On the solution of mathematical models of herd immunity in human helminth infections

The general solution of the mathematical model of herd immunity to human helminth infections recently proposed by Anderson and May [3] is obtained. The numerical solution of a more accurate biological model is indistinguishable from the corresponding exact solution of a more tractable mathematical model. Computer simulations of some particular cases of this model support the notion that both ecological and immunological factors determine the observed convex patterns of age-prevalence and age-intensity curves of human helminth infections.This work was made thanks to the advise and support of Dr. Robert M. May while the author was Postdoctoral Fellow at Princeton University     

Relationships among recent models for insect population dynamics with variable rates of development

A classification scheme for those population models which allow variation in development rates is proposed, based on two ways of modifying standard age-structured models. The resulting classes of models are termed development index models and sojourn time models. General formulations for the two classes of models are developed from two basic balance equations, and numerous specific models from the literature are shown to fit into the scheme. Concepts from competing risks theory are shown to be important in understanding the interplay between mortality and maturation. Relationships among the classes are investigated both for the most general forms of the models and for the simpler forms often used. The scheme can provide guidance in developing appropriate insect population models for specific modelling situations.Contribution 3878871     

Models for contact-mediated pattern formation: cells that form parallel arrays

Kinetic continuum models are derived for cells that crawl over a 2D substrate, undergo random reorientation, and turn in response to contact with a neighbor. The integro-partial differential equations account for changes in the distribution of orientations in the population. It is found that behavior depends on parameters such as total mass, random motility, adherence, and sloughing rates, as well as on broad aspects of the contact response. Linear stability analysis, and numerical, and cellular automata simulations reveal that as parameters are varied, a bifurcation leads to loss of stability of a uniform (isotropic) steady state, in favor of an (anisotropic) patterned state in which cells are aligned in parallel arrays.     

Predation pressure on an imperfect Batesian micicry complex in the presence of alternative prey

Summary Differential predation pressure and the probability of predation on a Batesian mimicry complex and on alternative prey were estimatedin a field experiment. The mimicry complex was composed of a noxious model (Eleodes obscura (Say)) and a palatable mimic (Stenomorpha marginata (LeConte)). House crickets (Acheta domesticus) (Linn.) were used as alternative prey. The experiment was conducted for 23 nights in August and September to approximate the peak seasonal activity time period during which both models and mimics normally are exposed to predation while foraging and depositing eggs. Each night thirty prey in ratios of 16 models: 7 mimics: 7 crickets were exposed for 2.5 h to a suite of predators consisting of pallid bats (Antrozous pallidus), striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) and ringtails (Bassariscus astutus) that had free access to the prey. The model-mimic ratio was similar to that found in nature. Predators obtained prey on 11 of the 23 nights and preferred the alternative prey (crickets) in proportions higher than was expected from a predation rate that was equal on all species of prey. Mimics were taken by predators at a rate proportional to their abundance, while models were taken at a rate considerably lower than their relative abundance. This suggests that at least some of the predators could distinguish between models and mimics and were willing to eat the mimics at higher frequencies than they were willing to eat the models. However, although the mimicry is not perfect with respect to the entire predator suite, the mimics still gain an advantage by resembling the models, compared to the predation levels on the alternate prey.     

Correlation of immunomodulatory and therapeutic activities of interferon and interferon inducers in metastatic disease

The mechanism of therapeutic activity of recombinant murine interferon-gamma (rMu IFN-gamma) and the IFN inducer polyinosinic-polycytidylic acid solubilized with poly-L-lysine in carboxy methyl cellulose (pICLC) in treating metastatic disease was investigated by comparing effector cell augmentation with therapeutic activity in mice bearing experimental lung metastases (B16-BL6 melanoma). Effector cell functions in spleen, peripheral blood, and lung (the organ with tumor) were tested after 1 and 3 weeks of rMu IFN-gamma or pICLC administration (intravenous, three times a week). In these studies, natural killer (NK), lymphokine-activated killer (LAK), cytolytic T lymphocytes (CTL) (against specific and nonspecific targets), and macrophage tumoricidal and tumoristatic activities were measured. rM IFN-gamma and pICLC had therapeutic activity and immunomodulatory activity in most assays of immune function examined. Specific CTL activity of pulmonary parenchymal mononuclear cells (PPMC), but not in splenocytes or peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBL), during week 3 and not during week 1, correlated with the therapeutic activity of rMu IFN-gamma and of pICLC. Macrophage tumoricidal activity in PPMC, but not in alveolar macrophages, also correlated with the therapeutic activity of rMu IFN-gamma, but the opposite was true for the therapeutic activity of pICLC. NK activity of PPMC, but not of splenocytes or PBL, during week 1 correlated with the therapeutic activity of pICLC; in contrast, NK activity at any site did not correlate with the therapeutic activity of rMu IFN-gamma. LAK activity at any site did not correlate with the therapeutic activity of either agent.     

Prey selectivity inEuseius tularensis [Acari: Phytoseiidae]

Differences in responsiveness to potential prey and pollen were tested in the facultative predator,Euseius tularensis Congdon. Following isolation without food for 16 h, adult female mites were observed with one of the following potential foods: pollen ofMalephora crocea (Jacquin) Schwantes,Scirtothrips citri (Moulton) 2nd instar larvae,Tetranychus pacificus McGregor nymphs and ♂,Panonychus citri (McGregor) nymphs and ♂,E. hibisci (Chant) larvae, andE. tularensis larvae. Responses were compared using the proportion of encounters that resulted in consumption. This proportion was highest when pollen was encountered, followed byS. citri andT. pacificus. Consumption was much lower in response toP. citri and congeneric larvae. WhenS. citri larvae were encountered a 2nd time, 1 to 2 h after the initial capture and consumption, responsiveness increased to a level equal to the response observed with pollen. These results suggest thatE. tularensis is a more effective biological control agent of citrus thrips (S. citri) than of citrus red mite (P. citri).     

Life history of the importedScymnus (Nephus) Reunioni [Col.: Coccinellidae] predator of mealybugs

The life history ofNephus reunioni, introduced from the Reunioni island has been studied. Optimum temperature for the development of the entomophagous insect is 24–25°C. In this case the population has the highest survival at preimaginal stages, life duration of adults and reproductive capacity. The rate of population growth was calculated by the formula:

The effect of time-varying mortality and carbon assimilation on models of carbon allocation in annual plants

Summary Models of optimal carbon allocation schedules have influenced the way plant ecologists think about life history evolution, particularly for annual plants. The present study asks (1) how, within the framework of these models, are their predictions affected by within-season variation in mortality and carbon assimilation rates?; and (2) what are the consequences of these prediction changes for empirical tests of the models? A companion paper examines the basic assumptions of the models themselves. I conducted a series of numerical experiments with a simple carbon allocation model. Results suggest that both qualitative and quantitative predictions can sometimes be sensitive to parameter values for net assimilation rate and mortality: for some parameter values, both the time and size at onset of reproduction, as well as the number of reproductive intervals, vary considerably as a result of small variations in these parameters. For other parameter values, small variations in the parameters result in only small changes in predicted phenotype, but these have very large fitness consequences. Satisfactory empirical tests are thus likely to require much accuracy in parameter estimates. The effort required for parameter estimation imposes a practical constraint on empirical tests, making large multipopulation comparisons impractical. It may be most practical to compare the predicted and observed fitness consequences of variation in the timing of onset of reproduction.     

Scaling physiological measurements for individuals of different body size

This paper examines how selected physiological performance variables, such as maximal oxygen uptake, strength and power, might best be scaled for subject differences in body size. The apparent dilemma between using either ratio standards or a linear adjustment method to scale was investigated by considering how maximal oxygen uptake (l.min-1), peak and mean power output (W) might best be adjusted for differences in body mass (kg). A curvilinear power function model was shown to be theoretically, physiologically and empirically superior to the linear models. Based on the fitted power functions, the best method of scaling maximum oxygen uptake, peak and mean power output, required these variables to be divided by body mass, recorded in the units kg 2/3. Hence, the power function ratio standards (ml.kg-2/3.min-1) and (W.kg-2/3) were best able to describe a wide range of subjects in terms of their physiological capacity, i.e. their ability to utilise oxygen or record power maximally, independent of body size. The simple ratio standards (ml.kg-1.min-1) and (W.kg-1) were found to best describe the same subjects according to their performance capacities or ability to run which are highly dependent on body size. The appropriate model to explain the experimental design effects on such ratio standards was shown to be log-normal rather than normal. Simply by taking logarithms of the power function ratio standard, identical solutions for the design effects are obtained using either ANOVA or, by taking the unscaled physiological variable as the dependent variable and the body size variable as the covariate, ANCOVA methods.     

Guild structure in solitary spider-hunting wasps (Hymenoptera: Pompilidae) compared with null model predictions

Abstract.

• 1 Three aspects of prey utilization are documented in a guild of spider-hunting pompilid wasps at a Breckland heath site: female phenology, size, and microhabitat utilization.
• 2 Twenty-four species were present at the site, 59% of the British fauna. Ten species individually represented more than 1% of the guild.
• 3 Pompilid abundance peaked in early July and mid-late August. Anoplius viaticus had a different life-history from other common guild members, making its inclusion in the guild questionable.
• 4 Most species represented by large samples occurred in all microhabitats and time intervals, and all species overlapped in size with all other species except A. viaticus. Arachnospila anceps was numerically dominant in all microhabitats and most time intervals.
• 5 Mean pair-wise overlaps in phenology and microhabitat utilization were significantly lower than predicted by null models, consistent with the idea that interspecific competition has been important in determining guild structure.
• 6 Female size is highly correlated with prey size, but the distribution of mean female sizes did not generally differ from null expectations.
• 7 Interpretation of comparisons with null models is problematic, particularly because it is difficult to quantify evolutionary ‘favourability’ of different resource states. Null models are currently of limited use because the patterns expected to result from key processes such as competition are uncertain in multi-dimensional systems.