椰子叶螨Aceria(Eriophyes)guerreronis对我国椰子产业的风险性分析

[目的]明确刺吸式害虫椰子叶螨对我国椰子产业的风险,为该虫的检验检疫和应急防控提供参考.[方法]从椰子叶螨的国内外发生现状、潜在危害性、受害作物的经济重要性、定殖扩散的可能性以及风险管理的难度等方面,对椰子叶螨危害我国椰子产业的风险性进行定性和定量评估.[结果]椰子叶螨个体较小、传播方式多样、检疫和灭除难度较大,根据有...     

不同区域森林火灾对生态因子的响应及其概率模型

火灾是影响森林生态系统过程的重要干扰之一,其对森林生态系统内各生态因子的响应各不相同.由于植被状况及生态环境的不同,森林火灾的时空分布特征在中国不同植被气候类型内表现不同,根据植被气候类型分类系统,将中国主要森林火灾地区划分为4个区域:东北(冷温带松林)、华北(落叶阔叶林)、东南(常绿阔叶林)和西南(热带雨林),应用遥感监测数据和地面环境数据,以时空变量、生态因子(植被生长变化指数、湿度等)为可选自变量,应用半参数化Logistic回归模型,就森林火险对不同生态影响因子的响应规律进行了分析,建立了基于生态因子的着火概率模型和大火蔓延概率模型,通过模拟及实际数据散点图、火险概率图,评估了模型应用价值.结果表明,土壤湿度及植被含水量在落叶阔叶林、常绿阔叶林、热带雨林地区对着火概率影响显著.在4个植被气候区内,土壤及凋落物湿度对大火蔓延的作用较小.在冷温带松林、落叶阔叶林、常绿阔叶林地区,植被生长的年内变化对火灾发生的影响显著,在常绿阔叶林地区,年内植被生长变化对大火蔓延的作用较小.森林火险概率与各生态因子的相关关系主要呈现出非线性.不同植被气候区内,火险概率受不同生态因子组合的影响,这与不同区域的植被状况及生态环境不同有关.在不同植被气候类型,应用时空变量、生态因子建立半参数化logistic回归模型,进行着火概率和大火蔓延概率的模拟具有可行性和实际应用能力.为进一步分析森林生态系统与火灾之间的动态关系、展开生态系统火灾干扰研究提供了理论基础.     

外来入侵杂草传统生物防治的生态风险及其防范对策

长期大量实践说明,引进天敌防治外来入侵杂草的传统生物防治方法是治理外来入侵杂草的一条切实可行的有效途径,但对其潜在的生态风险——对本土生物的直接或间接不良影响不容忽视。利用传统评价方法预测候选天敌的生态风险存在缺陷,主要表现在：（1）寄主专一性测定过分依赖室内进行的生理寄主范围测定结果,对生态寄主范围（实际寄主范围）问题重视不够,后者指在新环境中的一系列物理和生物条件下的寄主利用预测;（2）在生理寄主范围测定中,过分依赖完成生长发育的可能性,对行为、遗传性状以及系统发育关系重视不够;（3）在风险评估中,过多强调对经济作物的风险,而对自然生态系统的风险重视不够。对此,建议：（1）鼓励对已释放的天敌进行回顾性跟踪研究,从而为杂草生物防治实践提供生态学理论支撑;（2）在运用生物防治手段对付外来入侵杂草实践中,建议采用“有害推论”的预防性原则,以避免在面临入侵生物重大威胁时草率做出释放天敌的决策;（3）在评估候选天敌风险中重视生态效应的风险评估。     

Environmental risk assessment of manganese and its associated heavy metals in a stream impacted by manganese mining in South China

In South China, high manganese content in the drinking water source influenced by upstream manganese mine drainage has become a major concern. To investigate the extent of metal pollution and environmental risk in upstream sediments and native aquatic macrophytes, a study was conducted on a manganese mining-impacted river named the Heishui River. The results indicated that streambed sediments collected were polluted by Mn and other metals with the highest contents of Mn 43349.4 mg kg^?1, Pb 128.6 mg kg^?1, Zn 502.9 mg kg^?1, and Cu 107.2 mg kg^?1. The level of Mn in all sediments was higher than the consensus-based Probable Effect Concentration, indicating that adverse effects on sediment-dwelling organisms were likely to occur frequently. Among the studied metals, Mn had the highest bioavailability and ecological risk, followed by Zn. Native aquatic macrophytes accumulate large amounts of the studied metals. A significantly positive correlation was found between exchangeable fractions of the studied metals in sediments and in aquatic macrophytes. The risk assessment code showed the following risk levels of metals in sediments in descending order: Mn > Zn > Cu > Pb. In conclusion, the river impacted by manganese mining drainage poses a high risk to both the local ecosystem and downstream drinking water.     

Boats, Pathways, and Aquatic Biological Invasions: Estimating Dispersal Potential with Gravity Models

Biological invaders can have dramatic effects on the environment and the economy. To most effectively manage these invaders, we should consider entire pathways, because multiple species are dispersed through the same vectors. In this paper, we use production-constrained gravity models to describe movement of recreational boaters between lakes – potentially the most important pathway of overland dispersal for many aquatic organisms. These models are advantageous because they require relatively easily acquired data, hence are relatively easy to build. We compare linear and non-linear gravity models and show that, despite their simplicity, they are able to capture important characteristics of the recreational boater pathway. To assess our model, we compared observed data based on creel surveys and mailed surveys of recreation boaters to the model output. Specifically, we evaluate four metrics of pathway characteristics: boater traffic to individual lakes, distances traveled to reach these lakes, Great Lakes usage and movement from the Great Lakes to inland waters. These factors will influence the propagule pressure (hence the probability of establishment of invasive populations) and the rate of spread across a landscape. The Great Lakes are of particular importance because they are a major entry point of non-indigenous species from other continents, hence will act as the origin for further spread across states. The non-linear model had the best fit between model output and empirical observations with r² =0.80, r² =0.35, r² =0.57, and r² =0.36 for the four metrics, respectively. For the distances traveled to individual lakes, r² improved from 0.35 to 0.76 after removal of an outlier. Our results suggest that we were able to capture distances traveled to most but not all lakes. Thus, we demonstrate that production-constrained gravity models will be generally useful for modeling invasion pathways between non-contiguous locations.     

从美国 FDA 审评角度探讨新药研发的风险控制

众所周知,新药研发是一个漫长而艰难的过程,投入大,但成功率低。从项目的选择、分子结构最优化、靶点的选择、体外实 验结果与体内反应的一致性、药物安全性、临床试验设计优化以及对新药研发相关法规的理解、与监管部门的有效沟通等诸方面,探讨 对新药研发风险的把控。     

数据噪音构建基因布尔网络模型的方法

在分析基因数据时,往往有噪音出现,因此借用基因表达谱数据中的噪音来建立卡诺图,可以得到布尔网络逻辑函数。而且利用此方法确定蛋白质与蛋白质之间的逻辑关系,建立蛋白质的逻辑网络。通过该方法可以寻找直系同源簇蛋白质数据的逻辑关系。     

Using the concept of Chou's pseudo amino acid composition for risk type prediction of human papillomaviruses

High-risk types of human papillomaviruses (HPVs) are the etiological agents in nearly all cases (99.7%) of cervical cancer, and the HPV E6 protein is one of the two viral oncoproteins which is expressed in virtually all HPV-positive cancers. Therefore, classifying the risk type of HPVs is very useful and necessary for diagnosis and remedy of cervical cancer. To predict and to classify the risk types of HPV by bioinformatics analysis, 96 E6 protein sequences from available databases were obtained. To investigate the risk type of these sequences, PseAAC server, ROC curves and statistical analysis were applied. Our classification was based on some characters of HPV E6 proteins, such as hydrophobicity, hydrophilicity, side chain mass, PK of the α-COOH group, PK of the α-NH3⁺ group and PI at 25 °C. Risk type of 4 unknown HPV types and 25 non-reported HPV types were also predicted. These results show that bioinformatics based theoretical approaches can direct and simplify experimental studies.     

17β-雌二醇对剑尾鱼卵黄蛋白原的诱导研究

目的研究17β-雌二醇(E2)暴露对雄性剑尾鱼(Xiphophorus helleri)卵黄蛋白原(vitellogenin,Vtg)诱导作用作为环境风险评价(ERA)的有效生物学标记的可行性。方法以E2诱导的剑尾鱼雄性个体的整体匀浆液为材料,采用Sephacryl S-300凝胶过滤层析柱和QSepharose阴离子交换柱从剑尾鱼体内提纯Vtg。结果确定了被纯化的剑尾鱼Vtg在4%~7.5%Native PAGE电泳中相对分子质量为540×103。4%~7.5%Native PAGE电泳后的凝胶分别利用苏丹黑B进行脂蛋白染色、高碘酸-Schiff试剂进行糖蛋白染色和甲基绿进行磷蛋白染色,表明剑尾鱼Vtg是一种富含糖、脂、磷的蛋白。结论表明雄性剑尾鱼卵黄蛋白原的诱导变化可作为环境风险评价(ERA)的有效生物学标记。     

捕食风险及其对动物觅食行为的影响

对捕食风险的涵义及其对猎物动物觅食行为的影响、猎物动物面对捕食风险时的反应进行了论述。捕食风险可以简单地理解为一定时间内猎物动物被杀死的概率。当捕食风险存在时 ,动物会选择相对安全但觅食效益较低的地点觅食 ;由于死亡率和消化方面的限制 ,一般都会产生食谱收缩 ;觅食活动方式的时间格局也会因捕食风险而发生改变 ,如水生动物的昼夜垂直迁移、某些陆生动物昼行性与夜行性活动的转换、月光回避等。在与捕食者发生遭遇时 ,猎物动物的主要反应是 :①发出某些信号以阻止捕食者的追捕 ;②靠近并注视捕食者 ;③逃逸 ;④在一定的时间恢复觅食活动。在以往的研究中 ,对捕食者种类已经有了较多的了解 ,而对猎物如何判断捕食者丰富度信息、估计风险程度等方面则知之甚少 ;同时 ,对捕食风险水平的调控、对多种因素的综合分析也较少涉及。在今后的研究中 ,还应该考虑研究的尺度问题 ,因为在不同尺度的环境条件下 ,猎物动物对于捕食风险的反应可能大相径庭。