应用地理信息系统模拟森林景观动态的研究

根据地理信息系统的结构,通过数据文件的转换,把它与森林动态模型有机地结合起来,可实现对森林景观动态的模拟和预测。这种模拟方法的数据输入灵活,运行速度快,尤其是它可以获得一些以各种图表的形式输出的模拟结果。本文用文字和框图详细描述了地理信息系统的组成与结构,及森林动态模型的选择与运行方式,并以长白山森林景观为例,叙述了这种模拟方法的整个过程。     

Lethal mutagenesis and evolutionary epidemiology

The lethal mutagenesis hypothesis states that within-host populations of pathogens can be driven to extinction when the load of deleterious mutations is artificially increased with a mutagen, and becomes too high for the population to be maintained. Although chemical mutagens have been shown to lead to important reductions in viral titres for a wide variety of RNA viruses, the theoretical underpinnings of this process are still not clearly established. A few recent models sought to describe lethal mutagenesis but they often relied on restrictive assumptions. We extend this earlier work in two novel directions. First, we derive the dynamics of the genetic load in a multivariate Gaussian fitness landscape akin to classical quantitative genetics models. This fitness landscape yields a continuous distribution of mutation effects on fitness, ranging from deleterious to beneficial (i.e. compensatory) mutations. We also include an additional class of lethal mutations. Second, we couple this evolutionary model with an epidemiological model accounting for the within-host dynamics of the pathogen. We derive the epidemiological and evolutionary equilibrium of the system. At this equilibrium, the density of the pathogen is expected to decrease linearly with the genomic mutation rate U. We also provide a simple expression for the critical mutation rate leading to extinction. Stochastic simulations show that these predictions are accurate for a broad range of parameter values. As they depend on a small set of measurable epidemiological and evolutionary parameters, we used available information on several viruses to make quantitative and testable predictions on critical mutation rates. In the light of this model, we discuss the feasibility of lethal mutagenesis as an efficient therapeutic strategy.     

Bird communities in traditional wood-pastures with changing management in Eastern Europe

Wood-pastures are fragile ecosystems because they were formed by, and depend on specific, low-intensity multifunctional management. Although their ecological and cultural significance is high, wood-pastures are rapidly deteriorating all over Europe, mainly due to changing land use. We still lack a basic understanding of the ecological value of wood-pastures, and in which features they differ from other landscape elements. In this paper we investigated the ecological value of wood-pastures for passerine birds by (i) comparing bird assemblages of wood-pastures with those of closed forests and open pastures and (ii) exploring the relationships between variables describing wood-pastures and species traits of the bird assemblages. Our study region (Southern Transylvania, Romania) provides a unique opportunity to understand the importance of a traditional cultural and ecological environment for many different organisms. Wood-pastures had a higher overall number of bird species, and a higher spatial turnover in bird community composition than closed forests and open pastures. We found significant associations between bird species traits and habitat structural elements in wood-pastures such as large trees, oak- and pear trees and shrubs. Our findings suggest that traditional wood-pastures in Southern Transylvania have distinct and rich passerine bird communities. This richness is inextricably linked to the multifunctional, low-intensity land use traditionally applied in the wood-pastures that promotes high niche diversity. For effective conservation of the biodiversity of wood-pastures, a detailed understanding is needed of how different management regimes may influence the key structural elements of wood-pastures relevant for biodiversity and these should be protected.     

Landscape structure influences tree density patterns in fragmented woodlands in semi‐arid eastern Australia

Landscape and local‐scale influences are important drivers of plant community structure. However, their relative contribution and the degree to which they interact remain unclear. We quantified the extent to which landscape structure, within‐patch habitat and their confounding effects determine post‐clearing tree densities and composition in agricultural landscapes in eastern subtropical Australia. Landscape structure (incorporating habitat fragmentation and loss) and within‐patch (site) features were quantified for 60 remnant patches of Eucalyptus populnea (Myrtaceae) woodland. Tree density and species for three ecological maturity classes (regeneration, early maturity, late maturity) and local site features were assessed in one 100 × 10 m plot per patch. All but one landscape characteristic was determined within a 1.3‐km radius of plots; Euclidean nearest neighbour distance was measured inside a 5‐km radius. Variation in tree density and composition for each maturity class was partitioned into independent landscape, independent site and joint effects of landscape and site features using redundancy analysis. Independent site effects explained more variation in regeneration density and composition than pure landscape effects; significant predictors were the proportion of early and late maturity trees at a site, rainfall and the associated interaction. Conversely, landscape structure explained greater variation in early and late maturity tree density and composition than site predictors. Area of remnant native vegetation within a landscape and patch characteristics (area, shape, edge contrast) were significant predictors of early maturity tree density. However, 31% of the explained variation in early mature tree differences represented confounding influences of landscape and local variables. We suggest that within‐patch characteristics are important in influencing semi‐arid woodland tree regeneration. However, independent and confounding effects of landscape structure resulting from previous vegetation clearing may have exerted a greater historical influence on older cohorts and should be accounted for when examining woodland dynamics across a broader range of environments.     

Characterizing the spatial distribution of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) in fragmented forest landscapes

Aim To examine the effects of forest fragmentation on the distribution of the entire wild giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) population, and to propose a modelling approach for monitoring the spatial distribution and habitat of pandas at the landscape scale using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro‐radiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index (EVI) time‐series data. Location Five mountain ranges in south‐western China (Qinling, Minshan, Qionglai, Xiangling and Liangshan). Methods Giant panda pseudo‐absence data were generated from data on panda occurrences obtained from the third national giant panda survey. To quantify the fragmentation of forests, 26 fragmentation metrics were derived from 16‐day composite MODIS 250‐m EVI multi‐temporal data and eight of these metrics were selected following factor analysis. The differences between panda presence and panda absence were examined by applying significance testing. A forward stepwise logistic regression was then applied to explore the relationship between panda distribution and forest fragmentation. Results Forest patch size, edge density and patch aggregation were found to have significant roles in determining the distribution of pandas. Patches of dense forest occupied by giant pandas were significantly larger, closer together and more contiguous than patches where giant pandas were not recorded. Forest fragmentation is least in the Qinling Mountains, while the Xiangling and Liangshan regions have most fragmentation. Using the selected landscape metrics, the logistic regression model predicted the distribution of giant pandas with an overall accuracy of 72.5% (κ = 0.45). However, when a knowledge‐based control for elevation and slope was applied to the regression, the overall accuracy of the model improved to 77.6% (κ = 0.55). Main conclusions Giant pandas appear sensitive to patch size and isolation effects associated with fragmentation of dense forest, implying that the design of effective conservation areas for wild giant pandas must include large and dense forest patches that are adjacent to other similar patches. The approach developed here is applicable for analysing the spatial distribution of the giant panda from multi‐temporal MODIS 250‐m EVI data and landscape metrics at the landscape scale.     

清代北京会馆园林述略

清代北京外城地区修建了大量的会馆,作为各地同乡或商业行会的聚会、住宿、祭祀场所,其中部分会馆设有专门的园林,园内营造用于宴饮的厅堂,布置亭轩楼台等建筑,并堆叠假山、开辟池沼、种植花木,形成一种独立的园林类型。通过文献考证和现场调查,对清代北京会馆园林的主要实例进行记述,并对其造园意匠做进一步的分析。总体而言,这些园林的格局较为方整,建筑形式以厅堂、亭、轩为主,假山多以青石叠置,水景简单,植物多为易于维护的品种,匾额、楹联富有文化寓意并反映其故乡特色。