Climate change disrupts core habitats of marine species

Driven by climate change, marine biodiversity is undergoing a phase of rapid change that has proven to be even faster than changes observed in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding how these changes in species composition will affect future marine life is crucial for conservation management, especially due to increasing demands for marine natural resources. Here, we analyse predictions of a multiparameter habitat suitability model covering the global projected ranges of >33,500 marine species from climate model projections under three CO₂ emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) up to the year 2100. Our results show that the core habitat area will decline for many species, resulting in a net loss of 50% of the core habitat area for almost half of all marine species in 2100 under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. As an additional consequence of the continuing distributional reorganization of marine life, gaps around the equator will appear for 8% (RCP2.6), 24% (RCP4.5), and 88% (RCP8.5) of marine species with cross-equatorial ranges. For many more species, continuous distributional ranges will be disrupted, thus reducing effective population size. In addition, high invasion rates in higher latitudes and polar regions will lead to substantial changes in the ecosystem and food web structure, particularly regarding the introduction of new predators. Overall, our study highlights that the degree of spatial and structural reorganization of marine life with ensued consequences for ecosystem functionality and conservation efforts will critically depend on the realized greenhouse gas emission pathway.     

Filter-feeding gelatinous macrozooplankton response to climate change and implications for benthic food supply and global carbon cycle

It is often suggested that gelatinous zooplankton may benefit from anthropogenic pressures of all kinds and in particular from climate change. Large pelagic tunicates, for example, are likely to be favored over other types of macrozooplankton due to their filter-feeding mode, which gives them access to small preys thought to be less affected by climate change than larger preys. In this study, we provide model-based estimate of potential community changes in macrozooplankton composition and estimate for the first time their effects on benthic food supply and on the ocean carbon cycle under two 21st-century climate-change scenarios. Forced with output from an Earth System Model climate projections, our ocean biogeochemical model simulates a large reduction in macrozooplankton biomass in response to anthropogenic climate change, but shows that gelatinous macrozooplankton are less affected than nongelatinous macrozooplankton, with global biomass declines estimated at −2.8% and −3.5%, respectively, for every 1°C of warming. The inclusion of gelatinous macrozooplankon in our ocean biogeochemical model has a limited effect on anthropogenic carbon uptake in the 21st century, but impacts the projected decline in particulate organic matter fluxes in the deep ocean. In subtropical oligotrophic gyres, where gelatinous zooplankton dominate macrozooplankton, the decline in the amount of organic matter reaching the seafloor is reduced by a factor of 2 when gelatinous macrozooplankton are considered (−17.5% vs. −29.7% when gelatinous macrozooplankton are not considered, all for 2100 under RCP8.5). The shift to gelatinous macrozooplankton in the future ocean therefore buffers the decline in deep carbon fluxes and should be taken into account when assessing potential changes in deep carbon storage and the risks that deep ecosystems may face when confronted with a decline in their food source.     

Recolonization following past persecution questions the importance of persistent snow cover as a range limiting factor for wolverines

Globally, climate is changing rapidly, which causes shifts in many species' distributions, stressing the need to understand their response to changing environmental conditions to inform conservation and management. Northern latitudes are expected to experience strongest changes in climate, with milder winters and decreasing snow cover. The wolverine (Gulo gulo) is a circumpolar, threatened carnivore distributed in northern tundra, boreal, and subboreal habitats. Previous studies have suggested that wolverine distribution and reproduction are constrained by a strong association with persistent spring snow cover. We assess this hypothesis by relating spatial distribution of 1589 reproductive events, a fitness-related proxy for female reproduction and survival, to snow cover over two decades. Wolverine distribution has increased and number of reproductive events increased 20 times in areas lacking spring snow cover during our study period, despite low monitoring effort where snow is sparse. Thus, the relationship between reproductive events and persistent spring snow cover weakened during this period. These findings show that wolverine reproductive success and hence distribution are less dependent on spring snow cover than expected. This has important implications for projections of future habitat availability, and thus distribution, of this threatened species. Our study also illustrates how past persecution, or other factors, that have restricted species distribution to remote areas can mask actual effects of environmental parameters, whose importance reveals when populations expand beyond previously restricted ranges. Overwhelming evidence shows that climate change is affecting many species and ecological processes, but forecasting potential consequences on a given species requires longitudinal data to revisit hypotheses and reassess the direction and magnitude of climate effects with new data. This is especially important for conservation-oriented management of species inhabiting dynamic systems where environmental factors and human activities interact, a common scenario for many species in different ecosystems around the globe.     

Long-term changes in Noctiluca scintillans blooms along the Chinese coast from 1933 to 2020

Noctiluca scintillans is one of the most common harmful algal species and widely known due to its bioluminescence. In this study, the spatial distribution, seasonal variations, and long-term trends of N. scintillans blooms in China and the related drivers were analyzed and discussed. From 1933 to 2020, a total of 265 events of N. scintillans blooms were recorded in Chinese coastal waters, with a total duration of 1052 days. The first N. scintillans bloom occurred in Zhejiang in 1933, and only three events were recorded before 1980. From 1981 to 2020, N. scintillans caused harmful algal blooms (HABs) almost every year, both the average duration and the proportion of multiphase HABs showed an increasing trend. 1986–1992, 2002–2004, and 2009–2016 were the three peak periods with a frequency of no less than five events of N. scintillans blooms per year. In terms of spatial distribution, N. scintillans blooms spread from the Southeast China Sea to the Bohai Sea after 2000, Guangdong, Fujian, and Hebei were the three provinces with the highest numbers of recorded events of N. scintillans blooms. Moreover, 86.8% of the events of N. scintillans blooms occurred in spring (March, April, and May) and summer (June, July, and August). Among environmental factors, the dissolved inorganic phosphate, dissolved silicate and chemical oxygen demand were significantly correlated with the cell density of N. scintillans during N. scintillans blooms, and most of N. scintillans blooms were recorded in the temperature range of 18.0–25.0°C. Precipitation, hydrodynamics, water temperature, and food availability might be the main factors affecting the spatial–temporal distribution of N. scintillans blooms along the Chinese coast.     

Change in climatically suitable breeding distributions reduces hybridization potential between Vermivora warblers

Aim

Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and subsequent biotic interactions, including hybridization potential. The imperiled Golden-winged Warbler (GWWA) competes and hybridizes with the Blue-winged Warbler (BWWA), which may threaten the persistence of GWWA due to introgression. We examined how climate change is likely to alter the breeding distributions and potential for hybridization between GWWA and BWWA.

Location

North America.

Methods

We used GWWA and BWWA occurrence data to model climatically suitable conditions under historical and future climate scenarios. Models were parameterized with 13 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables. Using ensemble modeling, we estimated historical and modern distributions, as well as a projected distribution under six future climate scenarios. We quantified breeding distribution area, the position of and amount of overlap between GWWA and BWWA distributions under each climate scenario. We summarized the top explanatory variables in our model to predict environmental parameters of the distributions under future climate scenarios relative to historical climate.

Results

GWWA and BWWA distributions are projected to substantially change under future climate scenarios. GWWA are projected to undergo the greatest change; the area of climatically suitable breeding season conditions is expected to shift north to northwest; and range contraction is predicted in five out of six future climate scenarios. Climatically suitable conditions for BWWA decreased in four of the six future climate scenarios, while the distribution is projected to shift east. A reduction in overlapping distributions for GWWA and BWWA is projected under all six future climate scenarios.

Main Conclusions

Climate change is expected to substantially alter the area of climatically suitable conditions for GWWA and BWWA, with the southern portion of the current breeding ranges likely to become climatically unsuitable. However, interactions between BWWA and GWWA are expected to decline with the decrease in overlapping habitat, which may reduce the risk of genetic introgression.     

Geographic differences in Blainville's beaked whale (Mesoplodon densirostris) echolocation clicks

Aim

Understanding cetacean species' distributions and population structure over space and time is necessary for effective conservation and management. Geographic differences in acoustic signals may provide a line of evidence for population-level discrimination in some cetacean species. We use acoustic recordings collected over broad spatial and temporal scales to investigate whether global variability in echolocation click peak frequency could elucidate population structure in Blainville's beaked whale (Mesoplodon densirostris), a cryptic species well-studied acoustically.

Location

North Pacific, Western North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.

Time period

2004–2021.

Major taxa studied

Blainville's beaked whale.

Methods

Passive acoustic data were collected at 76 sites and 150 cumulative years of data were analysed to extract beaked whale echolocation clicks. Using an automated detector and subsequent weighted network clustering on spectral content and interclick interval of clicks, we determined the properties of a primary cluster of clicks with similar characteristics per site. These were compared within regions and across ocean basins and evaluated for suitability as population-level indicators.

Results

Spectral averages obtained from primary clusters of echolocation clicks identified at each site were similar in overall shape but varied in peak frequency by up to 8 kHz. We identified a latitudinal cline, with higher peak frequencies occurring in lower latitudes.

Main conclusions

It may be possible to acoustically delineate populations of Blainville's beaked whales. The documented negative correlation between signal peak frequency and latitude could relate to body size. Body size has been shown to influence signal frequency, with lower frequencies produced by larger animals, which are subsequently more common in higher latitudes for some species, although data are lacking to adequately investigate this for beaked whales. Prey size and depth may shape frequency content of echolocation signals, and larger prey items may occur in higher latitudes, resulting in lower signal frequencies of their predators.     

Extinction risk of Chinese angiosperms varies between woody and herbaceous species

Aim

Understanding how species' traits and environmental contexts relate to extinction risk is a critical priority for ecology and conservation biology. This study aims to identify and explore factors related to extinction risk between herbaceous and woody angiosperms to facilitate more effective conservation and management strategies and understand the interactions between environmental threats and species' traits.

Location

China.

Taxon

Angiosperms.

Methods

We obtained a large dataset including five traits, six extrinsic variables, and 796,118 occurrence records for 14,888 Chinese angiosperms. We assessed the phylogenetic signal and used phylogenetic generalized least squares regressions to explore relationships between extinction risk, plant traits, and extrinsic variables in woody and herbaceous angiosperms. We also used phylogenetic path analysis to evaluate causal relationships among traits, climate variables, and extinction risk of different growth forms.

Results

The phylogenetic signal of extinction risk differed among woody and herbaceous species. Angiosperm extinction risk was mainly affected by growth form, altitude, mean annual temperature, normalized difference vegetation index, and precipitation change from 1901 to 2020. Woody species' extinction risk was strongly affected by height and precipitation, whereas extinction risk for herbaceous species was mainly affected by mean annual temperature rather than plant traits.

Main conclusions

Woody species were more likely to have higher extinction risks than herbaceous species under climate change and extinction threat levels varied with both plant traits and extrinsic variables. The relationships we uncovered may help identify and protect threatened plant species and the ecosystems that rely on them.     

Is drift ‘directional’? Unequal breeding sex ratio revisited

Unequal breeding sex ratio can significantly reduce effective population size, allowing a rare neutral allele to jump to a high frequency through genetic drift. However, this one-way alteration to allele frequency appears inconsistent with the concept that drift is non-directional. Based on binomial sampling distribution, this study developed a method to directly and exhaustively measure drift by calculating the mean deviation of change in allele frequency, then applied it to cases of unequal breeding sex ratio. The result shows that, under those cases, (1) the mean deviation can always be divided into two halves that are equal in size but opposite in direction; (2) each half consists of one or several categories represented by various allele proportions in the rare sex; (3) this proportion is another factor that determines the outcome of drift, in addition to effective population size and allele frequency; (4) drift is non-directional on a global scale, but whether an allele will drift up or down can be predicted based on the above factors. This method enables us to dissect every component of the expected change in allele frequency caused by drift and to find out the combined effect of population size, allele frequency and allele proportion in the rarer sex under neutrality but unequal breeding sex ratio.     

The maintenance of genetic diversity under host–parasite coevolution in finite,structured populations

As a corollary to the Red Queen hypothesis, host–parasite coevolution has been hypothesized to maintain genetic variation in both species. Recent theoretical work, however, suggests that reciprocal natural selection alone is insufficient to maintain variation at individual loci. As highlighted by our brief review of the theoretical literature, models of host–parasite coevolution often vary along multiple axes (e.g. inclusion of ecological feedbacks or abiotic selection mosaics), complicating a comprehensive understanding of the effects of interacting evolutionary processes on diversity. Here we develop a series of comparable models to explore the effect of interactions between spatial structures and antagonistic coevolution on genetic diversity. Using a matching alleles model in finite populations connected by migration, we find that, in contrast to panmictic populations, coevolution in a spatially structured environment can maintain genetic variation relative to neutral expectations with migration alone. These results demonstrate that geographic structure is essential for understanding the effect of coevolution on biological diversity.     

福州地区桑白蚧发生动态和药剂防治试验

桑白蚧在福州地区一年发生4代．以雌成虫在寄主枝干上越冬．越冬代(第4代)一雌虫产卵量多的达278粒．少的36粒,平均171粒,比第2代产卵量多2．6倍．比第3代多4．5倍．药剂防治试验结果,在2龄幼蚧高峰期,用25％扑虱灵可温性粉剂1500倍液,40％氧化乐果乳油800-1000倍液和95%机油乳剂50—100倍液喷雾．防治效果可达90％左右．用25％扑虱是可湿性粉剂1000-1500倍液．喷酒幼蚕触杀试验和喷洒桑叶喂蚕胃毒试验结果．对幼蚕安全．用扑虱灵防治桑树上的桑白蚧,对养蚕业无不良影响。