–2002 and 2002–2003) on 16 grassland sites in southwestern Oklahoma. Line‐transect (using a detection function to account for birds present but not detected) and area‐search (where density was based on the total count within a given area) methods were employed. Observations on line transects were also analyzed as strip transects, where density was based on total count within a given strip width and no detection function was used. Savannah Sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis), LeConte's Sparrows (Ammodramus leconteii), Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia), Smith's Longspurs (Calcarius pictus), Chestnut‐collared Longspurs (C. ornatus), and Eastern Meadowlarks (Sturnella magna) were sufficiently abundant to allow comparison. Area‐search density estimates tended to be higher than line‐transect estimates for Savannah Sparrows, Song Sparrows, and Eastern Meadowlarks, suggesting that some individuals initially located close to the transect line were not detected on line transects. The area‐search and line‐transect methods gave similar density estimates for Chestnut‐collared and Smith's longspurs. Area‐search estimates of Eastern Meadowlarks were significantly higher in the second year of the study only. For this species, area‐search estimates did not differ from those of strip transects covering an equal area, so the reason for the differing meadowlark estimates is not clear. Higher density estimates using the area‐search method likely resulted from: (1) birds that might escape detection by hiding were more likely detected (flushed) during area searches because of the repeated passes through the area, and (2) birds close to the line in line transects escape detection by hiding, biasing those estimates low. We also evaluated the correspondence of density rankings for the six species as determined by the different survey methods and for the same species across survey sites. Correlations among the six species of the area‐search results with those of line transects and strip transects generally were high, increasing in 2002–2003 when densities of birds were greater. All three methods provided similar density rankings among species. Density rankings within species across sites for the four non‐longspur species generally were concordant for the three methods, suggesting that any of them will adequately reflect among‐site differences, especially when densities vary greatly across sites. Further research is needed to determine the extent to which grassland birds are missed on line transects. We suggest that workers using line transects to study these species give careful consideration and make additional efforts to satisfy the distance‐sampling assumption that all birds on or near the line are detected. If density is measured as a total count in a fixed area, we recommend that observers pass within <10 m of all points in the area.     

Potential impacts of climate change on nitrogen transformations and greenhouse gas fluxes in forests: a soil transfer study

Relatively little research has been conducted on how climate change may affect the structure and function of arid to semiarid ecosystems of the American Southwest. Along the slopes of the San Francisco Peaks of Arizona, USA, I transferred intact soil cores from a spruce‐fir to a ponderosa pine forest 730 m lower in elevation to assess the potential impacts of climate change on soil N cycling and trace gas fluxes. The low‐elevation site has a mean annual soil temperature about 2.5°C higher than the high‐elevation site. Net rates of N transformations and trace gas fluxes were measured in high‐elevation soil cores incubated in situ and soil cores transferred to the low‐elevation site. Over a 13‐month period, volumetric soil water content was similar in transferred soil cores relative to soil cores incubated in situ. Net N mineralization and nitrification increased over 80% in transferred soil cores compared with in situ soil cores. Soil transfer significantly increased net CO₂ efflux (120%) and net CH₄ consumption (90%) relative to fluxes of these gases from soil cores incubated in situ. Soil net N₂O fluxes were relatively low and were not generally altered by soil transfer. Although the soil microbial biomass as a whole decreased in transferred soil cores compared with in situ soil cores after the incubation period, active bacterial biomass increased. Transferring soil cores from the low‐elevation to the high‐elevation site (i.e. simulated global cooling) commonly, but not consistently, resulted in the opposite effects on soil pools and processes. In general, soil containment (root trenching) did not significantly affect soil measurements. My results suggest that small increases in mean annual temperature can have large impacts on soil N cycling, soil–atmosphere trace gas exchanges, and soil microbial communities even in ecosystems where water availability is a major limiting resource.     

Incorporating covariates into standard line transect analyses

An implicit assumption of standard line transect methodology is that detection probabilities depend solely on the perpendicular distance of detected objects to the transect line. Heterogeneity in detection probabilities is commonly minimized using stratification, but this may be precluded by small sample sizes. We develop a general methodology which allows the effects of multiple covariates to be directly incorporated into the estimation procedure using a conditional likelihood approach. Small sample size properties of estimators are examined via simulations. As an example the method is applied to eastern tropical Pacific dolphin sightings data.     

Abundance estimation of diving animals by the double-platform line transect method

In conventional line transect theory, it is assumed that all animals on the line are detected. This article introduces an extended and generalized hazard probability model without the need for such an assumption. The proposed method needs a survey design with independent observers having the same visual region and assumes an explicit distinction of simultaneous and delayed duplicates. It can take account of random heterogeneity caused by surfacing behavior as well as systematic heterogeneity by covariate effects. Furthermore, it can be easily extended to cases in which data from incompletely independent observers are available. The abundance estimate is based on the Horvitz-Thompson estimator in unequal detectability sampling scheme. Simulation studies suggest that the proposed method has good performance. The method is applied to a real data set on Antarctic minke whales in the illustration.     

Calculation of collated indices of abundance of butterflies based on monitored sites

Abstract.

• 1 The Butterfly Monitoring Scheme uses regular transect counts on fixed sites to establish annual indices of abundance of butterfly species in the United Kingdom. The annual change in collated index for each species has hitherto been calculated as a simple ratio between total counts summed over all participating sites.
• 2 A revised method for calculation of collated indices is proposed, which applies a logarithmic transformation to site values so as to downweight the influence on the index of the sites with greatest numbers of a species. Zero counts are handled comparably with non-zero values. An alternative method using geometric mean ratios is also examined.
• 3 Indices calculated using the logarithmic transformation are compared with those calculated using the traditional method. Two internal tests of dependency of collated indices on the sites with highest abundance are made. Another evaluation uses regression analysis for the effects of temperature and rainfall on collated indices of butterfly abundance.
• 4 The first internal test shows that logarithmic transformation reduces the dependence of the collated index on the sites of highest abundance for twenty-five out of twenty-seven species examined; while a second test shows a reduction for twenty-six out of forty-two species, and an increase for one species. The number of significant regressions on temperature variables increases with the use of the logarithmic transformation from 11% to 13% of tests made, and on rainfall from 10% to 11%.
• 5 The geometric mean ratio method introduces considerable biases in its treatment of zero values, for which a remedy is not available.
• 6 Although the revised collated indices calculated using logarithmic transformation are broadly comparable with traditionally calculated values, the reductions in dependency on sites with the most abundant populations render the revised indices less subject to perturbation due to local ‘noise’, and so more suitable for research on factors influencing butterfly abundance.