Ecological memory at millennial time-scales: the importance of data constraints,species longevity and niche features

Ecological memory describes how antecedent conditions drive the dynamics of an ecological system. Palaeoecological records are paramount to understand ecological memory at millennial time-scales, but the concept is widely neglected in the literature, and a formal approach is lacking. Here, we fill such a gap by introducing a quantitative framework for ecological memory in palaeoecology, and assessing how data constraints and taxa traits shape ecological memory patterns. We simulate the population dynamics and pollen abundance of 16 virtual taxa with different life and niche traits as a response to an environmental driver. The data is processed to mimic a realistic sediment deposition and sampled at increasing depth intervals. We quantify ecological memory with Random Forests, and assess how data properties and taxa traits shape ecological memory. We find that life-span and niche features modulate the relative importance of the antecedent values of the driver and the pollen abundance over periods of 240 yr and longer. Additionally, we find that accumulation rate and decreasing pollen-sampling resolution inflate the importance of antecedent pollen abundance. Our results suggest that: 1) ecological memory patterns are sensitive to varying accumulation rates. A better understanding on the numerical basis of this effect may enable the assimilation of ecological memory concepts and methods in palaeoecology; 2) incorporating niche theory and models is essential to better understand the nature of ecological memory patterns at millennial time-scales. 3) Long-lived generalist taxa are highly decoupled from the environmental signal. This finding has implications on how we interpret the abundance-environment relationship of real taxa with similar traits, and how we use such knowledge to forecast their distribution or reconstruct past climate.     

Cold and hungry: combined effects of low temperature and resource scarcity on an edge-of-range temperate primate,the golden snub-nose monkey

Both biotic and abiotic factors play important roles in influencing ecological distributions and niche limits. Where biotic and abiotic stressors co-occur in space and time, homeostatic systems face a scenario in which stressors can compound to impose a challenge that is greater than the sum of the separate factors. We studied the homeostatic strategies of the golden snub-nosed monkey Rhinopithecus roxellana, a species living in temperate deciduous forests at the edge of the global distribution range for folivorous primates, to cope with the co-occurrence of cold temperatures and resource scarcity during winter. We discovered that in winter the monkeys experience a dietary energy deficit of 101 kJ mbm⁻¹ d⁻¹ compared with calculated needs, despite increased feeding. This is partly offset by behavioral changes (reduced locomotion and increased resting) and reducing skin temperature by an average of 3.2°C through a cutaneous vasoconstriction to decrease heat loss. However, their major strategy is ingesting surplus energy and accumulating fat reserves when food was not limiting during summer and autumn. Their 14% of body mass lost over the winter represented an energy yield of 102 kJ mbm⁻¹ d⁻¹, which closely matched the calculated winter energy deficit of 101 kJ mbm⁻¹ d⁻¹. However, the latter value assumes that all the 75.41 kJ mbm⁻¹ d⁻¹ of protein ingested in winter was available for energy metabolism. This is almost certainly an over-estimate, suggesting that the study population was in negative energy balance over the study period. Our study therefore suggests that despite its suit of integrated homeostatic responses, the confluence of low temperatures and resource limitation during winter places this edge-of-range primate close the threshold of what is energetically viable. It also provides a framework for quantitative models predicting the vulnerability of temperate primates to global change.     

西双版纳国家级自然保护区蚂蚁-树互作网络空间变异

网络分析(network analysis)可以同时分析群落中的物种多样性和种间关系, 为了解生态群落的稳定性机制提供了新的分析思路和方法。本研究从西双版纳国家级自然保护区的纳板河、勐仑和勐腊(补蚌)三个地点采集了树栖性蚂蚁及树木的种类和数量数据, 对蚂蚁-树组成的二分网络进行了分析, 探讨了3个采样点物种的多样性、网络指标以及群落指标之间的关系。我们采用零模型的方法比较了3个样点的标准化网络参数差异。结果表明: 蚂蚁和树木的物种数以及树的异质性指数(Shannon-Wiener多样性指数、Simpson多样性指数)都呈现出勐仑 > 纳板河 > 补蚌的趋势。树木-蚂蚁的灭绝曲线系数大小关系同样为勐仑 > 纳板河 > 补蚌, 灭绝曲线与树的物种数及异质性指数大小趋势一致, 而与蚂蚁的异质性指数并不吻合。根据Z值的绝对值来看, 网络参数(加权嵌套性、平均连接数、特化水平、模块性、连接度)与群落参数(灭绝曲线系数、生态位重叠)的大小趋势相同, 表现出勐仑 > 纳板河 > 补蚌的趋势。综上所述, 蚂蚁-树互作网络的稳定性(灭绝曲线系数)主要由树的数量和异质性指数决定。网络的加权嵌套性和网络中节点的平均连接数也能促进群落的稳定性。而在一个特化的(数值越大表示专性互作越多)和模块化(具有较多密切互作的节点单元)的网络中, 当低营养级物种灭绝时高营养级物种数量将迅速减少。     

Spatial sampling bias and model complexity in stream‐based species distribution models: A case study of Paddlefish (Polyodon spathula) in the Arkansas River basin,USA

Leveraging existing presence records and geospatial datasets, species distribution modeling has been widely applied to informing species conservation and restoration efforts. Maxent is one of the most popular modeling algorithms, yet recent research has demonstrated Maxent models are vulnerable to prediction errors related to spatial sampling bias and model complexity. Despite elevated rates of biodiversity imperilment in stream ecosystems, the application of Maxent models to stream networks has lagged, as has the availability of tools to address potential sources of error and calculate model evaluation metrics when modeling in nonraster environments (such as stream networks). Herein, we use Maxent and customized R code to estimate the potential distribution of paddlefish (Polyodon spathula) at a stream‐segment level within the Arkansas River basin, USA, while accounting for potential spatial sampling bias and model complexity. Filtering the presence data appeared to adequately remove an eastward, large‐river sampling bias that was evident within the unfiltered presence dataset. In particular, our novel riverscape filter provided a repeatable means of obtaining a relatively even coverage of presence data among watersheds and streams of varying sizes. The greatest differences in estimated distributions were observed among models constructed with default versus AIC_C‐selected parameterization. Although all models had similarly high performance and evaluation metrics, the AIC_C‐selected models were more inclusive of westward‐situated and smaller, headwater streams. Overall, our results solidified the importance of accounting for model complexity and spatial sampling bias in SDMs constructed within stream networks and provided a roadmap for future paddlefish restoration efforts in the study area.     

Metapopulation dynamics and foraging plasticity in a highly vagile seabird,the southern rockhopper penguin

Population connectivity is driven by individual dispersal potential and modulated by natal philopatry. In seabirds, high vagility facilitates dispersal yet philopatry is also common, with foraging area overlap often correlated with population connectivity. We assess the interplay between these processes by studying past and current connectivity and foraging niche overlap among southern rockhopper penguin colonies of the coast of southern South America using genomic and stable isotope analyses. We found two distinct genetic clusters and detected low admixture between northern and southern colonies. Stable isotope analysis indicated niche variability between colonies, with Malvinas/Falklands colonies encompassing the species entire isotopic foraging niche, while the remaining colonies had smaller, nonoverlapping niches. A recently founded colony in continental Patagonia differed in isotopic niche width and position with Malvinas/Falklands colonies, its genetically identified founder population, suggesting the exploitation of novel foraging areas and/or prey items. Additionally, dispersing individuals found dead across the Patagonian shore in an unusual mortality event were also assigned to the northern cluster, suggesting northern individuals reach southern localities, but do not breed in these colonies. Facilitated by variability in foraging strategies, and especially during unfavorable conditions, the number of dispersing individuals may increase and enhance the probability of founding new colonies. Metapopulation demographic dynamics in seabirds should account for interannual variability in dispersal behavior and pay special attention to extreme climatic events, classically related to negative effects on population trends.     

Scale‐dependent effects of neighborhood biodiversity on individual tree productivity in a coniferous and broad‐leaved mixed forest in China

The relationship between biodiversity and productivity has stimulated an increasing body of research over the past decades, and this topic still occupies a central place in ecology. While most studies have focused on biomass production in quadrats or plots, few have investigated the scale‐dependent relationship from an individual plant perspective. We present an analysis of the effects of biodiversity (species diversity and functional diversity) on individual tree growth with a data set of 16,060 growth records from a 30‐ha temperate forest plot using spatially explicit individual tree‐based methods. A significant relationship between species diversity and tree growth was found at the individual tree level in our study. The magnitude and direction of biodiversity effects varies with the spatial scale. We found positive effects of species diversity on tree growth at scales exceeding 9 m. Individual tree growth rates increased when there was a greater diversity of species in the neighborhood of the focal tree, which provides evidence of a niche complementarity effect. At small scales (3–5 m), species diversity had negative effects on tree growth, suggesting that competition is more prevalent than complementarity or facilitation in these close neighborhoods. The results also revealed many confounding factors which influence tree growth, such as elevation and available sun light. We conclude that the use of individual tree‐based methods may lead to a better understanding of the biodiversity‐productivity relationship in forest communities.     

Trophic level and basal resource use of soil animals are hardly affected by local plant associations in abandoned arable land

Plants provide resources and shape the habitat of soil organisms thereby affecting the composition and functioning of soil communities. Effects of plants on soil communities are largely taxon‐dependent, but how different functional groups of herbaceous plants affect trophic niches of individual animal species in soil needs further investigation. Here, we studied the use of basal resources and trophic levels of dominating soil meso‐ and macrofauna using stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen in arable fallow systems 3 and 14–16 years after abandonment. Animals were sampled from the rhizosphere of three plant species of different functional groups: a legume (Medicaco sativa), a nonlegume herb (Taraxacum officinale), and a grass (Bromus sterilis). We found virtually no consistent effects of plant identity on stable isotope composition of soil animals and on thirteen isotopic metrics that reflect general food‐web structure. However, in old fallows, the carbon isotope composition of some predatory macrofauna taxa had shifted closer to that of co‐occurring plants, which was particularly evident for Lasius, an aphid‐associated ant genus. Trophic levels and trophic‐chain lengths in food webs were similar across plant species and fallow ages. Overall, the results suggest that variations in local plant diversity of grassland communities may little affect the basal resources and the trophic level of prey consumed by individual species of meso‐ and macrofauna belowground. By contrast, successional changes in grassland communities are associated with shifts in the trophic niches of certain species, reflecting establishment of trophic interactions with time, which shapes the functioning and stability of soil food webs.     

Shifts in potential geographical distribution of Pterocarya stenoptera under climate change scenarios in China

Climate change poses a serious threat to biodiversity. Predicting the effects of climate change on the distribution of a species' habitat can help humans address the potential threats which may change the scope and distribution of species. Pterocarya stenoptera is a common fast‐growing tree species often used in the ecological restoration of riverbanks and alpine forests in central and eastern China. Until now, the characteristics of the distribution of this species' habitat are poorly known as are the environmental factors that influence its preferred habitat. In the present study, the Maximum Entropy Modeling (Maxent) algorithm and the Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production (GARP) were used to establish the models for the potential distribution of this species by selecting 236 sites with known occurrences and 14 environmental variables. The results indicate that both models have good predictive power. Minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6), mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10), annual precipitation (Bio12), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14) were important environmental variables influencing the prediction of the Maxent model. According to the models, the temperate and subtropical regions of eastern China had high environmental suitability for this species, where the species had been recorded. Under each climate change scenario, climatic suitability of the existing range of this species increased, and its climatic niche expanded geographically to the north and higher elevation. GARP predicted a more conservative expansion. The projected spatial and temporal patterns of P. stenoptera can provide reference for the development of forest management and protection strategies.     

Age‐related variation in the trophic characteristics of a marsupial carnivore,the Tasmanian devil Sarcophilus harrisii

Age‐related changes in diet have implications for competitive interactions and for predator–prey dynamics, affecting individuals and groups at different life stages. To quantify patterns of variation and ontogenetic change in the diets of Tasmanian devils Sarcophilus harrisii, a threatened marsupial carnivore, we analyzed variation in the stable isotope composition of whisker tissue samples taken from 91 individual devils from Wilmot, Tasmania from December 2014 to February 2017. Both δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N decreased with increasing age in weaned Tasmanian devils, indicating that as they age devils rely less on small mammals and birds, and more on large herbivores. Devils <12 months old had broader group isotopic niches, as estimated by Bayesian standard ellipses (SEA_B mode = 1.042) than devils from 12 to 23 months old (mode = 0.541) and devils ≥24 months old (mode = 0.532). Devils <24 months old had broader individual isotopic niches (SEA_B mode range 0.492–1.083) than devils ≥24 months old (mode range 0.092–0.240). A decrease in δ¹⁵N from the older whisker sections to the more recently grown sections in devils <24 months old likely reflects the period of weaning in this species, as this pattern was not observed in devils ≥24 months old. Our data reveal changes in the isotopic composition of devil whiskers with increasing age, accompanied by a reduction in isotopic variation both among population age classes and within individuals, reflecting the effect of weaning in early life, and a likely shift from an initially diverse diet of small mammals, birds, and invertebrates towards increasing consumption of larger herbivores in adulthood.     

Acknowledging uncertainty in evolutionary reconstructions of ecological niches

Reconstructing ecological niche evolution can provide insight into the biogeography and diversification of evolving lineages. However, comparative phylogenetic methods may infer the history of ecological niche evolution inaccurately because (a) species' niches are often poorly characterized; and (b) phylogenetic comparative methods rely on niche summary statistics rather than full estimates of species' environmental tolerances. Here, we propose a new framework for coding ecological niches and reconstructing their evolution that explicitly acknowledges and incorporates the uncertainty introduced by incomplete niche characterization. Then, we modify existing ancestral state inference methods to leverage full estimates of environmental tolerances. We provide a worked empirical example of our method, investigating ecological niche evolution in the New World orioles (Aves: Passeriformes: Icterus spp.). Temperature and precipitation tolerances were generally broad and conserved among orioles, with niche reduction and specialization limited to a few terminal branches. Tools for performing these reconstructions are available in a new R package called nichevol.