Occupancy versus colonization–extinction models for projecting population trends at different spatial scales

Understanding spatiotemporal population trends and their drivers is a key aim in population ecology. We further need to be able to predict how the dynamics and sizes of populations are affected in the long term by changing landscapes and climate. However, predictions of future population trends are sensitive to a range of modeling assumptions. Deadwood‐dependent fungi are an excellent system for testing the performance of different predictive models of sessile species as these species have different rarity and spatial population dynamics, the populations are structured at different spatial scales, and they utilize distinct substrates. We tested how the projected large‐scale occupancies of species with differing landscape‐scale occupancies are affected over the coming century by different modeling assumptions. We compared projections based on occupancy models against colonization–extinction models, conducting the modeling at alternative spatial scales and using fine‐ or coarse‐resolution deadwood data. We also tested effects of key explanatory variables on species occurrence and colonization–extinction dynamics. The hierarchical Bayesian models applied were fitted to an extensive repeated survey of deadwood and fungi at 174 patches. We projected higher occurrence probabilities and more positive trends using the occupancy models compared to the colonization–extinction models, with greater difference for the species with lower occupancy, colonization rate, and colonization:extinction ratio than for the species with higher estimates of these statistics. The magnitude of future increase in occupancy depended strongly on the spatial modeling scale and resource resolution. We encourage using colonization–extinction models over occupancy models, modeling the process at the finest resource‐unit resolution that is utilizable by the species, and conducting projections for the same spatial scale and resource resolution at which the model fitting is conducted. Further, the models applied should include key variables driving the metapopulation dynamics, such as the availability of suitable resource units, habitat quality, and spatial connectivity.     

Rapid generation of ecologically relevant behavioral novelty in experimental cichlid hybrids

The East African cichlid radiations are characterized by repeated and rapid diversification into many distinct species with different ecological specializations and by a history of hybridization events between nonsister species. Such hybridization might provide important fuel for adaptive radiation. Interspecific hybrids can have extreme trait values or novel trait combinations and such transgressive phenotypes may allow some hybrids to explore ecological niches neither of the parental species could tap into. Here, we investigate the potential of second‐generation (F2) hybrids between two generalist cichlid species from Lake Malawi to exploit a resource neither parental species is specialized on: feeding by sifting sand. Some of the F2 hybrids phenotypically resembled fish of species that are specialized on sand sifting. We combined experimental behavioral and morphometric approaches to test whether the F2 hybrids are transgressive in both morphology and behavior related to sand sifting. We then performed a quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis using RADseq markers to investigate the genetic architecture of morphological and behavioral traits. We show that transgression is present in several morphological traits, that novel trait combinations occur, and we observe transgressive trait values in sand sifting behavior in some of the F2 hybrids. Moreover, we find QTLs for morphology and for sand sifting behavior, suggesting the existence of some loci with moderate to large effects. We demonstrate that hybridization has the potential to rapidly generate novel and ecologically relevant phenotypes that may be suited to a niche neither of the parental species occupies. Interspecific hybridization may thereby contribute to the rapid generation of ecological diversity in cichlid radiations.     

Ecological and morphological determinants of evolutionary diversification in Darwin's finches and their relatives

Darwin''s finches are a classic example of adaptive radiation, a process by which multiple ecologically distinct species rapidly evolve from a single ancestor. Such evolutionary diversification is typically explained by adaptation to new ecological opportunities. However, the ecological diversification of Darwin''s finches following their dispersal to Galápagos was not matched on the same archipelago by other lineages of colonizing land birds, which diversified very little in terms of both species number and morphology. To better understand the causes underlying the extraordinary variation in Darwin''s finches, we analyze the evolutionary dynamics of speciation and trait diversification in Thraupidae, including Coerebinae (Darwin''s finches and relatives) and, their closely related clade, Sporophilinae. For all traits, we observe an early pulse of speciation and morphological diversification followed by prolonged periods of slower steady‐state rates of change. The primary exception is the apparent recent increase in diversification rate in Darwin''s finches coupled with highly variable beak morphology, a potential key factor explaining this adaptive radiation. Our observations illustrate how the exploitation of ecological opportunity by contrasting means can produce clades with similarly high diversification rate yet strikingly different degrees of ecological and morphological differentiation.     

An Experimental Test of Adaptive Introgression in Locally Adapted Populations of Splash Pool Copepods

As species struggle to keep pace with the rapidly warming climate, adaptive introgression of beneficial alleles from closely related species or populations provides a possible avenue for rapid adaptation. We investigate the potential for adaptive introgression in the copepod, Tigriopus californicus, by hybridizing two populations with divergent heat tolerance limits. We subjected hybrids to strong heat selection for 15 generations followed by whole-genome resequencing. Utilizing a hybridize evolve and resequence (HER) technique, we can identify loci responding to heat selection via a change in allele frequency. We successfully increased the heat tolerance (measured as LT₅₀) in selected lines, which was coupled with higher frequencies of alleles from the southern (heat tolerant) population. These repeatable changes in allele frequencies occurred on all 12 chromosomes across all independent selected lines, providing evidence that heat tolerance is polygenic. These loci contained genes with lower protein-coding sequence divergence than the genome-wide average, indicating that these loci are highly conserved between the two populations. In addition, these loci were enriched in genes that changed expression patterns between selected and control lines in response to a nonlethal heat shock. Therefore, we hypothesize that the mechanism of heat tolerance divergence is explained by differential gene expression of highly conserved genes. The HER approach offers a unique solution to identifying genetic variants contributing to polygenic traits, especially variants that might be missed through other population genomic approaches.     

Identifying conversion efficiency as a key mechanism underlying food webs adaptive evolution: a step forward,or backward?

Body size or mass is one of the main factors underlying food webs structure. A large number of evolutionary models have shown that indeed, the adaptive evolution of body size (or mass) can give rise to hierarchically organised trophic levels with complex between and within trophic interactions. However, these models generally make strong arbitrary assumptions on how traits evolve, casting doubts on their robustness. In particular, biomass conversion efficiency is always considered independent of the predator and prey size, which contradicts with the literature. In this paper, we propose a general model encompassing most previous models which allows to show that relaxing arbitrary assumptions gives rise to unrealistic food webs. We then show that considering biomass conversion efficiency dependent on species size is certainly key for food webs adaptive evolution because realistic food webs can evolve, making obsolete the need of arbitrary constraints on traits' evolution. We finally conclude that, on the one hand, ecologists should pay attention to how biomass flows into food webs in models. On the other hand, we question more generally the robustness of evolutionary models for the study of food webs.     

A comprehensive landscape genomics approach for seed sourcing strategies in landscapes under varying degrees of habitat disturbance

As most ecosystems around the world are threatened by anthropogenic degradation and climate change, there is an increasing urgency to implement restoration strategies aiming at ensuring ecosystem self‐sustainability and resilience. An initial step towards that goal relies on selecting the most suitable seed sources for a successful revegetation, which can be extremely challenging in highly degraded landscapes. The most common seed sourcing strategy is to select local seeds because it is assumed that plants experience strong adaptations to their natal sites. An alternative strategy is the selection of climate‐adapted genotypes to future conditions. While considering future climatic projections is important to account for spatial shifts in climate to inform assisted gene flow and translocations, to restore highly degraded landscapes we need a comprehensive approach that first accounts for species adaptations to current at‐site environmental conditions. In this issue of Molecular Ecology Resources, Carvalho et al. present a novel landscape genomics framework to identify the most appropriate seed sourcing strategy for moderately and highly degraded sites by integrating genotype, phenotype and environmental data in a spatially explicit context for two native plant species with potential to help restore iron‐rich Amazonian savannas. This framework is amenable to be applicable and adapted to a broad range of restoration initiatives, as the dichotomy between focusing on the current or future climatic conditions should depend on the goals and environmental circumstances of each restoration site.     

Construction of a robust prognostic model for adult adrenocortical carcinoma: Results from bioinformatics and real-world data

This study aims to construct a robust prognostic model for adult adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC) by large-scale multiomics analysis and real-world data. The RPPA data, gene expression profiles and clinical information of adult ACC patients were obtained from The Cancer Proteome Atlas (TCPA), Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Integrated prognosis-related proteins (IPRPs) model was constructed. Immunohistochemistry was used to validate the prognostic value of the IPRPs model in Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center (FUSCC) cohort. 76 ACC cases from TCGA and 22 ACC cases from GSE10927 in NCBI’s GEO database with full data for clinical information and gene expression were utilized to validate the effectiveness of the IPRPs model. Higher FASN (P = .039), FIBRONECTIN (P < .001), TFRC (P < .001), TSC1 (P < .001) expression indicated significantly worse overall survival for adult ACC patients. Risk assessment suggested significantly a strong predictive capacity of IPRPs model for poor overall survival (P < .05). IPRPs model showed a little stronger ability for predicting prognosis than Ki-67 protein in FUSCC cohort (P = .003, HR = 3.947; P = .005, HR = 3.787). In external validation of IPRPs model using gene expression data, IPRPs model showed strong ability for predicting prognosis in TCGA cohort (P = .005, HR = 3.061) and it exhibited best ability for predicting prognosis in GSE10927 cohort (P = .0898, HR = 2.318). This research constructed IPRPs model for predicting adult ACC patients’ prognosis using proteomic data, gene expression data and real-world data and this prognostic model showed stronger predictive value than other biomarkers (Ki-67, Beta-catenin, etc) in multi-cohorts.     

Testing the effect of restoration‐focused silviculture on oak regeneration and groundlayer plant communities in urban–exurban oak woodlands

Throughout their global range, oak‐dominated ecosystems have undergone state changes in stand structure and composition. Land managers face an especially acute challenge in restoring oak ecosystems and promoting oak regeneration in urban–exurban areas, where high‐intensity silvicultural treatments are often not feasible. To investigate low‐intensity management alternatives which could be widely applied in urban–exurban forests, a large‐scale adaptive management experiment was implemented in Lake County, IL, in 2012. Five canopy manipulation treatments of varying intensity, timing, and spatial aggregation were replicated across three study areas and oak seedlings were under‐planted into treatment units following management. Responses of understory light environment, shrub and groundlayer plant communities, and survival and growth of underplanted oak seedlings were evaluated. Understory light availability, canopy openness, total groundlayer plant cover, and groundlayer species diversity all differed among treatments. However, although understory light availability was significantly increased by canopy manipulation, groundlayer communities and oak seedling survival and growth did not differ among treatments. High overall seedling survival rates suggest current conditions are amenable to oak regeneration, but long‐term monitoring will be needed to assess the potential for seedlings to transition to the sapling and canopy layers. Early results demonstrate that canopy‐focused silvicultural treatments can affect the understory light environment and, to some degree, groundlayer plant communities. However, underplanting of oak seedlings paired with subcanopy thinning may be sufficient to restore an oak seedling layer, and (when necessary or preferred) canopy manipulation could potentially be deferred until later in the restoration timeline to promote oak recruitment.