樟子松人工林细根寿命估计及影响因子研究

细根寿命的估计是了解细根生产和死亡的关键, 对了解陆地生态系统碳分配格局和养分循环具有重要意义。该研究采用微根管(minirhizotron)技术, 以23年生樟子松(Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica)人工林为研究对象, 对细根生长和死亡过程进行了连续两年的观测。细根寿命的估计采用Kaplan-Meier方法, 计算细根的平均寿命(mean longevity)、中值寿命(median longevity)和累积存活率(cumulative survival rate), 用对数秩检验(log-rank test)比较单一因素, 包括细根直径、根序、出生季节和土层以及菌根侵染对细根寿命的影响。采用Cox比例风险回归分析方法, 同时分析上述因素对细根存活的影响程度。结果表明, 樟子松细根的生产和死亡具有明显的季节性, 春末和夏季(6月和7月)为生产高峰; 而死亡高峰出现在夏末至秋末, 以及冬季。樟子松细根的平均和中值寿命分别为(322 ± 10)天和(310 ± 15)天, 对数秩检验表明, 仅考虑单一因子时, 细根直径、根序、出生季节和土层以及菌根侵染均对细根寿命有显著影响。Cox回归分析表明, 菌根侵染、细根直径和土层是影响樟子松细根寿命的重要因子。细根直径每增加1 mm, 细根死亡危险率就降低99%, 即相当于寿命延长99%; 细根出生土层每增加1 cm, 其寿命延长5%; 而菌根侵染后, 会导致细根死亡危险率增加175%; 但根序和出生季节的影响不显著。这些发现证实: 林木细根寿命受到内在与外在因素的共同控制, 而多变量回归分析的方法有助于我们全面揭示细根寿命变异的潜在机制。     

Estimating differences in restricted mean lifetime using observational data subject to dependent censoring

In epidemiologic studies of time to an event, mean lifetime is often of direct interest. We propose methods to estimate group- (e.g., treatment-) specific differences in restricted mean lifetime for studies where treatment is not randomized and lifetimes are subject to both dependent and independent censoring. The proposed methods may be viewed as a hybrid of two general approaches to accounting for confounders. Specifically, treatment-specific proportional hazards models are employed to account for baseline covariates, while inverse probability of censoring weighting is used to accommodate time-dependent predictors of censoring. The average causal effect is then obtained by averaging over differences in fitted values based on the proportional hazards models. Large-sample properties of the proposed estimators are derived and simulation studies are conducted to assess their finite-sample applicability. We apply the proposed methods to liver wait list mortality data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients.     

The release of genetically engineered micro-organisms and viruses into the environment

This review considers the reasons for, and research governing, the regulation and monitoring of genetically engineered micro-organisms and viruses (GEMs) released into the environment. The hazards associated with releasing GEMs into the environment are the creation and evolution of new pests and diseases, and damage to the ecosystem and non target species. The similarities and differences between GEMs and conventional micro-organisms are discussed in relation to risk assessment. Other issues covered include the persistence of micro-organisms in the environment, transgene dispersal to non-engineered microbes and other organisms, the effects of transgenes and transformation on fitness, and the evolution of pests and pathogens that are given or acquire transgenes. Areas requiring further research are identified and recommendations for risk assessment made.     

Modeling senescence changes of the pubic symphysis in historic Italian populations: A comparison of the Rostock and forensic approaches to aging using transition analysis

Age‐related anatomical changes to the surface of the pubic symphysis are well‐documented in the literature. However, aligning these morphological changes with chronological age has proven problematic, often resulting in biased age estimates. Statistical modeling provides an avenue for forensic anthropologists and bioarchaeologists to increase the accuracy of traditional aging methods. Locating appropriate samples to use as a basis for modeling age estimations can be challenging due to differing sample age distributions and potentially varying patterns of senescence. We compared two approaches, Rostock and Forensic, coupled with a Bayesian methodology, to address these issues. Transition analysis was run specific to each method (which differ by sample selection). A Gompertz model was derived from an informative prior that yielded the mortality and senescence parameters for constructing highest posterior density ranges, i.e., coverages, which are analogous to age ranges. These age ranges were generated from both approaches and are presented as reference tables useful for historic male and female Italian samples. The age ranges produced from each approach were tested on an historic Italian sample, using cumulative binomial tests. These two approaches performed similarly, with the Forensic approach showing a slight advantage. However, the Forensic approach is unable to identify varying senescence patterns between populations, thus preference for one approach over the other will depend on research design. Finally, we demonstrate that while populations exhibit similar morphological changes with advancing age, there are no significant sex differences in these samples, and the timing of these changes varies from population to population. Am J Phys Anthropol 156:466–473, 2015. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Robust joint modeling of longitudinal measurements and time to event data using normal/independent distributions: A Bayesian approach

Joint modeling of longitudinal data and survival data has been used widely for analyzing AIDS clinical trials, where a biological marker such as CD4 count measurement can be an important predictor of survival. In most of these studies, a normal distribution is used for modeling longitudinal responses, which leads to vulnerable inference in the presence of outliers in longitudinal measurements. Powerful distributions for robust analysis are normal/independent distributions, which include univariate and multivariate versions of the Student's t, the slash and the contaminated normal distributions in addition to the normal. In this paper, a linear‐mixed effects model with normal/independent distribution for both random effects and residuals and Cox's model for survival time are used. For estimation, a Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo is adopted. Some simulation studies are performed for illustration of the proposed method. Also, the method is illustrated on a real AIDS data set and the best model is selected using some criteria.     

Soil insects alter fine root demography in peach (Prunus persica)

Minirhizotrons were used to assess the effects of soil insect suppression on the demography of peach fine roots (<1 mm diameter) over two growing seasons. The experiment was conducted at the USDA–ARS Appalachian Fruit Research Station in Kearneysville, WV, USA using six 15‐year‐old peach trees. Clear butyrate minirhizotrons were installed beneath each tree in April 1996. Soil drench treatments were applied around individual minirhizotron tubes at monthly intervals and consisted of 1 L of water or 250 µL of a broad‐spectrum insecticide in 1 L of water. Roots were videotaped at 2‐ to 4‐week intervals during the 1996 and 1997 growing seasons. Insecticide application was associated with a significant increase in fine root longevity: the median lifespans of insecticide‐treated roots were 46–125 d longer than those of control roots. In addition, the development of brown pigmentation was significantly delayed in insecticide‐treated roots. Insecticide application did not appear to increase soil fertility, as accumulation of NO₃^–, NH₄⁺, and PO₄²‐ on mixed bed ion‐exchange resin was similar in treated and untreated soil. These results suggest that interactions with below‐ground insects can significantly influence root longevity and may alter the rate at which roots undergo developmental changes in anatomy and physiology.     

Human health risks from consuming cabbage (Brassica oleracea L. var. capitata) grown on wastewater irrigated soil

The present study investigated the impact of cumulative irrigation with wastewater on the soil properties and, its health hazards on the consumers of cabbage plants at south Cairo Province, Egypt. Irrigation water, soil and cabbage plants were sample d from two polluted and other two unpolluted farms. The physicochemical properties of water and soil were analyzed and the growth parameters, as well as nutrients and heavy metals concentration in cabbage were investigated. In addition, the daily intake of metals (DIM) and health risk index (HRI) were estimated. Wastewater posed a decrease in the availability of N, P and K, but increases heavy metals in the soil solution. Cabbage stem and root lengths as well as the number of leaves and biomass were greatly reduced in the polluted farms. In addition, the photosynthetic pigments, carbohydrates and proteins were decreased under pollution stress. The concentration of most investigated metals in the leaves and roots were increased with translocation factor greater than one for Pb, Cd, As, Cr, Ni, Fe, and Co. The study revealed that the HRI exceeded one for Pb and Cd in polluted and unpolluted plants; and Fe in polluted ones. Irrigation with wastewater is not suitable for cabbage as it has health risks on humans due to accumulation of heavy metals. It worth noting that, the high ability of cabbage plants to accumulate Pb and Cd from both polluted and unpolluted soils should be taken into consideration when consuming this plant.