Cox proportional hazards models with left truncation and time‐varying coefficient: Application of age at event as outcome in cohort studies

When analyzing time‐to‐event cohort data, two different ways of choosing a time scale have been discussed in the literature: time‐on‐study or age at onset of disease. One advantage of choosing the latter is interpretability of the hazard ratio as a function of age. To handle the analysis of age at onset in a principled manner, we present an analysis of the Cox Proportional Hazards model with time‐varying coefficient for left‐truncated and right‐censored data. In the analysis of Northern Manhattan Study (NOMAS) with age at onset of stroke as outcome, we demonstrate that well‐established risk factors may be important only around a certain age span and less established risk factors can have a strong effect in a certain age span.     

Time‐to‐event continual reassessment method incorporating treatment cycle information with application to an oncology phase I trial

Delayed dose limiting toxicities (i.e. beyond first cycle of treatment) is a challenge for phase I trials. The time‐to‐event continual reassessment method (TITE‐CRM) is a Bayesian dose‐finding design to address the issue of long observation time and early patient drop‐out. It uses a weighted binomial likelihood with weights assigned to observations by the unknown time‐to‐toxicity distribution, and is open to accrual continually. To avoid dosing at overly toxic levels while retaining accuracy and efficiency for DLT evaluation that involves multiple cycles, we propose an adaptive weight function by incorporating cyclical data of the experimental treatment with parameters updated continually. This provides a reasonable estimate for the time‐to‐toxicity distribution by accounting for inter‐cycle variability and maintains the statistical properties of consistency and coherence. A case study of a First‐in‐Human trial in cancer for an experimental biologic is presented using the proposed design. Design calibrations for the clinical and statistical parameters are conducted to ensure good operating characteristics. Simulation results show that the proposed TITE‐CRM design with adaptive weight function yields significantly shorter trial duration, does not expose patients to additional risk, is competitive against the existing weighting methods, and possesses some desirable properties.     

Identifying unusual mortality events in bats: a baseline for bat hibernation monitoring and white‐nose syndrome research

Bat population trends are particularly affected by adult mortality, especially when large numbers of individuals die, as evidenced by white‐nose syndrome in North America. We obtained baseline mortality data from 318 European hibernacula. Mortality was low and negatively associated with elevation but not with fungal infestation. Mortality events involving more than seven bats at a hibernaculum should be considered unusual, and above this threshold, pathological or microbiological analysis should be carried out. To increase understanding of mortality in bats, there is an urgent need to develop and co‐ordinate national and international programs for monitoring and investigating mortality and diseases.     

Semiparametric modelling and estimation of covariate-adjusted dependence between bivariate recurrent events

A time-dependent measure, termed the rate ratio, was proposed to assess the local dependence between two types of recurrent event processes in one-sample settings. However, the one-sample work does not consider modeling the dependence by covariates such as subject characteristics and treatments received. The focus of this paper is to understand how and in what magnitude the covariates influence the dependence strength for bivariate recurrent events. We propose the covariate-adjusted rate ratio, a measure of covariate-adjusted dependence. We propose a semiparametric regression model for jointly modeling the frequency and dependence of bivariate recurrent events: the first level is a proportional rates model for the marginal rates and the second level is a proportional rate ratio model for the dependence structure. We develop a pseudo-partial likelihood to estimate the parameters in the proportional rate ratio model. We establish the asymptotic properties of the estimators and evaluate the finite sample performance via simulation studies. We illustrate the proposed models and methods using a soft tissue sarcoma study that examines the effects of initial treatments on the marginal frequencies of local/distant sarcoma recurrence and the dependence structure between the two types of cancer recurrence.     

Multiple factors have shaped the phylogeography of Chinese spiny loach Cobitis sinensis in Taiwan as inferred from mitochondrial DNA variation

Mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b sequences (1140 bp) in 61 specimens of Chinese spiny loach Cobitis sinensis from 12 drainages in Taiwan were identified as two major clades, exhibiting a southern and a northern distribution, north of TzengWen and south of TzengWen (including TzengWen), respectively. The divergence time between these two phylogroups was estimated at 7·34–9·06 million years before present (b.p. ), but these two phylogroups were formed c. 3·41–4·23 and 2·22–2·75 M b.p. , respectively. Moreover, geological events have been recalculated that Taiwan Island emerged above sea level at an estimate of c. 4–5 M b.p. , and quickly became its present shape at c. 2 M b.p. through mountain building. These results suggest that these two major clades of C. sinensis in Taiwan might originate from two different continental populations, since the island's initial isolation in the Pliocene. Within southern Taiwan, the initial colonization was hypothesized to be in KaoPing River, followed by its northward dispersal. The high divergence between KaoPing and TzengWen was influenced by glaciations and landforms. Within north Taiwan, the colonization was from the Miaoli Plateau through western Taiwan to north‐eastern and northern Taiwan. This dispersal pattern is concordant with the previously proposed hypothesis. Apparently, both geological and phylogeographic evidence suggested that river capture of the upper Takia River by the LanYang River promoted range expansion in freshwater fishes and also indicated that the Central Range within Taiwan did not act as a barrier to the dispersal of C. sinensis.     

Origin and evolution of the Micronesian biota: Insights from molecular phylogenies and biogeography reveal long-distance dispersal scenarios and founder-event speciation

Micronesian islands taxa show high endemism rates, but very little is known about their biogeographical histories. The lack of systematic biogeography is mainly due to insufficient phylogenetic research in Micronesia. With the recent increase in published molecular biogeographic data, we were able to, for the first time, answer fundamental biogeography questions by reviewing and analyzing numerous geological, ecological, and evolutionary studies. This review, in addition to providing an overview of Micronesian geological history, confirmed the importance of long-distance dispersal mechanisms and founder-event speciation, and morphological and physiological adaptations of plant propagules to cross vast stretches of ocean by wind, ocean currents, bird, or bat dispersal. These adaptations to habitat and geological features, including reef types, determined colonization success as well as inland dispersal and speciation mechanisms. We further identified the source areas of the Micronesian biota and reconstructed historical dispersal scenarios: a dominant Austro-Melanesian dispersal scenario, an Indo-Malaysian connecting to the Austro-Melanesian dispersal scenario, and a Neotropical American and an African dispersal scenario toward Micronesia. Most generic origins were estimated between the Eocene and the Miocene and dispersed to Micronesia between the Miocene and the Pleistocene.