A Risk Elimination Coordination Method for Large Group Decision-Making in Natural Disaster Emergencies

ABSTRACT

In view of the risk characteristics of large group decision-making in emergencies and the difficultly in forming the decision scheme with low risk, the causes of generating risk in urgent group decisions are analyzed. The coordination framework for risk elimination in emergency decisions is constructed. The methods of risk measure and elimination for emergency decisions are proposed to construct the risk elimination coordination mechanism for emergency decisions so that the risk of emergency group decisions is gradually constringed to obtain the emergency decision scheme with risk degree low enough. Finally, an example case is used to validate the realization process and the validity of risk elimination coordination method and mechanism.     

Oxytocin modulates selection of allies in intergroup conflict

In intergroup competition and conflict, humans benefit from coalitions with strong partners who help them to protect their in-group and prevail over competing out-groups. Here, we link oxytocin, a neuropeptide produced in the hypothalamus, to ally selection in intergroup competition. In a double-blind placebo-controlled experiment, males self-administered oxytocin or placebo, and made selection decisions about six high-threat and six low-threat targets as potential allies in intergroup competition. Males given oxytocin rather than placebo viewed high-threat targets as more useful allies and more frequently selected them into their team than low-threat targets.     

When more equals less: overtraining inhibits perceptual learning owing to lack of wakeful consolidation

Performance on perceptual tasks usually improves with training. However, too much consecutive training can be detrimental. Repeated within-day testing or overtraining demonstrates the detrimental effects this has on perceptual learning. Consolidation of learnt information during sleep has the power to prevent such deficits in learning. However, little is known regarding the role of wakeful consolidation in preventing the effects of overtraining. Here, we report that perceptual deterioration may result from the disruption of early wakeful consolidation processes. Three groups were tested on day 1 and again 24 h later, on a motion discrimination task. Participants who had a 1 h break between the two training sessions on the first day displayed improved accuracy on the second day (i.e. learning). Subjects who only completed the first training session on day 1 also exhibited learning. However, individuals who completed two blocks without a break ('overtraining') showed no improvement in accuracy on day 2. Interestingly, changes in reaction times were not susceptible to the effects of overtraining, but instead speeded up as a function of total performed trials. These data suggest that effects of overtraining might be due to disruption of wakeful consolidation processes.     

Perception and apperception in autism: rejecting the inverse assumption

In addition to those with savant skills, many individuals with autism spectrum conditions (ASCs) show superior perceptual and attentional skills relative to the general population. These superior skills and savant abilities raise important theoretical questions, including whether they develop as compensations for other underdeveloped cognitive mechanisms, and whether one skill is inversely related to another weakness via a common underlying neurocognitive mechanism. We discuss studies of perception and visual processing that show that this inverse hypothesis rarely holds true. Instead, they suggest that enhanced performance is not always accompanied by a complementary deficit and that there are undeniable difficulties in some aspects of perception that are not related to compensating strengths. Our discussion emphasizes the qualitative differences in perceptual processing revealed in these studies between individuals with and without ASCs. We argue that this research is important not only in furthering our understanding of the nature of the qualitative differences in perceptual processing in ASCs, but can also be used to highlight to society at large the exceptional skills and talent that individuals with ASCs are able to contribute in domains such as engineering, computing and mathematics that are highly valued in industry.     

An integrative and functional framework for the study of animal emotion and mood

A better understanding of animal emotion is an important goal in disciplines ranging from neuroscience to animal welfare science. The conscious experience of emotion cannot be assessed directly, but neural, behavioural and physiological indicators of emotion can be measured. Researchers have used these measures to characterize how animals respond to situations assumed to induce discrete emotional states (e.g. fear). While advancing our understanding of specific emotions, this discrete emotion approach lacks an overarching framework that can incorporate and integrate the wide range of possible emotional states. Dimensional approaches that conceptualize emotions in terms of universal core affective characteristics (e.g. valence (positivity versus negativity) and arousal) can provide such a framework. Here, we bring together discrete and dimensional approaches to: (i) offer a structure for integrating different discrete emotions that provides a functional perspective on the adaptive value of emotional states, (ii) suggest how long-term mood states arise from short-term discrete emotions, how they also influence these discrete emotions through a bi-directional relationship and how they may function to guide decision-making, and (iii) generate novel hypothesis-driven measures of animal emotion and mood.     

A conceptual model of farmers' informational activity: a tool for improved support of livestock farming management

Farmers have been slow to adopt decision support system (DSS) models and their outputs, mainly owing to (i) the complexity of the data involved, which most potential users are unable to collect and process; and (ii) inability to integrate these models into real representations of their informational environments. This situation raises questions about the way farm management researchers have modelled information and information management, and especially about the quality of the information assessed by the farmers. We consider that to review advisory procedures we need to understand how farmers select and use farm management-related information, rather than focusing on decisions made in particular situations. The aim of this study was to build a conceptual model of the farmer-targeted farm management-related information system. This model was developed using data collected in commercial beef cattle farms. The design structure and operational procedures are based on (i) data categories representing the diversity of the informational activity; and (ii) selected criteria for supporting decisions. The model is composed of two subsystems, each composed of two units. First, an organizational subsystem organizes, finalizes and monitors informational activity. Second, a processing subsystem builds and exploits the informational resources. This conceptual model makes it possible to describe and understand the diverse range of farmers' informational activity by taking into account both the flow of information and the way farmers make sense of that information. This model could serve as a component of biodecisional DSS models for assigning information in the decision-making process. The next task will be to take into account the broad range of farmers' perceptions of the management situations in DSS models.     

2001至2005年全球处方药销售和新药研发趋势的分析

分析处方药市场动态和研发趋势将对我国“十一五”生物医药发展战略的确立提供有意义的参考。全球人用处方药市场近5年发展迅速,其销售额连续突破了4000亿、5000亿和6000亿美元等“多零”关节点,已经成为21世纪经济快车的重要引擎之一。世界50强和10强制药企业销售额合计分别占总额的70%～78%和42%～58%;2005年,50强和10强的研发投入分别约为750亿美元和450亿美元。年销售额超过10亿美元的“重磅炸弹”总数为94个,降血脂药物销售稳定地排在首位,抗肿瘤药物近2年增长最快,生物制品连续2年增长率大于17%。新批上市药物呈现了下降趋势。     

Evidence for deficiencies in perceptual and semantic olfactory processes in Parkinson's disease

Olfactory deficits have been reported in Parkinson's disease (PD) and are thought to represent a sensitive marker of the disease. The aim of the present study was to examine the differential contribution in olfactory dysfunction of perceptual and semantic processes of odours in PD patients. Twenty-four PD patients (12 males and 12 females) and 24 control subjects (12 males and 12 females) were tested. The experiment included two sessions. Initially, 12 odorants were delivered, one per minute. For each odour, subjects were asked to rate intensity, pleasantness, familiarity and edibility using linear rating scales. The odorants were again presented and the subjects were asked to identify them. The four olfactory judgements and odour identification were severely disturbed in PD patients when compared to control subjects. These findings demonstrate major deficits for all cognitive tasks of olfactory judgement in PD, and suggest that PD is associated with disruption of olfactory areas situated in the temporal lobes and also in the prefrontal cortex.     

Adaptive responses in Cypridopsis vidua (Crustacea: Ostracoda) to food and shelter offered by a macrophyte (Chara fragilis)

The ostracod Cypridopsis vidua prefers periphyton growing on Chara fragilis to other feeding substrates. This species actively searches for periphyton, scrapes it off from Chara stems and handles it with a well organized feeding technique. When exposed to different quantities of periphyton on Chara stems, C. vidua selects foraging sites according to their nutritional value. When exposed to low quantities of water from tanks containing fish, C. vidua responds to these weak chemical cues moving from uncovered areas into Chara plants. Experiments with juvenile cyprinids (Abramis brama) as predators and C. vidua as prey clearly showed that the presence of Chara reduces fish foraging success and that C. vidua survival rate increases with increasing density of Chara.     

Community action on water pollution

Actions to improve local water or air quality are likely to combine collective benefits with specific costs. This suggests that the variations among communities in their actions to improve water quality will involve opposition from industries bearing the specific costs. The use of Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-funded matching grants for sewerage construction by large U.S. cities varies inversely with the imputed opposition from polluting industries. Use also increases with assessed need and with the extent of certain resources, including the credit rating. Matching grants funded by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) are not likely to have such specific costs, and imputed opposition does not affect their distribution. When location and the growth rate are controlled, use of restrictions and surcharges on industrial wastes increases with imputed opposition. It is possible that industries influence the specific regulations. Alternative explanations of the statistical relationship between opposition and EPA grant use are discussed.This research was partially supported by Department of Commerce Grants 2-35227 and 04-3-158-45 to the University of Southern California Sea Grant Program.