Assessing the skill of yes/no predictions

Summary Should healthy, middle‐aged women receive precautionary mammograms? Should trauma surgeons use the popular TRISS score to predict the likelihood of patient survival? These are examples of questions confronting us when we decide whether to use a yes/no prediction. In order to trust a prediction we must show that it is more valuable than would be our best guess of the future in the absence of the prediction. Calculating value means identifying our loss should the prediction err and examining the past performance of the prediction with respect to that loss. A statistical test to do this is developed. Predictions that pass this test are said to have skill. Only skillful predictions should be used. Graphical and numerical methods to identify skill will be demonstrated. The usefulness of mammograms is explored.     

密度制约作用对箭叶淫羊藿有性繁殖时期形态特征的影响

运用回归分析和非参数检验方法,研究了箭叶淫羊藿(Epimedium sagittatum)在有性繁殖的三个时期克隆片段密度对其各个形态特征的影响,以揭示其资源和繁殖投资情况。结果表明：箭叶淫羊藿在三个有性繁殖期间克隆片段密度对其各个形态特征的影响显著。从回归分析的R2指数来看,其克隆片段密度增大对三个生长时期的制约作用是由弱到强,同时在有性繁殖期间随克隆片段密度的增加其资源投资趋向于有性繁殖;从非参数检验结果来看,有性繁殖期间箭叶淫羊藿明显增加其叶数、叶宽等来获取更多的资源用于提高其繁殖能力,以取得生存。     

Genome‐wide association study identifies loci associated with liability to alcohol and drug dependence that is associated with variability in reward‐related ventral striatum activity in African‐ and European‐Americans

Genetic influences on alcohol and drug dependence partially overlap, however, specific loci underlying this overlap remain unclear. We conducted a genome‐wide association study (GWAS) of a phenotype representing alcohol or illicit drug dependence (ANYDEP) among 7291 European‐Americans (EA; 2927 cases) and 3132 African‐Americans (AA: 1315 cases) participating in the family‐based Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism. ANYDEP was heritable (h ² in EA = 0.60, AA = 0.37). The AA GWAS identified three regions with genome‐wide significant (GWS; P < 5E‐08) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on chromosomes 3 (rs34066662, rs58801820) and 13 (rs75168521, rs78886294), and an insertion‐deletion on chromosome 5 (chr5:141988181). No polymorphisms reached GWS in the EA. One GWS region (chromosome 1: rs1890881) emerged from a trans‐ancestral meta‐analysis (EA + AA) of ANYDEP, and was attributable to alcohol dependence in both samples. Four genes (AA: CRKL, DZIP3, SBK3; EA: P2RX6) and four sets of genes were significantly enriched within biological pathways for hemostasis and signal transduction. GWS signals did not replicate in two independent samples but there was weak evidence for association between rs1890881 and alcohol intake in the UK Biobank. Among 118 AA and 481 EA individuals from the Duke Neurogenetics Study, rs75168521 and rs1890881 genotypes were associated with variability in reward‐related ventral striatum activation. This study identified novel loci for substance dependence and provides preliminary evidence that these variants are also associated with individual differences in neural reward reactivity. Gene discovery efforts in non‐European samples with distinct patterns of substance use may lead to the identification of novel ancestry‐specific genetic markers of risk.     

Factors affecting population regulation of a colonial vulture

Two hypotheses have been proposed to link population regulation to density‐dependent changes in demographical parameters: the habitat heterogeneity hypothesis (HHH) states that, as population density rises, an increasing proportion of individuals are forced to occupy low‐quality territories, which provokes a decline in average per‐capita survival and/or productivity although some individuals show no decline in fecundity; and the individual adjustment hypothesis (IAH), which suggests that increased densities lead to reductions in survival and/or fecundity by enhancing agonistic interactions, which affect all individuals to a similar extent. However, density‐dependent effects can be affected by density‐independent factors (DIF), such as weather. We test the effects of density dependence on annual reproductive success in Griffon Vultures Gyps fulvus at four spatial scales, nest‐site, cliff, colony and metacolony, in northern Spain from 2008 to 2015. Our results showed most support for the HHH at all scales. At the colony and cliff scale, IAH and DIF had similar importance, whereas there was little evidence of IAH at the metacolony and the nest scale. The best protected eyries (caves, potholes and sheltered ledges) produced the most fledglings and were used preferentially, whereas low‐quality eyries (exposed ledges or open crevices) were used only when the number of breeders increased. The significant interaction between breeding failure and density found for the more exposed eyries suggests that at higher densities, breeding pairs are forced to use poorer nesting areas, and the negative effect of density at the cliff scale could be due to the combined effect of a higher proportion of pairs using low‐quality eyries and the negative effect of rainfall.     

Coexistence of nitrifiers, denitrifiers and Anammox bacteria in a sequencing batch biofilm reactor as revealed by PCR-DGGE

Aims:  The bacterial diversity in a sequencing batch biofilm reactor (SBBR) treating landfill leachate was studied to explain the mechanism of nitrogen removal.
Methods and Results:  The total microbial DNA was extracted from samples collected from landfill leachate and biofilm of the reactor with the removal efficiencies of NH₄⁺-N higher than 97% and that of chemical oxygen demand (determined by K₂Cr₂O₇, COD_Cr) higher than 86%. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) fingerprints based on total community 16S rRNA genes were analyzed with statistical methods, and excised DNA bands were sequenced. The results of phylogenetic analyses revealed high diversity within the SBBR biofilm community, and DGGE banding patterns showed that the community structure in the biofilm remained stable during the running period.
Conclusions:  A coexistence of nitrifiers, including ammonia-oxidizing bacteria and nitrite-oxidizing bacteria, denitrifiers, including aerobic or anaerobic denitrifying bacteria and Anammox bacteria were detected, which might be the real matter of high removal efficiencies of NH₄⁺-N and COD_Cr in the reactor.
Significance and Impact of the Study:  The findings in this study indicated that PCR-DGGE analysis could be used for microbial community detection as prior method, and the SBBR technique could provide preferable growing environment for bacteria with N removal function.     

茶树CsMYB123转录因子的克隆及表达特性研究

该实验以茶树品种‘紫娟’为试验材料,利用RT-PCR方法,从茶树cDNA中克隆得到一个R2R3-MYB型基因(CsMYB123)。生物信息学分析显示,CsMYB123基因的开放阅读框为915bp,编码304个氨基酸,蛋白分子量约34.07kD,理论等电点为8.69,含有2个保守的MYB结构域,编码1个R2R3-MYB蛋白;CsMYB123蛋白与拟南芥(Arabidopsis thaliana)MYB转录因子家族第五亚组的AtMYB123亲缘关系最近;CsMYB123属于亲水性蛋白,无N端信号肽,可能定位于细胞核上。荧光定量PCR分析表明,CsMYB123基因在茶树各组织的表达量大小依次为:一芽一叶第二叶第三叶第四叶老茎嫩茎,且在一芽一叶中的表达量是嫩茎的15.68倍;但CsMYB123的表达受IAA、ABA、ETH和GA3的抑制。花青素含量检测显示,茶树‘紫娟’各组织中花青素的含量高低依次为:第二叶一芽一叶第三叶第四叶嫩茎老茎,且第二叶和一芽一叶的含量分别为老茎的15倍和11倍。研究发现,CsMYB123基因在茶树‘紫娟’的新稍中高水平表达,且其表达模式与不同组织中的花青素含量呈较好的正相关关系,推测CsMYB123基因与茶树花青素合成的调控相关。     

Status,trends, and equilibrium abundance estimates of the translocated sea otter population in Washington State

Sea otters (Enhydra lutris kenyoni) historically occurred in Washington State, USA, until their local extinction in the early 1900s as a result of the maritime fur trade. Following their extirpation, 59 sea otters were translocated from Amchitka Island, Alaska, USA, to the coast of Washington, with 29 released at Point Grenville in 1969 and 30 released at La Push in 1970. The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife has outlined 2 main objectives for sea otter recovery: a target population level and a target geographic distribution. Recovery criteria are based on estimates of population abundance, equilibrium abundance (K), and geographic distribution; therefore, estimates of these parameters have important management implications. We compiled available survey data for sea otters in Washington State since their translocation (1977–2019) and fit a Bayesian state-space model to estimate past and current abundance, and equilibrium abundance at multiple spatial scales. We then used forward projections of population dynamics to explore potential scenarios of range recolonization and as the basis of a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the relative influence of movement behavior, frontal wave speed, intrinsic growth, and equilibrium density on future population recovery potential. Our model improves upon previous analyses of sea otter population dynamics in Washington by partitioning and quantifying sources of estimation error to estimate population dynamics, by providing robust estimates of K, and by simulating long-term population growth and range expansion under a range of realistic parameter values. Our model resulted in predictions of population abundance that closely matched observed counts. At the range-wide scale, the population size in our model increased from an average of 21 independent sea otters (95% CI = 13–29) in 1977 to 2,336 independent sea otters (95% CI = 1,467–3,359) in 2019. The average estimated annual growth rate was 12.42% and varied at a sub-regional scale from 6.42–14.92%. The overall estimated mean K density of sea otters in Washington was 1.71 ± 0.90 (SD) independent sea otters/km² of habitat (1.96 ± 1.04 sea otters/km², including pups), and estimated densities within the current range correspond on average to 87% of mean sub-regional equilibrium values (range = 66–111%). The projected value of K for all of Washington was 5,287 independent sea otters (95% CI = 2,488–8,086) and 6,080 sea otters including pups (95% CI = 2,861–9,300), assuming a similar range of equilibrium densities in currently un-occupied habitats. Sensitivity analysis of simulations of sea otter population growth and range expansion suggested that mean K density estimates in currently occupied sub-regions had the largest impact on predicted future population growth (r² = 0.52), followed by the rate of southward range expansion (r² = 0.26) and the mean K density estimate of currently unoccupied sub-regions to the south of the current range (r² = 0.04). Our estimates of abundance and sensitivity analysis of simulations of future population abundance and geographic range help determine population status in relation to population recovery targets and identify the most influential parameters affecting future population growth and range expansion for sea otters in Washington State.     

Isolation and characterization of dengue virus serotype 2 from the large dengue outbreak in Guangdong,China in 2014

Dengue has been well recognized as a global public health threat,but only sporadic epidemics and imported cases were reported in recent decades in China.Since July 2014,an unexpected large dengue outbreak has occurred in Guangdong province,China,resulting in more than 40000 patients including six deaths.To clarify and characterize the causative agent of this outbreak,the acute phase serum from a patient diagnosed with severe dengue was subjected to virus isolation and high-throughput sequencing(HTS).Traditional real-time RT-PCR and HTS with Ion Torrent PGM detected the presence of dengue virus serotype 2(DENV-2).A clinical DENV-2 isolate GZ05/2014 was obtained by culturing the patient serum in mosquito C6/36 cells.The complete genome of GZ05/2014 was determined and deposited in Gen Bank under the access number KP012546.Phylogenetic analysis based on the complete envelope gene showed that the newly DENV-2 isolate belonged to Cosmopolitan genotype and clustered closely with other Guangdong strains isolated in the past decade.No amino acid mutations that are obviously known to increase virulence or replication were identified throughout the genome of GZ05/2014.The high homology of Guangdong DENV-2 strains indicated the possibility of establishment of local DENV-2 circulation in Guangdong,China.These results help clarify the origin of this epidemic and predict the future status of dengue in China.     

The role of hemiparasitic plants: influencing tallgrass prairie quality,diversity, and structure

Wood betony, Orobanchaceae (Pedicularis canadensis) and bastard toadflax, Santalaceae (Comandra umbellata) are two root‐hemiparasitic plant species found in tallgrass prairie communities. Natural resource managers are interested in utilizing these species as “pseudograzers” in grasslands to reduce competitively dominant grasses and thereby increase ecological diversity and quality in prairie restorations and urban plantings. We performed an observational field study at 5 tallgrass prairie sites to investigate the association of hemiparasite abundance with metrics of phylogenetic and ecological diversity, as well as floristic quality. Although no reduction in C₄ grasses was detected, there was a significant association between hemiparasite abundance and increased floristic quality at all 5 sites. Hemiparasite abundance and species richness were positively correlated at one restoration site. In a greenhouse mesocosm experiment, we investigated response to parasitism by P. canadensis in 6 species representing different plant functional groups of the tallgrass prairie. The annual legume partridge pea, Fabaceae (Chamaecrista fasciculata) had the greatest significant dry biomass reduction among 6 host species, but the C₄ grass big bluestem, Poaceae (Andropogon gerardii) had significantly greater aboveground biomass when grown with the hemiparasite. Overall, host species biomass as a total community was significantly reduced in mesocosms, consistent with other investigations that demonstrate influence on community structure by hemiparasitic plant species. Although hemiparasites were not acting as pseudograzers, they have the potential to influence community structure in grassland restorations and remnants.     

我国首次发现的HIV-1和HIV-2双重感染样品中病毒部分基因的序列特征分析

上海市卫生检疫局送检了一例HIV - 1和HIV - 2抗体检测均呈阳性的双重感染样品 ,对其感染的HIV前病毒的 gag和env基因区进行了序列分析 ,首次阐明我国发现的HIV双重感染样品的HIV部分基因特征。从HIV感染者淋巴细胞 (peripheralbloodmononuclearcells,PBMC)中提取前病毒DNA ,分别使用HIV 1和HIV 2特异性引物用套式PCR扩增HIV 1和HIV 2的部分基因区。PCR产物不经克隆直接测序 ,经GenBank检索并使用GCG软件包进行序列分析。结果表明 ,其中感染的HIV 2毒株中gag基因区与德国株HI2PEI2KR相似 ,基因离散率仅为8 1% ,env基因C2 -V3区与来自几内亚比绍的HIV 2U0 5 35 8株最近 ,离散率为 13 0 4% ,在其 gp36区发现与HIV 2U0 5 35 8基因离散率为 10 6 3% ,两个毒株均属HIV 2中的A亚型。而其HIV 1型毒株在 gag和env区都与从尼日利亚分离的H92NG0 83株相似 ,属HIV 1的G亚型。本文首次对我国发现的HIV 2型毒株进行了主要基因区的序列分析 ,表明在非洲较常见的HIV 2A亚型和HIV 1G亚型毒株 ,已随援外劳工传入我国。