A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

How does the cumulative impacts approach support Maritime Spatial Planning?

Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) needs to incorporate spatial information on human impacts. As human activities and uses increase in marine and coastal waters around the world, pressures in ecosystems are also increasing, leading to multiple adverse effects on different species and habitats. The European Directive on MSP aims to achieve an integrated approach to marine governance, whilst securing and maintaining the healthy status of marine and coastal waters, in accordance with the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. The latter requires Member States to develop assessments not only on pressures and impacts, but also on the state of the marine environment and then take measures towards reaching a Good Environmental Status by 2020.The Portuguese Maritime Spatial Plan – Plano de Ordenamento do Espaço Marítimo (POEM) was developed between 2009 and 2012. In 2014 a law establishing the Basis for the Spatial Planning and Management of the National Maritime Space was enacted and in 2015 the framework for the elaboration of a new national Maritime Spatial Plan, named Situation Plan, was established. Portugal will face, in the next five years, the challenge of planning and managing its marine space, whilst promoting its sustainable use and protection.This study adapted a cumulative effects assessment model to understand how the impacts from multiple threats affect the marine and coastal ecosystems and, how this information can be used to improve the management process. Information was gathered on intensity and distribution of activities and uses for the Portuguese continental subdivision marine area, quantified and mapped their cumulative impacts in marine ecosystems, and overlapped with the POEM. Results show that impacts are spreading from the coast up to the Contiguous Zone. Higher scores appear in Transitional and Coastal Waters in the north (Viana do Castelo/Figueira da Foz), centre (Peniche/Setúbal) and south (Lagos/Faro). In some areas with higher ranks, statutes of nature conservation are already in place, but potential activities may still occur on top of existing ones. This study shows that the adapted model is a helpful tool to clarify ocean planning, identify areas of potential conflicts among users and support the decision making process.     

Microsatellites from the vairone Leuciscus souffia (Pisces: Cyprinidae) and their application to closely related species

Eleven microsatellites were isolated from the vairone Leuciscus souffia (Risso 1826), an endangered fish that inhabits river systems in and around the Alps in Europe. The level of genetic diversity was assessed in 29 individuals of the subspecies L. s. souffia, and their variability was further estimated in seven individuals of a different subspecies, L. s. muticellus. Eight of these microsatellite loci were also applied to seven closely related cyprinid species. Availability of the reported microsatellite loci will facilitate the investigation of population genetic structure of these species with applications for the development of conservation strategies and phylogeographical approaches.     

Can transposable element copy number distribution parameters be estimated from natural populations of Drosophila melanogaster?

The copy frequency distribution of a transposable element family in a Drosophila melanogaster natural population is generally characterised by the values of the Charlesworths' model parameters α and β (Charlesworth & Charlesworth, 1983). The estimation of these parameters is made using the observed distribution of the occupied sites in a population sample. Several results have been interpreted as due either to the influence of stochastic factors or to deterministic factors (transposition, excision, selection…). The accuracy of this method was tested by estimations performed on samples from simulated populations. The results show that with the sample size usually used for natural population studies, the confidence intervals are too large to reasonably deduce either the element copy number distribution or the values of transposition and excision rate and selective coefficients.     

Sugar‐feeding status alters biting midge photoattraction

The biting midge Culicoides sonorensis Wirth and Jones (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) transmits pathogens to both livestock and wildlife. Biting midge surveillance relies heavily on light traps for collection; however, little is known about the light spectra preferences of C. sonorensis midges. A light assay arena was constructed and light‐emitting diodes (LEDs) of various light spectra were used as light sources to evaluate midge photoattraction. A comparison of responses to light spectra indicated the highest proportions of C. sonorensis were attracted to ultraviolet (UV) light and that midges differentiated 10‐nm differences in wavelength. Stronger intensities of UV light resulted in greater attraction. Midges exhibited both sugar‐seeking and escape behaviours under different conditions of sugar supplementation before and during the experiment. These behaviours occurred with lights of 355 nm and 365 nm in wavelength. Based on the results of this study, the attraction of C. sonorensis to light traps can be improved through the use of bright LEDs at 355 nm or 365 nm.     

Cod Gadus morhua L. populations as behavioural units: inference from time series on juvenile abundance in the eastern Skagerrak

Abundance and distribution of cod Gadus morhua in various size intervals and age groups between 2000 and 2005 were followed in coastal trawl surveys. In spite of a reduction in fishing pressure in recent years and high cod recruitment in the Skagerrak region in 2001 and 2003, no recovery could be evidenced. The survey data clearly showed that low cod density areas were not recolonized, even though abundance of juvenile cod remained high for about a year after the recruitment episodes. Increased abundance of fish >400 mm total length was only discernible at some scattered locations where other studies also have suggested local populations still to be present. The intermittent high recruitment has been linked to an inflow of egg and larvae from the North Sea, a theory which also has gained support from genetic studies. It was thus argued that the disappearance of the juvenile cod from the inshore is an effect of a migratory behaviour; the fish of offshore origin eventually leave the coast for the open Skagerrak or the North Sea. These findings support a view on cod populations as essentially behavioural entities, whereas dispersal of early life stages may be less important as a structuring mechanism.     

Fish population structuring in the North Sea: understanding processes and mechanisms from studies of the movements of adults

Few fish species form single, panmictic populations throughout their geographic range, most form subpopulations or 'stocks' with differing levels of interconnectivity. Different patterns of interconnectivity between subpopulations will give rise to different responses to exploitation and management, but they will also have different capacities to generate the genetic and phenotypic differences often used to discriminate between stocks. Consequently, knowledge of ontogenetic and seasonal patterns in the distribution, movement and behaviour of individuals is crucial to identifying population substructure. This paper considers the evidence gathered about movements and behaviour of adult fishes from mark-recapture and electronic tagging studies for a number of fish species in the North Sea and elsewhere in U.K. waters in an attempt to understand population structure and the processes that may give rise to it.     

Gene flow between populations of two invertebrates in springs

1. Using allozymes, we analysed genetic structure of the freshwater gastropod Bythinella dunkeri and the freshwater flatworm Crenobia alpina. The two species are habitat specialists, living almost exclusively in springs. The sampled area in Hesse (Germany) covers a spatial scale of 20 km and includes two river drainages. From the biology of the two species we expected little dispersal along rivers. However, the possibility exists that groundwater provide suitable pathways for dispersal. 2. In B. dunkeri heterozygosity decreased from west to east. For some alleles we found clines in this geographic direction. These clines generated a positive correlation between geographic distance and genetic differentiation. Furthermore patterns of genetic variation within populations suggested that populations may have been faced with bottlenecks and founder effects. If populations are not in population genetic equilibrium, such founder effects would also explain the rather high amount of genetic differentiation between populations (10%). 3. For C. alpina the mean number of alleles decreased with increasing isolation of populations. Genetic differentiation between populations contributed 19% to the total genetic variation. Genetic differentiation was not correlated to geographic distance, but compared with B. dunkeri variability of pairwise differentiation between pairs of populations was higher in C. alpina. 4. Overall B. dunkeri appears to be a fairly good disperser, which may use groundwater as dispersal pathway. Furthermore populations seem to be not in equilibrium. In contrast C. alpina forms rather isolated populations with little dispersal between springs and groundwater seems to play no important role for dispersal.