A process‐based metacommunity framework linking local and regional scale community ecology

The metacommunity concept has the potential to integrate local and regional dynamics within a general community ecology framework. To this end, the concept must move beyond the discrete archetypes that have largely defined it (e.g. neutral vs. species sorting) and better incorporate local scale species interactions and coexistence mechanisms. Here, we present a fundamental reconception of the framework that explicitly links local coexistence theory to the spatial processes inherent to metacommunity theory, allowing for a continuous range of competitive community dynamics. These dynamics emerge from the three underlying processes that shape ecological communities: (1) density‐independent responses to abiotic conditions, (2) density‐dependent biotic interactions and (3) dispersal. Stochasticity is incorporated in the demographic realisation of each of these processes. We formalise this framework using a simulation model that explores a wide range of competitive metacommunity dynamics by varying the strength of the underlying processes. Using this model and framework, we show how existing theories, including the traditional metacommunity archetypes, are linked by this common set of processes. We then use the model to generate new hypotheses about how the three processes combine to interactively shape diversity, functioning and stability within metacommunities.     

The skull evolution of oviraptorosaurian dinosaurs: the role of niche partitioning in diversification

Oviraptorosaurs are bird‐like theropod dinosaurs that thrived in the final pre‐extinction ecosystems during the latest Cretaceous, and the beaked, toothless skulls of derived species are regarded as some of the most peculiar among dinosaurs. Their aberrant morphologies are hypothesized to have been caused by rapid evolution triggered by an ecological/biological driver, but little is known about how their skull shapes and functional abilities diversified. Here, we use quantitative techniques to study oviraptorosaur skull form and mandibular function. We demonstrate that the snout is particularly variable, that mandibular form and upper/lower beak form are significantly correlated with phylogeny, and that there is a strong and significant correlation between mandibular function and mandible/lower beak shape, suggesting a form–function association. The form–function relationship and phylogenetic signals, along with a moderate allometric signal in lower beak form, indicate that similar mechanisms governed beak shape in oviraptorosaurs and extant birds. The two derived oviraptorosaur clades, oviraptorids and caenagnathids, are significantly separated in morphospace and functional space, indicating that they partitioned niches. Oviraptorids coexisting in the same ecosystem are also widely spread in morphological and functional space, suggesting that they finely partitioned feeding niches, whereas caenagnathids exhibit extreme disparity in beak size. The diversity of skull form and function was likely key to the diversification and evolutionary success of oviraptorosaurs in the latest Cretaceous.     

Benthic ecoregionalization based on echinoid fauna of the Southern Ocean supports current proposals of Antarctic Marine Protected Areas under IPCC scenarios of climate change

The Southern Ocean (SO) is among the regions on Earth that are undergoing regionally the fastest environmental changes. The unique ecological features of its marine life make it particularly vulnerable to the multiple effects of climate change. A network of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) has started to be implemented in the SO to protect marine ecosystems. However, considering future predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the relevance of current, static, MPAs may be questioned under future scenarios. In this context, the ecoregionalization approach can prove promising in identifying well‐delimited regions of common species composition and environmental settings. These so‐called ecoregions are expected to show similar biotic responses to environmental changes and can be used to define priority areas for the designation of new MPAs and the update of their current delimitation. In the present work, a benthic ecoregionalization of the entire SO is proposed for the first time based on abiotic environmental parameters and the distribution of echinoid fauna, a diversified and common member of Antarctic benthic ecosystems. A novel two‐step approach was developed combining species distribution modeling with Random Forest and Gaussian Mixture modeling from species probabilities to define current ecoregions and predict future ecoregions under IPCC scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The ecological representativity of current and proposed MPAs of the SO is discussed with regard to the modeled benthic ecoregions. In all, 12 benthic ecoregions were determined under present conditions, they are representative of major biogeographic patterns already described. Our results show that the most dramatic changes can be expected along the Antarctic Peninsula, in East Antarctica and the sub‐Antarctic islands under both IPCC scenarios. Our results advocate for a dynamic definition of MPAs, they also argue for improving the representativity of Antarctic ecoregions in proposed MPAs and support current proposals of Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources for the creation of Antarctic MPAs.     

Range edges in heterogeneous landscapes: Integrating geographic scale and climate complexity into range dynamics

The impacts of climate change have re‐energized interest in understanding the role of climate in setting species geographic range edges. Despite the strong focus on species' distributions in ecology and evolution, defining a species range edge is theoretically and empirically difficult. The challenge of determining a range edge and its relationship to climate is in part driven by the nested nature of geography and the multidimensionality of climate, which together generate complex patterns of both climate and biotic distributions across landscapes. Because range‐limiting processes occur in both geographic and climate space, the relationship between these two spaces plays a critical role in setting range limits. With both conceptual and empirical support, we argue that three factors—climate heterogeneity, collinearity among climate variables, and spatial scale—interact to shape the spatial structure of range edges along climate gradients, and we discuss several ways that these factors influence the stability of species range edges with a changing climate. We demonstrate that geographic and climate edges are often not concordant across species ranges. Furthermore, high climate heterogeneity and low climate collinearity across landscapes increase the spectrum of possible relationships between geographic and climatic space, suggesting that geographic range edges and climatic niche limits correspond less frequently than we may expect. More empirical explorations of how the complexity of real landscapes shapes the ecological and evolutionary processes that determine species range edges will advance the development of range limit theory and its applications to biodiversity conservation in the context of changing climate.     

Heterogeneity–diversity relationships in sessile organisms: a unified framework

The hypothesis that environmental heterogeneity promotes species richness by increasing opportunities for niche partitioning is a fundamental paradigm in ecology. However, recent studies suggest that heterogeneity–diversity relationships (HDR) are more complex than expected from this niche‐based perspective, and often show a decrease in richness at high levels of heterogeneity. These findings have motivated ecologists to propose new mechanisms that may explain such deviations. Here we provide an overview of currently recognised mechanisms affecting the shape of HDRs and present a conceptual model that integrates all previously proposed mechanisms within a unified framework. We also translate the proposed framework into an explicit community dynamic model and use the model as a tool for generating testable predictions concerning how landscape properties interact with species traits in determining the shape of HDRs. Our main finding is that, despite the enormous complexity of such interactions, the predicted HDRs are rather simple, ranging from positive to unimodal patterns in a highly consistent and predictable manner.     

Resource diversity promotes among‐individual diet variation,but not genomic diversity,in lake stickleback

Many generalist species consist of specialised individuals that use different resources. This within‐population niche variation can stabilise population and community dynamics. Consequently, ecologists wish to identify environmental settings that promote such variation. Theory predicts that environments with greater resource diversity favour ecological diversity among consumers (via disruptive selection or plasticity). Alternatively, niche variation might be a side‐effect of neutral genomic diversity in larger populations. We tested these alternatives in a metapopulation of threespine stickleback. Stickleback consume benthic and limnetic invertebrates, focusing on the former in small lakes, the latter in large lakes. Intermediate‐sized lakes support generalist stickleback populations using an even mixture of the two prey types, and exhibit greater among‐individual variation in diet and morphology. In contrast, genomic diversity increases with lake size. Thus, phenotypic diversity and neutral genetic polymorphism are decoupled: trophic diversity being greatest in intermediate‐sized lakes with high resource diversity, whereas neutral genetic diversity is greatest in the largest lakes.     

Assessing influence in biofuel production and ecosystem services when environmental changes affect plant–pest relationships

Climate change is currently affecting both biodiversity and human activities; land use change and greenhouse gas emissions are the main drivers. Many agricultural services are affected by the change, which in turn reflects on the basic provisioning services, which supply food, fibre and biofuels. Biofuels are getting increasing interest because of their sustainability potential. Jatropha curcas gained popularity as a biodiesel crop, due to its ease of cultivation even in harsh environmental conditions. Notwithstanding its high economic importance, few studies are available about its co‐occurrence with pests of the genus Aphthona in sub‐Saharan Africa, where these insects feed on J. curcas, leading to relevant economic losses. Using ecological niche modelling and GIS post‐modelling analyses, we infer the current and future suitable territories for both these taxa, delineating areas where J. curcas cultivations may occur without suffering the presence of Aphthona, in the context of future climate and land use changing. We introduce an area‐normalized index, the ‘Potential‐Actual Cultivation Index’, to better depict the ratio between the suitable areas shared both by the crop and its pest, and the number of actual cultivations, in a target country. Moreover, we find high economic losses (~?50%) both in terms of carbon sequestration and in biodiesel production when J. curcas co‐occur with the Aphthona cookei species group.     

Vanishing islands in the sky? A comparison of correlation- and mechanism-based forecasts of range dynamics for montane salamanders under climate change

Forecasting the effects of climate change on species and populations is a fundamental goal of conservation biology, especially for montane endemics which seemingly are under the greatest threat of extinction given their association with cool, high elevation habitats. Species distribution models (also known as niche models) predict where on the landscape there is suitable habitat for a species of interest. Correlative niche modeling, the most commonly employed approach to predict species' distributions, relies on correlations between species' localities and current environmental data. This type of model could spuriously forecast less future suitable habitat because species' current distributions may not adequately represent their thermal tolerance, and future climate conditions may not be analogous to current conditions. We compared the predicted distributions for three montane species of Plethodon salamanders in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North America using a correlative modeling approach and a mechanistic model. The mechanistic model incorporates species-specific physiology, morphology and behavior to predict an annual energy budget on the landscape. Both modeling approaches performed well at predicting the species' current distributions and predicted that all species could persist in habitats at higher elevation through 2085. The mechanistic model predicted more future suitable habitat than the correlative model. We attribute these differences to the mechanistic approach being able to model shifts in key range-limiting biological processes (changes in surface activity time and energy costs) that the correlative approach cannot. Choice of global circulation model (GCM) contributed significantly to distribution predictions, with a tenfold difference in future suitability based on GCM, indicating that GCM variability should be either directly included in models of species distributions or, indirectly, through the use of multi-model ensemble averages. Our results indicate that correlative models are over-predicting habitat loss for montane species, suggesting a critical need to incorporate mechanisms into forecasts of species' range dynamics.