Keeping up with a warming world; assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change

The pivotal question in the debate on the ecological effects of climate change is whether species will be able to adapt fast enough to keep up with their changing environment. If we establish the maximal rate of adaptation, this will set an upper limit to the rate at which temperatures can increase without loss of biodiversity.The rate of adaptation will primarily be set by the rate of microevolution since (i) phenotypic plasticity alone is not sufficient as reaction norms will no longer be adaptive and hence microevolution on the reaction norm is needed, (ii) learning will be favourable to the individual but cannot be passed on to the next generations, (iii) maternal effects may play a role but, as with other forms of phenotypic plasticity, the response of offspring to the maternal cues will no longer be adaptive in a changing environment, and (iv) adaptation via immigration of individuals with genotypes adapted to warmer environments also involves microevolution as these genotypes are better adapted in terms of temperature, but not in terms of, for instance, photoperiod.Long-term studies on wild populations with individually known animals play an essential role in detecting and understanding the temporal trends in life-history traits, and to estimate the heritability of, and selection pressures on, life-history traits. However, additional measurements on other trophic levels and on the mechanisms underlying phenotypic plasticity are needed to predict the rate of microevolution, especially under changing conditions.Using this knowledge on heritability of, and selection on, life-history traits, in combination with climate scenarios, we will be able to predict the rate of adaptation for different climate scenarios. The final step is to use ecoevolutionary dynamical models to make the link to population viability and from there to biodiversity loss for those scenarios where the rate of adaptation is insufficient.     

Assessment of the effects of environmental change on the performance and density of Bistorta vivipara: the use of multivariate analysis and experimental manipulation

1 Studies of plant performance in relation to local variability in environmental conditions can be used to predict the responses of species to environmental change.
2 We used redundancy analysis to study how interpopulation variation in average plant weight, flower and bulbil number, bulbil weight and population density among 28 populations of Bistorta vivipara was related to variation in 15 environmental factors. We also examined the responses of plants to a 4-year experimental increase in temperature.
3 Significant differences in average plant performance were found between populations. Variance partitioning of the response data showed that environmental factors explained 45% of the variation in plant performance and density between populations, whereas variation due to transect position was small (10.8%). Soil pH, altitude and season length were the most influential of the environmental variables, and explained 23%, 21% and 14%, respectively, of the variation. Plant performance was in general negatively correlated with these variables, whereas plant density increased along the pH and altitude gradients, suggesting that environmental factors associated with elevation (temperature and vegetation cover) and pH (soil fertility) had opposing effects on individual performance and density. Season length was highly important for average bulbil weight.
4 Plants growing in open top chambers had significantly enhanced growth and produced significantly heavier bulbils than those in control plots, whereas flower and bulbil number were unaffected by experimentally increased temperatures. Plant density was equal for warmed and control plots.
5 Although warming may increase bulbil weight and plant size in B. vivipara , the response to climate change is complicated by the fact that population densities may decrease due to intensified competition for light caused by a denser vegetation cover.     

Responses of population structure and genomic diversity to climate change and fishing pressure in a pelagic fish

The responses of marine species to environmental changes and anthropogenic pressures (e.g., fishing) interact with ecological and evolutionary processes that are not well understood. Knowledge of changes in the distribution range and genetic diversity of species and their populations into the future is essential for the conservation and sustainable management of resources. Almaco jack (Seriola rivoliana) is a pelagic fish with high importance to fisheries and aquaculture in the Pacific Ocean. In this study, we assessed contemporary genomic diversity and structure in loci that are putatively under selection (outlier loci) and determined their potential functions. Using a combination of genotype–environment association, spatial distribution models, and demogenetic simulations, we modeled the effects of climate change (under three different RCP scenarios) and fishing pressure on the species' geographic distribution and genomic diversity and structure to 2050 and 2100. Our results show that most of the outlier loci identified were related to biological and metabolic processes that may be associated with temperature and salinity. The contemporary genomic structure showed three populations—two in the Eastern Pacific (Cabo San Lucas and Eastern Pacific) and one in the Central Pacific (Hawaii). Future projections suggest a loss of suitable habitat and potential range contractions for most scenarios, while fishing pressure decreased population connectivity. Our results suggest that future climate change scenarios and fishing pressure will affect the genomic structure and genotypic composition of S. rivoliana and lead to loss of genomic diversity in populations distributed in the eastern-central Pacific Ocean, which could have profound effects on fisheries that depend on this resource.     

Global environmental costs of China's thirst for milk

China has an ever‐increasing thirst for milk, with a predicted 3.2‐fold increase in demand by 2050 compared to the production level in 2010. What are the environmental implications of meeting this demand, and what is the preferred pathway? We addressed these questions by using a nexus approach, to examine the interdependencies of increasing milk consumption in China by 2050 and its global impacts, under different scenarios of domestic milk production and importation. Meeting China's milk demand in a business as usual scenario will increase global dairy‐related (China and the leading milk exporting regions) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 35% (from 565 to 764 Tg CO_2eq) and land use for dairy feed production by 32% (from 84 to 111 million ha) compared to 2010, while reactive nitrogen losses from the dairy sector will increase by 48% (from 3.6 to 5.4 Tg nitrogen). Producing all additional milk in China with current technology will greatly increase animal feed import; from 1.9 to 8.5 Tg for concentrates and from 1.0 to 6.2 Tg for forage (alfalfa). In addition, it will increase domestic dairy related GHG emissions by 2.2 times compared to 2010 levels. Importing the extra milk will transfer the environmental burden from China to milk exporting countries; current dairy exporting countries may be unable to produce all additional milk due to physical limitations or environmental preferences/legislation. For example, the farmland area for cattle‐feed production in New Zealand would have to increase by more than 57% (1.3 million ha) and that in Europe by more than 39% (15 million ha), while GHG emissions and nitrogen losses would increase roughly proportionally with the increase of farmland in both regions. We propose that a more sustainable dairy future will rely on high milk demanding regions (such as China) improving their domestic milk and feed production efficiencies up to the level of leading milk producing countries. This will decrease the global dairy related GHG emissions and land use by 12% (90 Tg CO_2eq reduction) and 30% (34 million ha land reduction) compared to the business as usual scenario, respectively. However, this still represents an increase in total GHG emissions of 19% whereas land use will decrease by 8% when compared with 2010 levels, respectively.     

Complex effect of projected sea temperature and wind change on flatfish dispersal

Climate change not only alters ocean physics and chemistry but also affects the biota. Larval dispersal patterns from spawning to nursery grounds and larval survival are driven by hydrodynamic processes and shaped by (a)biotic environmental factors. Therefore, it is important to understand the impacts of increased temperature rise and changes in wind speed and direction on larval drift and survival. We apply a particle‐tracking model coupled to a 3D‐hydrodynamic model of the English Channel and the North Sea to study the dispersal dynamics of the exploited flatfish (common) sole (Solea solea). We first assess model robustness and interannual variability in larval transport over the period 1995–2011. Then, using a subset of representative years (2003–2011), we investigate the impact of climate change on larval dispersal, connectivity patterns and recruitment at the nursery grounds. The impacts of five scenarios inspired by the 2040 projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are discussed and compared with interannual variability. The results suggest that 33% of the year‐to‐year recruitment variability is explained at a regional scale and that a 9‐year period is sufficient to capture interannual variability in dispersal dynamics. In the scenario involving a temperature increase, early spawning and a wind change, the model predicts that (i) dispersal distance (+70%) and pelagic larval duration (+22%) will increase in response to the reduced temperature (?9%) experienced by early hatched larvae, (ii) larval recruitment at the nursery grounds will increase in some areas (36%) and decrease in others (?58%) and (iii) connectivity will show contrasting changes between areas. At the regional scale, our model predicts considerable changes in larval recruitment (+9%) and connectivity (retention ?4% and seeding +37%) due to global change. All of these factors affect the distribution and productivity of sole and therefore the functioning of the demersal ecosystem and fisheries management.     

Combining point‐process and landscape vegetation models to predict large herbivore distributions in space and time—A case study of Rupicapra rupicapra

Aim

When modelling the distribution of animals under current and future conditions, both their response to environmental constraints and their resources’ response to these environmental constraints need to be taken into account. Here, we develop a framework to predict the distribution of large herbivores under global change, while accounting for changes in their main resources. We applied it to Rupicapra rupicapra, the chamois of the European Alps.

Location

The Bauges Regional Park (French Alps).

Methods

We built sixteen plant functional groups (PFGs) that account for the chamois’ diet (estimated from sequenced environmental DNA found in the faeces), climatic requirements, dispersal limitations, successional stage and interaction for light. These PFGs were then simulated using a dynamic vegetation model, under current and future climatic conditions up to 2100. Finally, we modelled the spatial distribution of the chamois under both current and future conditions using a point‐process model applied to either climate‐only variables or climate and simulated vegetation structure variables.

Results

Both the climate‐only and the climate and vegetation models successfully predicted the current distribution of the chamois species. However, when applied into the future, the predictions differed widely. While the climate‐only models predicted an 80% decrease in total species occupancy, including vegetation structure and plant resources for chamois in the model provided more optimistic predictions because they account for the transient dynamics of the vegetation (?20% in species occupancy).

Main conclusions

Applying our framework to the chamois shows that the inclusion of ecological mechanisms (i.e., plant resources) produces more realistic predictions under current conditions and should prove useful for anticipating future impacts. We have shown that discounting the pure effects of vegetation on chamois might lead to overpessimistic predictions under climate change. Our approach paves the way for improved synergies between different fields to produce biodiversity scenarios.

     

The cost of ad hoc reservation: A case study in western New South Wales

Abstract We reviewed the literature on the practice of reservation in Australia over the past few decades. We found that reserves have generally been dedicated for expedient or opportunistic reasons and that they tend to protect the environments with least potential for commercial land uses. Ad hoc reservation has two main disadvantages: the environments most in need of strict reservation are not effectively protected; and natural diversity is represented inefficiently in terms of features per unit reserve area. We demonstrate the second disadvantage with quantitative comparisons of alternative reservation scenarios in the Western Division of New South Wales. These show that a continuation of ad hoc acquisition of reserves will continue to increase the land area needed to represent all natural environments and so reduce the likelihood of achieving a representative reserve system.     

基于分布式水文模型和福利成本法的生态补偿空间选择研究

空间选择是生态补偿研究的核心问题之一,选择合理的区域进行生态补偿有利于提高生态补偿项目的效率.以黑河流域上游肃南县为研究区域,运用分布式水文模型Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)对研究区实施生态补偿后的水源涵养增加量进行模拟,同时考虑土地利用类型转化成本以及生态系统服务丧失风险,采用福利成本法对研究区生态补偿空间选择进行研究.结果表明:黑河上游肃南段内不同子流域的生态补偿效率系数最高值为0.0394,最低值0.0131,相差明显;根据效率系数,采用聚类分析方法,可将各子流域划分为优先补偿区、次级优先补偿区和潜在补偿区,分批进行补偿;采用空间选择后生态补偿效率较不采用时可提高54.5％.     

医疗机构信息辅助提示对医保拒付的影响探讨

医保信息化建设是推进公立医院信息化建设的重要内容之一,对于提升医保管理水平、优化服务路径、改善参保患者就医体验等方面具备重要意义。以北京大学肿瘤医院为例,介绍医保身份识别、医保处方提示、特种病标识、医保绩效考核等多方面辅助提示的功能,分析医保信息辅助提示在保障低水平拒付率、提升工作效率的作用机制,为医疗机构数字化建设提供参考,为其他兄弟医院作借鉴。