Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change

Previous studies have focused on changes in the geographical distribution of terrestrial biomes and species targeted by marine capture fisheries due to climate change impacts. Given mariculture's substantial contribution to global seafood production and its growing significance in recent decades, it is essential to evaluate the effects of climate change on mariculture and their socio‐economic consequences. Here, we projected climate change impacts on the marine aquaculture diversity for 85 of the currently most commonly farmed fish and invertebrate species in the world's coastal and/or open ocean areas. Results of ensemble projections from three Earth system models and three species distribution models show that climate change may lead to a substantial redistribution of mariculture species richness potential, with an average of 10%–40% decline in the number of species being potentially suitable to be farmed in tropical to subtropical regions. In contrast, mariculture species richness potential is projected to increase by about 40% at higher latitudes under the ‘no mitigation policy’ scenario (RCP 8.5) by the mid‐21st century. In Exclusive Economic Zones where mariculture is currently undertaken, we projected an average future decline of 1.3% and 5% in mariculture species richness potential under RCP 2.6 (‘strong mitigation’) and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the 2050s relative to the 2000s. Our findings highlight the opportunities and challenges for climate adaptation in the mariculture sector through the redistribution of farmed species and expansion of mariculture locations. Our results can help inform adaptation planning and governance mechanisms to minimize local environmental impacts and potential conflicts with other marine and coastal sectors in the future.     

内蒙古典型草原地上净初级生产力对气候变化响应的模拟

利用内蒙古锡林浩特国家气候观象台1994～2009年牧草生长季逐月实测资料,对CENTURY模型进行检验,模拟内蒙古典型草原1953～2010年间地上净初级生产力(ANPP)动态,并与26个气象因子进行相关性分析。模型检验结果显示,模拟值与观测值之间的相关系数为R2=0.66,斜率b=0.95,误差平方根值为50.51g.m-2,平均绝对百分比误差为44.19%。结果表明:(1)CENTURY模型能比较准确地模拟这类草原的季节动态和年际变化;在过去的58年中,内蒙古典型草原温度增加,降水减少,ANPP下降;ANPP变化趋势与降水量相似。(2)用实际气象观测资料模拟获得的ANPP随气温和降水的变化呈现出明显的变化规律,生长季内地上生物量对降水和温度的季节性分布也非常敏感;相关分析进一步表明,ANPP对生长季内降水量和极端高温非常敏感,而与年极端最低气温、平均地面温度、日照时数、平均风速和最大积雪深度无显著相关关系;过去58年研究区ANPP下降是降水减少、温度升高以及干旱事件频发共同作用的结果。(3)根据预测,在SRES B2情景下,未来50～100年内蒙古典型草原生长季平均最高气温和最低气温都将呈升高趋势,2080s分别升高4.01℃、4.35℃,每10年增加速率分别为0.35℃和0.38℃;降水量略呈增加,2020s、2050s和2080s研究区生长季将分别增加3.17%、5.13%和7.03%,每10年增加速率为0.09mm;ANPP呈下降趋势年际间波动较大,2020s、2050s和2080s研究区将分别下降5.76%、7.52%和11.42%,每10年下降速率为0.76g.m-2。     

城市土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值影响的多情景模拟——以深圳市为例

深圳市作为粤港澳大湾区城市化水平最高、经济最为发达区域,其快速变化的土地利用方式对生态系统服务价值产生了深刻影响。基于1995—2015年深圳市土地利用和生态系统服务价值(ESV)变化规律,运用FLUS模型与ESV算法,设定自然发展、城市发展、耕地保护和生态保护4种情景,模拟不同情景下土地利用变化对ESV的影响。结果表明：(1) 1995—2015年转出量最高的地类是草地,草地与林地间存在密切相互转化关系,除建设用地外,其余地类均呈“入不敷出”态势;(2) 1995—2015年ESV总价值的下降趋势由迅猛变化为和缓,调节服务是深圳市最主要的生态系统服务功能,其次则是支持服务功能;(3)秉持粤港澳大湾区建设基本原则,以2035年为目标年,设定了自然发展、城市发展、耕地保护和生态保护四种情景,发现自然发展和城市发展的ESV总价值损失量较高,建筑面积的增加和草地面积的大规模减少成为两情景下生态系统服务价值减少的关键。生态保护情景下,虽然ESV总价值减少趋势并未有效遏制,但减少量明显少于其余三种情景,成为未来深圳市土地利用优化的最优情景。     

Scenarios of freshwater fish extinctions from climate change and water withdrawal

Reductions in river discharge (water availability) like those from climate change or increased water withdrawal, reduce freshwater biodiversity. We combined two scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change with a global hydrological model to build global scenarios of future losses in river discharge from climate change and increased water withdrawal. Applying these results to known relationships between fish species and discharge, we build scenarios of losses (at equilibrium) of riverine fish richness. In rivers with reduced discharge, up to 75% (quartile range 4–22%) of local fish biodiversity would be headed toward extinction by 2070 because of combined changes in climate and water consumption. Fish loss in the scenarios fell disproportionately on poor countries. Reductions in water consumption could prevent many of the extinctions in these scenarios.     

Selecting the best forest management alternative by aggregating ecosystem services indicators over time: A case study in central Spain

Sustainable forest management has been approached on many occasions by defining and subsequently measuring a set of initially accepted indicators. This methodology permits the aggregation of multiple goods and services with heterogeneous characteristics into forest management. However, the calculation of these indicators has usually been static. When we find ourselves in situations in which there is a need to make long-term evaluations of the effects of possible scenarios affecting forest management, a procedure has to be set up to define and aggregate the different indicators over time, as well as to integrate the preferences of the stakeholders involved in management.This study shows a goal programming-based methodology, which permits to select the best management alternative in 6 climate change scenarios when different indicators are aggregated over 100 years in a mountain forest in Central Spain. The results revealed the predominance of one management alternative (no management) when the preferences of the stakeholders were aggregated. However, when the preferential weights corresponding to some stakeholders were included separately, the solution may notably vary, especially in the case of forest owners. It was concluded that the methodology proposed allows a dynamic aggregation of diverse sustainable forest management in addition to presenting a great flexibility at the moment of selecting various solutions proposed by the goal programming model, and the preferences of the different stakeholders.     

Health Concerns Versus Mobile Data Needs: Conjoint Measurement of Preferences for Mobile Communication Network Scenarios

As demands for mobile broadband services and ubiquitous network coverage in our societies are increasing, the mobile communication network infrastructure has to be expanded. Concurrently, the technical infrastructure of mobile communication technologies (base stations) raises the public's concerns about health risks due to electromagnetic fields (EMF). By applying conjoint analyses, the study empirically investigates the relationship between mobile data demands, different base station locations, the prevalence of perceived health complaints, and the impact of compensation payments. Findings show that health concerns are the most critical factor for mobile network communication scenario preferences, followed by data rate availability. In the decision scenarios, base station location and compensation payments played a minor role. Two user groups, cellphone and smart phone users who differ in their sensitivity regarding health concerns and data demands, were identified by segmentation analysis. By means of a sensitivity analysis, different mobile communication network scenarios were analyzed. Outcomes show the importance of integrating users’ preferences into the design of mobile communication networks. This especially refers to an increased sensitivity regarding health concerns in cellphone users and minimum requirements for data rates at least sufficient for the usage of mobile Internet services for smart phone users.     

Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest

Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost‐effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red‐listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the intensity of climate change. Our results indicate that the Finnish landscape is likely to be dominated by a very high proportion of sensitive and susceptible forest patches, thereby increasing uncertainty for landscape managers in the choice of conservation strategies.     

Are Socioeconomic Benefits of Restoration Adequately Quantified? A Meta‐analysis of Recent Papers (2000–2008) in Restoration Ecology and 12 Other Scientific Journals

Many ecosystems have been transformed, or degraded by human use, and restoration offers an opportunity to recover services and benefits, not to mention intrinsic values. We assessed whether restoration scientists and practitioners use their projects to demonstrate the benefits restoration can provide in their peer‐reviewed publications. We evaluated a sample of the academic literature to determine whether links are made explicit between ecological restoration, society, and public policy related to natural capital. We analyzed 1,582 peer‐reviewed papers dealing with ecological restoration published between 1 January 2000 and 30 September 2008 in 13 leading scientific journals. As selection criterion, we considered papers that contained either “restoration” or “rehabilitation” in their title, abstract, or keywords. Furthermore, as one‐third of the papers were published in Restoration Ecology, we used that journal as a reference for comparison with all the other journals. We readily acknowledge that aquatic ecosystems are under‐represented, and that the largely inaccessible gray literature was ignored. Within these constraints, we found clear evidence that restoration practitioners are failing to signal links between ecological restoration, society, and policy, and are underselling the evidence of benefits of restoration as a worthwhile investment for society. We discuss this assertion and illustrate it with samples of our findings—with regards to (1) the geographical and institutional affiliations of authors; (2) the choice of ecosystems studied, methods employed, monitoring schemes applied, and the spatial scale of studies; and (3) weak links to payments for ecosystem service setups, agriculture, and ramifications for public policy.     

水源涵养型国家重点生态功能区生态系统服务功能评估

为评估“十二五”以来国家重点生态功能区转移支付政策的阶段性实施效果,以水源涵养类型国家重点生态功能区为对象,基于水量平衡法,利用2011年和2019年土地覆被数据,并结合气象数据,分析了水源涵养型国家重点生态功能区2011年和2019年水源涵养功能、生态系统面积、生态系统质量状况及其变化情况。研究结果表明,自2011年转移支付政策实施以来：1)全国水源涵养型重点生态功能区内的水源涵养能力呈现从西北部到东南部逐渐增加的空间分布趋势,2019年全国水源涵养型重点生态功能区水源涵养能力较2011年显著增加。2)全国水源涵养型重点生态功能区森林面积有所增加,湿地得到有效恢复。3)全国水源涵养重点生态功能区内生态系统质量提高,平均植被覆盖度有所增加,呈现东北部及中南部高,西北部低的分布趋势。总体来看,转移支付政策的实施对全国水源涵养重点生态功能区森林、草地生态系统水源涵养功能的提升发挥了积极作用,基本上达到了转移支付政策预期的阶段性目标。     

The ecological forecast horizon,and examples of its uses and determinants

Forecasts of ecological dynamics in changing environments are increasingly important, and are available for a plethora of variables, such as species abundance and distribution, community structure and ecosystem processes. There is, however, a general absence of knowledge about how far into the future, or other dimensions (space, temperature, phylogenetic distance), useful ecological forecasts can be made, and about how features of ecological systems relate to these distances. The ecological forecast horizon is the dimensional distance for which useful forecasts can be made. Five case studies illustrate the influence of various sources of uncertainty (e.g. parameter uncertainty, environmental variation, demographic stochasticity and evolution), level of ecological organisation (e.g. population or community), and organismal properties (e.g. body size or number of trophic links) on temporal, spatial and phylogenetic forecast horizons. Insights from these case studies demonstrate that the ecological forecast horizon is a flexible and powerful tool for researching and communicating ecological predictability. It also has potential for motivating and guiding agenda setting for ecological forecasting research and development.