The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees

Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate‐only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species‐specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns.     

Do geographic distribution,niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change?

We modelled the future distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa distributed among seven life forms, including new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies by: (i) using only endemic species as a way to capture the full realized niche of species, (ii) considering the direct impact of human pressure on landscape and biodiversity jointly with climate, and (iii) taking species' migration into account. Our analysis shows important promises for predicting the impacts of climate change in conjunction with land transformation. We have shown that the endemic flora of Southern Africa on average decreases with 41% in species richness among habitats and with 39% on species distribution range for the most optimistic scenario. We also compared the patterns of species' sensitivity with global change across life forms, using ecological and geographic characteristics of species. We demonstrate here that species and life form vulnerability to global changes can be partly explained according to species' (i) geographical distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients, like climate anomalies, (ii) niche breadth or (iii) proximity to barrier preventing migration. Our results confirm that the sensitivity of a given species to global environmental changes depends upon its geographical distribution and ecological proprieties, and makes it possible to estimate a priori its potential sensitivity to these changes.     

“互联网+”背景下医院挂号缴费模式的机遇与挑战

随着“互联网+”的推广及普遍应用,基于互联网的信息技术在医疗服务行业迅速发展。网络预约挂号和移动支付等挂号缴费新模式的推行为解决医院“三长一短”的问题带来了新的契机。通过对“互联网+”背景下医院在挂号、缴费等方面的现状研究,提出了新模式下可能存在的问题及改进建议。

     

医疗保险费用支付方式改革对医院管理的影响

医疗保险支付方式是医疗保险制度的核心内容之一，它涉及医、患、保三方，是医疗保险过程中涉及各方经济利益的最直接、最敏感的环节。随着医疗保险制度的普及、医疗费用的快速增长，改革医疗保险支付方式已势在必行。疾病诊断相关组预付法是医疗保险支付方式改革的趋势，其实施将对医院的经营管理有重大影响，涉及到医院管理的重点、医保支付相关科室的结构与职能的调整以及相关人员的培训等方面。     

五种TM影像大气校正模型在植被遥感中的应用

基于2005年7月18日广州市东北部和惠州市北部的TM影像,以表观反射率模型为参照,从植被反射率光谱、地物反射率统计特征、规一化植被指数三方面对4种黑体减法模型和6S模型在植被遥感中的应用进行了评价.结果表明：黑体减法模型DOS4获得了精度较高的植被反射率,其地物反射率与规一化植被指数的信息量最大,适用于研究区的植被遥感研究.对于不同区域的植被遥感研究需要进行具体的比较分析,才能选择到合适的大气校正模型.     

国外诊断相关组付费制度与医疗服务质量关系研究述评

通过理论分析和文献综述,介绍此付费制度与医疗服务质量关系的研究现状,探讨了一些国家通过引入医疗机构提供能力、医疗服务质量评价标准及全面质量管理观念等措施,对制度进行改良的实践效果,对我国医疗付费制度的改革和优化具有重要的启示意义。     

Threats and opportunities for freshwater conservation under future land use change scenarios in the United States

Freshwater ecosystems provide vital resources for humans and support high levels of biodiversity, yet are severely threatened throughout the world. The expansion of human land uses, such as urban and crop cover, typically degrades water quality and reduces freshwater biodiversity, thereby jeopardizing both biodiversity and ecosystem services. Identifying and mitigating future threats to freshwater ecosystems requires forecasting where land use changes are most likely. Our goal was to evaluate the potential consequences of future land use on freshwater ecosystems in the coterminous United States by comparing alternative scenarios of land use change (2001–2051) with current patterns of freshwater biodiversity and water quality risk. Using an econometric model, each of our land use scenarios projected greater changes in watersheds of the eastern half of the country, where freshwater ecosystems already experience higher stress from human activities. Future urban expansion emerged as a major threat in regions with high freshwater biodiversity (e.g., the Southeast) or severe water quality problems (e.g., the Midwest). Our scenarios reflecting environmentally oriented policies had some positive effects. Subsidizing afforestation for carbon sequestration reduced crop cover and increased natural vegetation in areas that are currently stressed by low water quality, while discouraging urban sprawl diminished urban expansion in areas of high biodiversity. On the other hand, we found that increases in crop commodity prices could lead to increased agricultural threats in areas of high freshwater biodiversity. Our analyses illustrate the potential for policy changes and market factors to influence future land use trends in certain regions of the country, with important consequences for freshwater ecosystems. Successful conservation of aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem services in the United States into the future will require attending to the potential threats and opportunities arising from policies and market changes affecting land use.     

FATE‐HD: a spatially and temporally explicit integrated model for predicting vegetation structure and diversity at regional scale

During the last decade, despite strenuous efforts to develop new models and compare different approaches, few conclusions have been drawn on their ability to provide robust biodiversity projections in an environmental change context. The recurring suggestions are that models should explicitly (i) include spatiotemporal dynamics; (ii) consider multiple species in interactions and (iii) account for the processes shaping biodiversity distribution. This article presents a biodiversity model (FATE‐HD) that meets this challenge at regional scale by combining phenomenological and process‐based approaches and using well‐defined plant functional groups. FATE‐HD has been tested and validated in a French National Park, demonstrating its ability to simulate vegetation dynamics, structure and diversity in response to disturbances and climate change. The analysis demonstrated the importance of considering biotic interactions, spatio‐temporal dynamics and disturbances in addition to abiotic drivers to simulate vegetation dynamics. The distribution of pioneer trees was particularly improved, as were all undergrowth functional groups.     

The invasion route for an insect pest species: the tobacco aphid in the New World

Biological invasions are rapid evolutionary events in which populations are usually subject to a founder event during introduction followed by rapid adaptation to the new environment. Molecular tools and Bayesian approaches have shown their utility in exploring different evolutionary scenarios regarding the invasion routes of introduced species. We examined the situation for the tobacco aphid, Myzus persicae nicotianae, a recently introduced aphid species in Chile. Using seven microsatellite loci and approximate Bayesian computation, we studied populations of the tobacco aphid sampled from several American and European countries, identifying the most likely source populations and tracking the route of introduction to Chile. Our population genetic data are consistent with available historical information, pointing to an introduction route of the tobacco aphid from Europe and/or from other putative populations (e.g. Asia) with subsequent introduction through North America to South America. Evidence of multiple introductions to North America from different genetic pools, with successive loss of genetic diversity from Europe towards North America and a strong bottleneck during the southward introduction to South America, was also found. Additionally, we examined the special case of a widespread multilocus genotype that was found in all American countries examined. This case provides further evidence for the existence of highly successful genotypes or 'superclones' in asexually reproducing organisms.