Predicting the success of an invader: Niche shift versus niche conservatism

Invasive species can encounter environments different from their source populations, which may trigger rapid adaptive changes after introduction (niche shift hypothesis). To test this hypothesis, we investigated whether postintroduction evolution is correlated with contrasting environmental conditions between the European invasive and source ranges in the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus. The comparison of environmental niches occupied in European and source population ranges revealed more than 96% overlap between invasive and source niches, supporting niche conservatism. However, we found evidence for postintroduction genetic evolution by reanalyzing a published ddRADseq genomic dataset from 90 European invasive populations using genotype–environment association (GEA) methods and generalized dissimilarity modeling (GDM). Three loci, among which a putative heat‐shock protein, exhibited significant allelic turnover along the gradient of winter precipitation that could be associated with ongoing range expansion. Wing morphometric traits weakly correlated with environmental gradients within Europe, but wing size differed between invasive and source populations located in different climatic areas. Niche similarities between source and invasive ranges might have facilitated the establishment of populations. Nonetheless, we found evidence for environmental‐induced adaptive changes after introduction. The ability to rapidly evolve observed in invasive populations (genetic shift) together with a large proportion of unfilled potential suitable areas (80%) pave the way to further spread of Ae. albopictus in Europe.     

DeviaTE: Assembly‐free analysis and visualization of mobile genetic element composition

Transposable elements (TEs) are selfish DNA sequences that multiply within host genomes. They are present in most species investigated so far at varying degrees of abundance and sequence diversity. The TE composition may not only vary between but also within species and could have important biological implications. Variation in prevalence among populations may for example indicate a recent TE invasion, whereas sequence variation could indicate the presence of hyperactive or inactive forms. Gaining unbiased estimates of TE composition is thus vital for understanding the evolutionary dynamics of transposons. To this end, we developed DeviaTE, a tool to analyse and visualize TE abundance using Illumina or Sanger sequencing reads. Our tool requires sequencing reads of one or more samples (tissue, individual or population) and consensus sequences of TEs. It generates a table and a visual representation of TE composition. This allows for an intuitive assessment of coverage, sequence divergence, segregating SNPs and indels, as well as the presence of internal and terminal deletions. By contrasting the coverage between TEs and single copy genes, DeviaTE derives unbiased estimates of TE abundance. We show that naive approaches, which do not consider regions spanned by internal deletions, may substantially underestimate TE abundance. Using published data we demonstrate that DeviaTE can be used to study the TE composition within samples, identify clinal variation in TEs, compare TE diversity among species, and monitor TE invasions. Finally we present careful validations with publicly available and simulated data. DeviaTE is implemented in Python and distributed under the GPLv3 ( https://github.com/W-L/deviaTE ).     

Genetic diversity and molecular fingerprinting of Prunus cerasus var. austera from central Italy

In central Italy, Prunus cerasus var. austera is cultivated as small stands or scattered trees in marginal areas for the production of jam and wine. Thanks to the healthy attributes of its products and its ability to grow in different environmental conditions, this variety has gained new interest in the development of marginal areas. We assessed the level of the genetic variability of P. cerasus var. austera germplasm from central Italy and identified a ‘core collection’ representative of the present genetic diversity. A total of 161 trees, morphologically identified as var. austera, and one tree, identified as var. caproniana were collected and genotyped by 14 SSRs. Two individuals provided by a commercial plant nursery, one of P. cerasus var. caproniana and one of P. cerasus var. austera, were used as control. Thirteen SSRs presented private alleles in austera. Seven individuals morphologically identified as austera revealed private alleles specific to caproniana. The PCoA and Bayesian clustering analysis showed a main genetic group including var. austera, while a second group included all the caproniana-like genotypes. A core collection of 31 trees (46% of austera genotypes) was selected. This study can be considered as a starting point for future investigations on this variety.     

Predicting species distributions from herbarium collections: does climate bias in collection sampling influence model outcomes?

Aim Species distribution models and geographical information system (GIS) technologies are becoming increasingly important tools in conservation planning and decision‐making. Often the rich data bases of museums and herbaria serve as the primary data for predicting species distributions. Yet key assumptions about the primary data often are untested, and violation of such assumptions may have consequences for model predictions. For example, users of primary data assume that sampling has been random with respect to geography and environmental gradients. Here we evaluate the assumption that plant voucher specimens adequately sample the climatic gradient and test whether violation of this assumption influences model predictions. Location Bolivia and Ecuador. Methods Using 323,711 georeferenced herbarium collections and nine climatic variables, we predicted the distribution of 76 plant species using maximum entropy models (MAXENT) with training points that sampled the climate environments randomly and training points that reflected the climate bias in the herbarium collections. To estimate the distribution of species, MAXENT finds the distribution of maximum entropy (i.e. closest to uniform) subject to the constraint that the expected value for each environmental variable under the estimated distribution matches its empirical average. The experimental design included species that differed in geographical range and elevation; all species were modelled with 20 and 100 training points. We examined the influence of the number of training points and climate bias in training points, elevation and range size on model performance using analysis of variance models. Results We found that significant parts of the climatic gradient were poorly represented in herbarium collections for both countries. For the most part, existing climatic bias in collections did not greatly affect distribution predictions when compared with an unbiased data set. Although the effects of climate bias on prediction accuracy were found to be greater where geographical ranges were characterized by high spatial variation in the degree of climate bias (i.e. ranges where the bias of the various climates sampled by collections deviated considerably from the mean bias), the greatest influence on model performance was the number of presence points used to train the model. Main conclusions These results demonstrate that predictions of species distributions can be quite good despite existing climatic biases in primary data found in natural history collections, if a sufficiently large number of training points is available. Because of consistent overprediction of models, these results also confirm the importance of validating models with independent data or expert opinion. Failure to include independent model validation, especially in cases where training points are limited, may potentially lead to grave errors in conservation decision‐making and planning.