Sustainable Consumption of Food: A Framework for Analyzing Scenarios about Changes in Diets

This article describes the integration of life-cycle assessment methods with a new input-output model of the world economy to analyze the environmental and economic implications of alternative future diets. The article reviews findings by industrial ecologists about the energy and land required for the production and consumption of alternative foods and diets in several European countries. It also reviews attributes of foods and diets identified by nutritionists as reducing the risks of obesity and major chronic diseases related to the diets of the affluent. The predominantly plant-based Mediterranean-type diet emerges as a dietary scenario that could satisfy both sets of concerns. The likely implications for agriculture and for farm policies of a shift toward this diet from the current average diet in the United States are discussed and shown to be substantial. The one-country studies reviewed in the article provide substantial insights into the potential ramifications of dietary change. Many of the limitations of these studies could be overcome by conducting the analysis in a global framework that represented the relationships among consumption, production, and trade and the physical constraints within which they operate. Analysis of the environmental and economic implications of alternative scenarios describing healthy diets can help stimulate more intensive dialogue, debate, and action among the interested parties; such analysis can both benefit from and contribute to initiatives such as the World Health Organization's global strategy on diet and health, which intends to enlist the support of governments, corporations, and civil society.     

The response of macroinvertebrate production to a pollution gradient in a headwater stream

1. This study quantified patterns of macroinvertebrate secondary production and stored benthic organic matter along a gradient of pollution and habitat channelisation over a 3‐km reach of Goosefare Brook, a first‐order stream in southern Maine (U.S.A.). 2. Whole‐community invertebrate production decreased from 26.4 g ash‐free dry mass (AFDM) m⁻² year⁻¹ at the reference station to 1.1 g AFDM m⁻² year⁻¹ at stations with the greatest levels of pollution. Production decreased along the pollution gradient for most taxa, although decreases were partly offset by production increases in tolerant taxa. Biomass turnover rates (P/B) were less affected by the stresses than was production. 3. Differences in functional characteristics of the community were evident at stations with channelised habitat, but overall production declined in a linear pattern that mirrored the pollution gradient. Stored organic matter showed a decline along the gradient, but was also lower at channelised stations. Populations of taxa with documented pollution tolerance were more likely to maintain or increase production and P/B. 4. Decreasing biomass because of decreasing stored organic matter and lethal effects of pollutants resulted in shifts in the pathways of energy flow observed at stations exposed to moderate physical or chemical stress, to the loss of most taxa and an extreme (96%) decrease in production at the stations receiving the highest levels of metal pollution. 5. The shifting prominence of different taxa along a continuum of stress in Goosefare Brook shows that describing the nature of an impairment in a functional context requires consideration of chemical stressors, habitat alterations and food resources.     

Very-broad-scale assessment of human impacts on river condition

1. Management of whole rivers and river catchments requires a comprehensive set of information about river condition and use, both existing and historical, and the links between them at regional, state or national scales. This paper outlines a new approach to the assessment of river condition, using a small team was able to assess 210 000 km of rivers across more than 3 million km² of Australia in little more than a year. 2. The approach was driven by a hierarchical model of river function, which assumed that broad‐scale catchment characteristics affect local hydrology, habitat features, water quality and, ultimately, aquatic biota. The model provided the basis for selecting important ecologically relevant features that indices should represent. For each reach of each river we derived a biological index and an environmental index based on measures quantifying catchment and hydrological condition, and habitat and water quality condition. Data came from existing state and national databases, satellite images, site measurements and process models. 3. All indices were calculated as deviation from a reference condition, were range‐standardised and were divided into equivalent bands of condition. Amalgamation of index components and of sub‐indices was determined by consideration of their ecological effects; for example, general degradation might be additive, but toxic effects of one component would override all others. 4. Several internal and external validation methods were employed, with the all‐important validation of the final assessments undertaken by comparison with a similar index based on locally measured data. 5. The environmental assessment classified 14% of reaches as largely unmodified, 67% as moderately modified and 19% as substantially modified by human impacts. The biological assessment based on site assessments and modelled data using invertebrates indicated that 70% of reaches were equivalent to reference condition and that 30% were significantly impaired. Catchment disturbance, elevated sediment and nutrient loads, and habitat degradation all contributed to these results. These impacts have all occurred during the last 200 years (post‐European settlement). 6. Partly as a result of the assessments of this study the Australian Government has begun to adopt a more environmentally sustainable approach to broad‐scale water management.     

Geographical distributions in tropical trees: can geographical range predict performance and habitat association in co‐occurring tree species?

Aim A major floristic and climatic transition from aseasonal to seasonal evergreen tropical forest (the Kangar–Pattani Line; KPL) exists in the Indo‐Sundaic region of Southeast Asia. Mechanisms constraining species distribution here are at present poorly understood, but it is hypothesized that species differ in their tolerances of abiotic factors, in particular water availability. Under this hypothesis, we anticipate differences in performance or habitat preferences, or both, of species differing in distribution with respect to the KPL. The aim of this study is to test whether geographical distributions can be used to explain variation in growth, mortality and habitat preferences in co‐occurring tree species differing in their distribution in relation to the KPL. Location Pasoh Forest Reserve, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia; south of the KPL. Methods All tree species within a 50‐ha forest dynamics plot were classified as widespread or southern based upon their distributions in relation to the KPL and as habitat specialists or generalists based on spatial association with soil‐based habitat categories. Growth and mortality rates, variation in growth and mortality with respect to soil type, and levels of habitat association were quantified for species with different geographical distributions. Results Differences existed in species performance based upon geographical distributions. Specifically, widespread species had lower growth rates than did species restricted to the aseasonal forests. Mortality rates did not differ as a function of geographical distribution. The growth responses of species to soil habitats also diverged, such that differences in performance of widespread species among soil types were more conservative than those of species restricted in their distribution to the aseasonal forests. However, the proportion of species showing positive habitat associations did not differ significantly between widespread and southern species. Main conclusions Distribution‐based differences in species performance and response to soil type support the hypothesis that species tolerant of wider climatic variation perform less well in any given environment due to limitations on plasticity. These performance differences provide quantitative evidence of the role of climatic transitions in determining tree species distributions in relation to the Kangar–Pattani Line in the Indo‐Malay region. Such differences in performance have important implications for our understanding of biodiversity gradients and responses of Indo‐Sundaic forests to climate change.     

Expression of Bt cry1Ac in transgenic oilseed rape in China and transgenic performance of intraspecific hybrids against Helicoverpa armigera larvae

The expression of a synthetic Bacillus thuringiensis ( Bt ) cry1Ac gene in oilseed rape (OSR, Brassica napus ) was monitored under field conditions in China, and performance against Helicoverpa armigera larvae was compared in intraspecific hybrids with a Chinese OSR variety. Leaf samples from transgenic OSR were collected at various developmental stages in two separate field experiments. The Bt Cry1Ac concentrations in the third uppermost leaves increased before pod formation stage and either increased or decreased after pod formation stage whereas the total soluble protein increased before and decreased after pod-fill in the later growing season. Spontaneously formed intraspecific hybrids between transgenic OSR and a Chinese conventional OSR were obtained in the field and transgenic status was confirmed by a green fluorescent protein (GFP) phenotype and polymerase chain reaction. A bioassay on the neonate larvae of a susceptible strain of H.   armigera was performed to test the efficacy of Bt Cry1Ac toxin in hybrid OSR plants. Both the original transgenic OSR and hybrid plants had a negative effect on body-weight gain of insect larvae. It was assumed that Bt Cry1Ac toxin concentration was similar in hybrids compared to the original transgenic OSR at the investigated developmental stages. The frequency of hybrid production and volunteerism could potentially enhance the evolution of insect pest tolerance in the field.     

Effect of fish length and nutritional condition on the fecundity of distressed Atlantic cod Gadus morhua from the Baltic Sea

The disappearance of larger individuals and the decrease in individual body condition suffered by Atlantic cod Gadus morhua in the eastern Baltic during the past two decades can be expected to affect the stock reproductive output. To investigate this, female G. morhua were collected during the spawning and pre‐spawning period in 2015?2016. The current individual potential fecundity (F_P) of eastern Baltic G. morhua was estimated and analysed in relation to total length (L_T) and indices of nutritional status such as body condition (K) and hepato‐somatic index (I_H) using generalized linear models. In addition, the current prevalence of atresia and its potential relation to K were investigated. Moreover, a calibration curve to estimate F_P from oocyte diameter, based on the autodiametric oocyte counting method, was established for the first time for eastern Baltic G. morhua and can be used for future fecundity studies on this stock. The results showed that F_P was mainly positively related to fish length, but K and I_H also contributed significantly to the variation in F_P. The model predicted that fish with K = 1·2 have a F_P 51% higher than fish of the same L_T with K = 0·8. The prevalence of fecundity regulation by atresia was 5·8%, but it was found only in fish in the pre‐spawning maturity stage and with low K. Temporal changes in biological features such as the length composition and individual body condition of eastern Baltic G. morhua, should be accounted for when estimating stock reproductive potential.     

Floodplain ecosystem dynamics under extreme dry and wet phases in semi‐arid Australia

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