Multi-scale Predictions of Drug Resistance Epidemiology Identify Design Principles for Rational Drug Design

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Nomogram to Assess the Risk of Central Cervical Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients With Clinical N0 Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

ObjectiveTo develop and validate an individualized risk prediction model for the need for central cervical lymph node dissection in patients with clinical N0 papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) diagnosed using ultrasound.MethodsUpon retrospective review, derivation and internal validation cohorts comprised 1585 consecutive patients with PTC treated from January 2017 to December 2019 at hospital A. The external validation cohort consisted of 406 consecutive patients treated at hospital B from January 2016 to June 2020. Independent risk factors for central cervical lymph node metastasis (CLNM) were determined through univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. An individualized risk prediction model was constructed and illustrated as a nomogram, which was internally and externally validated.ResultsThe following risk factors of CLNM were established: a solitary primary thyroid nodule’s diameter, shape, calcification, and capsular abutment-to-lesion perimeter ratio. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the risk prediction model for the internal and external validation cohorts were 0.921 and 0.923, respectively. The calibration curve showed good agreement between the nomogram-estimated probability of CLNM and the actual CLNM rates in the 3 cohorts. The decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical usefulness of the nomogram.ConclusionThis study developed and validated a model for predicting the risk of CLNM in individual patients with clinical N0 PTC, which should be an efficient tool for guiding clinical treatment.     

Genomics and Molecular Medicine

Molecular medicine is a new research field underlain by achievements of the Human Genome Project. The review considers the contribution of the Laboratory of Prenatal Diagnostics of the Ott Institute of Obstetrics and Gynecology to the development of molecular medicine in Russia. Special emphasis is placed on molecular diagnostics, predictive medicine, and gene therapy. The lab obtained priority results in devising and promoting methods of molecular diagnostics of the most common severe hereditary disorders such as cystic fibrosis, Duchenne muscular dystrophy, hemophilia A, and fragile X syndrome. Owing to the Russian program Human Genome, St. Petersburg researchers laid the foundations for theoretical and applied predictive medicine, which is aimed at identifying and analyzing the genes associated with predisposition to high-incidence multifactorial disorders. Experiments with mdx mice providing a model of Duchenne muscular dystrophy were carried out to select the optimal way of delivering a transgene (cDNA of the dystrophin gene) contained in various constructs for the purpose of gene therapy.     

Predictive Bayesian Dose-Response Assessment for Appraising Absolute Health Risk from Available Information

Currently, no general measure of population health response to untestable doses of chemicals and microbes has been established that accounts for uncertainty quantitatively and indicates relative toxicity or virulence directly. Untestable doses include those corresponding to the 2.74 × 10^?7 illnesses per exposure expressed in goals of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Surface Water Treatment Rule, and doses of human bioterror agents. For example, it is shown that relative Benchmark Dose (BMD) values depend upon the level of confidence assumed. Because of the lack of scientific basis for this level, BMDs are not comparable among health stressors for untestable doses and stressors. In this paper a new predictive Bayesian method is proposed for absolute and relative dose-response assessment based on available information. Information may include toxicological judgment, epidemiological statistics, genetic information, related data, and numeric dose-response data. Results for rotavirus indicate a “safe dose” of 6.3 × 10^?7 focus-forming units/exposure, approximately one-half log above the dose corresponding to the maximum risk for any pathogen assuming a 100% infection rate. The result further indicates the limited value of data in refining the assessment, due to the inability of data to reduce variability. The method is suggested for assessing risks of new and existing chemicals and pathogens, as a basis for prioritizing expenditures for protection against environmental and terrorist threats.     

Orientation selectivity enhances context generalization and generative predictive coding in the hippocampus

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Inequalities for estimative and predictive probabilities

Let μE be the estimative and μP the predictive measures for assessing Gaussian probabilities. It is shown for convex symmetric sets A that _μE(A) _μP(A) and that similar inequalities hold between members of a sequence of predictive measures. An application yields inequalities for generalized indices of atypicality associated with the two methods.     

AH jump duration is associated with elimination of slow pathway during ablation of atrioventricular nodal reentrant tachycardia

IntroductionAblating the slow pathway (SP) is the superior treatment for atrioventricular nodal reentrant tachycardia (AVNRT) with a low complication rate. However, the ablation of the SP could result in either complete elimination or modification of the SP. We aimed to investigate whether the duration of AH jump pre-ablation associated with the outcome of elimination of SP.MethodsWe included 56 patients with typical AVNRT (slow-fast), 20 males and 36 females, aged 44.2 ± 15.1 years. Slow pathway ablation was performed using classical approach. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed for potential predictors of SP elimination.ResultsTypical AVNRT was inducible in all patients. Post-ablation, non-inducibility of AVNRT was obtained in all 56 (100%) patients, with SP elimination in 33 (61%) patients and SP modification in 23 (39%) patients. Patients with SP elimination had significantly longer AH jump than patients with SP modification. Cox regression analysis showed that AH jump duration was the independent predictor of SP elimination, in which every 20 ms increase in AH jump duration was associated with 1.30 higher rate of SP elimination. Furthermore, ROC curve analysis indicated that the AH jump duration of ≥100 ms had 6.14 times higher probability for complete elimination of the SP with a sensitivity of 79%, specificity of 70%, PPV of 79% and NPV of 70%.ConclusionsAH jump duration pre-ablation is associated with complete elimination of slow pathway during AVNRT ablation.     

Use of the Free Thyroxine Index to Refine the Lower Limit of a Free Thyroxine Immunoassay for Detection of Secondary Hypothyroidism

ObjectiveTo determine the utility of measuring free T₄ index (FT₄I) in patients with low free T₄ (FT₄) levels using immunoassay and normal thyroid-stimulating hormone for the evaluation of secondary hypothyroidism.MethodsWe performed a retrospective medical chart review of patients seen at a single institution as outpatients who had a simultaneously normal thyroid-stimulating hormone level, low FT₄ level, and any FT₄I measured between June 2014 and October 2016. Demographic, laboratory, and imaging data were collected. Using FT₄I as the reference for diagnosis of hypothyroidism, the sensitivity and specificity of the FT₄ immunoassay’s lower-limit thresholds were determined. Within each threshold group, available brain imaging and biochemical evaluation were categorized according to the presence or absence of pituitary disease.ResultsA total of 155 sets of result pairs (FT₄ and FT₄I) performed on 118 subjects were analyzed. The lower limit of a normal FT₄ level by immunoassay at this institution was 0.93 ng/dL, though all pairs with FT₄ ≥0.89 ng/dL had a normal FT₄I. All pairs with FT₄ ≤0.67 ng/dL had a low FT₄I. No pituitary macroadenomas were identified in any subject, though the rates of pituitary imaging in this patient sample were low.ConclusionPatients with a borderline low FT₄ level by immunoassay often have normal FT₄I. In such patients at our center, significant structural and biochemical pituitary pathology was uncommon.