Modelling the distribution of Aspalathus linearis (Rooibos tea): implications of climate change for livelihoods dependent on both cultivation and harvesting from the wild

Aspalathus linearis (Burm. f.) R. Dahlgren (rooibos) is endemic to the Fynbos Biome of South Africa, which is an internationally recognized biodiversity hot spot. Rooibos is both an invaluable wild resource and commercially cultivated crop in suitable areas. Climate change predictions for the region indicate a significant warming scenario coupled with a decline in winter rainfall. First estimates of possible consequences for biodiversity point to species extinctions of 23% in the long term in the Fynbos Biome. Bioclimatic modelling using the maximum entropy method was used to develop an estimate of the realized niche of wild rooibos and the current geographic distribution of areas suitable for commercially production. The distribution modelling provided a good match to the known distribution and production area of A. linearis. An ensemble of global climate models that assume the A2 emissions scenario of high energy requirements was applied to develop possible scenarios of range/suitability shift under future climate conditions. When these were extrapolated to a future climate (2041–2070) both wild and cultivated tea exhibited substantial range contraction with some range shifts southeastwards and upslope. Most of the areas where range expansion was indicated are located in existing conservation areas or include conservation worthy vegetation. These findings will be critical in directing conservation efforts as well as developing strategies for farmers to cope with and adapt to climate change.     

辽河三角洲滨海湿地景观规划各预案对指示物种生态承载力的影响

在对辽河三角洲滨海湿地进行景观规划"预案”设计以及相应的生境分析基础上,运用景观生态决策与评价支持系统(LEDESS-model)对指示物种丹顶鹤和黑嘴鸥繁殖生境的生态承载力进行了空间模拟和定量分析,结果表明在大规模农业开发的背景下,预案A通过湿地调整及生境补偿措施,不仅可以维持湿地生境面积"无净损失”(No-net-loss),而且可以相当程度地提高指示物种繁殖生境的生态承载力;预案B通过一系列减轻生境破碎化影响的生境管理措施,也显著地提高了丹顶鹤繁殖生境的生态承载力,但对黑嘴鸥繁殖生境的生态承载力的改善不如前者显著;预案C的模拟结果说明采取"滚动”开发模式,可以有效减轻区域农业开发对物种生境的负面影响,在本研究限定的开发规模下(8000hm2),对指示物种丹顶鹤、黑嘴鸥繁殖生境的生态承载力没有明显影响.     

矿区不同复垦措施对土壤碳矿化和酶活性的影响

矿区废弃地生态退化形势严峻,生态修复已成为矿区可持续发展的主要措施,目前关于矿区复垦后土壤碳矿化和酶活性变化的研究较少。以山西省孝义市露天矿区复垦区为研究对象,植被恢复类型包括了百脉根、苜蓿、油松和柳树-圆柏混交林,并对其分别进行不施肥(对照)、无机肥、复合肥和有机肥处理,从而研究植被类型与施肥方式对矿区土壤碳矿化和酶活性的影响。结果表明,乔本比草本恢复类型的土壤有机碳矿化潜势大,不同施肥条件的土壤有机碳矿化潜势和累积量趋势基本为:对照无机肥复合肥有机肥;4种土壤酶活性因植被恢复类型和施肥处理的不同而差异显著,不同土壤酶与降解特性不同的有机碳间相关性有所不同。土壤碳矿化累积量和酶活性均受植被恢复类型、施肥处理及两者交互作用的显著影响,因此对复垦措施敏感的土壤有机碳矿化和酶活性可作为评价复垦措施的指标。     

Decreasing deposition will reduce costs for nature management

In this paper, we present a method to estimate the additional costs made by nature reserve managers to mitigate the effects of atmospheric deposition. Theoretically, these extra costs may be saved when deposition levels drop. The costs were calculated per Nature Target Type (NTT) and management intensity for both the current (high) and reduced deposition levels. The resulting ecological quality was estimated in both cases. We calculated the difference in costs based on the management intensities required to maintain ecological quality at the current and reduced nitrogen deposition levels. For the NTTs within the clusters grassland, reed and rough land, and heathland we used dynamic simulation models. For forests and moorland pools we used expert knowledge to estimate the reduction in management costs due to a decrease in deposition. The total amount of money that may be saved because of the reduction of deposition rates is estimated at 42 million euro per year for the period from 2000 to 2020 for the assessed NTTs. The highest savings can be made in grasslands; 28 million euro. On average the savings were 80 €/ha/yr, which ranged from 5 €/ha/yr for forest to 299 €/ha/yr for reed and rough land.     

Global Scenarios: Background Review for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

The long-range outlook for the world’s ecosystems depends on the course taken by global development in the coming decades. Current global trends and ecological dynamics are consistent with very different outcomes, defined by alternative assumptions about the technological, economic, demographic, geopolitical, and social aspects of development and the ways in which institutions, personal and public values, and natural systems may be expected to respond to historically novel stressors. Recent advances in scenario analysis have addressed the dual methodological challenge of exploring these uncertainties in an organized way and determining what would be needed to make the transition to sustainability. This paper reviews global scenario research, setting current efforts in a historical context. It focuses on seven recent studies that are comprehensive, regionally disaggregated, and narratively rich—and thus of greatest relevance to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA). It summarizes their social visions and the level of quantitative detail used in these exercises. Taken together, this suite of global scenario studies provides a useful platform for the MA by offering insight into the complex factors that drive ecosystem change, estimating the magnitude of regional pressures on ecosystems, sounding the alert on critical uncertainties that could undermine sustainable development, and understanding the importance of institutions and values. But these studies are only a point of departure. The integration of changing ecosystem conditions into global development scenarios, as both effects and causes, is at the cutting edge of scenario analysis. The paper concludes by identifying directions for this research program and suggesting ways that the MA can contribute to this effort.     

The value of biodiversity experiments

Recent biodiversity experiments have investigated the relationship between diversity and ecosystem functioning by synthesizing plant communities from pools of species that have been experimentally manipulated to vary numbers and types of species present while holding abiotic factors constant. Biodiversity experiments therefore focus on a previously under-explored aspect of global change: the feedback from diversity to environment. Consequences of random manipulation of species communities may not correspond well to those of specific extinction sequences observed in the past in response to extinction drivers that cause highly non-random loss. However, random manipulation provides a good starting point given that existing communities could undergo many alternative orders of species loss in the future in response to a variety of different potential extinction drivers. Further, the effects of some extinction drivers are currently poorly understood and therefore difficult to predict (e.g. climate change) and it may be premature to dismiss the predictions of random scenarios as irrelevant to all real examples of species loss. The first generations of biodiversity experiments have provided valuable, and sometimes unexpected, discoveries about the general nature of the relationship between diversity and ecosystem functioning. These discoveries could not have been made using observational studies. We propose that different examples of extinction loss in the real or a potential future world form a continuum from situations where the results of the first-generation biodiversity experiments will be highly relevant to less relevant. At the one extreme are examples where the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning will be overwhelmed by direct effects of the extinction driver on processes (e.g. chronic eutrophication). At the other extreme are situations where ecosystem processes are not strongly affected by direct effects of the extinction driver and where the effects of species loss on functioning may be more important (e.g. habitat fragmentation). Given the unprecedented uncertainty about the future of biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems, a general approach with randomly varying species pools was the right place to start in order to provide a general foundation. The new challenge is to test for effects of biodiversity on functioning in real-world examples of species loss.

Zusammenfassung

Biodiversitätsversuche zeichnen sich dadurch aus, dass natürliche Artenpools experimentell reduziert werden und anschließend der Zusammenhang zwischen der Artenzahl und Ökosystemfunktionen unter konstanten abiotischen Umweltbedingungen untersucht wird. Dadurch unterscheiden sich Biodiversitätsexperimente grundsätzlich von anderen Versuchen, die die Biodiversität als Zielvariable behandeln und stattdessen die abiotische Umwelt manipulieren. Die Auswahl der Arten für die reduzierten Artenpools in Biodiversitätsexperimenten erfolgte bisher meist zufällig, während natürliche Aussterbefaktoren wie Eutrophierung nicht alle Arten gleichermassen gefährden. Für verschiedene Aussterbefaktoren ist aber so wenig bekannt, dass ein zufälliges Aussterbeszenario die beste gegenwärtig verfügbare Option ist. Dies trifft insbesondere für mögliche zukünftige Aussterbeprozesse zu, die durch globale Umweltveränderungen (Klima, biologische Invasionen) oder Habitatsfragmentierung ausgelöst werden könnten. Die erste Generation von Biodiversitätsexperimenten mit zufälligen Aussterbeszenarien hat wertvolle, teilweise unerwartete, generelle Zusammenhänge zwischen Artenzahl und Ökosystemfunktionen aufgedeckt. Diese Zusammenhänge ließen sich durch vergleichende Studien nicht erkennen. In Zukunft sollten Biodiversitätsexperimente dennoch vermehrt Aussterbeszenarien simulieren, die in der realen Umwelt mit größter Wahrscheinlichkeit auftreten.     

辽河三角洲滨海湿地景观规划各预案对指示物种生境适宜性的影响

运用景观生态决策与评价支持系统（LEDESS）对辽河三角洲的3个景观规划预案,即湿地调整,生境管理和农业开发可能导致的地表覆盖物,自然生态单元等立地环境以及保护物种生境适宜性等区域生态后果进行了评估,并与现状进行了对比,模拟结果表明,预案A通过湿地调整措施不仅补偿了芦苇湿地的损失,还将部分不适宜生境和边境生境转变核心生境,相当程度上优化了保护物种丹顶鹤和黑嘴鸥的生境质量,预案B通过一系列生境管理措施,减轻了生境破碎化因素的影响,从而也显著改善了丹顶鹤生境质量,对黑嘴鸥生境质量也有一定改善,预宁C大规模农业开发如能控制一定规模（8000hm2)并采取一定合理模式（滚动开发）,能相当程度上减轻农业开发对物种生境的影响,即使不采取生境补偿措施,对丹顶鹤,黑嘴鸥核心生境也不会有破坏性的影响,模拟结果还表明,区域人类活动导致的生境破碎化是对丹顶鹤生境质量重要的干扰因子,而滩涂农业开发和水产养殖强烈地干扰了涂植被正常的演替过程,从而影响着黑嘴鸥等滩涂鸟类的生境适宜性。     

Modelling the predicted geographic and economic response of UK cropping systems to climate change scenarios: the case of potatoes

Geographical changes in suitability in England and Wales for the cultivation of potatoes under a climate change scenario were predicted for the years 2023 and 2065 by integrating a climate database (1951-80) with climate-driven crop growth models. Initially, model outputs were produced as point values (meteorological site locations) of predicted potential yields for current crop production. The model outputs were validated statistically using actual crop yield figures collated from bibliographic analysis. The most suitable model was run again incorporating projected temperature and precipitation changes for 2023 and 2065. These outputs were then used to predict possible economic changes to farm profitability and general market trends. Results indicated that, although yields may rise, gross margins for maincrop and especially early potatoes may also rise due to shifts in production, to a fall in overall potato output and to price increases.     

Global climate change increases risk of crop yield losses and food insecurity in the tropical Andes

One of the greatest current challenges to human society is ensuring adequate food production and security for a rapidly growing population under changing climatic conditions. Climate change, and specifically rising temperatures, will alter the suitability of areas for specific crops and cultivation systems. In order to maintain yields, farmers may be forced to change cultivation practices, the timing of cultivation, or even the type of crops grown. Alternatively, farmers can change the location where crops are cultivated (e.g., to higher elevations) to track suitable climates (in which case the plants will have to grow in different soils), as cultivated plants will otherwise have to tolerate warmer temperatures and possibly face novel enemies. We simulated these two last possible scenarios (for temperature increases of 1.3°C and 2.6°C) in the Peruvian Andes through a field experiment in which several traditionally grown varieties of potato and maize were planted at different elevations (and thus temperatures) using either the local soil or soil translocated from higher elevations. Maize production declined by 21%–29% in response to new soil conditions. The production of maize and potatoes declined by >87% when plants were grown under warmer temperatures, mainly as a result of the greater incidence of novel pests. Crop quality and value also declined under simulated migration and warming scenarios. We estimated that local farmers may experience severe economic losses of up to 2,300 USOne of the greatest current challenges to human society is ensuring adequate food production and security for a rapidly growing population under changing climatic conditions. Climate change, and specifically rising temperatures, will alter the suitability of areas for specific crops and cultivation systems. In order to maintain yields, farmers may be forced to change cultivation practices, the timing of cultivation, or even the type of crops grown. Alternatively, farmers can change the location where crops are cultivated (e.g., to higher elevations) to track suitable climates (in which case the plants will have to grow in different soils), as cultivated plants will otherwise have to tolerate warmer temperatures and possibly face novel enemies. We simulated these two last possible scenarios (for temperature increases of 1.3°C and 2.6°C) in the Peruvian Andes through a field experiment in which several traditionally grown varieties of potato and maize were planted at different elevations (and thus temperatures) using either the local soil or soil translocated from higher elevations. Maize production declined by 21%–29% in response to new soil conditions. The production of maize and potatoes declined by >87% when plants were grown under warmer temperatures, mainly as a result of the greater incidence of novel pests. Crop quality and value also declined under simulated migration and warming scenarios. We estimated that local farmers may experience severe economic losses of up to 2,300 US$ ha^?1 yr^?1. These findings reveal that climate change is a real and imminent threat to agriculture and that there is a pressing need to develop effective management strategies to reduce yield losses and prevent food insecurity. Importantly, such strategies should take into account the influences of non‐climatic and/or biotic factors (e.g., novel pests) on plant development.