Mendel’s law reveals fatal flaws in Bateman’s 1948 study of mating and fitness

Bateman’s experimental study of Drosophila melanogaster produced conclusions that are now part of the bedrock premises of modern sexual selection. Today it is the most cited experimental study in sexual selection, and famous as the first experimental demonstration of sex differences in the relationship between number of mates and relative reproductive success. We repeated the experimental methodology of the original to evaluate its reliability. The results indicate that Bateman’s methodology of visible mutations to assign parentage and reproductive success to subject adults is significantly biased. When combined in offspring, the mutations decrease offspring survival, so that counts of mate number and reproductive success are mismeasured. Bateman’s method overestimates the number of subjects with no mates and underestimates the number with one or more mates for both sexes. Here we discuss why Bateman’s paper is important and present additional analyses of data from our monogamy trials. Monogamy trials can inform inferences about the force of sexual selection in populations because in monogamy trials male–male competition and female choice are absent. Monogamy trials also would have provided Bateman with an a priori test of the fit of his data to Mendel’s laws, an unstated, but vital assumption of his methodology for assigning parentage from which he inferred the number of mates per individual subject and their reproductive success. Even under enforced monogamous mating, offspring frequencies of double mutant, single mutant and no mutant offspring were significantly different from Mendelian expectations proving that Bateman’s method was inappropriate for answering the questions he posed. Double mutant offspring (those with a mutation from each parent) suffered significant inviability as did single mutant offspring whenever they inherited their mother’s marker but the wild-type allele at their father’s marker locus. These inviability effects produced two important inaccuracies in Bateman’s results and conclusions. (1) Some matings that actually occurred were invisible and (2) reproductive success of some mothers was under-estimated. Both observations show that Bateman’s conclusions about sex differences in number of mates and reproductive success were unwarranted, based on biased observations. We speculate about why Bateman’s classic study remained without replication for so long, and we discuss why repetition almost 60 years after the original is still timely, necessary and critical to the scientific enterprise. We highlight overlooked alternative hypotheses to urge that modern tests of Bateman’s conclusions go beyond confirmatory studies to test alternative hypotheses to explain the relationship between mate number and reproductive success.     

Are Sage-Grouse Fine-Scale Specialists or Shrub-Steppe Generalists?

Sage-grouse (Centrocercus spp.) are influencing rapidly evolving land management policy in the western United States. Management objectives for fine-scale vegetation characteristics (e.g., grass height >18 cm) have been adopted by land management agencies based on resource selection or relationships with fitness proxies reported among numerous habitat studies. Some managers, however, have questioned the appropriateness of these objectives. Moreover, it remains untested whether habitat–fitness relationships documented at fine scales (i.e., among individual nests within a study area) also apply at scales of management units (e.g., pastures or grazing allotments), which are many orders of magnitude larger. We employed meta-analyses of studies published from 1991 to 2019 to help resolve the role of fine-scale vegetation structure in nest site selection and nest success across the geographic range of greater sage-grouse (C. urophasianus) and evaluate the validity of established habitat management objectives. Specifically, we incorporated effects of study design and functional responses to resource availability in meta-regression models linking vegetation structure to nest site selection, and used a novel meta-analytic approach to simultaneously model vegetation structure and its relationship to nest success. Our approach tested habitat relationships at a range-wide extent and a grain size closely matching scales at which agencies make management decisions. We found moderate, but context-dependent, effects of shrub characteristics and weak effects of herbaceous vegetation on nest site selection. None of the tested vegetation characteristics were related to variation in nest success, suggesting nesting habitat–fitness relationships have been inappropriately extrapolated in developing range-wide habitat management objectives. Our findings reveal surprising flexibility in habitat use for a species often depicted as having very particular fine-scale habitat requirements, and cast doubt on the practice of adopting precise management objectives for vegetation structure based on findings of individual small-scale field studies. © 2020 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

Adjustment for exploratory cut-off selection in randomized clinical trials with survival endpoint

Defining the target population based on predictive biomarkers plays an important role during clinical development. After establishing a relationship between a biomarker candidate and response to treatment in exploratory phases, a subsequent confirmatory trial ideally involves only subjects with high potential of benefiting from the new compound. In order to identify those subjects in case of a continuous biomarker, a cut-off is needed. Usually, a cut-off is chosen that resulted in a subgroup with a large observed treatment effect in an exploratory trial. However, such a data-driven selection may lead to overoptimistic expectations for the subsequent confirmatory trial. Treatment effect estimates, probability of success, and posterior probabilities are useful measures for deciding whether or not to conduct a confirmatory trial enrolling the biomarker-defined population. These measures need to be adjusted for selection bias. We extend previously introduced Approximate Bayesian Computation techniques for adjustment of subgroup selection bias to a time-to-event setting with cut-off selection. Challenges in this setting are that treatment effects become time-dependent and that subsets are defined by the biomarker distribution. Simulation studies show that the proposed method provides adjusted statistical measures which are superior to naïve Maximum Likelihood estimators as well as simple shrinkage estimators.     

Mathematical modelling and computer simulation of Brownian motion and hybridisation of nanoparticle–bioprobe–polymer complexes in the low concentration limit

A wide variety of nano-biotechnological applications are being developed for nanoparticles based on in vitro diagnostic and imaging systems. Some of these systems allow highly sensitive detection of molecular biomarkers. Frequently, the very low concentration of the biomarkers makes very difficult the mathematical simulation of the motion of nanoparticles based on classical, partial differential equations. We address the issue of incubation times for low concentration systems using Monte Carlo simulations. We describe a mathematical model and computer simulation of Brownian motion of nanoparticle–bioprobe–polymer contrast agent complexes and their hybridisation to immobilised targets. We present results for the dependence of incubation times on the number of particles available for detection, and the geometric layout of the DNA-detection assay on the chip.     

9. LIST OF MEMBERS (as at date of publication)

We studied the breeding ecology of the Chestnut-backed Sparrowlark Eremopterix leucotis over three years between 2008 and 2010. The breeding season was bimodal with a main peak in laying in autumn (March–April) and another smaller peak in spring (September–October). Nest microhabitat analyses showed they prefer nesting in open areas with lots of bare ground (median 67.5%). Nest entrance directions were biased towards the south (mean vector (µ) = 186.44°). The majority of nests (78.2%) had an apron at the nest entrance. The mean clutch size was 1.88 but there was geographic variation in clutch size between northern and southern races of the species. The mean incubation and nestling periods were 10.33 d (range 10–11 d) and 9.20 d (range 8–10 d), respectively. The results suggest that parental contributions during incubation are almost equal, but females made significantly more food deliveries during the nestling period compared to males. The diet of nestlings comprised mainly of invertebrates (50.2%), seeds (34.4%) and unidentified food items (15.4%). Breeding success was low, averaging 16.1% (range 8.1–20.6%), and the average number of fledged young per pair was 0.36 ± 0.71. Replacement broods were common and we also recorded repeat brooding attempts.     

Joint distribution of first exit times of a two dimensional Wiener process with jumps with application to a pair of coupled neurons

Motivated by a neuronal modeling problem, a bivariate Wiener process with two independent components is considered. Each component evolves independently until one of them reaches a threshold value. If the first component crosses the threshold value, it is reset while the dynamics of the other component remains unchanged. But, if this happens to the second component, the first one has a jump of constant amplitude; the second component is then reset to its starting value and its evolution restarts. Both processes evolve once again until one of them reaches again its boundary. In this work, the coupling of the first exit times of the two connected processes is studied.     

Dramatic changes in the return date of Guillemots Uria aalge to colonies in Shetland, 1962–2005

Capsule Changes in return date coincided with marked changes in population size that probably resulted in fluctuating competition for nest-sites.

Aims To document the changes in return dates over a 44-year period and to identify the factors associated with these changes.

Methods We compared changes in return date at Shetland colonies with those for the Isle of May, southeast Scotland, and with the available information on population size, the abundance of some fish species eaten by Common Guillemots and large-scale changes in the oceanography and climate of the eastern Atlantic as reflected by the winter index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

Results Common Guillemots normally return to colonies in Shetland in late winter. However, during the 1960s return dates became gradually earlier with birds present from early October. Autumn return remained the norm for about ten years after which return dates gradually reverted back to late winter. In contrast, Common Guillemots on the Isle of May, 400 km south of Shetland, showed no marked shift, returning in October each year. There was a strong negative correlation between date of return of Shetland birds and population size, whereas on the Isle of May birds came back earlier when there was a large positive winter NAO index. There was no convincing evidence that changes in wintering areas or fish abundance influenced when birds returned to the colonies, although the fish data may not have been collected on the correct spatial scale.

Conclusion Competition for high quality nest-sites is the most likely reason for Common Guillemots returning to the colonies during the autumn and winter.     

Effect of climate change on breeding phenology,clutch size and chick survival of an upland bird

Upland birds are predicted to be particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, yet few studies have examined these effects on their breeding phenology and productivity. Laying dates of Red Grouse Lagopus lagopus scotica in the Scottish Highlands advanced by 0.5 days/year between 1992 and 2011 and were inversely correlated with pre‐laying temperature, with a near‐significant increase in temperature over this period. Earlier clutches were larger and chick survival was greater in earlier nesting attempts. However, chick survival was also higher in years with lower May temperatures and lower August temperatures in the previous year, the latter probably related to prey abundance in the subsequent breeding season. Although laying dates are advancing, climate change does not currently appear to be having an overall effect on chick survival of Red Grouse within the climate range recorded in this study.     

Mhc‐linked survival and lifetime reproductive success in a wild population of great tits

Major histocompatibility complex (Mhc) genes are frequently used as a model for adaptive genetic diversity. Although associations between Mhc and disease resistance are frequently documented, little is known about the fitness consequences of Mhc variation in wild populations. Further, most work to date has involved testing associations between Mhc genotypes and fitness components. However, the functional diversity of the Mhc, and hence the mechanism by which selection on Mhc acts, depends on how genotypes map to the functional properties of Mhc molecules. Here, we test three hypotheses that relate Mhc diversity to fitness: (i) the maximal diversity hypothesis, (ii) the optimal diversity hypothesis and (iii) effect of specific Mhc types. We combine mark–recapture methods with analysis of long‐term breeding data to investigate the effects of Mhc class I functional diversity (Mhc supertypes) on individual fitness in a wild great tit (Parus major) population. We found that the presence of three different Mhc supertypes was associated with three different components of individual fitness: survival, annual recruitment and lifetime reproductive success (LRS). Great tits possessing Mhc supertype 3 experienced higher survival rates than those that did not, whereas individuals with Mhc supertype 6 experienced higher LRS and were more likely to recruit offspring each year. Conversely, great tits that possessed Mhc supertype 5 had reduced LRS. We found no evidence for a selective advantage of Mhc diversity, in terms of either maximal or optimal supertype diversity. Our results support the suggestion that specific Mhc types are an important determinant of individual fitness.     

Bayesian parentage analysis reliably controls the number of false assignments in natural populations

Parentage analysis in natural populations is a powerful tool for addressing a wide range of ecological and evolutionary questions. However, identifying parent–offspring pairs in samples collected from natural populations is often more challenging than simply resolving the Mendelian pattern of shared alleles. For example, large numbers of pairwise comparisons and limited numbers of genetic markers can contribute to incorrect assignments, whereby unrelated individuals are falsely identified as parent–offspring pairs. Determining which parentage methods are the least susceptible to making false assignments is an important challenge facing molecular ecologists. In a recent paper, Harrison et al. (2013a) address this challenge by comparing three commonly used parentage methods, including a Bayesian approach, in order to explore the effects of varied proportions of sampled parents on the accuracy of parentage assignments. Unfortunately, Harrison et al. made a simple error in using the Bayesian approach, which led them to incorrectly conclude that this method could not control the rate of false assignment. Here, I briefly outline the basic principles behind the Bayesian approach, identify the error made by Harrison et al., and provide detailed guidelines as to how the method should be correctly applied. Furthermore, using the exact data from Harrison et al., I show that the Bayesian approach actually provides greater control over the number of false assignments than either of the other tested methods. Lastly, I conclude with a brief introduction to solomon , a recently updated version of the Bayesian approach that can account for genotyping error, missing data and false matching.