Interspecific synchrony of seabird population growth rate and breeding success

Environmental variability can destabilize communities by causing correlated interspecific fluctuations that weaken the portfolio effect, yet evidence of such a mechanism is rare in natural systems. Here, we ask whether the population dynamics of similar sympatric species of a seabird breeding community are synchronized, and if these species have similar exceptional responses to environmental variation. We used a 24‐year time series of the breeding success and population growth rate of a marine top predator species group to assess the degree of synchrony between species demography. We then developed a novel method to examine the species group – all species combined – response to environmental variability, in particular, whether multiple species experience similar, pronounced fluctuations in their demography. Multiple species were positively correlated in breeding success and growth rate. Evidence of “exceptional” years was found, where the species group experienced pronounced fluctuations in their demography. The synchronous response of the species group was negatively correlated with winter sea surface temperature of the preceding year for both growth rate and breeding success. We present evidence for synchronous, exceptional responses of a species group that are driven by environmental variation. Such species covariation destabilizes communities by reducing the portfolio effect, and such exceptional responses may increase the risk of a state change in this community. Our understanding of the future responses to environmental change requires an increased focus on the short‐term fluctuations in demography that are driven by extreme environmental variability.     

Genomic architecture of autism from comprehensive whole-genome sequence annotation

1. Download : Download high-res image (172KB)
2. Download : Download full-size image

     

Validation of discrete time-to-event prediction models in the presence of competing risks

Clinical prediction models play a key role in risk stratification, therapy assignment and many other fields of medical decision making. Before they can enter clinical practice, their usefulness has to be demonstrated using systematic validation. Methods to assess their predictive performance have been proposed for continuous, binary, and time-to-event outcomes, but the literature on validation methods for discrete time-to-event models with competing risks is sparse. The present paper tries to fill this gap and proposes new methodology to quantify discrimination, calibration, and prediction error (PE) for discrete time-to-event outcomes in the presence of competing risks. In our case study, the goal was to predict the risk of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) attributed to Pseudomonas aeruginosa in intensive care units (ICUs). Competing events are extubation, death, and VAP due to other bacteria. The aim of this application is to validate complex prediction models developed in previous work on more recently available validation data.     

不同质子泵抑制剂对冠脉支架植入术后氯吡格雷联合阿司匹林抗血小板作用的研究

目的:通过比较奥美拉唑和泮托拉唑对冠状动脉支架术(PCI)后患者血小板功能指标和主要不良心血管事件与出血并发症发生情况,探讨不同质子泵抑制剂对PCI后氯吡格雷联合阿司匹林抗血小板作用的影响。方法:60例实施PCI后常规联合抗血小板治疗(氯吡格雷75mg/d+阿司匹林100mg/d)患者随机分为奥美拉唑组(40mg/d,20例),泮托拉唑组(40mg/d,20例)和对照组(20例),连续用药30d。分别在服药前1d及服药15d,30d用血栓弹力图检测ADP途径诱导的血小板抑制率值和比浊法检测ADP途径诱导的血小板最大聚集率(MPAR)。并观察30d各组主要不良心血管事件和出血并发症的发生情况。结果:①奥美拉唑组和泮托拉唑组与对照组相比,服药前1d及服药15d,30d用血栓弹力图检测的血小板抑制率和比浊法检测的血小板最大聚集率(MPAR)均无明显变化;奥美拉唑与泮托拉唑组间比较,差异也无统计学意义。服药15d,30d与服药前1d相比,每组血小板抑制率明显升高,血小板最大聚集率明显下降,差异有统计学意义(P0.05);但15d和30d相比较,差异无统计学意义。②三组比较心血管事件发生率相近,差异无统计学意义(P0.05);奥美拉唑组和泮托拉唑组比较,心血管事件发生率也无统计学差异(P0.05)。③与对照组比较,奥美拉唑组和泮托拉唑组胃肠道出血发生率均明显减少,有统计学意义(P0.05),但两服药组间比较,出血发生率无明显区别,差异无统计学意义(P0.05)。结论:氯吡格雷联合阿司匹林具有增强血小板抑制,降低血小板凝聚的作用,而不同机制质子泵抑制剂奥美拉唑与泮托拉唑对PCI术后氯吡格雷联合阿司匹林抗血小板治疗患者的血小板功能无明显影响,不降低对心血管事件的预防效果,同时明显降低患者胃肠出血事件的发生率。     

一株可同时降解多种高环PAHs的丝状真菌——宛氏拟青霉(Paecilomyces variotii)

采用液体培养的方法,分离纯化了丝状真菌宛氏拟青霉(Paecilomyces variotii)并研究了其对苯并[a]蒽、苯并[a]芘、苯并[b]荧蒽、苯并[k]荧蒽、茚并[1,2,3-cd]芘的降解效果.结果表明:接种处理30 d,该菌株对混合体系中5种PAHs的降解率为16.1%～24.6%,而对单一体系中的降解率为10.4%～33.3%;同时,对单一与混合体系中PAHs的降解作用存在一定差异,苯并[k]荧蒽和苯并[b]荧蒽在单一体系中降解率增大,而其他种类的则减小.本研究结果为高环多环芳烃共代谢机理研究和多环芳烃复合污染水土环境的生物修复提供了一种新的种质资源.     

Integrated biostratigraphy based on planktonic foraminifera and dinoflagellates across the Cretaceous/Paleogene (K/Pg) transition at the Izeh section (SW Iran)

The present work is based on semi-quantitative study carried on detailed sampling (samples are spaced by 5, 10 and 15 cm close to the boundary) of an essentially continuous and expanded section crossing the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K/Pg) boundary in Iran. By this work, we attempt to detail biostratigraphy based on planktonic foraminifera biozones and correlate biozones and subzones with dinocyst events. The entire Cretaceous–Paleogene interval contains rich, diversified and well-preserved planktonic foraminifera and dinoflagellate cyst assemblages. Four planktonic foraminiferal biozones have been recognized across the Cretaceous–Paleogene transition (K/Pg): Abathomphalus mayaroensis Biozone including Plummerita hantkeninoides Subzone from the Late Maastrichtian and Guembelitria cretacea (including Hedbergella holmdelensis and Parvularugoglobigerina longiapertura subzones), Parvularugoglobigerina eugubina Biozone and Parasubbotina pseudobulloides Biozone belonging to the Early Danian. These biozones have been correlated with four dinocyst biozones: the Manumiella seelandica Biozone belonging to the Late Maastrichtian and the Alisocysta reticulata, Senoniasphaera inornata and Damassadinium californicum biozones from the Early Danian. At this section, like at the El Kef section (GSSP for the K/Pg) and the auxiliary sections, an Ir anomaly is detected indicating the K/Pg boundary. This geochemical anomaly coincides also with mass extinctions of planktonic foraminifera species. The extinct species are in particular the large, complex tropical and subtropical taxa dwelling in subsurface and lower photic water. The mass extinctions at the Izeh section occurred over a succinct period of time similar to the K/Pg type section at El Kef (Tunisia). These sudden mass extinctions indicate a catastrophic pattern event occurring at the Maastrichtian/Danian boundary. In contrast the organic-walled dinocysts were less affected by the mass extinction and most species crossed the K/Pg boundary without showing mass and sudden extinctions. Nevertheless, they showed changes in their assemblages’ structure beyond the K/Pg boundary. Especially, Manumiella seelandica and M. druggii, typical species of Antarctic Maastrichtian dinocysts assemblages, occur in coeval deposits at the Izeh section; they persist through the Lower Danian and, like in Tunisia (e.g., El Kef section, Ellès section) show an obvious increase in relative abundance.     

横断山区的蝶类资源与珍稀蝴蝶的保护

横断山区的蝶类561种,隶属于12科,208属.在12科中,种类最多的是蛱蝶科148种,其次是眼蝶科117种,灰蝶科65种,凤蝶科63种,粉蝶科60种,弄蝶科60种,蚬蝶科18种,绢蝶科12种,斑蝶科9种,环蝶科6种,喙蝶科2种,珍蝶科1种.分布于横断山区的珍稀蝴蝶有44种,其中国家Ⅰ级保护的1种,Ⅱ级保护的3种.