How to monitor elusive lizards: comparison of capture–recapture methods on giant day geckos (Gekkonidae, Phelsuma madagascariensis grandis) in the Masoala rainforest exhibit, Zurich Zoo

Rapid and reliable estimation of population size is needed for the efficient monitoring of animal populations of conservation concern. Unfortunately, technical advances in this area have not been paralleled in uptake in conservation, which may be due to difficulties in implementation or the lack of general guidelines for application. Here we tested five different methods used to estimate population size [capture–mark–recapture (CMR), finite-mixture models, model averaging of finite-mixture models, accumulation curve methods (ACM), and the line transect method (LT)] using extensive capture–recapture data of the giant day gecko (Gekkonidae, Phelsuma madagascariensis grandis, Gray 1870) at the Masoala rainforest exhibit, Zurich Zoo. When the complete data were analyzed [30 sessions (and 27 sessions for the LT)], all methods except the LT produced similar estimates of population size. The simple ACM gave a small coefficient of variation (CV), but did not cover the most likely value of population size at moderate sampling effort. Nevertheless, the ACM was the only method that showed a reasonable convergence when subsets of data were used. CMR and Pledger models included the reference value in their confidence intervals (CI) after 25 and 30 sessions, respectively. Although model averaging did slightly improve the estimate, the CV was still high for the full dataset. Our method of using subsets of data to test the robustness of estimates is simple to apply and could be adopted more widely in such analyzes to evaluate sensitivity to method of evaluation. In conclusion, simple accumulation methods showed similar efficiency to more complex statistical models, and are likely to be sufficiently precise for most conservation monitoring purposes. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Bayesian variable selection for latent class models

In this article, we develop a latent class model with class probabilities that depend on subject-specific covariates. One of our major goals is to identify important predictors of latent classes. We consider methodology that allows estimation of latent classes while allowing for variable selection uncertainty. We propose a Bayesian variable selection approach and implement a stochastic search Gibbs sampler for posterior computation to obtain model-averaged estimates of quantities of interest such as marginal inclusion probabilities of predictors. Our methods are illustrated through simulation studies and application to data on weight gain during pregnancy, where it is of interest to identify important predictors of latent weight gain classes.     

LOCAL ADAPTATION,PHENOTYPIC DIFFERENTIATION,AND HYBRID FITNESS IN DIVERGED NATURAL POPULATIONS OF ARABIDOPSIS LYRATA

Selection for local adaptation results in genetic differentiation in ecologically important traits. In a perennial, outcrossing model plant Arabidopsis lyrata, several differentiated phenotypic traits contribute to local adaptation, as demonstrated by fitness advantage of the local population at each site in reciprocal transplant experiments. Here we compared fitness components, hierarchical total fitness and differentiation in putatively ecologically important traits of plants from two diverged parental populations from different continents in the native climate conditions of the populations in Norway and in North Carolina (NC, U.S.A.). Survival and number of fruits per inflorescence indicated local advantage at both sites and aster life‐history models provided additional evidence for local adaptation also at the level of hierarchical total fitness. Populations were also differentiated in flowering start date and floral display. We also included reciprocal experimental F₁ and F₂ hybrids to examine the genetic basis of adaptation. Surprisingly, the F₂ hybrids showed heterosis at the study site in Norway, likely because of a combination of beneficial dominance effects from different traits. At the NC site, hybrid fitness was mostly intermediate relative to the parental populations. Local cytoplasmic origin was associated with higher fitness, indicating that cytoplasmic genomes also may contribute to the evolution of local adaptation.     

Arrangement of electron transport chain components in bovine mitochondrial supercomplex I1III2IV1

The respiratory chain in the inner mitochondrial membrane contains three large multi‐enzyme complexes that together establish the proton gradient for ATP synthesis, and assemble into a supercomplex. A 19‐Å 3D map of the 1.7‐MDa amphipol‐solubilized supercomplex I₁III₂IV₁ from bovine heart obtained by single‐particle electron cryo‐microscopy reveals an amphipol belt replacing the membrane lipid bilayer. A precise fit of the X‐ray structures of complex I, the complex III dimer, and monomeric complex IV indicates distances of 13 nm between the ubiquinol‐binding sites of complexes I and III, and of 10–11 nm between the cytochrome c binding sites of complexes III and IV. The arrangement of respiratory chain complexes suggests two possible pathways for efficient electron transfer through the supercomplex, of which the shorter branch through the complex III monomer proximal to complex I may be preferred.     

Local Adaptation and the Effects of Isolation and Population Size – the Semelparous Perennial <Emphasis Type="Italic">Carlina vulgaris</Emphasis> as a Study Case

We made a reciprocal transplantation experiment with Carlina vulgaris, among 12 semi-natural grassland sites situated in southwest Sweden. The fate of seeds and seedlings were followed during 2 years. Local adaptation was investigated both by native superiority over non-natives, and by comparing the observed performance of a population to the fitted value of a reduced statistical model that showed the populations’ performance at all sites and the performance of all other populations at its home site. The latter method indicates presence of local adaptation even when natives are inferior to introduced populations as long as the negative difference in fitness between the populations is smaller at the native population’s home site. The strength of local adaptation was measured as the ratio of the observed to the expected performance in reduced statistical models and regressed on the degree of isolation and population size. We found no evidence of local adaptation in terms of native superiority compared to non-natives, but with the relative method we found one of six fitness components, juvenile survival, to be 6% higher for natives at their home sites compared to how they performed at other sites and how others performed at their site. Further, our results indicate that both isolation and population size have a positive effect on the process of local adaptation. Co-ordinating editor: J. Tuomi     

Predation Preference of Typhlodromus Pyri and Kampimodromus Aberrans (Acari: Phytoseiidae) When Offered Con- and Heterospecific Immature Life Stages

The predation preference of singly caged adult females and nymphs of Typhlodromus pyri and Kampimodromus aberrans for con- or heterospecific immature stages as prey was tested in the laboratory. Both polyphagous predatory mite species have been previously shown to interact directly through predation on each other. The present study demonstrated that the adult females of T. pyri and K. aberrans are able to discriminate between con- and heterospecific larvae and protonymphs and that they prefer to prey upon heterospecifics when given the choice. Hunger did not reduce the propensity of the females to prefer heterospecifics over conspecifics. For proto-and deutonymphs the trends followed the results obtained with the adult females, but the preference for heterospecifics was not distinct enough to be significant. In competitive situations reciprocal predation may be a crucial mechanism in the interaction of polyphagous phytoseiid species and may contribute significantly to population persistence. The results are discussed with regard to possible associations between the ability to discriminate con- and heterospecifics and the type of feeding specialization (generalists versus specialists).     

Ecological factors influencing tetraploid speciation in snow buttercups (Ranunculus Adoneus): niche differentiation and tetraploid establishment

Chromosome doubling plays an important role in generating new species of flowering plants. However, reproductive incompatibilities between newly formed tetraploid plants and their diploid progenitors are expected to create a significant barrier to the persistence and establishment of neopolyploid populations. Ecological differentiation can reduce this barrier via prezygotic isolation arising from spatial separation. Alternatively, superior viability or fecundity of neotetraploid plants might compensate for the reproductive cost of incompatible pollen from diploid neighbors. The performance of plants of both cytotypes can be assessed in their respective habitats through reciprocal transplants, although such experiments have not been used previously in the study of tetraploid speciation. We used a series of seed and seedling transplant experiments to assess ecological differentiation and competitive ability during early establishment phases for tetraploid and diploid forms of the snow buttercup (Ranunculus adoneus). At two sites, seeds from diploids and tetraploids had similar germination probabilities. Tetraploid snow buttercup seedlings had a significant growth advantage in a controlled environment chamber experiment. However, in the field diploid and tetraploid buttercup seedlings did not differ consistently in survival or growth, nor did the two cytotypes show reciprocal advantages in performance, as expected if ecological differentiation has occurred. At the seed and seedling stages, neither niche differentiation nor tetraploid competitive superiority appears sufficient to explain neotetraploid success in the presence of their diploid progenitors.     

Uncertainty Evaluation of a Groundwater Conceptual Model by Using a Multimodel Averaging Method

ABSTRACT

A groundwater field is a complex and open system. Groundwater simulation and prediction often deviated from true values, which is attributed to the uncertainty of groundwater modeling. The conceptual model (model struture) is one of the main sources of groundwater modeling uncertianty. In this study, the mean Euclidean distance (MED) between model simulations and observations is proposed to assess the integrated likelihood value of a conceptual model in Bayesian model averaging (BMA). Moreover, this proposed BMA method is compared with the traditional generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) BMA method by a synthetical groundwater model, and the characteristics of these two BMA methods are summarized.     

Pattern analysis in Belgian limestone grasslands

Pattern analyses were made in several limestone grasslands of Belgium. Vegetation has been sampled in continuous transects. Monospecific patterns are defined by means of two non-parametric indices; multivariate analysis (reciprocal averaging) completed the analysis. The following kinds of pattern are described and explained: random, aggregate, clump, gap, stationary density variation, non-stationary density variation, gradient and many complex patterns. The multivariate analysis leads to a careful phytosociological study of the transects and to the definition of floristically homogeneous regions. Some particular points of pattern analysis, the problem of vegetation sampling and some perspectives are discussed.