流域管理决策支持系统研究进展

流域管理决策支持系统是为帮助流域管理者实现水资源优化配置而研发的智能系统,其模拟结果直接影响流域管理的科学性和实用性.本文从水量模拟和调配系统、水质监测和评价系统、流域综合管理系统三方面总结了国内外的相关研究,并分析了现存系统的特点和存在的问题,同时简要介绍AQUA-Tool、Elbe-DSS、HD等代表性系统的模型结构和发展现状.模拟结果精确稳定、工作流程简洁、用户可视化程度高是流域管理决策支持系统的研发重点,优化方案选择模型和三维可视化工具、研发跨流域综合管理系统、提高利益相关者的参与度是未来该领域的发展方向.     

The Pope in Mexico: Syncretism in Public Ritual

Pope John Paul II's canonization, in 2002, of Juan Diego, the Indian to whom the Virgin of Guadalupe first appeared, was variously interpreted by sections of Mexican society as an acknowledgement of the indigenous element in Mexican Catholicism and thus a restitution of past wrongs; conversely, as a final domestication of the Indian; and as an evangelical move against a resurgent Latin American Protestantism. The canonization rites were nested within political ceremonies staged, controversially, to anoint a new presidency. This broader political message was in turn challenged in the media and on the streets. In this article, I show how a major public event can articulate the life of a complex, culturally diverse society. I identify a syncretic effect produced by the struggle for ritual control. And I take a comparative view of syncretism, drawing on Javanese ethnography to suggest common mechanisms of meaning making.     

Creative Social Research: Rethinking Theories and Methods and the Calling of an Ontological Epistemology of Participation

Modern social research, as we know it now, emerged as a part of rise of modern social sciences in the context of transition to modernity. As an enterprise of modernity social research reflected some of the foundational assumptions of modernity. For example, the project of sociology was closely tied to the project of nation-state, embodying in its epistemology methodological nationalism. Social research also proceeded within the bounded logic of disciplines. But all these assumptions of modernity as well as their social manifestations have been subjected to fundamental criticisms and interrogations in the last decades. Both anti-systematic socio-cultural movements and critical discursive movements and new movements of ideas have challenged the modernist paradigms of pathology and normality as well as distinction between ontology and epistemology. In the background of critiques of modernity, social movements and processes of transformations the present essay submits some proposals for a creative and critical social research. It explores ways of moving beyond mere denunciations and critiques and embodying transformational theories and methods which would facilitate creative and critical research. The essay also calls for a new vocation of social research by pleading for a simultaneous engagement in activism and creative understanding, fieldwork and philosophical reflections, ontological self-cultivation and epistemic labour of learning. Ananta Kumar Giri originally from Madras Institute of Development Studies, Chennai, India is currently a Alexander von Humboldt Fellow at Institute of Sociology, Albert Ludwig Univesitat, Freiburg, Germany. The present essay builds upon author’s introduction to his recently edited volume, Creative Social Research: Rethinking Theories and Methods (Lanham, MD, USA: Lexington Books, 2004 & New Delhi. Sage, 2004. This has benefited from presentations in many different places, most recently at the Ernest Gellenr seminar series in Prague and Institute of Sociology, Freiburg, and my grateful to thanks are due to participants in all these places of dialogues, particularly to Professors Chitta Ranjan Das , Peter Skalnik and Hermann Shwengel.     

Capitalist Contexts for Darwinian Theory: Land, Finance, Industry and Empire

When socio-economic contexts are sought for Darwin’s science, it is customary to turn to the Industrial Revolution. However, important issues about the long run of England’s capitalisms can only be recognised by taking a wider view than Industrial Revolution historiographies tend to engage. The role of land and finance capitalisms in the development of the empire is one such issue. If we historians of Darwin’s science allow ourselves a distinction between land and finance capitalisms on the one hand and industrial capitalism on the other; and if we ask with which side of this divide were Darwin and his theory of branching descent by natural selection aligned, then reflection on leading features of that theory, including its Malthusian elements, suggests that the answer is often and largely, though not exclusively: on the land side. The case of Wallace, socialist opponent of land capitalism, may not be as anomalous for this suggestion as one might at first think. Social and economic historians have reached no settled consensuses on the long-run of England’s capitalisms. We historians of Darwin’s science would do well to import some of these unsettled states of discussion into our own work over the years to come.     

Why are (the best) women so good at chess? Participation rates and gender differences in intellectual domains

A popular explanation for the small number of women at the top level of intellectually demanding activities from chess to science appeals to biological differences in the intellectual abilities of men and women. An alternative explanation is that the extreme values in a large sample are likely to be greater than those in a small one. Although the performance of the 100 best German male chess players is better than that of the 100 best German women, we show that 96 per cent of the observed difference would be expected given the much greater number of men who play chess. There is little left for biological or cultural explanations to account for. In science, where there are many more male than female participants, this statistical sampling explanation, rather than differences in intellectual ability, may also be the main reason why women are under-represented at the top end.     

Urbanization in Southeast Asia: Assessing Policy Process and Progress toward Sustainability

In investigating the relationship between urbanization and sustainability in cities of developing countries, many researchers have looked to rising incomes as a driver for environmental improvement. This article challenges the transition and evolutionary models of urban environmental development that suggest that as cities grow in per capita income, their local environmental problems will diminish. The transition model is outcomes-based, and a competing model based on greater attention to participation in setting sustainability goals and assessing the progress toward those goals is presented.
Consensus on appropriate sustainability indicators is a key element, albeit a challenging one, in the task of pursuing urban sustainability. This is due to the contested nature of the concept of sustainability and also the fact that much of the work done on sustainability has been conducted among countries or on a national scale. A brief review of health, urban transport, air quality, and sewerage indicators suggests that cities do not necessarily see more progress as the per capita income increases. Low-income cities in Southeast Asia that are performing well are likely to see a deterioration in standards with rapid economic and population growth.     

Party political preferences of US Hispanics: The varying impact of religion,social class and demographic factors

The focus of this article is the pattern of party political preferences among the fast‐growing and increasingly politically significant Hispanic population. The source of our data is the 1990 City University of New York [CUNY] National Survey of Religious Identification, a nationally representative sample that includes 4,868 Hispanic adult respondents. One unique aspect of our large data set is that for the first time we disaggregate the one‐third who are Protestant and of No Religion from the Roman Catholic majority of Hispanics in order to see how religious identification affects political outlook. We found that Hispanics are most likely to be Democrats: 41 per cent, compared with 27 per cent who identified as Independents and 24 per cent as Republicans. Our research suggests that Hispanics are rapidly adopting mainstream American political characteristics. As a whole, the Hispanic population politically resembles non‐Hispanic white America more closely than it does black America. Among Hispanics, Protestantism and higher income favour the Republicans, and femaleness and older age assist the Democrats. The local political environment and individual social attributes are the determining factors in Hispanic political preferences. In fact, the geographical variable, state of residency, has the strongest effect on Democratic Party preference in the multivariate analysis. Overall, the dynamics of social trends among Hispanics seem to favour the Republican Party.     

Life cycle assessment of fuel cell vehicles a methodology example of input data treatment for future technologies

Life cycle assessment (LCA) will always involve some subjectivity and uncertainty. This reality is especially true when the analysis concerns new technologies. Dealing with uncertainty can generate richer information and minimize some of the result mismatches currently encountered in the literature. As a way of analyzing future fuel cell vehicles and their potential new fuels, the Fuel Upstream Energy and Emission Model (FUEEM) developed at the University of California—Davis, pioneered two different ways to incorporate uncertainty into the analysis. First, the model works with probabilistic curves as inputs and with Monte Carlo simulation techniques to propagate the uncertainties. Second, the project involved the interested parties in the entire process, not only in the critical review phase. The objective of this paper is to present, as a case study, the tools and the methodologies developed to acquire most of the knowledge held by interested parties and to deal with their — eventually conflicted—interests. The analysis calculation methodology, the scenarios, and all assumed probabilistic curves were derived from a consensus of an international expert network discussion, using existing data in the literature along with new information collected from companies. The main part of the expert discussion process uses a variant of the Delphi technique, focusing on the group learning process through the information feedback feature. A qualitative analysis indicates that a higher level of credibility and a higher quality of information can be achieved through a more participatory process. The FUEEM method works well within technical information and also in establishing a reasonable set of simple scenarios. However, for a complex combination of scenarios, it will require some improvement. The time spent in the process was the major drawback of the method and some alternatives to share this time cost are suggested.     

The Political Economy of the Ecological Native

In Chimalapas, Mexico, nongovernmental actors attempted to integrate campesinos into the discourse and practices of the Western environmental movement. The political economy school of anthropology assumes that cultural identity and practice flow from historical experiences grounded in relevant national and institutional contexts. In this article, I argue that although the movement in Chimalapas drew from the well-developed symbolic toolkit of the environmental movement, it was not able to create a space for local concerns within a transnational agenda that was already fairly well established and inflexible. Political ecology was the hinge of this movement: a political-economic analysis that validated traditional agrarian concerns in Chimalapas but included an environmentalist discourse legible to international funders. In this way, environmentalists in Chimalapas attempted both to create new practices and to link old practices to new expressions of culture and identity.     

Globalization and Migration: Post-Colonial Dutch Antillean and Aruban Immigrant Political Incorporation in the Netherlands

For much of its colonial history, the Netherlands experienced little contact with its island possessions in the Caribbean. Subsequent Dutch policy was formulated in the shadow of the Netherlands primary concern with its prosperous colony of Indonesia. The 1985 closing of the oil refineries in Aruba and Curacao, Netherlands Antilles and Aruba’s “status aparte” in 1986 triggered a mass migration from those Dutch “overseas countries” to the Netherlands. These recent migrations of thousands of Dutch post-colonial citizens have added to the Dutch reevaluation of its colonial past and debates about its multicultural democratic future.