Looking into the past – the reaction of three grouse species to climate change over the last million years using whole genome sequences

Tracking past population fluctuations can give insight into current levels of genetic variation present within species. Analysing population dynamics over larger timescales can be aligned to known climatic changes to determine the response of species to varying environments. Here, we applied the Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (psmc ) model to infer past population dynamics of three widespread grouse species; black grouse, willow grouse and rock ptarmigan. This allowed the tracking of the effective population size (N_e) of all three species beyond 1 Mya, revealing that (i) early Pleistocene cooling (~2.5 Mya) caused an increase in the willow grouse and rock ptarmigan populations, (ii) the mid‐Brunhes event (~430 kya) and following climatic oscillations decreased the N_e of willow grouse and rock ptarmigan, but increased the N_e of black grouse and (iii) all three species reacted differently to the last glacial maximum (LGM) – black grouse increased prior to it, rock ptarmigan experienced a severe bottleneck and willow grouse was maintained at large population size. We postulate that the varying psmc signal throughout the LGM depicts only the local history of the species. Nevertheless, the large population fluctuations in willow grouse and rock ptarmigan indicate that both species are opportunistic breeders while black grouse tracks the climatic changes more slowly and is maintained at lower N_e. Our results highlight the usefulness of the psmc approach in investigating species’ reaction to climate change in the deep past, but also that caution should be taken in drawing general conclusions about the recent past.     

Morphological and molecular investigation of polymorphism and cryptic species in tanaid crustaceans: implications for tanaid systematics and biodiversity estimates

A combination of traditional taxonomic procedures and molecular techniques has provided new insight into the problems of cryptic species and sexual and ontogenetic polymorphism in the Tanaidacea. Using polymerase chain reaction and DNA markers, three cryptic species of Paratanais were identified. PCR primers were used to amplify the divergent internal transcribed spacers (ITS) of these species. Restriction digestion of the amplified rDNA generated species specific DNA banding. Male and five female stages of Paratanais maleticus sp. nov. and two other new species, P. malign us and P. perturbatius , are described. Morphological variation, both sexual and ontogenetic, was found in several generic characters of Paratanais and required the diagnosis to be modified. The identification of three undescribed cryptic species from a single microhabitat in a well studied, shallow water and easily accessible locality, demonstrate that the biodiversity of tanaid crustacean is significantly underestimated.     

INBREEDING DEPRESSION IN TWO MIMULUS TAXA MEASURED BY MULTIGENERATIONAL CHANGES IN THE INBREEDING COEFFICIENT

In mixed-mating plant populations, one can estimate the relative fitness of selfed progeny w by measuring the inbreeding coefficient F and selfing rate s of adults of one generation, together with F of adults in the following generation (after selection). In the first application of this multigenerational method, we estimated F and s for adults over three consecutive generations in adjacent populations of two annual Mimulus taxa: the outbreeding M. guttatus and the inbreeding M. platycalyx. This gave estimates of w for the last two generations. Although average multilocus selfing rates were high in both taxa (0.63 in M. guttatus; 0.84 in M. platycalyx), the relative fitness of selfed progeny averaged only 0.19 in M. guttatus and 0.32 in M. platycalyx. An alternative estimator for w that incorporates biparental inbreeding gave even lower estimates of w. These values are significantly below the 0.5 threshold thought to favor selfing, and show that partially selfing populations can harbor substantial genetic load. In accordance with the purging hypothesis, the more highly selfing M. platycalyx showed marginally lower inbreeding depression than M. guttatus in both years (P = 0.08). Inbreeding depression and selfing rates also varied among years in concert among taxa. Several sources of bias are discussed, but computer simulations indicate it is unlikely that w is biased downwards by linkage of marker loci to load loci.     

Estimation of Black Bear Abundance Using a Discrete DNA Sampling Device

Abstract We developed a snare for collection of black bear (Ursus americanus) hair that obtained a unique hair sample at each snare site, improved the quantity of collected hair compared to barbed-wire corrals, and was easy to deploy over a wide range of topographical features and habitat conditions. This device allowed us to implement intensive sampling methodology needed in mark-recapture experiments with minimal effort. By improving the quantity of hair collected, we also lowered the potential for bear identification errors at the lab. During 2003–2004, bears in 2 study areas triggered snares 1,104 times, which resulted in the collection of 981 hair samples. Of the samples we collected, 79% (775) produced valid genetic data. In 2003, 454 samples identified 79 genetically distinct individuals, and 321 samples identified 86 genetically distinct individuals in 2004. Analysis of capture-recapture data indicated that capture probabilities were affected by heterogeneity among individuals and behavioral responses, but showed little evidence of time effects. Consequently, we used the Pollock and Otto (1983) estimator for model M_bh to estimate abundance with reasonably good precision (CV: 12–14%). Density on the Steamboat and Toketee, Oregon, USA, study areas over the 2-year period averaged 19 bears/100 km² and 22 bears/100 km², respectively. Average capture and recapture probabilities over the 2 years of the study were 30% and 63%, respectively, indicating a trap-prone behavioral response. Knowledge of bear densities on the Steamboat and Toketee study areas will enable managers to set hunting quotas, advise land management agencies on habitat issues, and create a baseline database to assist in the long-term monitoring of bear trends in a changing landscape.     

Statistical methods for model comparison in parameter estimation problems for distributed systems

In this note we outline some recent results on the development of a statistical testing methodology for inverse problems involving partial differential equation models. Applications to several problems from biology are presented. The statistical tests, which are in the spirit of analysis of variance (ANOVA), are based on asymptotic distributional results for estimators and residuals in a least squares approach.Research supported in part under grants NSF MCS 8504316, NASA NAG-1-517, and AFOSRF-49620-86-C-0111. Part of this research was carried out while the first author was a visiting scientist at the Institute for Computer Applications in Science and Engineering (ICASE), NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, which is operated under NASA contracts NASI-18107 and NASI-18605     

Noncancer risk assessment of arsenic safe and unsafe water uses: Bayesian estimation on cohort study

Cancer and noncancer risk of arsenic exposure depends on arsenic intake through drinking water and diets. The present study evaluated the probability of noncancer effects of arsenic exposure from drinking water and diets in a cohort of 82 participants in arsenic-endemic rural areas, considering arsenic-safe and arsenic-unsafe water uses for three consecutive years. The risk assessment included the collection of last 24 hours' diet replica and urine of the participants followed by total arsenic analysis of the same. Toxic dose emerging from exposure duration is a nonlinear variable. So, Bayesian estimation of the data for noncancer risk assessment of the variable arsenic consumption was performed. In spite of using arsenic-safe water, we observed arsenic consumption and release. Participants with skin lesions had more arsenic in urine than participants without skin lesions. Future risk for participants without skin lesions was twice due to less arsenic release in urine. For the first time, Bayesian simulation was used to assess noncancer risk on a cohort for a consecutive three-year study. A significant finding was the higher assessed noncancer risk of the participants without skin lesions than the participants with skin lesions.     

Network-based diffusion analysis: a new method for detecting social learning

Social learning has been documented in a wide diversity of animals. In free-living animals, however, it has been difficult to discern whether animals learn socially by observing other group members or asocially by acquiring a new behaviour independently. We addressed this challenge by developing network-based diffusion analysis (NBDA), which analyses the spread of traits through animal groups and takes into account that social network structure directs social learning opportunities. NBDA fits agent-based models of social and asocial learning to the observed data using maximum-likelihood estimation. The underlying learning mechanism can then be identified using model selection based on the Akaike information criterion. We tested our method with artificially created learning data that are based on a real-world co-feeding network of macaques. NBDA is better able to discriminate between social and asocial learning in comparison with diffusion curve analysis, the main method that was previously applied in this context. NBDA thus offers a new, more reliable statistical test of learning mechanisms. In addition, it can be used to address a wide range of questions related to social learning, such as identifying behavioural strategies used by animals when deciding whom to copy.