Health risks of consuming apples with carbendazim,imidacloprid, and thiophanate-methyl in the Chinese population: Risk assessment based on a nonparametric probabilistic evaluation model

The pesticides carbendazim (CA), imidacloprid (IM), and thiophanate-methyl (TH) are used extensively in apple production. However, the presence of pesticide residues in apples has been associated with a wide range of human health hazards. To assess whether apples are safe to consume, evaluating their potential health risk is of great significance. We tested apples from two dominant apple-producing areas for the presence of pesticide residues and constructed a statistical model to evaluate their health risks. Of the three commonly used pesticides, thirty-two samples (11.3% of all tested samples) were residue-free and 231 (81.9%) contained CA residues, which was the most frequently detectable pesticide, followed by TH (52.1%) and IM (39.0%). All of the samples were below the maximum residue limits. The probabilistic assessment results indicated that the pesticide intake risks for kids (aged 2–6 years) and children (aged 7–13 years) were significantly higher than those of other groups, so that they were the vital monitoring objects. Our findings indicate that consumption of apples with these three pesticides does not pose a health threat for the population. Nevertheless, we recommend an investigation into continuous monitoring and stricter regulations on fruits' quality and safety throughout China.     

Large‐ and small‐scale geographic structures affecting genetic patterns across populations of an Alpine butterfly

Understanding factors influencing patterns of genetic diversity and the population genetic structure of species is of particular importance in the current era of global climate change and habitat loss. These factors include the evolutionary history of a species as well as heterogeneity in the environment it occupies, which in turn can change across time. Most studies investigating spatio‐temporal genetic patterns have focused on patterns across wide geographic areas rather than local variation, but the latter can nevertheless be important particularly in topographically complex areas. Here, we consider these issues in the Sooty Copper butterfly (Lycaena tityrus) from the European Alps, using genome‐wide SNPs identified through RADseq. We found strong genetic differentiation within the Alps with four genetic clusters, indicating western, central, and eastern refuges, and a strong reduction of genetic diversity from west to east. This reduction in diversity may suggest that the southwestern refuge was the largest one in comparison to other refuges. Also, the high genetic diversity in the west may result from (a) admixture of different western refuges, (b) more recent demographic changes, or (c) introgression of lowland L. tityrus populations. At small spatial scales, populations were structured by several landscape features and especially by high mountain ridges and large river valleys. We detected 36 outlier loci likely under altitudinal selection, including several loci related to membranes and cellular processes. We suggest that efforts to preserve alpine L. tityrus should focus on the genetically diverse populations in the western Alps, and that the dolomite populations should be treated as genetically distinct management units, since they appear to be currently more threatened than others. This study demonstrates the usefulness of SNP‐based approaches for understanding patterns of genetic diversity, gene flow, and selection in a region that is expected to be particularly vulnerable to climate change.     

Inverse analysis of coupled carbon-nitrogen cycles against multiple datasets at ambient and elevated CO2

Aims Carbon (C) sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems is strongly regulated by nitrogen (N) processes. However, key parameters that determine the degree of N regulation on terrestrial C sequestration have not been well quantified.Methods Here, we used a Bayesian probabilistic inversion approach to estimate 14 target parameters related to ecosystem C and N interactions from 19 datasets obtained from Duke Forests under ambient and elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂).Important findings Our results indicated that 8 of the 14 target parameters, such as C:N ratios in most ecosystem compartments, plant N uptake and external N input, were well constrained by available datasets whereas the others, such as N allocation coefficients, N loss and the initial value of mineral N pool were poorly constrained. Our analysis showed that elevated CO₂ led to the increases in C:N ratios in foliage, fine roots and litter. Moreover, elevated CO₂ stimulated plant N uptake and increased ecosystem N capital in Duke Forests by 25.2 and 8.5%, respectively. In addition, elevated CO₂ resulted in the decrease of C exit rates (i.e. increases in C residence times) in foliage, woody biomass, structural litter and passive soil organic matter, but the increase of C exit rate in fine roots. Our results demonstrated that CO₂ enrichment substantially altered key parameters in determining terrestrial C and N interactions, which have profound implications for model improvement and predictions of future C sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems in response to global change.     

An Ecological Risk Assessment of Ammonia in the Aquatic Environment

Ammonia is released in the environment by many industries and other human activities. The major quantifiable sources of ammonia released to aquatic ecosystems across Canada are municipal wastewater treatment plants, at an estimated total quantity of 62,000 tonnes per year. Given the sources of ammonia releases in the environment and the properties of the substance, terrestrial plants and aquatic organisms are potential risk targets. A tiered assessment approach has been used to determine the ecological risk in the aquatic environment from ammonia released in municipal wastewater effluents. The results obtained for two case studies with the probabilistic risk analysis used in the highest tier support the conclusion that the conditions encountered in these two locations can lead to ammonia concentrations capable of producing an adverse ecological impact.     

Plasticity in probabilistic reaction norms for maturation in a salmonid fish

The relationship between body size and the probability of maturing, often referred to as the probabilistic maturation reaction norm (PMRN), has been increasingly used to infer genetic variation in maturation schedule. Despite this trend, few studies have directly evaluated plasticity in the PMRN. A transplant experiment using white-spotted charr demonstrated that the PMRN for precocious males exhibited plasticity. A smaller threshold size at maturity occurred in charr inhabiting narrow streams where more refuges are probably available for small charr, which in turn might enhance the reproductive success of sneaker precocious males. Our findings suggested that plastic effects should clearly be included in investigations of variation in PMRNs.     

Risk of symptomatic dengue for foreign visitors to the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil

Brazil will host the FIFA World Cup™, the biggest single-event competition in the world, from June 12-July 13 2014 in 12 cities. This event will draw an estimated 600,000 international visitors. Brazil is endemic for dengue. Hence, attendees of the 2014 event are theoretically at risk for dengue. We calculated the risk of dengue acquisition to non-immune international travellers to Brazil, depending on the football match schedules, considering locations and dates of such matches for June and July 2014. We estimated the average per-capita risk and expected number of dengue cases for each host-city and each game schedule chosen based on reported dengue cases to the Brazilian Ministry of Health for the period between 2010-2013. On the average, the expected number of cases among the 600,000 foreigner tourists during the World Cup is 33, varying from 3-59. Such risk estimates will not only benefit individual travellers for adequate pre-travel preparations, but also provide valuable information for public health professionals and policy makers worldwide. Furthermore, estimates of dengue cases in international travellers during the World Cup can help to anticipate the theoretical risk for exportation of dengue into currently non-infected areas.     

Exposure to Dishwashing Liquid Assessed in University Students from Brest City: A Preliminary Study—A First Approach to Household Products Exposure in France

In recent years, more attention has been paid to exposure of the general population to household products. In order to assess exposure, it is necessary to generate exposure data. For this reason, a preliminary study of dishwashing liquid contact on Brest university students was performed. Dishwashing liquid is frequently used and when it is improperly mixed it can liberate harmful molecules. As for university students, they may have a repetitive contact with dishwashing liquid during their academic studies. Relevant parameters as frequency of dishwashing, duration, and amount of dishwashing liquid were assessed from questionnaires and laboratory tests. Tests revealed that overall no difference between the sexes and the type of residential household on dishwashing was present on this population. Amount of washed items and duration was significantly correlated, which could seem logical but remarkable considering the lack of correlation between other parameters. Values of 1.39 and 58.8 μg/kg bw/day for the 95th percentile of dermal and inhalation probabilistic exposure were found, respectively. Dermal exposure coincides with deterministic published data. In the case of inhalation exposure no published data are available. Higher inhalation exposure value may show that dermal exposure is diminished by high dilution of dishwashing liquid in water.     

Towards a more transparent use of the potential natural vegetation concept – an answer to Chiarucci et al.

In this paper, the concerns of Chiarucci et al. ( 2010 ) regarding use of the potential natural vegetation (PNV) concept are addressed, as voiced in the forum section of the Journal of Vegetation Science. First, we rectify some unfounded expectations concerning PNV, including a relationship with prehuman vegetation and phytosociology. Second, we point out issues that pose considerable challenges in PNV and require common agreement. Here, we address the issue of time and disturbance. We propose to use the static PNV concept as a baseline, a null model for landscape assessment and in comparisons. Instead of changing the PNV concept itself, we introduce a new term, potential future natural vegetation (PFV) to cover estimations of potential successional outcomes. Finally, we offer a new view of PNV with which we intend to make the use of PNV estimates more transparent. We formalize the PNV theory into a partial cause‐effect model of vegetation that clearly states which effects on vegetation are factored out during its estimation. Further, we also propose to assess PNV in a probabilistic setting, rather than providing a single estimate for one location. This multiple PNV would reflect our uncertainty about the vegetation entity that could persist at the locality concerned. Such uncertainty arises from the overlap of environmental preferences of different mature vegetation types. Thus reformulated, we argue that the PNV concept has much to offer as a null model, especially in landscape ecology and in site comparisons in space and time.     

Evaluation of Sampling-Based Methods for Sensitivity Analysis: Case Study for the E. coli Food Safety Process Risk Model

This article evaluates selected sensitivity analysis methods applicable to risk assessment models with two-dimensional probabilistic frameworks, using a microbial food safety process risk model as a test-bed. Six sampling-based sensitivity analysis methods were evaluated including Pearson and Spearman correlation, sample and rank linear regression, and sample and rank stepwise regression. In a two-dimensional risk model, the identification of key controllable inputs that can be priorities for risk management can be confounded by uncertainty. However, despite uncertainty, results show that key inputs can be distinguished from those that are unimportant, and inputs can be grouped into categories of similar levels of importance. All selected methods are capable of identifying unimportant inputs, which is helpful in that efforts to collect data to improve the assessment or to focus risk management strategies can be prioritized elsewhere. Rank-based methods provided more robust insights with respect to the key sources of variability in that they produced narrower ranges of uncertainty for sensitivity results and more clear distinctions when comparing the importance of inputs or groups of inputs. Regression-based methods have advantages over correlation approaches because they can be configured to provide insight regarding interactions and nonlinearities in the model.