昆虫迁飞行为的参数化Ⅱ.模式与检验

对通过昆虫迁飞行为分析得到的迁飞时间参数、高度参数、速度和方向参数等分别以一定的数学形式加以表达。其中,起飞时间以日出日没及晨昏朦影时刻为基准,用天文公式求出;边界层顶与飞行低温阈限所在高度及运行高度上的风速、风向由一维湍能（ＴＫＥ）模式以Ｅ－ε闭合做数值模拟：对飞行力较弱的小型或微小昆虫做随风运行处理,而对大型昆虫则根据其自身的飞行速度和定向方位与其飞行高度上的风向风速做矢量运算,求得位移方向和速度。通过我国小地老虎和草地螟标放回收试验结果的检验,表明本文提出的迁飞行为参数化方案是合理可行的。以此为基础组建数值模型进行昆虫迁飞轨迹分析,可望进一步提高迁飞性害虫异地预测的水平     

国外旅游生态效率优化与管理

旅游生态效率概念采用定量化方法对旅游业经济、环境影响进行分析,成为旅游业可持续发展评价的重要工具。基于可持续理论的旅游生态效率优化管理方案不断涌现,相关利益主体应用较多的有环境管理系统、旅游生态标签、清洁生产理念、旅游生态效率中心、21世纪地方议程等。在旅游企业日常运营中积极推动生态效率优化管理,是贯彻绿色发展理念,提高目的地旅游经济、环境绩效的一种新思路。从可持续背景下旅游生态效率优化模型入手,系统化分析了国外旅游生态效率优化管理方案的内容与特征。其中,环境管理系统在目的地层面为旅游生态效率优化设计了一套评估管理流程,旅游生态标签为目的地生态效率水平提供了可视化标志符号,21世纪地方议程为旅游可持续发展提供一致性整合方案,清洁生产理念是一种基于生态效率优化的长期战略,旅游生态效率中心作为非营利性机构有利于中小企业获得较好的环境绩效表现。国外旅游生态效率优化管理方案特征明显、设计合理、管理科学,对我国目的地旅游生态效率优化提升具有重要的借鉴作用。     

全球气候治理新进展——区域碳排放权分配研究综述

碳排放权作为稀缺的公共资源,其实质是一种新型发展权。科学合理分配有限的碳排放权对实现《巴黎协定》温控目标至关重要。从原则、方法、尺度与方案等维度对碳排放权分配的文献成果进行了系统梳理与归纳。研究表明,国内外学者大多基于公平性和效率性原则探索碳排放权分配;分配方法分为指标法、博弈论法、数据包络分析法和综合法等,各有利弊和适用条件;分配尺度大多涉及国际和区际两个层面,前者由于各国不同的利益诉求较难形成共识性方案,后者主要关注省际分配,更小尺度的研究相对较少。未来碳排放权分配研究趋向于多原则兼顾、多方法联用,涵盖国际、省际、市际及行业、企业等不同尺度。本研究可为制定科学合理的碳排放权分配方案提供理论依据,为我国更为积极有效地参与全球气候治理提供决策参考。     

低覆盖度下两种行带式固沙林内风速流场和防风效果

研究在风速为10m/s和15m/s的风洞实验条件下,覆盖度为20%和25%的单行一带和两行一带模式乔木固沙林内的水平和垂直空间的风速变化情况,达到对两种不同模式的风速流场和防风效果进行比较分析的目的。通过分析得出:两种配置模式都形成了风影区和风速加速区相互组合的复杂的水平流场结构。两种模式对垂直空间风速影响相近,根据对不同高度风速的不同影响划分为微变化层(20-35 cm)、显著变化层(6-12 cm)和稳定变化层(0.4-3 cm)层次,两种模式在这几个层次风速表现出相同的变化规律。两行一带模式在第一带前降低水平空间风速的效果低于单行一带模式,第一带后高于后者。降低垂直空间风速规律为:对0.4-50 cm高度的风速均有一定的降低作用,0.4-12 cm高度的风速的降低效果较显著,且两行一带模式降低近地表(0.4 cm)风速的效果要高于单行一带模式。     

几种农艺因素影响小麦籽粒蛋白质含量的数学模型研究

用二次回归旋转组合设计研究了基本亩数（X_1）、基苗氮肥（X_2）、孕穗期氮肥（X_3)、过磷酸钙（X_4）和氯化钾（X_5）用量对小麦籽粒蛋白质含量的影响．结果表明,X_4、X_1和X_2对蛋白质含量有显著作用,因素之间存在着复杂的互作效应．利用计算机模拟选优,获得了本试验条件下蛋白质含量大于13％的5个农艺因素组合方案,X_1=172.35～186.75万／ha;x_2=116.6～123.6kg／ha;x_3=33.75～39.15kg／ha;x_4=333.9～448.8kg／ha;x_5=190.65～233.10kg／ha．     

A simple mathematical model for Ebola in Africa

We deal with the following question: Can the consumption of contaminated bush meat, the funeral practices and the environmental contamination explain the recurrence and persistence of Ebola virus disease outbreaks in Africa? We develop an SIR-type model which, incorporates both the direct and indirect transmissions in such a manner that there is a provision of Ebola viruses. We prove that the full model has one (endemic) equilibrium which is locally asymptotically stable whereas, it is globally asymptotically stable in the absence of the Ebola virus shedding in the environment. For the sub-model without the provision of Ebola viruses, the disease dies out or stabilizes globally at an endemic equilibrium. At the endemic level, the number of infectious is larger for the full model than for the sub-model without provision of Ebola viruses. We design a nonstandard finite difference scheme, which preserves the dynamics of the model. Numerical simulations are provided.     

Incongruence in molecular species delimitation schemes: What to do when adding more data is difficult

Using multiple, independent approaches to molecular species delimitation is advocated to accommodate limitations and assumptions of a single approach. Incongruence in delimitation schemes is a potential by‐product of employing multiple methods on the same data, and little attention has been paid to its reconciliation. Instead, a particular scheme is prioritized, and/or molecular delimitations are coupled with additional, independent lines of evidence that mitigate incongruence. We advocate that incongruence within a line of evidence should be accounted for before comparing across lines of evidence that can themselves be incongruent. Additionally, it is not uncommon for empiricists working in nonmodel systems to be data‐limited, generating some concern for the adequacy of available data to address the question of interest. With conservation and management decisions often hinging on the status of species, it seems prudent to understand the capabilities of approaches we use given the data we have. Here, we apply two molecular species delimitation approaches, spedeSTEM and BPP, to the Castilleja ambigua (Orobanchaceae) species complex, a relatively young plant lineage in western North America. Upon finding incongruence in our delimitation, we employed a post hoc simulation study to examine the power of these approaches to delimit species. Given the data we collected, we find that spedeSTEM lacks the power to delimit while BPP is capable, thus allowing us to address incongruence before proceeding in delimitation. We suggest post hoc simulation studies like this compliment empirical delimitation and serve as a means of exploring conflict within a line of evidence and dealing with it appropriately.     

Occurrence of potato virus X strain group 1 in seed stocks of potato cultivars lacking resistance genes

Potato virus X (PVX) isolates were obtained from a simple seed potato production scheme or from ware potatoes produced by seed potatoes obtained from it. In this scheme, PVX infection is widespread in seed stocks and most of the potatoes grown lack PVX resistance genes. Thirteen PVX isolates were typed to strain group by inoculation to potato cultivars containing different combinations of hypersensitivity genes Nx and Nb. Six failed to overcome either gene and therefore belonged to strain group 1, four overcame Nb only and were placed in strain group 3 and three were mixtures of the two. All 13 isolates failed to overcome extreme resistance/immunity gene Rx. Naturally infected cultivars of genotype nx.nb contained strain group 1 alone or strain groups 1 and 3, while those of genotype nx:Nb contained only strain group 3. The widespread occurrence of strain group 1 contrasts with the predominant occurrence of strain group 3 in potatoes in the UK. However, it resembles the UK situation before sophisticated seed potato production schemes were introduced and before PVX hypersensitivity genes Nx and Nb were deliberately exploited in potato breeding. Prior infection with potato leafroll virus (PLRV) did not affect expression of hypersensitivity to PVX in inoculated leaves of an nx:Nb genotype.     

Building anisotropic sampling schemes for the estimation of anisotropic dispersal

Anisotropy, a structural property of dispersal, is observed in dispersal patterns occurring for a wide range of biological systems. While dispersal models more and more often incorporate anisotropy, the sampling schemes required to collect data for validation usually do not account for the anisotropy of dispersal data. Using a parametric model already published to describe the spatial spread of a plant disease, the wheat yellow rust, we carry out a study aimed at recommending an appropriate sampling scheme for anisotropic data. In a first step, we show with a simulation study that prior knowledge of dispersal anisotropy can be used to improve the sampling scheme. One of the main guidelines to be proposed is the orientation of the sampling grid around the main dispersal directions. In a second step, we propose a sequential sampling procedure (SSP) used to automatically build anisotropic sampling schemes adapted to the actual anisotropy of dispersal. The SSP is applied to simulated and real data. The proposed methodology is expected to be adapted easily to any kind of organisms with wind-borne propagule dispersal because it does not require the inclusion of biological features specific of the considered organism.     

Are island‐like systems biologically similar to islands? A review of the evidence

Islands are geographically defined as land masses completely surrounded by water, and island systems have been used as models for many biogeographic, ecological, and evolutionary theories ever since Darwin's pioneering efforts. However, their biological definition is complex. Over the past few decades these theories have been applied to many study systems that only share some geographic features with island systems. These features include spatial fragmentation, limited area, spatial and temporal isolation from adjacent parts of the system, and low connectivity between different parts within the system, to mention just a few. These systems vary in their form, the matrix that surrounds them, the factors defining their borders, the extent of insularity they impose on the different taxa, and their geological similarity to different types of actual islands. Here, I seek to understand whether such island‐like systems (ILS) function biologically as true islands. In the first part, I describe the wide diversity of ILS suggested in the literature and the variation in the features that define their insularity. In the second part, I review the extent to which the main theories of island biology are applicable to these systems: species–area and species–isolation relationships, community composition, evolutionary radiations, and the extent of endemism and genetic diversity. In the third and final part, I suggest a new conceptual framework within which to classify and study the biology of ILS, as well as practical future research directions. I conclude that the term ‘biological island’ is a multi‐faceted concept, loosely related to its geographical definition. As ILS are often less isolated than true islands, and their biological patterns are only partly similar to those of true islands (and even this is true only for some ILS) the use of the term ‘island’ to describe any isolated habitat is therefore inappropriate.